Path to Top 6

[AlbanyNYToffee]

We're nearly unanimous in feeling anything less than top 6 in 19/20 is a disappointment. Which we have every right to feel. So...what is the path to getting there?

City - nailed on top 6 unless Guardiola leaves. Even if that did happen got to be 95% they finish top 6.

Liverpool - pains to say but again nailed on top 6 if Klopp and Salah stay. Even if they both leave it still has to be 90% they finish top 6.

Spurs - could only fall to 7th if Poch leaves 

That leaves Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd: Chelsea have the transfer ban and look like losing Hazard. Arsenal should strengthen an already good squad. Man Utd likely to spend big this summer. 

Arsenal look the strongest there so looks like we'd have to compete with them if we want 4th while Chelsea and Man Utd are competition for 5/6. 

The other thing that needs consideration/watching over the summer is who else outside the top 6 has our aspirations. Wolves and Leicester look strong competition. 

What do you think blues?

 

[markjazzbassist]

3 hours ago, AlbanyNYToffee said:

We're nearly unanimous in feeling anything less than top 6 in 19/20 is a disappointment. Which we have every right to feel. So...what is the path to getting there?

City - nailed on top 6 unless Guardiola leaves. Even if that did happen got to be 95% they finish top 6.

Liverpool - pains to say but again nailed on top 6 if Klopp and Salah stay. Even if they both leave it still has to be 90% they finish top 6.

Spurs - could only fall to 7th if Poch leaves 

That leaves Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd: Chelsea have the transfer ban and look like losing Hazard. Arsenal should strengthen an already good squad. Man Utd likely to spend big this summer. 

Arsenal look the strongest there so looks like we'd have to compete with them if we want 4th while Chelsea and Man Utd are competition for 5/6. 

The other thing that needs consideration/watching over the summer is who else outside the top 6 has our aspirations. Wolves and Leicester look strong competition. 

What do you think blues?

 

first off i would take a top half finish and a cup win (league or FA).  it's europa and a trophy, double whammy, so i don't think we necessarily have to get top 6.  but to answer your question:

top 4

CIty - should win the league again

Liverpool - should be first loser again

Spurs - depends on poch, CL title and poch out the door and they are a tiny squad on a tiny budget with a skint owner, it could go south quickly.  otherwise top 4 for them.

 

the 4th spot is up for grabs.  Chelsea without Hazard and a transfer ban is akin to watford talent wise, we should be above them.  arsenal look weak with no defense or midfield just auba and lacazette.  united are a shit show.  wolves will be tough but hopefully europa will derail them.  leicester should be decent because i think rodgers is a good manager, but i don't think they will be near us. Vardy's end is near and it could well be next campaign, ihenacho is a joke (some on here wanted him, not me) and their talent is maddison and tielemans really.

 

if marco goes all out for the league per moshiri request due to the most money gained there i see 4th as the goal, i really do.  now if he prioritizes a cup win i could see another 8th type finish but hopefully some hardware.

[pete0]

Think top will be hard for anyone to catch City, they just have too much quality in depth. But the rest are vulnerable and almost any club with the right recruitment and management could break into the top 6 next year. 

Liverpool if VAR is used correctly won't come as close again. Plus the other managers should now be wise to their system. Klopp finished 8th in his final season at Dortmund. 

Chelsea have a transfer ban and the players are disgruntled with the manager. Add to that it looks likely Hazard is on his way. 

Spurs don't have that much quality in their squad. Eriksen is their brain and Son their heart. Lose one of them or the manager and they will drop places. 

Arsenal are up in arms. They need a whole new back four and a couple of wingers. 

Man U, similarly to Arsenal need a whole new back four and wingers... and centre mids... and a striker. Basically their squad needs putting in the bin  

 

[Btay]

If you add a 15 goal a season striker to this current team then that’s challenging top 6 right there. Throw in a rb on the same level as Digne and Onyekuru offer what his potential suggest - big cause for excitement. First we need to bridge gap in points between us and 6th.

[Shukes]

Let’s remember though that four of these teams are competing for Europe’s top prizes. 

Maybe they aren’t as poor as we imagine, but rather we have caught up a little. 

We need to make 7th place our own and aim to fight for the two places above. 

[Palfy]

4 minutes ago, Shukes said:

Let’s remember though that four of these teams are competing for Europe’s top prizes. 

