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The Run-in and Europa

Will we qualify for Europa  

11 members have voted

  1. 1. Will we qualify for Europa

    • No
    • Yes regardless of City's Ban (5-7th place depending on FA cup results)
      0
    • Yes only if City's Ban is upheld (5-8th place depending on FA cup results)


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Someone mentioned in another thread if we could make Europe.  I said i thought our run-in was tough, but wanted to start a new thread to see what people think.  For starters Wolves and above i think are beyond catching at this point, so i've left them out.  Here are the run ins for teams vying for Europe places 6-12

 

Current Table

 

image.thumb.png.e55dd66ba2be3512cb81b56822617d34.png

 

Everton to play - Leicester (H), Spurs (A), Soton (H), Wolves (A), Villa (H), Sheffield (A), Bournemouth (H) [4 teams in the top 12]

Palace to play - Leicester (A), Chelsea (H), Villa (A), Man U (H), Wolves (A), Spurs (H)  [5 teams in the top 12]

Arsenal to play - Norwich (H), Wolves (A), Leicester (H), Spurs (A), Liverpool (H), Villa (A), Watford (H)  [4 teams in the top 12]

Sheffield to play - Spurs (H), Burnley (A), Wolves (H), Chelsea (H), Leicester (A), Everton (H), Soton (A)  [6 teams in the top 12]

Burnley to play - Sheffield (H), West Ham (A), Liverpool (A), Wolves (H), Norwich (A), Brighton (H)  [3 teams in the top 12]

Spurs to play - Sheffield (A), Everton (H), Bournemouth (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leicester (H), Palace (A)  [4 teams in the top 12]

Man U to play - Brighton (A), Bournemouth (H), Villa (A), Soton (H), Palace (A), West Ham (H), Leicester (A)  [1 team in the top 12]

 

First Impressions - United have by far the easiest schedule left and Sheffield/Palace have the most difficult.  There is a lot of interplay between these teams battling it out for Europa, those games will obviously matter a lot.  If we are going by schedule alone it looks like it could be a real battle for that 7th spot (if available) if Wolves continue their nice form (which i assume they will), and United continue their form as well (even if they don't it's an easy schedule).  If City's ban is upheld that 8th spot will be highly contested as well.  It should make for an interesting end of the campaign.

 

Conclusion - We are in the mix and it's possible, I'm gonna say if City's ban is upheld we can qualify.

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It all depends on our next result. If we lose that, it’s over until next year. If we can grab three points from it... not o it does it give us three more points, but it also puts pressure on Leicester to push on for points to secure top four, and they play a lot of our competitors for Europe.

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Its so disappointing looking at the league table and seeing Liverpool on top and the likes of Sheff Utd, Burnley and Palace above us.

I look at this as to who is in form because these end of season fixtures are a bit of a lottery. Form teams with a little bit of something to play for can beat teams with none. It is fair to say we are in mixed form. We are tough to beat but we aren't creating a lot either. I suspect we will see a fair few low scoring draws before the end of the season.

I would agree that Wolves are home and hosed. They are a solid team, in great form and whilst they don't score loads, they keep plenty of clean sheets. We aren't going to make 11 points on them.

I also think Utd and Spurs will see the season through to finish at least 7th. Utd have a lot of goals in their squad with Fernandes and Pogba fit and Rashford, Martial and Oghalo all causing enough problems to teams. As they did at Norwich, they don't have to play well to win. Spurs are a little less predictable, but they are fairly solid themselves. I don't see them winning all their remaining games or anything like that, but I don't see them losing any either. That table doesn't show it but there is a gap in class between 7th and above.

That leaves a bun fight for the 'maybe' 8th place. All 4 of those teams are solid enough but in mixed form. Palace don't score enough, neither do Burnley and they are running out of forwards, Sheffield Utd have come back in crap form and Arsenal are an unknown quantity.

Our minimum aim should be to finish 8th at worst and then if one of Spurs / Utd slip up, we can be hot on their heels to nab that last traditional European position.

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15 minutes ago, Bailey said:

Its so disappointing looking at the league table and seeing Liverpool on top and the likes of Sheff Utd, Burnley and Palace above us.

