4th Place

[jofanon]

I know this is upset a few of you but I really don't think there is much chance of us finishing fourth this year.

 

Discuss.

[MikeO]

Why would it upset anyone? You're probably right. We're about 5-1 to finish in the top four with the bookies, and they're not famous for their generosity (2-1 favourites now in the "without the big four" market which is nice ).

 

Average points needed for fourth place in the twelve years since the league cut to twenty teams is 66. Means we'd need to pick up 27 from our last sixteen games. Not impossible when you consider we've got 26 from our last twelve, but not easy. If we stay lucky with injuries we could do it, but like I said, you're probably right. Fucking hope you're wrong though .

[Blue4Ever]

its possible if everyone stays fit and were lucky with a few red shite and city losses when we win.

[Bill]

Why would it upset anyone? You're probably right. We're about 5-1 to finish in the top four with the bookies, and they're not famous for their generosity (2-1 favourites now in the "without the big four" market which is nice ).

 

Average points needed for fourth place in the twelve years since the league cut to twenty teams is 66. Means we'd need to pick up 27 from our last sixteen games. Not impossible when you consider we've got 26 from our last twelve, but not easy. If we stay lucky with injuries we could do it, but like I said, you're probably right. Fucking hope you're wrong though .

 

 

WIN 8. DRAW 3. LOSE 5. Might look easy but if we manage that, has a team who's lost 12 games ever finished in the top 4.

[MikeO]

WIN 8. DRAW 3. LOSE 5. Might look easy but if we manage that, has a team who's lost 12 games ever finished in the top 4.

 

Chelsea lost fifteen in 97/98. Only drew three and finished with 63points. Strange things happen.

(Not to mention us losing thirteen in 04/05)

Edited January 14, 2008 by MikeO

[Bill]

Should be a piece of piss for us then Mike :D

[J*A*C*K*E*L*Z]

The more we push for 4th the better as it takes are minds of finishing back in the top 6 at the end of the day we would have took that at the begining of the season.

 

aslong as we continue a good run in eufa cup and maybbe a trip to wembely.

[Calico]

I think if we finished 5th or 6th this year then Moyes deserves a lot of credit, never mind 4th. The fact is that he has engineered a highly impressive turn-around of this mighty club in the space of five years, even though he and his team have received god knows how much criticism in that time, and still do... not least of all from some people on this site. All I can say is that even inn my short time as a Blue I never thought I would see us competing - and rightfully so - for European places as well as playing quality football and attracting quality players.

[zequist]

Average points needed for fourth place in the twelve years since the league cut to twenty teams is 66. Means we'd need to pick up 27 from our last sixteen games. Not impossible when you consider we've got 26 from our last twelve, but not easy. If we stay lucky with injuries we could do it, but like I said, you're probably right. Fucking hope you're wrong though .

 

I have a feeling this could be a year that goes above the average, with so many teams in contention and playing well. So if we look at larger numbers, the highest point total for a 4th place team in the last twelve years is 71 points by Newcastle in 01-02 (Ironically, that was the year Leeds crippled themselves trying to get into the CL and only finished fifth - with 66 points. They obviously picked the wrong year to hit the average.) We'd need 32 points from 16 games if we had to aim for 71 - 10 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses. Not impossible, but we'd need to start taking some points off the big boys or else our margin for error would be very slim.

 

I think we can walk away with 4th this year, but it'll take some injury luck (as Mike said), and we'll need the teams around us to drop a few at some point too. Which has to happen eventually - I mean surely us and Liverpool and Villa AND City can't all four keep up this pace all season, right?

[carlmc25]

I think if we finished 5th or 6th this year then Moyes deserves a lot of credit, never mind 4th. The fact is that he has engineered a highly impressive turn-around of this mighty club in the space of five years, even though he and his team have received god knows how much criticism in that time, and still do... not least of all from some people on this site. All I can say is that even inn my short time as a Blue I never thought I would see us competing - and rightfully so - for European places as well as playing quality football and attracting quality players.

bang on, as far as I'm concerned - behind Wenger and Ferguson Moyes has proven himself to be up there with the best managers in the Premier League. He has done a fantastic job and even his substitutions are now starting to make sense, he is our main asset as far as I am concerned, not Arteta or Lescott, but Moyes.

