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Referendum  

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  1. 1. In or out?

    • Stay in
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    • Leave
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I'm getting bored of the amount of post I'm getting from people telling me to stay. Nearly every day now!

 

One thing I don't get, as the scaremongering reaches fever pitch, the last few days Cameron and Osbourne have looked like they are telling us we have just been attacked by aliens such is the panic in their delivery, if all of this is so bad and scary and the U.K. Will fall apart, why on earth would Cameron even give us the choice? He doesn't have to. Ok he put it in his manifesto to get some extra votes, but you're in now. You aren't running again. Why not just come out and say I've done some research at the expense of £20m+ (like they have spent on the marketing for the remain vote) of tax money and it's too much of a risk.

 

Matt, I know you're in Switzerland and they aren't in the EU, is there anyone over there pushing to get into the EU? Do the Swiss people feel quite happy to not need it? I'm just curious to see how things are from a country in Europe but not the EU and how it's viewed. From my single visit there it seemed like there is a great standard of living and a very healthy economy. Couple of nice watches too.

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I'm getting bored of the amount of post I'm getting from people telling me to stay. Nearly every day now!

 

One thing I don't get, as the scaremongering reaches fever pitch, the last few days Cameron and Osbourne have looked like they are telling us we have just been attacked by aliens such is the panic in their delivery, if all of this is so bad and scary and the U.K. Will fall apart, why on earth would Cameron even give us the choice? He doesn't have to. Ok he put it in his manifesto to get some extra votes, but you're in now. You aren't running again. Why not just come out and say I've done some research at the expense of £20m+ (like they have spent on the marketing for the remain vote) of tax money and it's too much of a risk.

 

Matt, I know you're in Switzerland and they aren't in the EU, is there anyone over there pushing to get into the EU? Do the Swiss people feel quite happy to not need it? I'm just curious to see how things are from a country in Europe but not the EU and how it's viewed. From my single visit there it seemed like there is a great standard of living and a very healthy economy. Couple of nice watches too.

I'll let this answer:

 

http://infacts.org/dont-envy-switzerland/

 

edit: another non-EU country review

 

http://infacts.org/briefings/norwegian-model/

 

The better idea in my opinion

 

http://infacts.org/brown-european-leaders-back-lead-not-leave-manifesto/

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Matt, I know you're in Switzerland and they aren't in the EU, is there anyone over there pushing to get into the EU? Do the Swiss people feel quite happy to not need it? I'm just curious to see how things are from a country in Europe but not the EU and how it's viewed. From my single visit there it seemed like there is a great standard of living and a very healthy economy. Couple of nice watches too.

 

Switzerland has been isolationist for a long time, neutral in both wars, so I doubt there's any inclination to join. I have a nice Swiss watch, was my Dad's :).

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I'll read that now Matt, is this an accurate reflection of what people think? I never trust anything posted online, or in the papers for that matter, especially in this topic.

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I'll read that now Matt, is this an accurate reflection of what people think? I never trust anything posted online, or in the papers for that matter, especially in this topic.

 

Wise.

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I'll read that now Matt, is this an accurate reflection of what people think? I never trust anything posted online, or in the papers for that matter, especially in this topic.

So there's no point in me replying then :P

 

Honestly, I don't know. I never really paid attention in 2014 because I had my permit and they couldn't kick me out if they tried. I also never thought things would be so bad in the UK to think "Brexit" would become a thing, but I should've known better with the Tories in charge...

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Fair enough mate, I've read the first link. Seems grim. I'll read the second now.

 

I may not trust things online, but I believe everything I read on TT.

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How they thought they could operate with a currency designed for the Germans is mind boggling. On the other hand, they may not have had a choice the EU being as undemocratic as it is.

 

Well this is a new low. Greece wanted very much to be in the eurozone but wasn't allowed to ("by the EU elite..") because they didn't meet the Maastricht criteria (neither did Belgium at the time). However, because it was the (democratic) wish of the Greek people to join the euro, they were allowed to. Even in the midst of the euro-crisis in Greece a vast majority of Greeks wanted to stay in the euro. So the undemocratic thing would have been not to allow them to join in the first place or to throw them out now.

