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MikeO

Rest Of The Season

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Pretty much two thirds of the way through the season we've reached the forty points that not so long ago was the extent of our ambition every August, so how many points will we finish with and what position will that put us in?

 

Worst case scenario we go back to playing like we did at the start of the season, we got only nineteen points from the first thirteen games, so that would give us fifty-nine points. That would almost certainly put us exactly where we are now (unless someone behind us goes on an incredible run...unlikely). So sixth. 95% certain of Europa Cup qualification (none of the "four" winning either cup is the only thing that would stop us).

 

We've taken twenty one points from the last twelve games so if we were to carry on at that rate we'd pick up another twenty-three and finish on sixty-three (more points than when we finished fourth in 2005) which, given the lop-sided nature of the table this year, is still only going to be sixth.

 

But, without going through it game by game, we've only got Chelsea and Villa of the teams above us yet to play. Both are beatable but the other eleven games we'll be favourites to win....not a chance we'll win them all because things go wrong and luck goes against you and some of our opposition will be fighting for survival.

I reckon we'd need to get close to thirty points to get in the mix with the teams above us....twenty-eight minimum. Eight wins, four draws, one loss? It's a huge ask but could we do it? Between 12-1 and 25-1 for a top four finish with the bookies which is about right I think but two or three consecutive wins and the odds will drop a lot.

Could be an exciting run-in...let's hope so :) .

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Sunday, 22 February 2009

Barclays Premier League

Newcastle v Everton, 16:00

 

Always difficult at St. James Park, I can see this going either way. I'd say draw - 1 point

 

Saturday, 28 February 2009

Barclays Premier League

Everton v West Brom, 12:45

 

West Brom have been abysmal on the road, a definate win, and by this point we should have Saha back - 4 points

 

Wednesday, 04 March 2009

Barclays Premier League

Blackburn v Everton, 20:00

 

Another difficult game here, but Blackburn can be beaten, especially if we play as we have been - 7 points

 

Saturday, 14 March 2009

Barclays Premier League

Everton v Stoke, 15:00

 

Another definate win, Stoke while having the fortress of Britannia are shite on the road - 10 points

 

Saturday, 21 March 2009

Barclays Premier League

Portsmouth v Everton, 12:45

 

This is a hard one to predict as Adams will need some victories and I can see Portsmouth fighting for a point here, still I think we have the quality to win - 13 points

 

Sunday, 05 April 2009

Barclays Premier League

Everton v Wigan, 15:00

 

This has draw written all over it, they've dragged draws out of Villa and Fulham and while being toothless without Heskey they have been resolute in defence - 14 points

 

Saturday, 11 April 2009

Barclays Premier League

Aston Villa v Everton, 15:00

 

This will be a decisive game, and one we must win in order to get into europe and maybe Champs league. If we are going to get up into the top eschelon we need to beat the ones challenging with us - 17 points

 

Saturday, 18 April 2009

Barclays Premier League

Chelsea v Everton, 15:00

 

Chelsea have been all at sea as of late, but I can see us getting a draw out of this. We held them at Goodison and they have been shocking at the Bridge this year - 18 points

 

Saturday, 25 April 2009

Barclays Premier League

Everton v Man City, 15:00

 

Shock defeat? Our run is bound to end somewhere and if it ended here I wouldn't be disappointed. Man City have no consistency and as the season goes on I can see them losing games they should win and winning games they should lose. This could be one of those days... - 18 points

 

Saturday, 02 May 2009

Barclays Premier League

Sunderland v Everton, 15:00

 

Sunderland are doing well at the stadium of light, but we ran over them at Goodison and we can do it again - 21 points

 

Saturday, 09 May 2009

Barclays Premier League

Everton v Tottenham, 15:00

 

The sprint towards the end totally depends on how Tottenham do by this point, so this could go either way. On that basis I'd say we'd settle for a draw - 22 points

 

Saturday, 16 May 2009

Barclays Premier League

Everton v West Ham, 15:00

 

West Ham have come into form at the moment but we've switched our focus and at present are stronger at Goodison than away from it. This should go our way - 25 points

 

Sunday, 24 May 2009

Barclays Premier League

Fulham v Everton, 16:00

 

Fulham have been immense at Craven Cottage for good few games now and it won't be fun going there but by this point Vaughan should be back in contention and we should have some real options for attack. Again this a must win game if we want to get Europe - 28 points

 

28 out of 39? Plus a run in the F.A. Cup? Sounds good to me, we'll end on 68 which should definately land us europe and maybe the semis or even the final of the cup B)

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Only taking one point out of nine from our home games with Blackburn, Portsmouth, and Newcastle could be the big killer at the end of the season as far as battling for fourth goes.

