Ukraine/Russian Conflict

[Sibdane]

3 hours ago, Zoo 2.0 said:

I don't think that this is necessarily the start of all out war, but I do think that if Russia takes over Ukraine they'll potentially look to strengthen further by taking countries that are next door, such as Georgia (which in turn will force major action, and potentially WWIII).

I'm not massively into politics, and haven't really dug too deep into the whole Russia/Ukraine scenario but it does worry me (especially with a little one now) how unbelievably fucked the world seems to be; Covid, Johnson, Biden/Trump, Russia/Ukraine etc. It's worrying.

I'm right there with you. I love politics but usually feel they are mostly smoke and mirrors; however, the politics  around this situation have felt more personal, and the thought of a world war is pretty terrifying, especially when you consider nuclear destruction is a possibility. 

My daughter is 6 going on 7, and I'm so worried she won't get to have a normal childhood. It's probably something all parents have felt at some point I guess. As an American, I don't really like the thought of my country taking the lead on something like this, because it makes it more likely that my family could be in danger. I get it though. 

[Matt]

If the withdrawals are actually happening, this was tactically very clever from Putin. He'll have gotten so much information on how the West will act and must be licking his lips. 

[Hafnia]

1 minute ago, Matt said:

If the withdrawals are actually happening, this was tactically very clever from Putin. He'll have gotten so much information on how the West will act and must be licking his lips. 

Ukraine need to join nato.  Play hardball with the prick. 

[Cornish Steve]

As it happens, I've been reading a lot of late about WW-II, the history and politics on both sides of the conflict. There are many relevant lessons.

First, I think President Biden and his team have done a superb job. Yes, I know others have joked, but his team have learned lessons from WWII for sure. Germany took advantage of appeasement, and there's no appeasement here. Germany created/faked incidents to justify invasion, and the Biden team have clearly pursued an approach to overcome that: use intelligence to publicize every such attempt. Also, Germany claimed it had no aggression while pursuing aggression. Biden and NATO have made clear the discrepancy between words and actions. I would repeat: Biden and his team have proved their worth. Thank goodness the former idiot president is not still in the White House; he'd have traded Ukraine for Greenland.

Second, President Biden has managed to keep NATO united. Remember how his predecessor played right into Putin's hands by destabilizing NATO? Without US support, NATO would be much weaker right now. Once again, all credit to President Biden.

Third, America joined WWI late and WWII late, and only joined when its own interests were threatened. This was, in both cases, because of isolationism in the US. President Biden made earlier this week a very good speech where he made clear that the defence of democracy requires tough stances: He's not played the self-interest card but has once again allied himself with other democratic nations. Well done.

The problem, as I see it, is that Putin has forced himself into a corner and has no way out without appearing to be weak. The only way to avoid war right now is to find a path whereby he can claim some sort of victory to his people. Of course, Ukraine could sign a treaty to the effect that it will never join NATO, but why should it? This would only weaken its position in future years. I'm struggling to find a face-saving option for Russia right now, which means war is, unfortunately, very likely to happen. But, if limited and brief, maybe it will lead to a face-saving scenario that's not currently in sight.

Frankly, though, Russia would be fools to invade. They'll pay a high price for doing so.

[Palfy]

I don’t believe Putin is looking for a face saving way out I believe he is looking for more reasons  to justify an attack. America have said if he does attack they aren’t going retaliate by force but by sanctions, quite frankly that’s the equivalent of taking a feather pillow to an argument with Mike Tyson, that threat didn’t stop them when taking the Crimea in fact the  advice given to the Ukraine was not to retaliate by force. Russia are in a far stronger financial position than they were ten years or more ago any sanctions will hurt the rest of Europe as much as it would hurt them, plus once they attack they will have the support of the Chinese to help prop up their economy, bringing the threat of a Russian Chinese coalition ever closer which would be the worst thing that could happen to the west, so the threat of sanctions maybe minimal to stop that happening. The attack imo is inevitable and will take place after the Winter Olympics unless NATO countries mobilise troops into the Ukraine now then he will have a genuine threat to consider and halt him. 

[Formby]

On 18/02/2022 at 01:45, Cornish Steve said:

First, I think President Biden and his team have done a superb job.

