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Trump in charge (ex race for the US presidency thread)

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2 hours ago, Matt said:

Friends is a TV show. Fox is a corporation of many things but if we're talking purely about Fox News, it's a propaganda machine. The stories are usually presented completely without fact, it's the equivalent of the Daily Mail but televised. Not all, but the majority. Even when there's something that cannot be lied about, their go to either "yeah, but" or "what if...". Trouble is, it's target audience see it as the only "honest network" (I'm going on my family and their friends in the US) and all other news outlets are those who are lying. When I pointed out that if all news outlets lie, they say not FN. I was generally left slack-jawed.

An example when I was over in Arizona was a "report" on how immigrants where taking over Germany and how the Germans where rebelling against the government. The video and captions they showed were of neo-Nazi groups with signs about master races. How do I know that? I speak German, but the others in the room didn't and said "look at what a mess Europe is in, the people are speaking up". I translated the banners for them and they didn't believe me, saying what Fox was "reporting" was true. 

The aim of Fox News is to push anything that will go against the government in general, more so when it's anything liberal led (they were relatively quiet when Congress was controlled by the Republicans, now Congress is ripe for attack constantly). They have consistently gone against who they don't like, often by presenting flat out lies as facts. Trouble is, the demographic they aim at like loud shouty people because they misunderstand that as confidence and strength. These aren't stupid people I'm talking about, they're very kind and intelligent people. But they buy the horseshit because there's been a careful divide created over their lifetime and in the last couple of years Fox News has gone out of their way to create this divide further for their own gain; the more there's a divide, the more viewers they can get in and convert, the more money they get. They're on par with Alex Jones in terms of agendas and selfishness.

Read my first post, its WWE for low information people with a conservative bias. Identifying that and then making causal links that can't be established with any actual data is just a different kind of low information analysis that doesn't really add anything to the conversation.

It's just left wing liberals wanting to feel informed about the situation rather than getting informed about wtf is actually going on. Two sides of the same very basic coin. 

 

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2 hours ago, Matt said:

These aren't stupid people I'm talking about, they're very kind and intelligent people. But they buy the horseshit because there's been a careful divide created over their lifetime and in the last couple of years Fox News has gone out of their way to create this divide further for their own gain; the more there's a divide,

Provide any replicable study that can demonstrate this phenomenon you describe here is actually a thing. Just one.

I've said i before and I'll keep saying it, this is the social/political science version of flat earth theory/climate change denial.

 

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25 minutes ago, Chach said:

Read my first post, its WWE for low information people with a conservative bias. Identifying that and then making causal links that can't be established with any actual data is just a different kind of low information analysis that doesn't really add anything to the conversation.

It's just left wing liberals wanting to feel informed about the situation rather than getting informed about wtf is actually going on. Two sides of the same very basic coin. 

 

Your WWE comparison is true for some but not all, it’s a blanket statement with nothing to back it up with. Im not going to waste time searching for a study when I’ve got first hand experience and that you’d just dismiss out of hand. Plus a replicable study would take decades so it’s entirely pointless discussing further. 
 

For what it’s worth, Fox News / Daily Mail / etc and the likes of The Guardian / Independent are one in the same to me; extreme bias preying on people to divide the population further. 

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10 hours ago, Chach said:

If you watched Fox News do you think you would be swayed by their agenda?

If not, why do you think that is?

 

2 hours ago, Chach said:

Read my first post, its WWE for low information people with a conservative bias. Identifying that and then making causal links that can't be established with any actual data is just a different kind of low information analysis that doesn't really add anything to the conversation.

It's just left wing liberals wanting to feel informed about the situation rather than getting informed about wtf is actually going on. Two sides of the same very basic coin. 

 

I do watch Fox News. I'm from the South; it's everywhere here. It's the  main news source for people in my area and the surrounding ones.

The bold above is why I'm not swayed. 

