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What are our Realistic Expectations for 2020/21?


RuffRob

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We have got an idea of our new look player and are seeing what others have been up to in the transfer market - what is every bodies expectations for next season?

I see the top 4 of Man City, Liverpool, Man U and Chelsea being a pretty hard nut for anybody to crack. There wage bills, quality of players and depth are simply on another level to ours and others in the chasing pack. Grabbing a top 4 place would be considered punching well above our weight and I think it would need either Man U or Chelsea to have a wobbly season, but think both have been 'building' over the past couple of season, so actually don't see them having difficult seasons, with both doing better than they did last year :( 

Looking at the the next group of teams (who on paper should be finish between 5th and 9th) realistically we will be considering ourselves in the group of Arsenal, Leicester City, Wolves and Spurs.  I have listed the club in what I think will be the order in which the will finish. 

Spurs where poor yesterday and looking at their starting 11 it doesn't really instil that much fear  - I think they are a team on a downward spiral rather than upward, so see us finishing ahead of them. 

Arsenal seem to be the opposite - looks like Arteta is doing a good job at a big club, have some cracking players and they seem to be buying good quality as well this summer, they will also be looking to push on after the FA cup win. I think 5th place beckons for anybody who can finish ahead of Arsenal this season, and see then with the biggest chance of crashing the top 4.  

So that leaves Wolves and Leicester, both teams have been consistently good over the past few seasons, and see both battling again for these positions this season. I think given the money we have been spending and that we have brought one of the best managers in the work to the club, we should be looking to finish ahead of Wolves, as good as they have been. So that leaves Leicester City. 

Jamie Vardy epitomises Leicester City, he is quite unbelievable and I can't believe he ended last year as the Premiership top scorer. Somehow I have expected him to just drop off (since Leicester won the league) but he never has, as was just as good last year at 33 than he was 5 years ago. I think Leicester's season will depend a lot again on Vardy and his ability to get the goals again in the year of his 34th Birthday or will he finally slow down!!! Couple of pens at the weekend have got him off to a good start. 

So based on this I think

4th or better is pretty unrealistic, but we can always dream, freak seasons do happen!!! best season in a generation 

5th if things go well and key players remain fit this is obtainable - it would be a very good season

6th would be considered an good season and something to really build off

7th would be considered much improved from last season and an acceptable move in the right direction

8th ultimately disappointed, but would I hope we would be very close to 60 points and only 8th because those ahead had just had very good seasons. 

9th the absolute minimum that would have been expected at the start of the season even if we have injury problems!! and what we should have been last season!!!! very disappointed unless we won a cup!!! 

 

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I'd agree with that @RuffRob. Its going to be a tough year for every team. Arsenal and Leicester have beaten the promoted sides by 3 goals, Wolves already 2 up inside 10 minutes at Sheffield Utd. 

I would question whether Chelsea might struggle with intergrating their new signings but if they get a new keeper they will improve straight away. If they click they could get closer to the title. 

I very much hope we are in with a shout of some European football come the last couple of games, which ever competition that may be! 

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43 minutes ago, Matt said:

Can’t judge until Feb, always been my approach. But for a change I feel positive 

It's definitely a lot easier to judge in Feb as by then almost 2/3 of the season has already been played!!! 

I am just wondering what people's general 'expectations' of the club are from the very beginning of the season? a bit more challenging.

What would people consider as acceptable and realistic at this moment in time?.  As Bailey said its going to be a tough year for all the decent teams all the way down to 9th. Think there could be a fairly fine margin between 5th and 9th position - one would be a great season and one would be a disappointment. It will be interesting to look back come May to see how deluded we are at the moment 😂

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Can we ban @RuffRob for posting pictures of Liverpool winning the title please? I am in denial, it never happened!

🥴

On topic, I would take anything that would give us European football league wise. Top 4 would be beyond my wildest expectations, I'd get Carlo tattooed onto my back if it happened. Realistically I think we should be aiming for 6th-8th in a similar mould to what Wolves and Sheffield United have done in recent seasons. They have shown that anyone can get there with the right tactics and attitude. 

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Realistically speaking 6th. We have strengthened enough for that to happen. 

Id like to see us push for a top 4 spot. There are many teams in transition around there who may have an off season. I was saying to a mate before the game I predict jose to be one of the first to go, I really dont see Spurs having a good season. Chelsea and Lampard have a lot to prove which will put pressure on them, and dont have the best defence - however i do think they will do well. Arsenal also a lot to prove with another dodgy defence. United can be up and down so how they do is anyones guess, i think OGS can be quite naive in his approach at times. 