Maybe they aren’t as poor as we imagine, but rather we have caught up a little. 

We need to make 7th place our own and aim to fight for the two places above. 

Shukes we haven't caught up a little quite the reverse we have been lapped in the last 3-4 seasons the points difference between us and 6th place is getting larger not smaller, and surly the reality of our position is what happens over a whole season and the points we get.

[Shukes]

5 hours ago, Palfy said:

Shukes we haven't caught up a little quite the reverse we have been lapped in the last 3-4 seasons the points difference between us and 6th place is getting larger not smaller, and surly the reality of our position is what happens over a whole season and the points we get.

And we have our points for years dont we?

Surely you can look at the bigger picture and see that although the last third of the season doesn’t suggest consistency, it does show that we are competing against the top six teams. And isn’t our form suggesting we are top four now? Or is that another mythical fact haha.

A lot of fans can’t see past the rebuilding and changes we are making. We have changed manager, players, staff, and it’s taken a season to get the managers vision realised. But you have to give credit where due, and see that we have improved. 

I really struggle to see how you can view last season as better than this? Crazy notion, you should lay of the pop

[Sibdane]

I'm not getting my hopes up for top 6 just yet. We need serious strength in depth. I'll have a better feel for where we will finish after this summer transfer window closes. I will say that 7th should be the minimum but not necessarily the expectation.

[Palfy]

7 hours ago, Shukes said:

And we have our points for years dont we?

Surely you can look at the bigger picture and see that although the last third of the season doesn’t suggest consistency, it does show that we are competing against the top six teams. And isn’t our form suggesting we are top four now? Or is that another mythical fact haha.

A lot of fans can’t see past the rebuilding and changes we are making. We have changed manager, players, staff, and it’s taken a season to get the managers vision realised. But you have to give credit where due, and see that we have improved. 

I really struggle to see how you can view last season as better than this? Crazy notion, you should lay of the pop

Well all I can say to that is the league table doesn’t lie, and of course we played better football than last season but we haven’t made no in roads on the top 6 from last season even though we have improved as a team the gulf is still as big. 

And I never drink on a Monday morning before 10:00 am

[Matt]

The form table of 2019 puts us 3rd. Overall only 3 teams had more clean sheets. We’ve instilled an actual work ethic and style of play that gets goals. Despite the dip mid season, we’ve responded very very well and I’m actually positive about next season. 

[MikeO]

6 minutes ago, Matt said:

The form table of 2019 puts us 3rd. Overall only 3 teams had more clean sheets. We’ve instilled an actual work ethic and style of play that gets goals. Despite the dip mid season, we’ve responded very very well and I’m actually positive about next season. 

Where did you see that Matt? We're actually 8th.

[Matt]

1 hour ago, MikeO said:

Where did you see that Matt? We're actually 8th.

Honestly was sure you’d posted it somewhere maybe it was form from March / after the 17 day break? 

[MikeO]

23 minutes ago, Matt said:

Honestly was sure you’d posted it somewhere maybe it was form from March / after the 17 day break? 

Sounds more likely.

[Quinn31]

The path to Champions League, or Top 6, starts with a European ban and/or transfer ban to one or more of the big 6.

[Deacs]

17 hours ago, MikeO said:

Where did you see that Matt? We're actually 8th.

Really highlights how good City were in the second half of the season . We weren’t that far off third though which shows what can be achieved.

[Btay]

4 hours ago, Deacs said:

Really highlights how good City were in the second half of the season . We weren’t that far off third though which shows what can be achieved.

The last 11 we got 21 points.

18 goals for

5 goals against

[Matt]

If someone has the time, can you have a look at games before the first derby and after the 17 day break in Feb? Those 2 periods would reflect our potential quite well I think. 

[MikeO]

1 hour ago, Btay said:

The last 11 we got 21 points.

18 goals for

5 goals against

What Btay said (two farcical self inflicted  losses included)....

1 hour ago, Matt said:

If someone has the time, can you have a look at games before the first derby and after the 17 day break in Feb? Those 2 periods would reflect our potential quite well I think. 

...and before the Livepool game we had 22 points from 13 games.

Added together = 43 points from 24 games = 1.79 ppg which if we'd done all season would've got us 68 points. Top six.

