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4th Place

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Why would it upset anyone? You're probably right. We're about 5-1 to finish in the top four with the bookies, and they're not famous for their generosity (2-1 favourites now in the "without the big four" market which is nice :D ).

 

Average points needed for fourth place in the twelve years since the league cut to twenty teams is 66. Means we'd need to pick up 27 from our last sixteen games. Not impossible when you consider we've got 26 from our last twelve, but not easy. If we stay lucky with injuries we could do it, but like I said, you're probably right. Fucking hope you're wrong though :P .

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Why would it upset anyone? You're probably right. We're about 5-1 to finish in the top four with the bookies, and they're not famous for their generosity (2-1 favourites now in the "without the big four" market which is nice :D ).

 

Average points needed for fourth place in the twelve years since the league cut to twenty teams is 66. Means we'd need to pick up 27 from our last sixteen games. Not impossible when you consider we've got 26 from our last twelve, but not easy. If we stay lucky with injuries we could do it, but like I said, you're probably right. Fucking hope you're wrong though :P .

 

 

WIN 8. DRAW 3. LOSE 5. Might look easy but if we manage that, has a team who's lost 12 games ever finished in the top 4. :o

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WIN 8. DRAW 3. LOSE 5. Might look easy but if we manage that, has a team who's lost 12 games ever finished in the top 4. :o

 

Chelsea lost fifteen in 97/98. Only drew three and finished with 63points. Strange things happen.

(Not to mention us losing thirteen in 04/05)

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The more we push for 4th the better as it takes are minds of finishing back in the top 6 at the end of the day we would have took that at the begining of the season.

 

aslong as we continue a good run in eufa cup and maybbe a trip to wembely.

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I think if we finished 5th or 6th this year then Moyes deserves a lot of credit, never mind 4th. The fact is that he has engineered a highly impressive turn-around of this mighty club in the space of five years, even though he and his team have received god knows how much criticism in that time, and still do... not least of all from some people on this site. All I can say is that even inn my short time as a Blue I never thought I would see us competing - and rightfully so - for European places as well as playing quality football and attracting quality players.

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Average points needed for fourth place in the twelve years since the league cut to twenty teams is 66. Means we'd need to pick up 27 from our last sixteen games. Not impossible when you consider we've got 26 from our last twelve, but not easy. If we stay lucky with injuries we could do it, but like I said, you're probably right. Fucking hope you're wrong though :P .

 

I have a feeling this could be a year that goes above the average, with so many teams in contention and playing well. So if we look at larger numbers, the highest point total for a 4th place team in the last twelve years is 71 points by Newcastle in 01-02 (Ironically, that was the year Leeds crippled themselves trying to get into the CL and only finished fifth - with 66 points. They obviously picked the wrong year to hit the average.) We'd need 32 points from 16 games if we had to aim for 71 - 10 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses. Not impossible, but we'd need to start taking some points off the big boys or else our margin for error would be very slim.

 

I think we can walk away with 4th this year, but it'll take some injury luck (as Mike said), and we'll need the teams around us to drop a few at some point too. Which has to happen eventually - I mean surely us and Liverpool and Villa AND City can't all four keep up this pace all season, right?

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I think if we finished 5th or 6th this year then Moyes deserves a lot of credit, never mind 4th. The fact is that he has engineered a highly impressive turn-around of this mighty club in the space of five years, even though he and his team have received god knows how much criticism in that time, and still do... not least of all from some people on this site. All I can say is that even inn my short time as a Blue I never thought I would see us competing - and rightfully so - for European places as well as playing quality football and attracting quality players.

bang on, as far as I'm concerned - behind Wenger and Ferguson Moyes has proven himself to be up there with the best managers in the Premier League. He has done a fantastic job and even his substitutions are now starting to make sense, he is our main asset as far as I am concerned, not Arteta or Lescott, but Moyes.