To break into that top 4 we need to pounce on the mistakes United, Spurs and Arsenal make and go about our business quietly. A bit like Leicester last season who will be disappointed to have trailed off towards the end. 

On the flip side the competitive nature of the league will be there with Leicester and Wolves with the exact aims as ours - two really good teams we have to beat when our turn comes.

6th would be acceptable, 7th-8th would be passable with another summer for Carlo to build his team. Anything more than 6th is a bonus, anything lower than 8th would mean teams like Burnley, Sheffield, Palace, Southampton would have better seasons than is which would be unacceptable. 

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3 hours ago, RuffRob said:

8th ultimately disappointed, but would I hope we would be very close to 60 points and only 8th because those ahead had just had very good seasons. 

I wouldnt be too disheartened with 8th. I agree it would be disappointing however Wolves and Leicester have been building for awhile and heading in the right direction. Both of these teams are really well balanced and have some very dangerous players. To think we are currently better than them would be naive. 

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 For me, i just want us to be competitive and i feel for the first time in a long, long time we will be. Spurs i got up at 1:30am to watch live and enjoyed it. Put the game on again last night and re watched it - i cant remember the last time i have done that. 

We have signed 3 very, very good players but the likes of Richarlison & DCL could explode this year and have huge seasons. 15 shots against spurs, away - lets just let that sink in. Id love to challenge the top 4, win a cup, finally beat Liverpool and i genuinely believe we can do it.  

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1 hour ago, MC11 said:

We should be looking to get into the Europa, a top 6 finish and a good cup run maybe even a win is what we should be aiming for. 
 

Unfortunately I don’t see Carlo settling for a 7th place finish. I think he’d walk if that was the case 

Thats the right attitude to have to be honest though. We still need another CB though as we are way to thin for a whole season.

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It depends on whether or not we focus. If we strive solely to finish in the top five, I genuinely believe we’ll do it. If we waste effort and risk players in other ventures, it will cost us. Now is not the time to believe a Mickey Mouse Cup is a route to Europe. Leave that to the lesser teams. Place every effort and all our focus in once again becoming a powerhouse in the league. 

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30 minutes ago, Cornish Steve said:

How soon we forget. Getting into Europe set us backward the last time. Europe must be because we’re strong enough for it, not just so we can say the word ‘Europe’.  So what? Bala plays in Europe. 

We made it far with Martinez and were destroying top teams (Wolfsburg with kev de Bruyne) while at it.  We handled that well.  Koeman we had the group of death, Atalanta and Lyon are still doing well to this day.  With a cup winning manager and players in the squad now I’m not worried in the least.

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I'm feeling confident after the Spurs game but top 4 or even 6 is tough.

I'm going to say we can make top 6.

I'm hoping we can go all the way in a cup, very difficult of course as you will always end up having to play at least one of the top 4 if you want to win it.  We are well capable of beating anyone on our day though and I'm going to be confident and say we can win a cup.  Either will do!

I think saying Carlo would walk if we finished below 7th feels poor on his part, he's been backed to buy the players he wants, he's got a strong team and if the team doesn't hit the heights that he wants it to then that's in no small part down to his management of what he's got.  If we perform well, show plenty of improvement and look close to pushing for top 5 spots then he'd surely want to carry on.  Look at Bielsa at Leeds, he pushed them on brilliantly in his first season but didn't get promotion, I'm sure he could have gone elsewhere but he had an unfinished job and pushed on to get them a brilliant promotion season.

James I feel is more of a risk to lose with an unsatisfactory season.  The fact he has taken a 2 year contract "with option for a 3rd" would suggest we've sold him the clubs dream of success, he's bought in but only to the point of wanting to see it.  If we finish 8th with no Europe and not enough to suggest we're going to be major contenders in to the  next season then he won't be signing up for a 3rd season.  At which point we'd have to sell at a reduced price because of it being the final year of his contract.  This makes his contract a fair risk meaning they really have to back Carlo with any other players he needs if they can be afforded and they have to push to do well on all fronts.

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2 hours ago, FairWooney said:

 

James I feel is more of a risk to lose with an unsatisfactory season.  The fact he has taken a 2 year contract "with option for a 3rd" would suggest we've sold him the clubs dream of success, he's bought in but only to the point of wanting to see it. 

I believe its a 'club' option of a 3rd season as opposed to a player option. So Everton a little more in the driving seat on this. 

 

Sounds like most of us are on the same page - 6th or 7th been a realistic target, anything better being a bonus. 

