Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
markjazzbassist

The Run-in and Europa

Will we qualify for Europa  

15 members have voted

  1. 1. Will we qualify for Europa

    • No
    • Yes regardless of City's Ban (5-7th place depending on FA cup results)
    • Yes only if City's Ban is upheld (5-8th place depending on FA cup results)


Recommended Posts

Someone mentioned in another thread if we could make Europe.  I said i thought our run-in was tough, but wanted to start a new thread to see what people think.  For starters Wolves and above i think are beyond catching at this point, so i've left them out.  Here are the run ins for teams vying for Europe places 6-12

 

Current Table

 

image.thumb.png.e55dd66ba2be3512cb81b56822617d34.png

 

Everton to play - Leicester (H), Spurs (A), Soton (H), Wolves (A), Villa (H), Sheffield (A), Bournemouth (H) [4 teams in the top 12]

Palace to play - Leicester (A), Chelsea (H), Villa (A), Man U (H), Wolves (A), Spurs (H)  [5 teams in the top 12]

Arsenal to play - Norwich (H), Wolves (A), Leicester (H), Spurs (A), Liverpool (H), Villa (A), Watford (H)  [4 teams in the top 12]

Sheffield to play - Spurs (H), Burnley (A), Wolves (H), Chelsea (H), Leicester (A), Everton (H), Soton (A)  [6 teams in the top 12]

Burnley to play - Sheffield (H), West Ham (A), Liverpool (A), Wolves (H), Norwich (A), Brighton (H)  [3 teams in the top 12]

Spurs to play - Sheffield (A), Everton (H), Bournemouth (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leicester (H), Palace (A)  [4 teams in the top 12]

Man U to play - Brighton (A), Bournemouth (H), Villa (A), Soton (H), Palace (A), West Ham (H), Leicester (A)  [1 team in the top 12]

 

First Impressions - United have by far the easiest schedule left and Sheffield/Palace have the most difficult.  There is a lot of interplay between these teams battling it out for Europa, those games will obviously matter a lot.  If we are going by schedule alone it looks like it could be a real battle for that 7th spot (if available) if Wolves continue their nice form (which i assume they will), and United continue their form as well (even if they don't it's an easy schedule).  If City's ban is upheld that 8th spot will be highly contested as well.  It should make for an interesting end of the campaign.

 

Conclusion - We are in the mix and it's possible, I'm gonna say if City's ban is upheld we can qualify.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It all depends on our next result. If we lose that, it’s over until next year. If we can grab three points from it... not o it does it give us three more points, but it also puts pressure on Leicester to push on for points to secure top four, and they play a lot of our competitors for Europe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its so disappointing looking at the league table and seeing Liverpool on top and the likes of Sheff Utd, Burnley and Palace above us.

I look at this as to who is in form because these end of season fixtures are a bit of a lottery. Form teams with a little bit of something to play for can beat teams with none. It is fair to say we are in mixed form. We are tough to beat but we aren't creating a lot either. I suspect we will see a fair few low scoring draws before the end of the season.

I would agree that Wolves are home and hosed. They are a solid team, in great form and whilst they don't score loads, they keep plenty of clean sheets. We aren't going to make 11 points on them.

I also think Utd and Spurs will see the season through to finish at least 7th. Utd have a lot of goals in their squad with Fernandes and Pogba fit and Rashford, Martial and Oghalo all causing enough problems to teams. As they did at Norwich, they don't have to play well to win. Spurs are a little less predictable, but they are fairly solid themselves. I don't see them winning all their remaining games or anything like that, but I don't see them losing any either. That table doesn't show it but there is a gap in class between 7th and above.

That leaves a bun fight for the 'maybe' 8th place. All 4 of those teams are solid enough but in mixed form. Palace don't score enough, neither do Burnley and they are running out of forwards, Sheffield Utd have come back in crap form and Arsenal are an unknown quantity.