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One thing I’ll thank you for (and pretty pissed off with you for ruining comedy for me) with this discussion Chach, is confirming what I’ve been thinking about about how shows like John Oliver, Colbert, Fallon et al are also fundamentally biased. Though at least I’ve always taken them as comedy, as they declare themselves as, and not “fair and balanced”.

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11 hours ago, MikeO said:

Has anyone offered him a syringe and a bottle of Domestos yet? I'll spring for it no problem if not.

I wonder if he’ll get done for manslaughter if people die from “treating” themselves like that. 

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2 hours ago, Matt said:

I wonder if he’ll get done for manslaughter if people die from “treating” themselves like that. 

He's teflon. He'd probably do a big press conference condemning them for committing suicide and now their souls would rest in purgatory, and his worshipers would lap it up and spread the message.

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3 minutes ago, Matt said:

Surprised you don’t recognize him. Hes brillant 

Ah right caught on now, it's Mark Steel himself; thought it was him tweeting a vid of somebody else.:doh:

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On 24/04/2020 at 19:33, Matt said:

Your WWE comparison is true for some but not all, it’s a blanket statement with nothing to back it up with. Im not going to waste time searching for a study when I’ve got first hand experience and that you’d just dismiss out of hand. Plus a replicable study would take decades so it’s entirely pointless discussing further. 
 

For what it’s worth, Fox News / Daily Mail / etc and the likes of The Guardian / Independent are one in the same to me; extreme bias preying on people to divide the population further. 

Holy fuck mate you are just getting worse and worse and ironically proving my point, you have your intuitions and you're not interested in looking at any evidence that contradicts it, exactly like Trump voters. You've been presented with mountain of good analysis/data by experts in the field but then declare you're going to stick with your n of 1 anecdotes.

What your are actually proposing is a blank slate view of humanity which has been debunked to death, explains nothing about anything. If you dig down to the actual reasons of our current political discord they actually explain quite lot, not only that but you also see it parallels with history which you are doomed to repeat if you ignore it.

Try and explain the US Civil War, or Reagan and Thatcher with your "biased media preying on people" hypothesis, see how far you get.

Edit: if you want a bigger than N of 1 but still not scientific example of how things get polarised with no one giving an inch and descending into uncivilised behaviour you need only go and have a look at the Brexit/GE whatever thread.

Read the first few pages and see how reasonable everyones position is and contrast it with the end of the thread.

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On 24/04/2020 at 21:38, Sibdane said:

 

I do watch Fox News. I'm from the South; it's everywhere here. It's the  main news source for people in my area and the surrounding ones.

The bold above is why I'm not swayed. 

Is there any other other states in play in your opinion other than Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio (seems unlikely) Penn and Florida?

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2 hours ago, Chach said:

Is there any other other states in play in your opinion other than Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio (seems unlikely) Penn and Florida?

A lot of Midwest states and Texas. 

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3 hours ago, MikeO said:

To be fair whether he meant it or not isn’t really the issue, surely the issue should be how the fuck are there so many idiots roaming free in the USA. 
The land of the free when in reality some need locking up for there own safety, I find it difficult to comprehend that right minded people could consider drinking or injecting disinfectant. 

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1 hour ago, Palfy said:

To be fair whether he meant it or not isn’t really the issue, surely the issue should be how the fuck are there so many idiots roaming free in the USA. 
The land of the free when in reality some need locking up for there own safety, I find it difficult to comprehend that right minded people could consider drinking or injecting disinfectant. 

I disagree. Every country has people with mental health issues and learning disabilities (the US even elected one of them to be president) who'll take the words of people they trust literally.

I think it was inevitable in a country of more than 300 million that a few would act on what he said; half the country buy into the infantile, narcissistic rhetoric he spouts (and tweets) daily after all. Most of those aren't sufficiently lacking in mental capacity to actually experiment with disinfectant but plainly some sadly are.

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14 minutes ago, MikeO said:

I disagree. Every country has people with mental health issues and learning disabilities (the US even elected one of them to be president) who'll take the words of people they trust literally.