When you look at it on paper and most players are fit, we now have a pretty decent match day squad of players to put out along with a top manager, so we do have the ingredients to have a good season. I do like DCL, but think we still lack that 20 goal a year striker - imagine us with our very own Salah, Agureo, Vardy, Kane or Aubameyang. If we do get to the 6th or 7th this season, that is the type of player we are going to then need next season if DCL or Kean don't develop in to this type of player. DCL off to a good start this year (which I was very pleased about- as will do his confidence good after a blanking following lockdown) 

There are two things I would really like to see this season: 

1. consistent commitment and passion from the players in every game - I can tolerate losing if the players have put a proper shift in, 

2. to lose the inferiority complex the club seem to have hanging over then when we play a top 6 side (the omens are better after the Spurs match). That feeling that we have already somehow been beaten before a ball is kicked. Liverpool in the FA Cup last season being the stand out example. Lose this donkey of our back will go a long way to use moving up the table.

Looking at the fixture list we now have a month (four games) before we face Liverpool as the first 'big game'. I would be nice to be going against them simply with a whole new attitude in the squad. It is also interesting that we play all Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Man U and Arsenal at home before the turn of the year and then them all away in the New Year. So plenty of time for the squad to 'gel' before we start playing any away games to what on paper are the top 5 clubs.

 

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I could see DCL becoming a 20 a season player.

I also think Richarlison could get 15-20 with the kind of service he was getting from James at the weekend.  He found so much space out there and can run at the last man and pick off the shot.  I think he will really be aided by having a stronger midfield in front of him and should cut a less frustrated figure.

I'd expect 10 goals from James from his quality and the positions he was taking up.

That could be a decent return from those 3, then you have the goals chipped in by the defenders and Doucoure and the backup players like Bernard, Gordon (hopefully), Sigurdson (maybe).  Gomez doesn't put many away but he can hopefully chip in with a couple.

I don't really think he'll win it but 80/1 with Bet365 on DCL winning golden boot is a massive price in my eyes.

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20 minutes ago, FairWooney said:

I could see DCL becoming a 20 a season player.

I also think Richarlison could get 15-20 with the kind of service he was getting from James at the weekend.  He found so much space out there and can run at the last man and pick off the shot.  I think he will really be aided by having a stronger midfield in front of him and should cut a less frustrated figure.

I'd expect 10 goals from James from his quality and the positions he was taking up.

That could be a decent return from those 3, then you have the goals chipped in by the defenders and Doucoure and the backup players like Bernard, Gordon (hopefully), Sigurdson (maybe).  Gomez doesn't put many away but he can hopefully chip in with a couple.

I don't really think he'll win it but 80/1 with Bet365 on DCL winning golden boot is a massive price in my eyes.

I still don't see that type of return from DCL (20), albeit it is certainly a lot more likely given the players around him now. His best way of scoring that many goals is being able to win headers like he did against Spurs because that is his best asset.

Bearing in mind he scored a goal almost over the line and one blocked keeper clearance last year he scored 13 goals and he should have still scored 3.62 more goals based on his stats from open play. That doesn't include the times when he should have got off a shot but didn't. Of the top 5 players in the scoring charts last season only Salah under performed from open play scoring 1.66 less goals than he should have from open play. The others who were Vardy (over performed by 4.6 goals) Aubamayang (4.42 goals), Ings (6.46 goals) and Sterling (2.40) were all comfortably outperforming their position and more importantly, they have a history of doing so.

Richarlison on the other hand scored 4.21 goals more than he should have last season and has outperformed his position in open play since joining Everton. Interestingly Kean outperformed his stats at Juventus but under performed here last season. Personally I would want a lot bigger odds on DCL for all that he really should beat last seasons haul.

 

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45 minutes ago, FairWooney said:

 

I don't really think he'll win it but 80/1 with Bet365 on DCL winning golden boot is a massive price in my eyes.

Shame he wasn't our penalty taker. Taking pens is a massive advantage for golden boot chasers. Vardy had 4 last season and already has 2 this. Has to be worth a 3 or 4 goal advantage for the eventual winner most seasons.

I really do hope DCL becomes a 20 goal a season player - as we will need that to progress in the coming years. 

 

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I think you will find DCL is being used perfectly. He is a central point that needs to be defended and marked. This allows Richarlison to constantly get space to receive a pass out wide.... as perfectly illustrated several time’s against Spurs. 
 

I would be happy if they both hit 15+, with other players chipping in. We can’t afford to play to get our striker the golden boot, we need to perform as a team, just like on Sunday.

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20 hours ago, Cornish Steve said:

It depends on whether or not we focus. If we strive solely to finish in the top five, I genuinely believe we’ll do it. If we waste effort and risk players in other ventures, it will cost us. Now is not the time to believe a Mickey Mouse Cup is a route to Europe. Leave that to the lesser teams. Place every effort and all our focus in once again becoming a powerhouse in the league. 