 

Have you noticed what our last match of the season is? At Fulham, the one place where no matter how good we are or how bad they are, we always lose. It would be so Everton, wouldn't it, to go into that match with a chance to sneak into fifth (or fourth), but needing to break a forty-plus year duck to do it?

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Guest efctaxi

I'm confident we still have a chance in the cup , but it will be difficult to keep changing formation , with , and without a striker . If we get beat by Villa though , we have a habbit of letting our heads go down every time we lose a cup tie , so might work against us in that respect .

 

One game at a time is the best thing for now .

We are capable of beating Newcastle , and I expect we will , but with 4 players on 4 yellows , sooner or later , we are going to have a problem .

It's been an essential move getting the young lads playing , and that will be the key to the rest of the season I think .

 

I really can't see Moyes playing 2 strikers , even if Saha gets fit , so let's hope Jô stays injury free .

 

With Arsenal slipping up again today , I really believe we can catch them , if we can have a good month , so that should be the target .

 

Arsenal v Sunderland.....Newcastle v Everton

Arsenal v Fulham...........Everton v West Brom

West Brom v Arsenal.....Blackburn v Everton

Arsenal v Blackburn.......Everton v Stoke

Newcastle v Arsenal.......Portsmouth v Everton

Arsenal v Man City.........Everton v Wigan

Wigan v Arsenal.............Aston Villa v Everton

Liverpool v Arsenal.........Chelsea v Everton

Arsenal v Middlesbrough..Everton v Man City

Portsmouth v Arsenal......Sunderland v Everton

Arsenal v Chelsea...........Everton v Tottenham

Man Utd v Arsenal...........Everton v West Ham

Arsenal v Stoke..............Fulham v Everton

 

Fairly even run in , though with them being 4 points clear , they are still favourites .

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There is a stat from the past few seasons that may be relevant. When Cahill plays, last season and this season to date, we average over two points per game. If he remains fit and avoids suspension, and that stat holds, we're close to 70 points.

 

When he's not in the team we average just over a point per game.

 

These stats are over the last 63 PL games.

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Pretty much two thirds of the way through the season we've reached the forty points that not so long ago was the extent of our ambition every August, so how many points will we finish with and what position will that put us in?

 

Worst case scenario we go back to playing like we did at the start of the season, we got only nineteen points from the first thirteen games, so that would give us fifty-nine points. That would almost certainly put us exactly where we are now (unless someone behind us goes on an incredible run...unlikely). So sixth. 95% certain of Europa Cup qualification (none of the "four" winning either cup is the only thing that would stop us).

 

We've taken twenty one points from the last twelve games so if we were to carry on at that rate we'd pick up another twenty-three and finish on sixty-three (more points than when we finished fourth in 2005) which, given the lop-sided nature of the table this year, is still only going to be sixth.

 

But, without going through it game by game, we've only got Chelsea and Villa of the teams above us yet to play. Both are beatable but the other eleven games we'll be favourites to win....not a chance we'll win them all because things go wrong and luck goes against you and some of our opposition will be fighting for survival.

I reckon we'd need to get close to thirty points to get in the mix with the teams above us....twenty-eight minimum. Eight wins, four draws, one loss? It's a huge ask but could we do it? Between 12-1 and 25-1 for a top four finish with the bookies which is about right I think but two or three consecutive wins and the odds will drop a lot.

Could be an exciting run-in...let's hope so :) .

 

Ok, Arsenal just drew against Spurs, so they're now only 4 points away. Chelsea are a bit further, at 49, but I get the feeling big phil is getting lost. I mean, Quaresma was the guy pushing them forward, he was the guy creating the chances, and he takes him out??

 

So, let's look, for example, at the next round's games:

 

Aston Villa v Chelsea

Arsenal v Sunderland

Bolton v West Ham United

Middlesbrough v Wigan Athletic

Stoke City v Portsmouth

Manchester United v Blackburn Rovers

Fulham v West Bromwich Albion

Liverpool v Manchester City

Newcastle United v Everton

Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur

 

Ok, Everton's got a complicated match at newcastle, but nothing untoward, Liverpoo, on their current form, will be hard pressed against city, and Villa v Chelsea is gonna be a whopper of a game, and we'll see right there if Villa have what it takes for a top 4 finish or not, and I think they do.