I think it was inevitable in a country of more than 300 million that a few would act on what he said; half the country buy into the infantile, narcissistic rhetoric he spouts (and tweets) daily after all. Most of those aren't sufficiently lacking in mental capacity to actually experiment with disinfectant but plainly some sadly are.

But isn’t that worrying for a country that half the population hang on to every word he says like he’s the messiah, yet most of the world and right minded Americans see what you said.

If I lived in America I would be more concerned about the people who believe him than the man himself, there the ones who have the potential to be more dangerous to ( normal ) people than him. 
I know you would expect a few to believe the disinfectant statement and actually take it, but from what I gather there have been thousands asking for advice on what to use, for me that’s scary, and says more about a large number of Americans than him, after all we know he’s a dick. 

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41 minutes ago, Palfy said:

But isn’t that worrying for a country that half the population hang on to every word he says like he’s the messiah, yet most of the world and right minded Americans see what you said.

If I lived in America I would be more concerned about the people who believe him than the man himself, there the ones who have the potential to be more dangerous to ( normal ) people than him. 
I know you would expect a few to believe the disinfectant statement and actually take it, but from what I gather there have been thousands asking for advice on what to use, for me that’s scary, and says more about a large number of Americans than him, after all we know he’s a dick. 

I wouldn't say half of the people in the country believe him. There's half of the people that actually vote, and a lot of that half doesn't necessarily like him but stands by the party. The problem is bigger than Trump himself. Using my dad as an example, he doesn't like Trump, but he'll vote for him because he's in the party. 

The Trump "believers" are the loudest of the people in the Republican party though and do make up a big number of the party. Politicians are going to fall in line with Trump because of those types of people. Those believers are hardcore, and if Trump doesn't like you, then his followers won't vote for you. Losing those votes would pretty much doom you to fail. Sad state of politics right now. 

 

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12 hours ago, Sibdane said:

A lot of Midwest states and Texas. 

Texas! That would be something else. I just checked, they haven't elected a Democratic President since Jimmy Carter.

 

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14 hours ago, Chach said:

Texas! That would be something else. I just checked, they haven't elected a Democratic President since Jimmy Carter.

 

I think I misunderstood your question. 

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2 minutes ago, Palfy said:

Trump accusing China of wanting him to lose his re-election, some news for Trump most of the world wants you to lose you moron. 

That was my immediate reaction too :lol: 

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18 hours ago, Sibdane said:

I think I misunderstood your question. 

I meant do you think any others are winnable, a couple of polls have come out since saying its tight in Texas and North Carolina.

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1 hour ago, Chach said:

I meant do you think any others are winnable, a couple of polls have come out since saying its tight in Texas and North Carolina.

Ahh I see. Well yeah, the midwest states are winnable. On Texas, Beto wasn't too far from winning a senate seat, and he's a lot more left than Biden. Never know. I personally don't see Texas flipping though. 

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50 minutes ago, Sibdane said:

Ahh I see. Well yeah, the midwest states are winnable. On Texas, Beto wasn't too far from winning a senate seat, and he's a lot more left than Biden. Never know. I personally don't see Texas flipping though. 

What states form the rust belt, and would he be unassailable in those states still. 

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15 minutes ago, Palfy said:

What states form the rust belt, and would he be unassailable in those states still. 

 Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. 

I think Ohio and Indiana would be hard to turn against Trump. 

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28 minutes ago, Sibdane said:

 Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. 

I think Ohio and Indiana would be hard to turn against Trump. 

Thanks for that Sib I’d heard of the terminology but was never sure what states made up the rust belt, have they always been fiercely republican states or is it that they believe Trump is the man. 

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4 minutes ago, Palfy said:

Thanks for that Sib I’d heard of the terminology but was never sure what states made up the rust belt, have they always been fiercely republican states or is it that they believe Trump is the man. 