I know I cause frustration every time I make this point, but it's so important (in life, in business, in sport, in everything). We succeed when we focus! What exactly do we want: to win a cup wth virtually no prize money just so we can claim, like Bala or New Saints, that we're "in Europe" or to become a powerhouse team once again, earn many millions more for finishing in the top four, and genuinely earn our right to play in Europe because we're good enough? We have to choose, because a lack of focus will mean we achieve neither - or the wrong one.

In Martinez's first year, we finished fifth, thrashed Arsenal at a critical juncture, and genuinely thought we might qualify for the Champion's League. That was with a different owner and much less in the way of financial resources. Now we have a manager who's won it all, who can attract the biggest names, and has already proved we can beat top teams on their own turf. If we focus, focus, focus, we really can qualify for the Champion's League. There's simply no way we can allow a non-entity like the League Cup to get in our way. Playing the first team against Salford might cost us two points or more in the league, result in an injury we can't afford, and (most importantly) create the impression that we're simply out there to play another game like any other. No! We can't afford that mentality. If we're to become a top team once again, we must be prepared to sacrifice the less meaningful opportunities for the real opportunity.

I don't give a hoot that Man City take the League Cup seriously. Their B team is stronger than most A teams in the Prem, so they're at the point where they can try to win everything. We're not there. We don't have that kind of squad. We must decide what we really want to be - and to my mind it's to become a Top Four team this year. Let's stop dinking around like a low-tier or mid-tier team hoping for a bit of luck to "reach Europe" and instead set to the real task of winning many more millions and creating a lasting dynasty. Anything less is a travesty for a team with the history and pedigree of Everton.

(Incidentally, the best thing that happened to us in that 13-14 season was losing to Fulham in the 3rd round of the League Cup. I only wish we'd lost to Stevenage in the second round instead of winning in extra time - because it may have cost us two points the following weekend.)

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3 hours ago, Cornish Steve said:

I know I cause frustration every time I make this point, but it's so important (in life, in business, in sport, in everything). We succeed when we focus! What exactly do we want: to win a cup wth virtually no prize money just so we can claim, like Bala or New Saints, that we're "in Europe" or to become a powerhouse team once again, earn many millions more for finishing in the top four, and genuinely earn our right to play in Europe because we're good enough? We have to choose, because a lack of focus will mean we achieve neither - or the wrong one.

In Martinez's first year, we finished fifth, thrashed Arsenal at a critical juncture, and genuinely thought we might qualify for the Champion's League. That was with a different owner and much less in the way of financial resources. Now we have a manager who's won it all, who can attract the biggest names, and has already proved we can beat top teams on their own turf. If we focus, focus, focus, we really can qualify for the Champion's League. There's simply no way we can allow a non-entity like the League Cup to get in our way. Playing the first team against Salford might cost us two points or more in the league, result in an injury we can't afford, and (most importantly) create the impression that we're simply out there to play another game like any other. No! We can't afford that mentality. If we're to become a top team once again, we must be prepared to sacrifice the less meaningful opportunities for the real opportunity.

I don't give a hoot that Man City take the League Cup seriously. Their B team is stronger than most A teams in the Prem, so they're at the point where they can try to win everything. We're not there. We don't have that kind of squad. We must decide what we really want to be - and to my mind it's to become a Top Four team this year. Let's stop dinking around like a low-tier or mid-tier team hoping for a bit of luck to "reach Europe" and instead set to the real task of winning many more millions and creating a lasting dynasty. Anything less is a travesty for a team with the history and pedigree of Everton.

(Incidentally, the best thing that happened to us in that 13-14 season was losing to Fulham in the 3rd round of the League Cup. I only wish we'd lost to Stevenage in the second round instead of winning in extra time - because it may have cost us two points the following weekend.)

Nice post but it's how a person defines success. Personally, I would take a league Cup this season over qualification for the Champions League. 

Success as you know isn't going to happen overnight, winning the League Cup would bring silverware and allow us to build on that next season by competing with a good squad at the very least Europa League level - with a team that have recent experience of winning a tropy. 

Finishing in a CL spot this season isnt going to make us a powerhouse team. If we play a strong squad in the league cup, get an injury and lose out on continental qualification becuase of that, then our team is not ready for continental football. 

You're talking about sacrificing winning silverware to try compete for a champions league spot in a league where realistically 8 teams are trying to do that, at least 5 of which are miles ahead of us. Building a lasting dynasty is just that, building, and we are only just laying the foundations.

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32 minutes ago, Aidan said:

Nice post but it's how a person defines success. Personally, I would take a league Cup this season over qualification for the Champions League. 