[pete0]

24 minutes ago, MikeO said:

What Btay said (two farcical self inflicted  losses included)....

...and before the Livepool game we had 22 points from 13 games.

Added together = 43 points from 24 games = 1.79 ppg which if we'd done all season would've got us 68 points. Top six.

And the form in the middle, 11 points from 14 games = 0.79 ppg which would have relegated us with 30 points. 

[Matt]

43 minutes ago, MikeO said:

What Btay said (two farcical self inflicted  losses included)....

...and before the Livepool game we had 22 points from 13 games.

Added together = 43 points from 24 games = 1.79 ppg which if we'd done all season would've got us 68 points. Top six.

Cheers mate. Thought as much. 

14 minutes ago, pete0 said:

And the form in the middle, 11 points from 14 games = 0.79 ppg which would have relegated us with 30 points. 

Also true, however not only was that the most congested period, it’s the minority of the season.

For 2/3rds of the season we showed top 6 form. The fact that we went from relegation form during the middle third of the season to top 3 form in the last 3rd is massively encouraging. 

[Deacs]

1 hour ago, Matt said:

Cheers mate. Thought as much. 

Also true, however not only was that the most congested period, it’s the minority of the season.

For 2/3rds of the season we showed top 6 form. The fact that we went from relegation form during the middle third of the season to top 3 form in the last 3rd is massively encouraging. 

That’s the difference from Koeman and Martinez who were unable to turn things around. Makes me optimistic.

[Matt]

1 minute ago, Deacs said:

That’s the difference from Koeman and Martinez who were unable to turn things around. Makes me optimistic.

Exactly, plus Silva et al had to undo all the shite from the previous 2 years. Unlike Martinez, who had a defensive platform to build on, they had a toxic quagmire to build on. Here’s hoping they’ve drained the shite from the club so they can continue to build  

[pete0]

1 hour ago, Matt said:

Also true, however not only was that the most congested period, it’s the minority of the season.

For 2/3rds of the season we showed top 6 form. The fact that we went from relegation form during the middle third of the season to top 3 form in the last 3rd is massively encouraging. 

Start was good, middle was awful (sackably bad), end was good on paper but I'm not convinced by how we played. We're not creating many chances* and struggle if the other team put a bit of effort in. 

*in our biggest win over the period, the 4 nil against united our expected goals was only 1.52 and that's against a team that was all over the shop and not putting any effort in (they ran 9km less than us and their players even apologised about their performance). Looking at expected goals we only managed to be expected to get over 2.5 goals in 3 games all season, compared to less 1.5 in 20 matches. Using the worst of the top six as a yardstick, Man U had an expectation of over 2.5 goals in 10 matches and less than 1.5 in 14 games. 

Also noticed this damning stat to add to Marco's collection. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bet365/status/1093278927563431936

[Matt]

11 minutes ago, pete0 said:

Start was good, middle was awful (sackably bad), end was good on paper but I'm not convinced by how we played. We're not creating many chances* and struggle if the other team put a bit of effort in. 

*in our biggest win over the period, the 4 nil against united our expected goals was only 1.52 and that's against a team that was all over the shop and not putting any effort in (they ran 9km less than us and their players even apologised about their performance). Looking at expected goals we only managed to be expected to get over 2.5 goals in 3 games all season, compared to less 1.5 in 20 matches. Using the worst of the top six as a yardstick, Man U had an expectation of over 2.5 goals in 10 matches and less than 1.5 in 14 games. 

Also noticed this damning stat to add to Marco's collection. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bet365/status/1093278927563431936

You are kidding with that “stat” right?

do you also not recognise that a manager in sackable form turning it around and finishing with the record he did in the last 12 games is not impressive? Or did nothing change in your eyes? If you say nothing changed, you are truly beyond help. 

[pete0]

9 minutes ago, Matt said:

Exactly, plus Silva et al had to undo all the shite from the previous 2 years. Unlike Martinez, who had a defensive platform to build on, they had a toxic quagmire to build on. Here’s hoping they’ve drained the shite from the club so they can continue to build  

Martinez had a good squad but first thing he done was implement his own spine into the team and the players around those that Martinez had have all been replaced with better players bar Coleman.

Martinez created the team around Stones, McCarthy, Barry, Barkley, Lukaku. 

Compare that to Keane, Gomes, Gana, Sigurdssen, Tosun/Richarlison/DCL. 