Mostly Republican now, but those other states above were barely won by Trump with the exception of Illinois. I can see a most of them flipping the other way. Here's how the states voted in 2016. Even if all the states voted the same but Biden managed to flip Penn and Florida then he would win. 

Final electoral college map - Business Insider

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1 hour ago, Sibdane said:

Mostly Republican now, but those other states above were barely won by Trump with the exception of Illinois. I can see a most of them flipping the other way. Here's how the states voted in 2016. Even if all the states voted the same but Biden managed to flip Penn and Florida then he would win. 

Final electoral college map - Business Insider

Do you think that Biden has a better than average chance to win in Penn and Florida. 

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13 minutes ago, Palfy said:

Do you think that Biden has a better than average chance to win in Penn and Florida. 

The polls think so, but they got it wrong about Clinton. It is a good sign that Fox News has Biden beating Trump in FL and PA. 

image.thumb.png.8d5923e4e40b1632cc3822f9d4deac51.png

image.thumb.png.2d66a4ba20435a2b95bbd64fedaee786.png

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2 minutes ago, Sibdane said:

The polls think so, but they got it wrong about Clinton. It is a good sign that Fox News has Biden beating Trump in FL and PA. 

image.thumb.png.8d5923e4e40b1632cc3822f9d4deac51.png

image.thumb.png.2d66a4ba20435a2b95bbd64fedaee786.png

That looks very promising. Possibly not the right thread to put this, but if any good comes out of the Covid disaster, let it be that the world comes back to it’s senses and politicians like Trump aren’t accepted as credible leaders again. 

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17 hours ago, Sibdane said:

The polls think so, but they got it wrong about Clinton. It is a good sign that Fox News has Biden beating Trump in FL and PA. 

To be fair to the pollsters she did win the popular vote by 2% and was predicted to win by 3%. They break out a few other weighting issues in this piece,

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2019/11/19/a-field-guide-to-polling-election-2020-edition/

Apparently a lot of undecideds went disproportionately Trump's way which is curious, I would love to know why that might have been.

This poll called it for Trump the entire campaign, have dug around to find out what they might do differently but no joy. Will certainly be watching this one this campaign, but if this was supposed to predict popular vote, technically and ironically it was the furthest out.

image.thumb.png.90152968374111997341aa48ca53b7e1.png

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Trump on the phone to Kim “ Is that really you I heard you had died “

Kim to Trump “ I nearly did after I took your disinfectant advice you stupid prick”
 

For me that sort of sums up the education of our world leaders, I know it’s not what happened in reality, but I wonder if Boris did the same thing🤷‍♂️
 

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Guest TallPaul1878
39 minutes ago, MikeO said:

Entrenched positions are entrenched. Flagging Trump's tweets just fuels the fire that Twitter and silicon valley in general has it in for conservatives. It's why he is going to win again in 2020.

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3 hours ago, TallPaul1878 said:

Entrenched positions are entrenched. Flagging Trump's tweets just fuels the fire that Twitter and silicon valley in general has it in for conservatives. It's why he is going to win again in 2020.

What I find funny about Trump's stance against mail-in voting is that he has used it in the past without issue (according to him).

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Guest TallPaul1878
22 minutes ago, Sibdane said:

What I find funny about Trump's stance against mail-in voting is that he has used it in the past without issue (according to him).

Trump was a life long Democrat, he just went Republican because that was where he felt it easiest to gain power.

That's what people do with power, they grab it where they can. If mail in voting doesn't suit him then he'll block it, if it did then he'd support it. I don't think Democrats would play it any differently. They're all sociopaths 🤣

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12 minutes ago, TallPaul1878 said:

Trump was a life long Democrat, he just went Republican because that was where he felt it easiest to gain power.

That's what people do with power, they grab it where they can. If mail in voting doesn't suit him then he'll block it, if it did then he'd support it. I don't think Democrats would play it any differently. They're all sociopaths 🤣

The things is, he used mail-in voting for the Republican primary in FL this year. 