 

It is also a complete fallacy that only Germany benefited from the euro. It is however indeed a currency for strong economies, that's why the Maastrichts criteria are there; a country can only join the eurozone if it meets those criteria. Belgium, the Netherlands, .. all small countries who have benefited greatly from joining the eurozone.

--

 

(seperate point: what happened in Greece is actually an argument for more involvement of the EU. they got a lot of EU money but mismanaged it and got into a lot of trouble. If there had been more EU oversight over how they spent the money, this might not have happened.. )

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Fair enough mate, I've read the first link. Seems grim. I'll read the second now.

 

I may not trust things online, but I believe everything I read on TT.

 

Unwise.

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Fair enough mate, I've read the first link. Seems grim. I'll read the second now.

 

I may not trust things online, but I believe everything I read on TT.

I still can't get my head around the leave debate. Short term it's attractive, but it's driven by a fear / self preservation instinct which in the long term it fucks us over big time. We should be thinking for the impact of generations to come, as well as the "greater good" argument.

 

Maybe I'm still a lot more idealistic that I thought!

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Well this is a new low. Greece wanted very much to be in the eurozone but wasn't allowed to ("by the EU elite..") because they didn't meet the Maastricht criteria (neither did Belgium at the time). However, because it was the (democratic) wish of the Greek people to join the euro, they were allowed to. Even in the midst of the euro-crisis in Greece a vast majority of Greeks wanted to stay in the euro. So the undemocratic thing would have been not to allow them to join in the first place or to throw them out now.

 

It is also a complete fallacy that only Germany benefited from the euro. It is however indeed a currency for strong economies, that's why the Maastrichts criteria are there; a country can only join the eurozone if it meets those criteria. Belgium, the Netherlands, .. all small countries who have benefited greatly from joining the eurozone.

--

 

(seperate point: what happened in Greece is actually an argument for more involvement of the EU. they got a lot of EU money but mismanaged it and got into a lot of trouble. If there had been more EU oversight over how they spent the money, this might not have happened.. )

I remember when I was working in Hungary this point coming up a lot, actually summarized reasonably well in wiki :o :

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungary_and_the_euro

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The EU arrogantly telling Britain how it's going to be, how they can boss us around, how we can and cannot trade, and how we're oh-so-dependent on them. Such an attitude, frankly, makes people livid - and rightly so.

So, let's assume trade between Britain and EU stops. Which party is hit worse? You can trade with the rest of the world as you like but if you are outside of EU you trade on our terms, just like the Swiss. US is the biggest trade partner for Britain, but the next four biggest countries where Britain exports goods and services are in the EU (Germany, France, Netherlands, Ireland). https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx

 

As an example, let's say there is a commodity that is made both in Britain and some other EU member state. If Britain is outside the EU why would EU let Britain export that commodity freely to EU? Britain would almost certainly have to give bigger concessions to the EU to get that agreement. Unless Britain produces something no-one else does.

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Well this is a new low. Greece wanted very much to be in the eurozone but wasn't allowed to ("by the EU elite..") because they didn't meet the Maastricht criteria (neither did Belgium at the time). However, because it was the (democratic) wish of the Greek people to join the euro, they were allowed to. Even in the midst of the euro-crisis in Greece a vast majority of Greeks wanted to stay in the euro. So the undemocratic thing would have been not to allow them to join in the first place or to throw them out now.

 

It is also a complete fallacy that only Germany benefited from the euro. It is however indeed a currency for strong economies, that's why the Maastrichts criteria are there; a country can only join the eurozone if it meets those criteria. Belgium, the Netherlands, .. all small countries who have benefited greatly from joining the eurozone.

--

 

(seperate point: what happened in Greece is actually an argument for more involvement of the EU. they got a lot of EU money but mismanaged it and got into a lot of trouble. If there had been more EU oversight over how they spent the money, this might not have happened.. )

 

holystove, well there is another view that the EU 'fiddled' the Maastricht criteria to get Greece in as they were desperate to get as many countries on board as possible. I read somewhere about another country (Italy?) can't remember, who also didn't meet the criterea but still got in.

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Well this is a new low. Greece wanted very much to be in the eurozone but wasn't allowed to ("by the EU elite..") because they didn't meet the Maastricht criteria (neither did Belgium at the time). However, because it was the (democratic) wish of the Greek people to join the euro, they were allowed to. Even in the midst of the euro-crisis in Greece a vast majority of Greeks wanted to stay in the euro. So the undemocratic thing would have been not to allow them to join in the first place or to throw them out now.