 

I do think we can finish 4th, particularly now we've been knocked out of the FA Cup. Liverpool are on the slide, they are suffering from a lack of motivation as now their season boils down to a battle for 4th, which is the worst they could have realistically expected at the beginning of the season - they will be feeling the pressure, unlike Everton who had no expectations of finishing 4th (due to playing in various competitions) and suddenly we are looking about the strongest of all the teams. No way will City last the pace, like Blackburn they just aren't good enough all round to keep winning game after game. I don't think Villa are either, but they are a lot more solid all round than either of the other 2 rivals behind us so I think they could push us and Liverpool if the wins dry up a bit. We just need to get through this current patch whilst African Nations is on, if we can do that and still be level with Liverpool or thereabouts then I think we can have a big time crack at it, especially as pretty soon Liverpool's minds will once again be on the European Cup. Fernandes could make a massive difference in January, with Osman coming back then we can put him out on the wing (until Pienaar returns) and get Fernandes into the Osman CM role in the 451. We just need Vaguhan or AJ to start firing as we look solid everywhere else and have options in virtually every other position. Some big players of ours haven't even hit top form yet - Arteta, Vaughan so once they do we could really be flying.

 

As far as I'm concerned, and I've believed all along - once we signed Yak - we're the 5th best team in the country and there isn't much in it between us and Liverpool, especially when their manager hasn't got a clue in the Premier League. Yet you still get Liverpool fans who tell you that not a single Everton player would get in theiream, it's funny how much better than us they are yet we're level on points and would have been ahead if it wasn't for Clattenburg.

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at this point the fascinating aspect is that 4 teams are in real contention for 4th place and with 3 teams in contention for title still, this is arguably the best, or at least most interesting, Prem season to date.

 

a win at Wigan would start to make the maths very possible of what would then be the last 15 games.

Completely agree that at start of season, success criteria in my mind was achieving 2 years of uefa cup qualification..sign of consistent challenging and ability to retain/attract players.

 

Keep pushing the envelope Blues..

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in the summer when it looked like we were getting yak and manny i was drooling at the prospect of our side, and that was before we knew much about pienaar. so for me i want to see where we are when our lads come back from ACN.

 

i think if we can keep the pace by the time we play brann then we can realistically look at 4th, by then we'll have played wigan spurs blackburn and reading, all very much winable games, if we manage 4/4 then i think the RS will be getting worried!

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I think if we're gonna push on to genuinely challenge for 4th next season as well then we have to beat those four to show that we can challenge for that area of the league. So from that point of view, I think these are the teams we should definitely be beating as Blackburn are attempting to achieve as we are, whilst Tottenham should be achieving as we are. Not that I'll be totally devastated if we don't win all four; right now even thinking of 4th for this season is such a bonus.

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Ran the remaining schedules of the four 39-point teams through the analyzer, and here's the results:

 

Remaining home schedules:

 

1. Most difficult: Man City (8 home games): opponents average 32.8 points - five of eight games are against top half teams, including Arsenal, Chelsea, and us

 

2. Liverpool (9 home games): opp. avg. 30.4 points - this is having destiny in your own hands: Liverpool's remaining games against each of the other contenders for fourth (us, Villa, and City - and Blackburn too, for that matter) are ALL at Anfield. If they don't finish fourth with that stacked in their favor, they'll have no one to blame but themselves (though I'm sure they'd manage to find a scapegoat anyway).

 

3. Everton (8 home games): opp. avg. 28.9 points - Chelsea's really good, Villa's pretty good, and Derby's really bad; everyone else is kinda in the middle

 

4. Easiest: Aston Villa (7 home games), opp. avg. 23.3 points - they have the disadvantage of fewer home games than anyone else, but have by far the easiest slate; only one of their seven remaining home ties (Blackburn) is against a team in the top half.