 

Now, here's what remains of the season for Everton:

 

Newcastle v Everton

Everton v West Bromwich Albion

Blackburn v Everton

Everton v Stoke City

Portsmouth v Everton

Everton v Wigan Athletic

Villa v Everton

Chelsea v Everton

Everton v Manchester City

Sunderland v Everton

Everton v Tottenham Hotspur

Everton v West Ham United

Fulham v Everton

 

Now, I see basically 2 very though games, away at Villa and Stamford, the rest, while there's some games more complicated than others, most of them are at home, and Everton's home form is improving, after it's lackluster start. So out of those 13 games, 8 wins isn't really that hard to see, especially now with more solutions up front. Thinking more positively, but still with some realism, i can see 10 wins, and 3 uncertain results, those beeing Villa, Chelsea and City.

 

Now, if you look at the games in hand for the 4 teams above (let's forget about United ;) ), those are:

 

Aston Villa v Chelsea

Arsenal v Sunderland

Liverpool v Manchester City

 

 

Arsenal v Fulham

Chelsea v Wigan Athletic

Middlesbrough v Liverpool

Aston Villa v Stoke City

 

 

Portsmouth v Chelsea

West Bromwich Albion v Arsenal

Liverpool v Sunderland

Manchester City v Aston Villa

 

 

Manchester United v Liverpool

Arsenal v Blackburn Rovers

Chelsea v Manchester City

Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur

 

 

Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea

Newcastle United v Arsenal

Liverpool v Aston Villa

 

 

Arsenal v Manchester City

Fulham v Liverpool

Manchester United v Aston Villa

Newcastle United v Chelsea

 

 

Aston Villa v Everton

Chelsea v Bolton Wanderers

Liverpool v Blackburn Rovers

Wigan Athletic v Arsenal

 

 

Aston Villa v West Ham United

Chelsea v Everton

Liverpool v Arsenal

 

 

Arsenal v Middlesbrough

Bolton Wanderers v Aston Villa

Hull City v Liverpool

West Ham United v Chelsea

 

 

Aston Villa v Hull City

Chelsea v Fulham

Liverpool v Newcastle United

Portsmouth v Arsenal

 

 

Arsenal v Chelsea

Fulham v Aston Villa

West Ham United v Liverpool

 

 

IS it just me, or are Everton's fixtures a lot easier than those teams? For one, there's 4 games between those teams, second, 2 of those sides still need to visit Old Trafford, Villa and Liverpoo. Besides, we've seen that both Arsenal and Chelsea have been having a notorious hard time winning games, and the Champions League is around the corner, and even Villa has 2 complicated matches coming up still this month for the UEFA Cup.

 

So you have Arsenal v Roma, Liverpoo v Real Madrid, Chelsea v Juventus and Villa v CSKA.

 

Add to that the FA Cup, which only liverpoo are out of ;), and it's a lot of games for those teams. And granted, Villa play Everton on the 15th, but they have the UEFA clash at the 18th, then Chelsea at the 21st. That's 3 big games for 3 different competitions in the space of 6 days... Arsenal and Chelsea are similar, only liverpoo don't have the cup games, but still, that's a lot of matches for a team that has clearlt shown that they don't have much in terms of alternatives, when were reaching a crucial time of the season where every point can make the difference.

 

So, in essence, I think there's quite a good possibility for Everton to climb in the league table. I see a definite 5th place, potentially a 4th, since I see everyone above dropping more points than Everton.

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Only taking one point out of nine from our home games with Blackburn, Portsmouth, and Newcastle could be the big killer at the end of the season as far as battling for fourth goes.

 

Not to mention the late goals from Villa and Arsenal that cost us another three points :( .

 

Have you noticed what our last match of the season is? At Fulham, the one place where no matter how good we are or how bad they are, we always lose. It would be so Everton, wouldn't it, to go into that match with a chance to sneak into fifth (or fourth), but needing to break a forty-plus year duck to do it?

 

We had the same problem with White Hart Lane until a few years back. Records are there to be broken :) .

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