 

It is also a complete fallacy that only Germany benefited from the euro. It is however indeed a currency for strong economies, that's why the Maastrichts criteria are there; a country can only join the eurozone if it meets those criteria. Belgium, the Netherlands, .. all small countries who have benefited greatly from joining the eurozone.

--

 

(seperate point: what happened in Greece is actually an argument for more involvement of the EU. they got a lot of EU money but mismanaged it and got into a lot of trouble. If there had been more EU oversight over how they spent the money, this might not have happened.. )

Actually the thing with Greece was two-fold. First there definitely was a will in the eurozone to get them in, but the Greek government cooked the books to fill the criteria. If they hadn't they would never have been allowed in.

 

The problem with the euro is, as you say, that a common currency would require much tighter fiscal policies. Still, there has been definite advantages. They just tend not to be as tangible and only can be seen on the long run.

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From The Guardian website.

 

Politics also helped Greece join the euro in 2001, although it was not until 2004 that Athens admitted entry figures had been fudged, the dodgy numbers were an open secret in Brussels. Many other countries were doing the same albeit on a smaller scale. Only later when Greece buckled under the weight of its debts did EU grandees say it had been a mistake to let Greece in.

 

 

I think its fairly clear that the EU were happy to let countries in who didn't meet the criteria. It certainly didn't do those countries any favours which is not something the EU can be proud of.

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I'm a leave vote, but more because I feel optimistic about new opportunities. Sure things are fine in the EU, I just see leaving as an opportunity to grow rather than collapse. Maybe that's a bit naive, but while there are no facts on what will definitely happen I'm willing to take the risk.

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From The Guardian website.

 

Politics also helped Greece join the euro in 2001, although it was not until 2004 that Athens admitted entry figures had been fudged, the dodgy numbers were an open secret in Brussels. Many other countries were doing the same albeit on a smaller scale. Only later when Greece buckled under the weight of its debts did EU grandees say it had been a mistake to let Greece in.

 

 

I think its fairly clear that the EU were happy to let countries in who didn't meet the criteria. It certainly didn't do those countries any favours which is not something the EU can be proud of.

if the EU just let countries join, why hasn't Hungary been accepted over the last 12 years?

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So, let's assume trade between Britain and EU stops. Which party is hit worse? You can trade with the rest of the world as you like but if you are outside of EU you trade on our terms, just like the Swiss. US is the biggest trade partner for Britain, but the next four biggest countries where Britain exports goods and services are in the EU (Germany, France, Netherlands, Ireland). https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx

 

As an example, let's say there is a commodity that is made both in Britain and some other EU member state. If Britain is outside the EU why would EU let Britain export that commodity freely to EU? Britain would almost certainly have to give bigger concessions to the EU to get that agreement. Unless Britain produces something no-one else does.

 

Europe is the only trading region with zero growth over the last decade. Britain would be free to increase trade with regions that are actually growing. We've been a trading nation for centuries, and done well thank you, so the EU can keep its "you'll shrivel and die without us" attitude.

 

That being said, I would vote "out" while wanting to remain "in" as a means of gaining the concessions needed for us to trade more effectively with other nations - to undo those handcuffs we've worn for too many years now. If we don't, we'll become increasingly powerless. Negotiation is all about leverage.

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Europe is the only trading region with zero growth over the last decade. Britain would be free to increase trade with regions that are actually growing. We've been a trading nation for centuries, and done well thank you, so the EU can keep its "you'll shrivel and die without us" attitude.

 

That being said, I would vote "out" while wanting to remain "in" as a means of gaining the concessions needed for us to trade more effectively with other nations - to undo those handcuffs we've worn for too many years now. If we don't, we'll become increasingly powerless. Negotiation is all about leverage.

you ever tried negotiating for something you want with some one you've told you dont want to help? You're talking about having your cake and eating it to (I think that's the right phrase), it's incredibly selfish.

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Can I just say I wish the wider debate had been as respectful and (largely) as well articulated as it has been on here. No abuse; just people having their say.

 

Both camps could learn from us; the behaviour of both sides has been embarrassing.

 

Politics is usually a no-go area on a forum like this but we've lived up to the "thinking" tag, I think we should put some candidates forward in the next general election!