 

Remaining road schedules:

 

1. Most difficult: Aston Villa (9 road games), opponents average 32.2 points - this is where they get punished for that creampuff home schedule; nine road games (most of anyone), and six of them are against the top half, including four of the top five in the standings (Man U, Arsenal, Liverpool, and us)

 

2. Everton (8 road games), opp. avg. 30.0 points - even split between top half and bottom half; Arsenal, Liverpool, and Man City toughest tests left

 

3. Liverpool (8 road games), opp. avg 32.5 points - highest average to play against, but Chelsea, Man U, AND Arsenal all still to play on the road are skewing it upward, their other five games are quite winnable

 

4. Easiest: Man City (8 road games), opp. avg. 25.0 points - still have to play at Man U and Liverpool, but after those two their other six road games are all against teams sitting 14th or worse

 

I suppose it's no surprise that the home and road schedule ranks are exact opposites. All told, though, I'd probably rather be in City's position and have my toughest remaining games be at home than be in Villa's position and have to play them all on the road.

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Interesting (is the analyser your brain JD :lol: ?).

 

Like you say it's Liverpool's to lose, and City's fixture list would seem on the face of it to be the easiest. The thing about them though is that they are such a different team away from home that any game is difficult for them. Also think they'll be found out at home now people know what they're about. Between us and Villa in my view and we have the edge, so I think the bookies have got it right when they make us favourites for fifth (and fourth is possible if Liverpool continue to self destruct).

 

We've got Wigan and Blackburn away and Spurs and Reading at home before the African lads get back, if we van get (at worst) seven points from those (hopefully more) we'll be right in it. We need fifth to make certain of Europe, and I think we'll do it.

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OK, 42 points and fifteen games left.

 

Eight of them at home against Spurs, Reading, Pompey, Wham, Derby, Chelsea, Villa and Newcastle.

 

Two bankers (Reading, Derby) = 6 points.

 

Three slightly more difficult (Spurs, Newcastle, Wham...possibly one slip up) = 6 points

 

Two tricky but we'll still be favourites at home (Pompey, Villa) = 4 points

 

Then Chelsea which we may well take nothing from (being pessimistic) = 0 points.

 

Seven away games at Blackburn, City, Sunderland, Fulham, L'pool, Birmingham and Arsenal.

 

No easy away games but we should win at Fulham, Birmingham and Sunderland (maybe only get a draw in one) = 7 points.

 

Blackburn are sliding, City are beginning to be found out (win one, draw one) = 4 points.

 

Liverpool we get a draw = 1 point.

 

Concede defeat at Arsenal = 0 points.

 

28 more points gained. Finish with seventy which is very likely to be good enough for fourth. Like Bill said, simple :P .

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MikeO I admire your optimism! however I think there will be a few more draws than youve predicted. That said we tend to either win or lose at the moment and luckily win more than lose. I hope your right but I think the UEFA cup may prove to cost us a couple more points as the season gets on. I hope Im wrong but I'm not used to being so optomistic with the blues! (let down many times in the past)

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what is great is that it is starting to look very good indeed for us to qualify for uefa cup again. anything from 65 points puts us very close indeed to getting 4th so it really is game on for us.

 

one thing is for sure...Liverpool as a club and their fans won't be happy that this is the fight they have on their hands at this stage of the season.

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As much as it is nice to be in 4th alone I really think the loss would have hurt pool. Oh well, can't really complain at the moment.

 

But Villa are more of a threat to us on current form than Liverpool are. They can self destruct quite happily on their own, Villa need to drop points.

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that draw has really helped. if they can lose the game in hand, anyone know who its against and when?

hopefully their owners keep causing this media frenzy and keep getting in the way of the football.

 

if we can manage to win our next two prem games i think we will really be hard to catch

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that draw has really helped. if they can lose the game in hand, anyone know who its against and when?

 

It's their home tie against West Ham that was postponed from August 15, and they'll be playing it in March. Apparently the make-up date was just decided a few days ago (thank goodness for Google, eh?).

 

http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/news/archivedirs...080117-1236.htm

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It's their home tie against West Ham that was postponed from August 15

 

Home game eh? That'll be a draw then :P. .