Our minimum aim should be to finish 8th at worst and then if one of Spurs / Utd slip up, we can be hot on their heels to nab that last traditional European position.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Bailey said:

Its so disappointing looking at the league table and seeing Liverpool on top and the likes of Sheff Utd, Burnley and Palace above us.

I look at this as to who is in form because these end of season fixtures are a bit of a lottery. Form teams with a little bit of something to play for can beat teams with none. It is fair to say we are in mixed form. We are tough to beat but we aren't creating a lot either. I suspect we will see a fair few low scoring draws before the end of the season.

I would agree that Wolves are home and hosed. They are a solid team, in great form and whilst they don't score loads, they keep plenty of clean sheets. We aren't going to make 11 points on them.

I also think Utd and Spurs will see the season through to finish at least 7th. Utd have a lot of goals in their squad with Fernandes and Pogba fit and Rashford, Martial and Oghalo all causing enough problems to teams. As they did at Norwich, they don't have to play well to win. Spurs are a little less predictable, but they are fairly solid themselves. I don't see them winning all their remaining games or anything like that, but I don't see them losing any either. That table doesn't show it but there is a gap in class between 7th and above.

That leaves a bun fight for the 'maybe' 8th place. All 4 of those teams are solid enough but in mixed form. Palace don't score enough, neither do Burnley and they are running out of forwards, Sheffield Utd have come back in crap form and Arsenal are an unknown quantity.

Our minimum aim should be to finish 8th at worst and then if one of Spurs / Utd slip up, we can be hot on their heels to nab that last traditional European position.

yes it is disappointing seeing those clubs above us.  with any luck we get points off Leicester and go above palace and we never worry about them again due to their form and tough schedule.  sheffield had that high they were riding and had the season not been stopped they would have been in 6th/7th.  but it stopped, they lost their momentum and now they are just another burnley tactically and i think they won't ever reach those heights again.  i can see them slipping below us to be honest. tough run in and squad bereft of talent.

 

spurs arsenal burnley and us (if we can get points off leicester).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 30/06/2020 at 09:40, c1982 said:

I get so annoyed by our ‘if onlys’ - the silly 2 goals vs Newcastle, the goal that should have been vs Man U - that’s 4 points that would have had us talking about a late surge for Champions League!

Don't forget about Brighton. F***ing Brighton. VAR robbery unlike any other. The Premier League even said so in an official statement. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, AlbanyNYToffee said:

Don't forget about Brighton. F***ing Brighton. VAR robbery unlike any other. The Premier League even said so in an official statement. 

VAR are a joke, how does that decision take nearly 3 minutes? Any other team and the pen today is given within 30 seconds easily. Can't help but think they look for reasons not to give us decisions. Thought it was gonna be spurs all over again the longer they made us wait. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, pete0 said:

VAR are a joke, how does that decision take nearly 3 minutes? Any other team and the pen today is given within 30 seconds easily. Can't help but think they look for reasons not to give us decisions. Thought it was gonna be spurs all over again the longer they made us wait. 

Not sure if you're watching the West Ham / Chelsea game but it's just as bad there. 3 and a half minutes to determine that Antonio (who was lying down on the floor) was offside by a head. 

Agree with you about Spurs, thought it was a stonewall penalty but would have bet my mortgage they wasn't going to give it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Zoo 2.0 said:

Not sure if you're watching the West Ham / Chelsea game but it's just as bad there. 3 and a half minutes to determine that Antonio (who was lying down on the floor) was offside by a head. 

Agree with you about Spurs, thought it was a stonewall penalty but would have bet my mortgage they wasn't going to give it.

Did you not think it was offside?

Thought it was stone wall for me, clearly influencing play by lying in front of the ball. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, pete0 said:

VAR are a joke, how does that decision take nearly 3 minutes? Any other team and the pen today is given within 30 seconds easily. Can't help but think they look for reasons not to give us decisions. Thought it was gonna be spurs all over again the longer they made us wait. 

I was saying the same to my mate. They aren’t looking at if it’s a penalty, they are looking how to say it’s not. I hate playing the victim card, but VAR has been shite for us, I just expect bad news now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, barryj said:

.......and? 