 

I do think we can finish 4th, particularly now we've been knocked out of the FA Cup. Liverpool are on the slide, they are suffering from a lack of motivation as now their season boils down to a battle for 4th, which is the worst they could have realistically expected at the beginning of the season - they will be feeling the pressure, unlike Everton who had no expectations of finishing 4th (due to playing in various competitions) and suddenly we are looking about the strongest of all the teams. No way will City last the pace, like Blackburn they just aren't good enough all round to keep winning game after game. I don't think Villa are either, but they are a lot more solid all round than either of the other 2 rivals behind us so I think they could push us and Liverpool if the wins dry up a bit. We just need to get through this current patch whilst African Nations is on, if we can do that and still be level with Liverpool or thereabouts then I think we can have a big time crack at it, especially as pretty soon Liverpool's minds will once again be on the European Cup. Fernandes could make a massive difference in January, with Osman coming back then we can put him out on the wing (until Pienaar returns) and get Fernandes into the Osman CM role in the 451. We just need Vaguhan or AJ to start firing as we look solid everywhere else and have options in virtually every other position. Some big players of ours haven't even hit top form yet - Arteta, Vaughan so once they do we could really be flying.

 

As far as I'm concerned, and I've believed all along - once we signed Yak - we're the 5th best team in the country and there isn't much in it between us and Liverpool, especially when their manager hasn't got a clue in the Premier League. Yet you still get Liverpool fans who tell you that not a single Everton player would get in theiream, it's funny how much better than us they are yet we're level on points and would have been ahead if it wasn't for Clattenburg.

[Philinsuffolk]

at this point the fascinating aspect is that 4 teams are in real contention for 4th place and with 3 teams in contention for title still, this is arguably the best, or at least most interesting, Prem season to date.

 

a win at Wigan would start to make the maths very possible of what would then be the last 15 games.

Completely agree that at start of season, success criteria in my mind was achieving 2 years of uefa cup qualification..sign of consistent challenging and ability to retain/attract players.

 

Keep pushing the envelope Blues..

[StevO]

in the summer when it looked like we were getting yak and manny i was drooling at the prospect of our side, and that was before we knew much about pienaar. so for me i want to see where we are when our lads come back from ACN.

 

i think if we can keep the pace by the time we play brann then we can realistically look at 4th, by then we'll have played wigan spurs blackburn and reading, all very much winable games, if we manage 4/4 then i think the RS will be getting worried!

[Calico]

I think if we're gonna push on to genuinely challenge for 4th next season as well then we have to beat those four to show that we can challenge for that area of the league. So from that point of view, I think these are the teams we should definitely be beating as Blackburn are attempting to achieve as we are, whilst Tottenham should be achieving as we are. Not that I'll be totally devastated if we don't win all four; right now even thinking of 4th for this season is such a bonus.

Edited January 15, 2008 by Calico

[zequist]

Ran the remaining schedules of the four 39-point teams through the analyzer, and here's the results:

 

Remaining home schedules:

 

1. Most difficult: Man City (8 home games): opponents average 32.8 points - five of eight games are against top half teams, including Arsenal, Chelsea, and us

 

2. Liverpool (9 home games): opp. avg. 30.4 points - this is having destiny in your own hands: Liverpool's remaining games against each of the other contenders for fourth (us, Villa, and City - and Blackburn too, for that matter) are ALL at Anfield. If they don't finish fourth with that stacked in their favor, they'll have no one to blame but themselves (though I'm sure they'd manage to find a scapegoat anyway).

 

3. Everton (8 home games): opp. avg. 28.9 points - Chelsea's really good, Villa's pretty good, and Derby's really bad; everyone else is kinda in the middle

 

4. Easiest: Aston Villa (7 home games), opp. avg. 23.3 points - they have the disadvantage of fewer home games than anyone else, but have by far the easiest slate; only one of their seven remaining home ties (Blackburn) is against a team in the top half.

 

Remaining road schedules:

 

1. Most difficult: Aston Villa (9 road games), opponents average 32.2 points - this is where they get punished for that creampuff home schedule; nine road games (most of anyone), and six of them are against the top half, including four of the top five in the standings (Man U, Arsenal, Liverpool, and us)

 

2. Everton (8 road games), opp. avg. 30.0 points - even split between top half and bottom half; Arsenal, Liverpool, and Man City toughest tests left

 

3. Liverpool (8 road games), opp. avg 32.5 points - highest average to play against, but Chelsea, Man U, AND Arsenal all still to play on the road are skewing it upward, their other five games are quite winnable

 

4. Easiest: Man City (8 road games), opp. avg. 25.0 points - still have to play at Man U and Liverpool, but after those two their other six road games are all against teams sitting 14th or worse

 

I suppose it's no surprise that the home and road schedule ranks are exact opposites. All told, though, I'd probably rather be in City's position and have my toughest remaining games be at home than be in Villa's position and have to play them all on the road.