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Guest TallPaul1878
Just now, Sibdane said:

The things is, he used mail-in voting for the Republican primary in FL this year. 

Oh I'm not all that aware of the primaries. It doesn't surprise me though. Florida has a lot of elderly Republican voters so it is likely he would want to get them to their votes counted whilst they could not make it to the ballot box.

New York and California not so much

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3 hours ago, TallPaul1878 said:

Oh I'm not all that aware of the primaries. It doesn't surprise me though. Florida has a lot of elderly Republican voters so it is likely he would want to get them to their votes counted whilst they could not make it to the ballot box.

New York and California not so much

Also just read that White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany has voted by mail 11 times in the past 10 years, sending in a ballot for every Florida election she's participated in. This is Trump's spoke-person, which I find interesting. 

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Guest TallPaul1878
13 hours ago, Sibdane said:

Also just read that White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany has voted by mail 11 times in the past 10 years, sending in a ballot for every Florida election she's participated in. This is Trump's spoke-person, which I find interesting. 

The issue with social media companies is that they are offered certain protections with regards to content that goes on their sites. They are protected as platforms and so cannot be held accountable for what is said, they are a digital town square.

Since Twitter has taken it upon itself to moderate content then they have started to act as a publisher rather than a platform holder. A publisher would be liable for content that is available on it's sites and Twitter is NOTORIOUS for hate speech. If Twitter wants to police speech, rightly or wrongly, then it has to police it all.

Is Twitter a platform or a publisher of content? It needs to make that distinction, Facebook too. There is one thing to remove illegal content, another to decide what is and isn't considered "truth".

Yes, Trump was wrong with his statements. He is wrong quite a lot of times, but so are a whole host of other blue check marked users that get cart blanche to spout their drivel on a daily basis.

It's the same thing I've complained about on here. Twitter and silicon valley in general leans towards globalism and progressivism. It is made up of those kinds of people. They, probably through an unconscious bias, offer leniency towards those of their own persuasion than to socially conservative and populist voices.

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4 hours ago, TallPaul1878 said:

The issue with social media companies is that they are offered certain protections with regards to content that goes on their sites. They are protected as platforms and so cannot be held accountable for what is said, they are a digital town square.

Since Twitter has taken it upon itself to moderate content then they have started to act as a publisher rather than a platform holder. A publisher would be liable for content that is available on it's sites and Twitter is NOTORIOUS for hate speech. If Twitter wants to police speech, rightly or wrongly, then it has to police it all.

Is Twitter a platform or a publisher of content? It needs to make that distinction, Facebook too. There is one thing to remove illegal content, another to decide what is and isn't considered "truth".

Yes, Trump was wrong with his statements. He is wrong quite a lot of times, but so are a whole host of other blue check marked users that get cart blanche to spout their drivel on a daily basis.

It's the same thing I've complained about on here. Twitter and silicon valley in general leans towards globalism and progressivism. It is made up of those kinds of people. They, probably through an unconscious bias, offer leniency towards those of their own persuasion than to socially conservative and populist voices.

I get where you're coming from, but you also have to consider the amount of influence Trump has on the public versus other "blue checks." I also do see a lot of others getting banned and/or moderated, but it's mostly for hate speech or spamming. 

Facebook is an interesting one to bring up though, because they are notorious for running misleading/untrue ads in favor of conservatism. 

I don't disagree with your broader point that silicon valley leans more left of center. 

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25 minutes ago, Sibdane said:

I get where you're coming from, but you also have to consider the amount of influence Trump has on the public versus other "blue checks." I also do see a lot of others getting banned and/or moderated, but it's mostly for hate speech or spamming. 

Facebook is an interesting one to bring up though, because they are notorious for running misleading/untrue ads in favor of conservatism. 

I don't disagree with your broader point that silicon valley leans more left of center. 