 

Think you're right StevO, if we could win our next two that'd be four wins without the African lads, more points than we could have reasonably expected, and we'd be in a very strong position.

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i know its still a biggish gap but think of it this way...we are 12 points off top spot. Not the biggest of gaps, yes one we wont fill in this season but 12 points is not too much. things are looking bright for the future.

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i agree,

 

while many people have been saying the gap between the big 4 (ahem 3!!) and the rest of the league was widening, this season all of the supposed top 4 have dropped a lot more points than usual and teams like Everton, Man City, Villa and Pompy have scored points consistancy.

 

last year both 3rd and 4th finished 21 points behind the league winners.

year before 4th finished 24 points behind.

season before that we came 4th, 34 points behind!

 

the gaps coming in, hopefully the gap will be less than 21 this season, and hopefully we'll be within that many points!

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our lost 12 points

 

Man U Home and Away

Arsenal Home

Liverpool Home

 

 

 

Uefa Cup Win or 4th?

 

i'd still go for the cup. we'll prob draw juventus if we finished 4th.

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Zed    1
our lost 12 points

 

Man U Home and Away

Arsenal Home

Liverpool Home

Uefa Cup Win or 4th?

 

i'd still go for the cup. we'll prob draw juventus if we finished 4th.

 

 

How very true

 

Id take a cup win over fourth anyday

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Just a thought...if we finished winning five, drawing three and losing six in the last fourteen games we'd have the same record as 04/05. Not a chance that'll be good enough for fourth this time, but not a chance we'll finish that poorly either I don't think.

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How very true

 

Id take a cup win over fourth anyday

 

same here....win the uefa...couldn't care less were we finished, it would be incredible, and as holders we'd return anyway

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great result, means we have a 3 point gap to everyone except Liverpool. a bit loss for them against a relegation battling team.

 

of the teams in 4th - 8th only Liverpool won this weekend while us, Pompy and Blackburn took a point each.

 

could have been worse.

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Zed    1
great result, means we have a 3 point gap to everyone except Liverpool. a bit loss for them against a relegation battling team.

 

of the teams in 4th - 8th only Liverpool won this weekend while us, Pompy and Blackburn took a point each.

 

could have been worse.

 

Liverpool have their game in hand dont they this week??? Maybe its next week

 

 

But they do play their cup final next week against one of the top four

 

Reading will give us a game next week, but we deffinatly need to win that type of game

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Before we go to Anfield Liverpool have...

 

Chelsea A

'Boro H

Bolton A

Wham H

Newcastle H

Reading H

ManU A

 

We have...

 

Reading H

City A

Pompey H

Sunderland A

Fulham A

Wham H

 

On current form you could expect Liverpool to pick up seven points from those games.

We can expect twelve, go into the derby with an eight point advantage...where's the problem ;) ?

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^^^ Haha THE DREAM.

 

Redshite need to play 2 of the top 3 away there so fingers crossed.Expect them to win all the others tbh.

 

Come on toffees lets get a run of wins together starting saturday. City Away is another huge game.

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I have had (an admittedly stupid) attempt at guessing final points accumulated by us, RS, Villa, City, Blackburn and Pompey. I have taken a cautious (nervous!) approach to our points such as us drawing with Villa and losing at Anfield and have given Liverpool too much credit I suspect.

 

I have got us finishing 5th on 68 points, with RS getting 4th with 71. Villa get 6th.

 

These totals would be high for 4th and 5th places based on previous seasons (just type final Prem table for x season in Google if you are as sad as me!).

 

However, I do think its going to need at least 67 points to get 4th.

 

Do with that what you wish!

 

First things first, if we bear Reading then I suspect we start to a significant gap on the likes of City and Blackburn, who need to be picked off first.