All the other players around them bar right back (Coleman not being as good as he used too) has been improved on. Pickford, Zouma, Digne, Bernard, Richarlison compared to Howard, Williams and Baines who were all past their best, Mirallas, Deulofeu. 

[Matt]

Just now, pete0 said:

Martinez had a good squad but first thing he done was implement his own spine into the team and the players around those that Martinez had have all been replaced with better players bar Coleman.

Martinez created the team around Stones, McCarthy, Barry, Barkley, Lukaku. 

Compare that to Keane, Gomes, Gana, Sigurdssen, Tosun/Richarlison/DCL. 

All the other players around them bar right back (Coleman not being as good as he used too) has been improved on. Pickford, Zouma, Digne, Bernard, Richarlison compared to Howard, Williams and Baines who were all past their best, Mirallas, Deulofeu. 

What’s your point? The squad was improved, that’s normal. Compare the spine of Martinez to the players who were there 3 years before him and you’ll see a greatly improved squad again. It’s just evolution! 

[pete0]

4 minutes ago, Matt said:

You are kidding with that “stat” right?

do you also not recognise that a manager in sackable form turning it around and finishing with the record he did in the last 12 games is not impressive? Or did nothing change in your eyes? If you say nothing changed, you are truly beyond help. 

I'm still waiting for you to say what changed. As other than the siren and crowd atmosphere there's been little different on the pitch. We still do the same things mostly, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but when it doesn't it's mostly because the other team put a bit of effort in. 

Of the wins against the top 6 that many have made a fuss about we were mostly just lucky with the fixture calendar. We met the three of them at their worst (as we did West Ham, who had Perez in midfield). Even Cardiff beat United away this season (something we've not done against a top 6 since Oviedo beat Moyes' Man United). Talking of Cardiff that were missing their best players too when we played them. 

We had a brilliant first half an hour against Burnley, but then a tense hour seeing the game out. A good draw against Liverpool (although Klopp dropped a bollocks by going defensive). Failed to take advantage of a weakened Spurs with one eye elsewhere and struggled to break down Crystal Palace only creating one chance. Then there's the defeats, completely capitulating against a very poor Newcastle side, losing a 2 nil half time lead for only the second time in our existence, 365 occasions. The Fulham game was embarrassing too, already relegated and beat us just because they wanted it more and our manager stubbornly stuck to the same old formula, it was similar to Martinez at his worst. We just didn't do anything with the ball. Similar could be said about our game against Watford. 

[pete0]

23 minutes ago, Matt said:

What’s your point? The squad was improved, that’s normal. Compare the spine of Martinez to the players who were there 3 years before him and you’ll see a greatly improved squad again. It’s just evolution! 

My point is that the spine is crucial and out current one isn'tt strong enough. We had in most part a solid spine with Moyes. Since the takeover we haven't. We've improved the players around the spine and the squad overall but we've not addressed the most important positions, those that make up the backbone of the team. The reason we've been described as a 'nothing team' this year. 

[Shukes]

59 minutes ago, pete0 said:

Start was good, middle was awful (sackably bad), end was good on paper but I'm not convinced by how we played. We're not creating many chances* and struggle if the other team put a bit of effort in. 

*in our biggest win over the period, the 4 nil against united our expected goals was only 1.52 and that's against a team that was all over the shop and not putting any effort in (they ran 9km less than us and their players even apologised about their performance). Looking at expected goals we only managed to be expected to get over 2.5 goals in 3 games all season, compared to less 1.5 in 20 matches. Using the worst of the top six as a yardstick, Man U had an expectation of over 2.5 goals in 10 matches and less than 1.5 in 14 games. 

Also noticed this damning stat to add to Marco's collection. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bet365/status/1093278927563431936

Just looked at those stats on that link. Wow shows just how well we did doesn’t it.

A team with a higher expected goals get whalloped. 

Your not a half full kinda guy are you PeteO haha!

[StevO]

19 minutes ago, pete0 said:

My point is that the spine is crucial and out current one isn'ttt strong enough. We had in most part a solid spine with Moyes. Since the takeover we haven't. We've improved the players around the spine and the squad overall but we've not addressed the most important positions, those that make up the backbone of the team. The reason we've been described as a 'nothing team' this year. 

Who described us as a nothing team this year?