 

Nice one (though all you "out" voters are complete wankers :P).

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Can I just say I wish the wider debate had been as respectful and (largely) as well articulated as it has been on here. No abuse; just people having their say.

 

Both camps could learn from us; the behaviour of both sides has been embarrassing.

 

Politics is usually a no-go area on a forum like this but we've lived up to the "thinking" tag, I think we should put some candidates forward in the next general election!

 

Nice one (though all you "out" voters are complete wankers :P).

 

Mike, well said, I agree. I have been keeping a record of all the 'Remainers' - and I know where you live. :rofl:

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Matt, well maybe Hungary were honest and open that they didn't meet the criteria.

Whats honesty got to do with it though mate? They wanted in, the EU won't let them because they don't fulfill the necessary criteria (so far as I understand it anyway).

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Whats honesty got to do with it though mate? They wanted in, the EU won't let them because they don't fulfill the necessary criteria (so far as I understand it anyway).

 

No, the difference with Greece is that Greece claimed to meet the criteria and fiddled the figures. It appears Brussels were aware of this but were happy to let them in. The EU couldn't let Hungary in because they couldn't be seen to be overriding the criteria.

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Europe is the only trading region with zero growth over the last decade. Britain would be free to increase trade with regions that are actually growing. We've been a trading nation for centuries, and done well thank you, so the EU can keep its "you'll shrivel and die without us" attitude.

 

That being said, I would vote "out" while wanting to remain "in" as a means of gaining the concessions needed for us to trade more effectively with other nations - to undo those handcuffs we've worn for too many years now. If we don't, we'll become increasingly powerless. Negotiation is all about leverage.

So effectively you want to replace your trade with Germany, France etc. with countries outside of Europe? Fair enough and good luck with that.

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No, the difference with Greece is that Greece claimed to meet the criteria and fiddled the figures. It appears Brussels were aware of this but were happy to let them in. The EU couldn't let Hungary in because they couldn't be seen to be overriding the criteria.

so far as I understood Holystove before, that's not the case

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So effectively you want to replace your trade with Germany, France etc. with countries outside of Europe? Fair enough and good luck with that.

 

I've traveled to 75 different countries on business, and I'm sure very many other Brits have, too. A big majority of my business has been outside the EU. Britain would do just fine. History rather proves that.

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Europe is the only trading region with zero growth over the last decade. Britain would be free to increase trade with regions that are actually growing. We've been a trading nation for centuries, and done well thank you, so the EU can keep its "you'll shrivel and die without us" attitude.

 

That being said, I would vote "out" while wanting to remain "in" as a means of gaining the concessions needed for us to trade more effectively with other nations - to undo those handcuffs we've worn for too many years now. If we don't, we'll become increasingly powerless. Negotiation is all about leverage.

I wouldn't say we will become increasingly powerless as while in the EU we have grown into the fifth largest economy on the world.

 

Which is damn impressive for a country of our size.

There is nothing to suggest this is going to change by staying in the EU and I cannot guess what will happen if we leave.

 

But having two children under the age of six, I just can't risk it on English ego.

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so far as I understood Holystove before, that's not the case

Might be true, I don't know. Greece definitely cooked their books.

 

I was just responding to John's statement that Greece were" forced to join the eurozone by the undemocratic EU elite", which holds no basis in reality.

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I've traveled to 75 different countries on business, and I'm sure very many other Brits have, too. A big majority of my business has been outside the EU. Britain would do just fine. History rather proves that.

Eventually, maybe. When Soviet Union collapsed Finland hit the worst recession in its history even though exports to SU only amounted to less than 10%. There is a huge knock-down effect. It's not just the companies that directly produce the exported goods, it's also the companies that service those companies that are hit hard. And when unemployment rises, the service sector is also hit (people have less money to spend). There were other issues as well at the time, but the collapse of SU was a major reason. Thankfully Nokia turned into the biggest mobile phone company in the world and by the end of the 90's the recession was over. But it was a very bad time for many. Lots of people lost their business, their savings and many lost their life (usually by their own hand).