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Ola    0
Liverpool are the only challengers for fourth. Manchester City, Portsmouth, Aston Villa and Blackburn Rovers have are slipped up recently and their respective challenges are waning fast.
not so sure about that not the way benitez is chopping an changing, long may he rain hahaha, ad say villa are the ones to watch they look a decent side tbo,

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I would not rule Villa out of the race for 4th just yet. Granted, they slipped at Fulham, but then Fulham are starting to show signs that they are going to fight for survival, especially with Bullard fit.

 

villa have a decent set of games left.

 

I would dearly love us to get 4th but I am naturally cautious and its too soon for us to even assume we will get a uefa cup place.

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I dn't think it's possible to predict how many points the red shites will score at the moment they're way to unpredictable!

 

all we can do is hope we beat all of the teams below us and get at least a draw if not beating Liverpool. Anything against Chelsea or Arsenal is a bonus.

 

that's no expectation though! i would be a little suprised if we came away with 10 wins and a draw from our final 13!

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that's no expectation though! i would be a little suprised if we came away with 10 wins and a draw from our final 13!

 

Just a bit....we'd have to start a 3rd place thread then :P !

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As said before very hard to guess the redshites results. Chelski to beat them today as they should which would give us some cushion. Its all in our hands as we need to play the shite, villa and city. Its ours to throw away.

 

Predictions for remaining fixtures?

 

 

City A Draw

Pompey H Win

Sunderland A Draw

Fulham A Win

Wham H Win

Shite A Shall reluctantly go for Lose

Derby H Win

Brum A See us drop points here Draw

Chelsea H Lose

Villa H Draw

Arse A Lose

Magpies H Win

 

If by miracle all these are right points total = 19+47=66pts. Not sure if its good enough.

 

It will be close!

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City haven't won at home in the league since December 15th, they've drawn three and lost one since then...also lost at home to Spurs in the Carling Cup. Have also lost to us and Sheffield United (and managed a draw at Derby).

 

Couple of slightly more positive results (beating Newcastle and Wham, draw at Villa) don't disguise the fact that they've run out of steam big time.

 

We play anything like we can and we get three points.

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....they've run out of steam big time.

 

Me and my big mouth :) .

 

Didn't need that today (City beating Utd) but hopefully it's a one-off. Derby results often throw the form book out of the window (hopefully that won't happen at Anfield though ;) ). Only upside is that it's pushed Liverpool down to seventh :D .

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I'm backing us to grab three at Sunderland, but I'm actually a little more worried about the one right after that, even as bad as Fulham is this year. On paper we should wipe them out if we're healthy, but wasn't the last time we picked up a point at Craven Cottage like, the sixties?

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I hope we get 4th and think we will by a few points but its important that we win these shite teams (including the actually shite hopefully) then no doubt Liverpool will slip up on one of them but am sure everton will lose Arsenal and possibly draw Chelsea all confusing.

 

Even if we dont get 4th its no massive loss I know its lots of money but if we were aiming for EUFA again then we will have achieved what we aimed for.

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Crouch - "Realistically we're out of the title race now. Arsenal and Manchester United have set the pace and we now have to show respect to Aston Villa and Manchester City because we are in a right battle to get fourth place with them."

 

 

Cheeky bastard.

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Crouch - "Realistically we're out of the title race now. Arsenal and Manchester United have set the pace and we now have to show respect to Aston Villa and Manchester City because we are in a right battle to get fourth place with them."

Cheeky bastard.

I wouldn't worry about it, hopefully he genuinely believes that (along with the rest of the players) and then by the time they wake up to reality it'll be too late. I think finally some Liverpool fans are starting to realise that Everton really are going to push them, but I still think 95% of them honestly believe that we can't finish ahead of them, it was the same a couple of years ago - they just can't/won't appreciate that Everton actually do have some very good players and a very very good manager. We're not playing well, but we still pick up results, when Liverpool don't play well they usually get very little.

 

If only we had've beaten Blackburn, we would have been out in front with clear daylight - it puts all sorts of pressure on the teams behind as games are running out and they know one mistake and we could go 6/8 points clear with 10 or so games left. We need to win a couple of games on the trot now, if we can beat City then we're in business.

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