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Palfy

Did Putin order the nerve agent hit.

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Now we can't prove that the nerve agent used in the assassination attempt was Russian, were we right to blame the Russian government and will the other countries that backed us now think we led them down the garden path.

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17 minutes ago, Palfy said:

Now we can't prove that the nerve agent used in the assassination attempt was Russian, were we right to blame the Russian government and will the other countries that backed us now think we led them down the garden path.

Boris jumped the gun and made himself (and by definition all of us) look stupid. Plainly Putin is responsible but you don't accuse until you can prove.

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It seems that our govt and that of the countries that have supported us have enough evidence to be pretty certain it was them. They wouldn' name a country like Russia unless it was nailed on.

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Probably.

Means, Motive, Opportunity.

Means - The substance used in the attack has been identified as Novichok, a military grade nerve agent developed by the Russians in the late eighties and early ninety's. It is incredibly difficult to develop and produce, unlike some other nerve agents like Sarin. This means that the weapon had to come from a country with the capability to produce such weapons, which is about 20 or so.

Russia has in recent history deployed polonium-210, a radio active material to murder Alexander Litvinenko. A public inquiry was eventually held and the report found that Litvinenko was killed by two Russian agents.

Russia passed Legislation, adopted in 2006 that formally permits extrajudicial killings abroad of those Moscow accuses of extremism and terrorism

Motive - Interesting one, Putin stated that the one thing he cannot forgive is betrayal, and Skripal being a Russian intelligence agent who spied for the UK would fall into that catigory.

Secondly the Russian election was fast approaching, the major opponents to Putin had either been arrested, fled or barred from running for the Presidency. The main opposition leader who could not run called for people to boycott the election. Before the attack the polls were suggesting a low turnout. An attack on a traitor living abroad would simultaneously demonstrate Russia's strength, send a message to opponents that there is no place to hide, and the response from the West would play into Putins narrative that Russia is being unfairly treated by the West and they need a strong leader to protect them.

A third theory is that Skripal was still providing intelligence to the West and needed to be silenced in a way that would warn off others from doing the same.

Opportunity - To be able to deploy this nerve agent in a way that targeted just two people and did not affect anyone else shows a level of sophistication and planning that is beyond all but a few countries. This plus the previous murder of Litvinenko shows Russia has the ability and the track record of carrying out such attacks.

Plus there is probably information from GCHQ that we will not be privy to.

So all the evidence points to a country with a capability of producing the nerve agent, the ability to deliver it and a track record of carrying out such attacks. 

Does this mean we can  accuse Putin?

No but we can say that it is highly likely that the attack was ordered by senior members of the Russian Government of which Putin is the head.

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On ‎05‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 19:20, London Blue said:

Probably.

Means, Motive, Opportunity.

Means - The substance used in the attack has been identified as Novichok, a military grade nerve agent developed by the Russians in the late eighties and early ninety's. It is incredibly difficult to develop and produce, unlike some other nerve agents like Sarin. This means that the weapon had to come from a country with the capability to produce such weapons, which is about 20 or so.

Russia has in recent history deployed polonium-210, a radio active material to murder Alexander Litvinenko. A public inquiry was eventually held and the report found that Litvinenko was killed by two Russian agents.

Russia passed Legislation, adopted in 2006 that formally permits extrajudicial killings abroad of those Moscow accuses of extremism and terrorism

Motive - Interesting one, Putin stated that the one thing he cannot forgive is betrayal, and Skripal being a Russian intelligence agent who spied for the UK would fall into that catigory.

Secondly the Russian election was fast approaching, the major opponents to Putin had either been arrested, fled or barred from running for the Presidency. The main opposition leader who could not run called for people to boycott the election. Before the attack the polls were suggesting a low turnout. An attack on a traitor living abroad would simultaneously demonstrate Russia's strength, send a message to opponents that there is no place to hide, and the response from the West would play into Putins narrative that Russia is being unfairly treated by the West and they need a strong leader to protect them.

A third theory is that Skripal was still providing intelligence to the West and needed to be silenced in a way that would warn off others from doing the same.

Opportunity - To be able to deploy this nerve agent in a way that targeted just two people and did not affect anyone else shows a level of sophistication and planning that is beyond all but a few countries. This plus the previous murder of Litvinenko shows Russia has the ability and the track record of carrying out such attacks.

Plus there is probably information from GCHQ that we will not be privy to.

So all the evidence points to a country with a capability of producing the nerve agent, the ability to deliver it and a track record of carrying out such attacks. 

Does this mean we can  accuse Putin?

No but we can say that it is highly likely that the attack was ordered by senior members of the Russian Government of which Putin is the head.

in light of dev elopements as reported in the media over the past week I would say it was certainly very probable.

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