Not beyond the realms of possibility but my money would be on 9th place if pushed for a prediction. If we come away from Spurs with three points I'll revise in an upward direction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So a very good first three games, seven points from nine including four off top three teams, we couldn't realistically have hoped for better. Now we have left three (easy on paper) home games and three difficult away ones; the three at home I'd say are "must wins" which would give us 53 points which almost certainly wouldn't be enough so we're going to have to pick up points from the away games. Wolves are looking very strong so I think our best hopes are at Spurs and Sheff Utd who have been pretty poor until they beat Spurs on Thursday, if we could get 3 or 4 points to put us on 56/57 it might just be enough.

But as we're Everton we'll probably lose a couple of the home matches, it's what we do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at wolves performance today and the rest of their fixtures they could have a massive tumble down the table.  

Big fixture for us tomorrow. Either team loses and they'll most likely be out the race for a Europa spot. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, pete0 said:

Looking at wolves performance today and the rest of their fixtures they could have a massive tumble down the table.  

Big fixture for us tomorrow. Either team loses and they'll most likely be out the race for a Europa spot. 

I appreciate the days tend to melt together at the moment so it's hard to tell what day of the week it is but we're not playing 'til Monday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just need to keep going how we are going.

Big 3 points on offer against spurs.

Arsenal are probably in the best form around us but have a tough tough run. 6th spot could very well be on...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Btay said:

Just need to keep going how we are going.

Big 3 points on offer against spurs.

Arsenal are probably in the best form around us but have a tough tough run. 6th spot could very well be on...

Didn’t Arsenal lose a few on the bounce before the Wolves game? I’ll be disappointed if we finish below Arsenal. 
 

Must beat Spurs now, and beat Sheffield United, and if we can get a point out if Wolves we have a chance. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Btay said:

Just need to keep going how we are going.

Big 3 points on offer against spurs.

Arsenal are probably in the best form around us but have a tough tough run. 6th spot could very well be on...

I think there’s only one point between Arsenal Wolves Burnley Leicester and Sheffield Utd since the restart, so not one team standing out bar us in that bunch of seven teams fighting for European spot. 
I’ve possibly got that totally wrong it may include a couple of games before lockdown, but who really gives a damn, it’s still going to be close between a fair few teams at the end of the season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@markjazzbassist table to start this thread was so helpful - thought it would be nice to have an update prior to today's match.

image.png.525c4c1838835397353040904470ee80.png

Everton to play - Spurs (A), Soton (H), Wolves (A), Villa (H), Sheffield (A), Bournemouth (H)

Palace to play - Chelsea (H), Villa (A), Man U (H), Wolves (A), Spurs (H)  

Arsenal to play - Leicester (H), Spurs (A), Liverpool (H), Villa (A), Watford (H)

Sheffield to play - Wolves (H), Chelsea (H), Leicester (A), Everton (H), Soton (A)

Burnley to play - West Ham (A), Liverpool (A), Wolves (H), Norwich (A), Brighton (H) 

Spurs to play - Everton (H), Bournemouth (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leicester (H), Palace (A)

Wolves to play - SheffU (A), Everton (H), Burnley (A), Palace (H), Chelsea (A)

There is no catching Utd anymore. Wolves however is possible - if we win today and Thursday we go to Molineux at worst 5 points back. 

Even if we lose today 7th is still possible. Have to beat Wolves and Sheffield and hope Arsenal slip up on their run in. Palace and Burnley are hanging around admirably but I just don't see them as threats. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tonight's game with Spurs is key I think. I see them as the ones who are likely to get 7th spot (Us catching Wolves for 6th spot is unrealistic). Their remaining games after us are straightforward I'd say.