Success as you know isn't going to happen overnight, winning the League Cup would bring silverware and allow us to build on that next season by competing with a good squad at the very least Europa League level - with a team that have recent experience of winning a tropy. 

Finishing in a CL spot this season isnt going to make us a powerhouse team. If we play a strong squad in the league cup, get an injury and lose out on continental qualification becuase of that, then our team is not ready for continental football. 

You're talking about sacrificing winning silverware to try compete for a champions league spot in a league where realistically 8 teams are trying to do that, at least 5 of which are miles ahead of us. Building a lasting dynasty is just that, building, and we are only just laying the foundations.

The FA Cup I could understand, because it carries prestige. The League Cup, though, is a waste of time and effort. Are our sights really so low that the League Cup is what we aspire to? We should follow the Leicester approach, not the Swansea approach.

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1 hour ago, Cornish Steve said:

The FA Cup I could understand, because it carries prestige. The League Cup, though, is a waste of time and effort. Are our sights really so low that the League Cup is what we aspire to? We should follow the Leicester approach, not the Swansea approach.

My sights are so high that I want to win every competition that we enter. It’s you that has set their sights low. 

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9 hours ago, Shukes said:

I think you will find DCL is being used perfectly. He is a central point that needs to be defended and marked. This allows Richarlison to constantly get space to receive a pass out wide.... as perfectly illustrated several time’s against Spurs. 
 

I would be happy if they both hit 15+, with other players chipping in. We can’t afford to play to get our striker the golden boot, we need to perform as a team, just like on Sunday.

No CB would want to play against him. Physically so strong yet rapid in behind as well. Needs to get a bit better with the ball at his feet but his improvement has been great! 20 goals is possible for him. Richarlison should have a few this year as well, good signs.

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2 hours ago, Cornish Steve said:

The FA Cup I could understand, because it carries prestige. The League Cup, though, is a waste of time and effort. Are our sights really so low that the League Cup is what we aspire to? We should follow the Leicester approach, not the Swansea approach.

I'm sorry mate, i can sort of understand your logic but ultimately any time any one puts on our shirt the ambition has to be to win. Any competition we enter, its to win. Remind me what Nil Satis Nil Optimus means again please?

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7 hours ago, Btay said:

No CB would want to play against him. Physically so strong yet rapid in behind as well. Needs to get a bit better with the ball at his feet but his improvement has been great! 20 goals is possible for him. Richarlison should have a few this year as well, good signs.

I think it's going to be really interesting seeing if DCL can adapt this season. He was fantastic when we didn't have a midfield that could play and create and we'd launch the ball up to him a lot throughout the game for him to hold the ball up, or win the header. Now we've got players who will keep it on the grass and play through balls etc. 

He's not going to be the focal point anymore, and he's going to have to learn to make and time his runs for those through balls. It's going to be a challenge for him but he's earned the opportunity to show he can do it, and I'm glad he's going to get the opportunity. He deserves it and I'm looking forward to seeing if he can rise to challenge and take his game up a notch.

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I think we definitely do have to priorities, and we will like most other teams do - I am sure main focus at the beginning of the season will be finishing as high up in the league table as possible. That is your bread an butter and odds wise, if you play well and consistently throughout the season you finish in the position you deserve. 

I am sure the priority will be League, FA Cup and finally the League Cup at the beginning of the season, but his might change (and should if needed)

Premiership clubs don't generally field their first 11 in the League Cup, but its a competitive game and nothing gets you match fit more that game time. If the manager thinks certain players will benefit from a rest in missing a cup game he will leave them out and if he feels they need the game time he will leave them in. The League cup is a competition that is useful to field players on the fringe of the first 11 or  to blood youngsters. This is generally what happens. It's good to stay in this competition for as long as possible, just so there are more competitive games available. We should always be fielding a team capable or winning.

If you get to a quarter final stage or better, then the competition deserves more of the clubs focus and maybe the focus shifts to fielding a stronger team in the final couple of rounds. Winning comes with a trophy and a European spot - I would be willing to sacrifice a position of two in the league to actually win something. 

Getting regular European football is vitally important whether it be Europa or CL - yes, it leads to a tougher fixture list the following season, but we have to deal with it and learn to overcome it, that's what its all about. Qualifying for European football (of any sort) is what we aspire to achieve each and every season. If we lose a few position in the league the following season due to European hangovers - then so be it, you can't shun being in Europe just in case we are not ready! Ancelotti is extremely experienced in juggling European and domestic football, we have never had that before. 

All competitions need a proper focus and not just the league, but that doesn't mean we have to put out all the 'star' players in every single game.

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