 

So yeah, of course you'll eventually crawl out of the hole you are digging but it will be preceded by a recession that makes this one look like a golden age. That's my estimation, anyways. Just the possibility that the Brexit might happen has hit the big companies' stocks hard. And what do they do when the share prices plummet? They lay people off. I would also guess that companies that are dependant on EU business are quite willing to relocate to the continent. If your business is selling goods a German manufacturer and suddenly the cost of your products for them is higher thanks to import taxes, they quite likely look for other sources.

 

BTW, how do you reckon the cost of the Brexit will be paid for? My guess is more cuts to NHS, education and so on and higher taxes.

 

But as I said, you are free to make your own mistakes. My main worry is that it will give more traction to the right wing parties in Europe. Hungary is already controlled by them and Poland is going to a less desirable decision. Front Nacional in france and Pegida in Germany are quite popular. EU breaks and we'll be back to the good ol' Europe where we had smaller or bigger conflicts every generation. And of course there would be no real counterforce to Russia (USA is more concerned about the Far East and this will clearly be the target of their foreign policy in the future). They already took Crimea (and this was partly possible because of the muted response to them grabbing land from Georgia earlier) and are waging war in Ukraine. There are other countries in the Eastern Europe that have large Russian minorities so if they are not kept in check they will eventually demand those parts should also be allowed to vote if they want to join Russia -> conflicts ensue.

 

It's folly to think war is impossible. That's what Europeans have thought many times in the past. After the Peace of Westphalia and after the Treaty of Versailles, for instance. After the latter, they even created the League of Nations to make sure there would be no more wars. Leaders in France and Germany realised this after World War II and that's why they created the seed that has grown in the EU. And as the popularity of the right wing parties prove, people haven't really changed. And you prove there are enough people who don't care.

 

But you British obviously don't care. You sit on your comfy little island. You have been given much more concessions than other countries and yet you complain. This has pissed off a lot of people on the continent. I really do hope if Brexit happens that Scotland gets a new referendum. That would be fun and I suspect this time the Queen driving around Scotland in a Range Rover won't swing the vote.

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BTW, when people like Putin, Trump and most right wing politicians in Europe (including Farage) support the Brexit it for me proves what a bad idea it is... the worst of the remain camp are nowhere near the asshattery level of the Brexit camp's finest.

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BTW, when people like Putin, Trump and most right wing politicians in Europe (including Farage) support the Brexit it for me proves what a bad idea it is... the worst of the remain camp are nowhere near the asshattery level of the Brexit camp's finest.

Some people are actually basing their decisions solely on this... i have watched as much debate as possible. Out is my overwhelming choice. Not arsed about who stands for what... its the arguments snd how they stand up. Project fear have made the wrong move and its bitten them on the arse.

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Some people are actually basing their decisions solely on this... i have watched as much debate as possible. Out is my overwhelming choice. Not arsed about who stands for what... its the arguments snd how they stand up. Project fear have made the wrong move and its bitten them on the arse.

Thought that was the Leave campaigns nickname?

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Some people are actually basing their decisions solely on this... i have watched as much debate as possible. Out is my overwhelming choice. Not arsed about who stands for what... its the arguments snd how they stand up. Project fear have made the wrong move and its bitten them on the arse.

Sorry but what are the arguments? Preferably ones that have nothing to do with sentiment? Of course it's a valid reason as any, but not really an argument.

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Thought that was the Leave campaigns nickname?

 

Depends which side you're on, they're both doing it.

 

Not with that little odious twat osbourne.

 

More odious than Farage and Gove? Biologically impossible. Osbourne is without a doubt odious but he's just an apprentice compared to those two.

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BTW, when people like Putin, Trump and most right wing politicians in Europe (including Farage) support the Brexit it for me proves what a bad idea it is... the worst of the remain camp are nowhere near the asshattery level of the Brexit camp's finest.

 

When bringing personalities into the equation you have to consider 'vested interests'. There is a big chunk of the 'remains' who have either done well out of the EU or hope to do well of it on a personal level.

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When bringing personalities into the equation you have to consider 'vested interests'. There is a big chunk of the 'remains' who have either done well out of the EU or hope to do well of it on a personal level.

Of course, but that holds true with Putin, Trump etc. as well. And, frankly, those are the people I'd last want to help with their vested interests.

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yes you can be the USA's colonies. come full circle. supreme leader Trump will guide your path.

Only if the guys who build the Mexico wall can build a bridge from Liverpool to NYC.

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