[MikeO]

Interesting (is the analyser your brain JD ?).

 

Like you say it's Liverpool's to lose, and City's fixture list would seem on the face of it to be the easiest. The thing about them though is that they are such a different team away from home that any game is difficult for them. Also think they'll be found out at home now people know what they're about. Between us and Villa in my view and we have the edge, so I think the bookies have got it right when they make us favourites for fifth (and fourth is possible if Liverpool continue to self destruct).

 

We've got Wigan and Blackburn away and Spurs and Reading at home before the African lads get back, if we van get (at worst) seven points from those (hopefully more) we'll be right in it. We need fifth to make certain of Europe, and I think we'll do it.

[MikeO]

OK, 42 points and fifteen games left.

 

Eight of them at home against Spurs, Reading, Pompey, Wham, Derby, Chelsea, Villa and Newcastle.

 

Two bankers (Reading, Derby) = 6 points.

 

Three slightly more difficult (Spurs, Newcastle, Wham...possibly one slip up) = 6 points

 

Two tricky but we'll still be favourites at home (Pompey, Villa) = 4 points

 

Then Chelsea which we may well take nothing from (being pessimistic) = 0 points.

 

Seven away games at Blackburn, City, Sunderland, Fulham, L'pool, Birmingham and Arsenal.

 

No easy away games but we should win at Fulham, Birmingham and Sunderland (maybe only get a draw in one) = 7 points.

 

Blackburn are sliding, City are beginning to be found out (win one, draw one) = 4 points.

 

Liverpool we get a draw = 1 point.

 

Concede defeat at Arsenal = 0 points.

 

28 more points gained. Finish with seventy which is very likely to be good enough for fourth. Like Bill said, simple .

[Heather_6]

We're looking down on the RedShite, down on the reddddddshite, down on the redshite!

[c1982]

OK, 42 points and fifteen games left.

 

You've done the Maths

[barryj]

MikeO I admire your optimism! however I think there will be a few more draws than youve predicted. That said we tend to either win or lose at the moment and luckily win more than lose. I hope your right but I think the UEFA cup may prove to cost us a couple more points as the season gets on. I hope Im wrong but I'm not used to being so optomistic with the blues! (let down many times in the past)

[Philinsuffolk]

what is great is that it is starting to look very good indeed for us to qualify for uefa cup again. anything from 65 points puts us very close indeed to getting 4th so it really is game on for us.

 

one thing is for sure...Liverpool as a club and their fans won't be happy that this is the fight they have on their hands at this stage of the season.

[Calico]

RS and Villa have just drawn. Good result for us.

[MikeO]

Never thought I'd be relieved at Liverpool getting a late equaliser....good result indeed!

[Calico]

lol, me too. I was made up when Villa scored those two quick goals but strangely relieved when Crouch scored, as you said Mike...

[Droobie]

I wouldn't have minded a Villa win; we would have still been up on goal diff, but yeah, a draw is just as sweet.

[chicagoblue]

As much as it is nice to be in 4th alone I really think the loss would have hurt pool. Oh well, can't really complain at the moment.

[MikeO]

As much as it is nice to be in 4th alone I really think the loss would have hurt pool. Oh well, can't really complain at the moment.

 

But Villa are more of a threat to us on current form than Liverpool are. They can self destruct quite happily on their own, Villa need to drop points.

[StevO]

that draw has really helped. if they can lose the game in hand, anyone know who its against and when?

hopefully their owners keep causing this media frenzy and keep getting in the way of the football.

 

if we can manage to win our next two prem games i think we will really be hard to catch

[zequist]

that draw has really helped. if they can lose the game in hand, anyone know who its against and when?

 

It's their home tie against West Ham that was postponed from August 15, and they'll be playing it in March. Apparently the make-up date was just decided a few days ago (thank goodness for Google, eh?).

 

http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/news/archivedirs...080117-1236.htm

[MikeO]

It's their home tie against West Ham that was postponed from August 15

 

Home game eh? That'll be a draw then . .

 

Think you're right StevO, if we could win our next two that'd be four wins without the African lads, more points than we could have reasonably expected, and we'd be in a very strong position.

Edited January 22, 2008 by MikeO

[Bill]

Best position for a few years. ??