I think Palace, Arsenal, Sheffield and Burnley will drop points in their remaining games - Burnley possibly have the easier run in of all. Sheffield and Arsenal have tough matches left. We do too, with either European contenders or fighters to avoid relegation - not easy. I think 12 pts is possible for us from the remaining games unless we go mental and have one hell of a finish to the season for us - will that be enough to beat Spurs (if we lose tonight) or Arsenal? I'm not sure. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m still thinking about this season, but the run-in part, not the Europa part.  Finish as high as possible, top half, long shot for 7-8, and if 7th gets us Europa, fine.  We can still move up, but only if we take 3 points away to both Wolves and Sheffield United.  Unlikely, and realistically, we’re closer to 14th than to 9th.  Goodison opponents are weaker teams, though Southhampton will see Thursday’s match as big opportunity in their goal to finish top half.  And Villa and Bournemouth will be desperate to stay up.

With matches coming every 3 days, squad rotation is a big issue.  I guess Gomes, Davies, Sigurdsson are the CMs, so can’t start all 3.  If Gordon continues to impress, he’s a candidate for starting every match.  Give Digne a break soon, start Baines.  Give Coleman a break, if Kenny is available.  If absolutely necessary, play Cuco over Sidibé, who should get some time at RW, but is no RB.  How long is Holgate out?  Are we down to Keane and Mina for remainder of season?  Let Kean start for one of the strikers, sub him out in second half if he looks lost.

Any chance Bernard would be more effective as a 10 than on wing?  Clever dribbler, maybe passer, but he is too easily physically overmatched isolated on wing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Elston Gunnn said:

I’m still thinking about this season, but the run-in part, not the Europa part.  Finish as high as possible, top half, long shot for 7-8, and if 7th gets us Europa, fine.  We can still move up, but only if we take 3 points away to both Wolves and Sheffield United.  Unlikely, and realistically, we’re closer to 14th than to 9th.  Goodison opponents are weaker teams, though Southhampton will see Thursday’s match as big opportunity in their goal to finish top half.  And Villa and Bournemouth will be desperate to stay up.

With matches coming every 3 days, squad rotation is a big issue.  I guess Gomes, Davies, Sigurdsson are the CMs, so can’t start all 3.  If Gordon continues to impress, he’s a candidate for starting every match.  Give Digne a break soon, start Baines.  Give Coleman a break, if Kenny is available.  If absolutely necessary, play Cuco over Sidibé, who should get some time at RW, but is no RB.  How long is Holgate out?  Are we down to Keane and Mina for remainder of season?  Let Kean start for one of the strikers, sub him out in second half if he looks lost.

Any chance Bernard would be more effective as a 10 than on wing?  Clever dribbler, maybe passer, but he is too easily physically overmatched isolated on wing.

Squad rotation will be a big problem for us over the coming games. Gomes already looks leggy, Coleman is surely going to need to be rotated and if Richarlison keeps getting lumps kicked out of him, he probably will too.

Im not sure Digne needs a break though, he has hardly been rampaging forward and he is in good form. If necessary I'd rather have Baines rotate with Coleman on the right given that the other options to play RB are... erm... dreadful.

The midfield is a problem, a huge problem. Davies doesnt seem to cope with playing 2 games in 3 days, Siggy doesnt do anything anyway and Gomes is getting worse with every game. I would say Iwobi has much for going for him in midfield than Gordon. He might have run around a bit last night but he is weak and naive (as you would expect for a player of his age) and I don't see that being a position he can hold down.

In respect of Bernard, I would argue the opposite. If they are kicking lumps of Richarlison when he drops into the 10 position, they will break poor little Bernie.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ha!  No, no, no.  I thought he was with us until season’s end, but I guess without an interim contract extension, he’s free to sign with Barça, Dortmund, PSG, whomever.

So, is Kenny eligible now?  Don’t know whether Coleman can last with matches so jammed up, and Sidibé’s no RB.  Bailey posted above that he might want to see Baines to relieve Coleman at RB.  I’ll hope Kenny can rejoin us for July.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, markjazzbassist said:

might as well just close this thread, we need to fight to just get top 10 and get as much TV money as possible.

 

16 hours ago, Bailey said:

Maybe we just need to change the name to the run-in and the top 10 challenge! 

Four wins would possibly be enough hope not dead yet; being read the last rites though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...