Silicon valley employees may lean left of center (i mean grunts, not execs) but all the CEO's are hardcore right wingers or libertarians or whatever you wanna call it.  the execs are all money grubbing and power hungry capitalists.  that's as conservative as it gets.  i don't see any socialism at play in those companies.  I see massively unequal pay structures, unequal treatment of men and women, and policies (like the twitter mentioned) that are meant to capitalize on money and power (see the way they handle or don't handle trump).  I see all of them at the round table with Trump FREQUENTLY talking  business and putting their agenda forward and seeing how they can benefit each other.  If these were idealistic socialists they wouldn't be at that table Paul.  There they are though, and they do the song and dance routine where Trump uses them all and then acts like he doesn't with a slap on the wrist penalties (see facebook) and then they go back to sharing meals and tables at White House dinners and functions.  

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Guest TallPaul1878
1 hour ago, markjazzbassist said:

Silicon valley employees may lean left of center (i mean grunts, not execs) but all the CEO's are hardcore right wingers or libertarians or whatever you wanna call it.  the execs are all money grubbing and power hungry capitalists.  that's as conservative as it gets.  i don't see any socialism at play in those companies.  I see massively unequal pay structures, unequal treatment of men and women, and policies (like the twitter mentioned) that are meant to capitalize on money and power (see the way they handle or don't handle trump).  I see all of them at the round table with Trump FREQUENTLY talking  business and putting their agenda forward and seeing how they can benefit each other.  If these were idealistic socialists they wouldn't be at that table Paul.  There they are though, and they do the song and dance routine where Trump uses them all and then acts like he doesn't with a slap on the wrist penalties (see facebook) and then they go back to sharing meals and tables at White House dinners and functions.  

There are 2 aspects to political affiliations. I would suggest both Republican and Democrats are both economically liberal in their ideology. When I speak of conservatives I generally mean of a social slant. One that is a proponent of tradition, church, marriage, etc. Look at Trump and Boris and they are none of these either so I don't consider them true "conservatives".

I would place myself firmly as socially conservative but I have plenty of traditionally "left wing" ideologies around state ownership of public utilities etc.

The majority of these silicon valley and Hollywood execs appear to lean left because culturally that is where the power lies. Additionally we have the Chinese marketplace to consider. Look at how Twitch are quite happy to bend the knee and silence pro Hong Kong sentiment for fear of losing out on access to the Chinese market. A reckoning needs to be made as to whether we are going to continue down the path of appeasement or whether our Western values our worth more than the money available in China.

The libertarian ideals do not work on a global scale because nations like China are not playing the same game. Letting the market decide is a flawed idea when the market is now being rigged by a powerful government. 

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Guest TallPaul1878
2 hours ago, Sibdane said:

I get where you're coming from, but you also have to consider the amount of influence Trump has on the public versus other "blue checks." I also do see a lot of others getting banned and/or moderated, but it's mostly for hate speech or spamming. 

Facebook is an interesting one to bring up though, because they are notorious for running misleading/untrue ads in favor of conservatism. 

I don't disagree with your broader point that silicon valley leans more left of center. 

I think I covered most of it in my reply to Mark. I don't really see left and right in their traditional senses any more. I don't think the major parties really represent traditional left wing ideologies. I can't imagine Labour or Democrats actually renationalising public utilities any time soon. One party is just more laissez fare than the other.

The left now represents globalism and progressivism. I have no doubt that Barclays Bank doesn't actually give a stuff about LGBT people when they decide to smother everything in rainbow colours once a year.

My neighbours are lesbians, neither of them have ever been to a Pride parade, they find it fake, I guess that makes them far right now 🤣

The progressive left likes to believe it has a moral high ground because it champions the rights of minority groups. Really they just see them as giant voting bloc to gain power and until recently they did have all the power. People complain about Trump and Boris espousing populism, well populism doesn't sprout up in a vacuum. Enough people felt marginalised enough by globalist and progressive policies that they voted against it.

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