I look at this as to who is in form because these end of season fixtures are a bit of a lottery. Form teams with a little bit of something to play for can beat teams with none. It is fair to say we are in mixed form. We are tough to beat but we aren't creating a lot either. I suspect we will see a fair few low scoring draws before the end of the season.

I would agree that Wolves are home and hosed. They are a solid team, in great form and whilst they don't score loads, they keep plenty of clean sheets. We aren't going to make 11 points on them.

I also think Utd and Spurs will see the season through to finish at least 7th. Utd have a lot of goals in their squad with Fernandes and Pogba fit and Rashford, Martial and Oghalo all causing enough problems to teams. As they did at Norwich, they don't have to play well to win. Spurs are a little less predictable, but they are fairly solid themselves. I don't see them winning all their remaining games or anything like that, but I don't see them losing any either. That table doesn't show it but there is a gap in class between 7th and above.

That leaves a bun fight for the 'maybe' 8th place. All 4 of those teams are solid enough but in mixed form. Palace don't score enough, neither do Burnley and they are running out of forwards, Sheffield Utd have come back in crap form and Arsenal are an unknown quantity.

Our minimum aim should be to finish 8th at worst and then if one of Spurs / Utd slip up, we can be hot on their heels to nab that last traditional European position.

yes it is disappointing seeing those clubs above us.  with any luck we get points off Leicester and go above palace and we never worry about them again due to their form and tough schedule.  sheffield had that high they were riding and had the season not been stopped they would have been in 6th/7th.  but it stopped, they lost their momentum and now they are just another burnley tactically and i think they won't ever reach those heights again.  i can see them slipping below us to be honest. tough run in and squad bereft of talent.

 

spurs arsenal burnley and us (if we can get points off leicester).

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On 30/06/2020 at 09:40, c1982 said:

I get so annoyed by our ‘if onlys’ - the silly 2 goals vs Newcastle, the goal that should have been vs Man U - that’s 4 points that would have had us talking about a late surge for Champions League!

Don't forget about Brighton. F***ing Brighton. VAR robbery unlike any other. The Premier League even said so in an official statement. 

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8 minutes ago, AlbanyNYToffee said:

Don't forget about Brighton. F***ing Brighton. VAR robbery unlike any other. The Premier League even said so in an official statement. 

VAR are a joke, how does that decision take nearly 3 minutes? Any other team and the pen today is given within 30 seconds easily. Can't help but think they look for reasons not to give us decisions. Thought it was gonna be spurs all over again the longer they made us wait. 

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22 minutes ago, pete0 said:

VAR are a joke, how does that decision take nearly 3 minutes? Any other team and the pen today is given within 30 seconds easily. Can't help but think they look for reasons not to give us decisions. Thought it was gonna be spurs all over again the longer they made us wait. 

Not sure if you're watching the West Ham / Chelsea game but it's just as bad there. 3 and a half minutes to determine that Antonio (who was lying down on the floor) was offside by a head. 

Agree with you about Spurs, thought it was a stonewall penalty but would have bet my mortgage they wasn't going to give it.

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Just now, Zoo 2.0 said:

Not sure if you're watching the West Ham / Chelsea game but it's just as bad there. 3 and a half minutes to determine that Antonio (who was lying down on the floor) was offside by a head. 

Agree with you about Spurs, thought it was a stonewall penalty but would have bet my mortgage they wasn't going to give it.

Did you not think it was offside?

Thought it was stone wall for me, clearly influencing play by lying in front of the ball. 

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3 hours ago, pete0 said:

VAR are a joke, how does that decision take nearly 3 minutes? Any other team and the pen today is given within 30 seconds easily. Can't help but think they look for reasons not to give us decisions. Thought it was gonna be spurs all over again the longer they made us wait. 

I was saying the same to my mate. They aren’t looking at if it’s a penalty, they are looking how to say it’s not. I hate playing the victim card, but VAR has been shite for us, I just expect bad news now. 

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13 hours ago, barryj said:

.......and? 

Not beyond the realms of possibility but my money would be on 9th place if pushed for a prediction. If we come away from Spurs with three points I'll revise in an upward direction.

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