Not according to Ukraine's Prime Minister just now. He's delivered a withering attack on NATO for its ridiculous and pusillanimous appeasement campaign. He's calling for NATO membership and I don't blame him. Europe's response - utterly pathetic. America? Just like Afghanistan, Biden turns tail - with the largest military capability the world has ever known. No one sane wants war - it makes corpses of us all. Putin is pushing the bayonet in. He'll keep doing that till he meets resistance. The tragedy is, there is none.

[Sibdane]

This isn’t specific to this forum but:
 

I see some criticizing the USA for not being involved enough; we have the military might and should step in.

Then there are others who want us to stay out, because we’ve flexed our military on so many occasions, and this is just another time for us to do that and have no business doing so. 
 

Damned if you do; damned if you don’t.
 

Personally, I like hearing Biden say we won’t put boots on the ground and will provide aid to Ukraine in other ways. I’m tired of being in constant wars, whether it be for selfish or noble reasons. Take your pick. 

[Matt]

8 hours ago, Sibdane said:

This isn’t specific to this forum but:
 

I see some criticizing the USA for not being involved enough; we have the military might and should step in.

Then there are others who want us to stay out, because we’ve flexed our military on so many occasions, and this is just another time for us to do that and have no business doing so. 
 

Damned if you do; damned if you don’t.
 

Personally, I like hearing Biden say we won’t put boots on the ground and will provide aid to Ukraine in other ways. I’m tired of being in constant wars, whether it be for selfish or noble reasons. Take your pick. 

Whilst I agree with all that, there's 1 big difference here; this would be about supporting allies, not going after oil under false pretences. Not something the US has a good history of until the last minute (and even then only because the US was attacked). 

Gets scarier every day. 

[Formby]

17 minutes ago, Matt said:

Whilst I agree with all that, there's 1 big difference here; this would be about supporting allies, not going after oil under false pretences. Not something the US has a good history of until the last minute (and even then only because the US was attacked). 

Gets scarier every day. 

This is absolutely the point. Well said.

[Formby]

11 hours ago, Sibdane said:

Personally, I like hearing Biden say we won’t put boots on the ground and will provide aid to Ukraine in other ways. I’m tired of being in constant wars, whether it be for selfish or noble reasons. Take your pick. 

I totally undertand your point. Setting aside Matt's important point above, America's geopolitical and economic interests are not well served by an isolationist policy. The defence budget needs paying for, so arms sales and the odd war here and there help sustain it. The American economy would look very different if you were to adopt a Swiss style neutrality. But then, so would the world. I do not think Russia or China would have the slighest qualms about annnexing territory if you removed America as a superpower. The idea of America being the upholder of the free world, despite the own goals, the proxy wars, the CIA backed toppling of regimes, still stands. We would all be poorer without it.

[Sibdane]

4 hours ago, Matt said:

Whilst I agree with all that, there's 1 big difference here; this would be about supporting allies, not going after oil under false pretences. Not something the US has a good history of until the last minute (and even then only because the US was attacked). 

Gets scarier every day. 

I don’t disagree. It just gets annoying being both the bad guy and the guy who is supposed to step in. The USA will remain a key player regardless. 

[Matt]

13 minutes ago, Sibdane said:

I don’t disagree. It just gets annoying being both the bad guy and the guy who is supposed to step in. The USA will remain a key player regardless. 

With great power etc etc 

[Palfy]

I understand the Americans maybe tired of war’s but if there was ever a war to be involved in surely it’s trying to stop Russia invading Ukraine even if it means troops on the ground, this is far more important than the oil in Iraqi or hunting the Taliban or extremist in Afghanistan. Americans need to realise it’s Ukraine first and if no military intervention where next, in a few years the rest of Eastern Europe and further, before you know it you’ve lost your allies and alliances and the buffer of Europe, what American politicians should do is maybe pick there wars for the right reasons, like stopping one of there biggest enemies from  invading one of it’s allies and breaking European and NATO resolve. I didn’t understand why Biden felt the need to publicly say America won’t be putting feet on the ground, that did Ukraine and the rest of Europe no favours at all and left the door unlocked for the Russians.  

[MikeO]

48 minutes ago, Palfy said:

I understand the Americans maybe tired of war’s but if there was ever a war to be involved in surely it’s trying to stop Russia invading Ukraine even if it means troops on the ground, this is far more important than the oil in Iraqi or hunting the Taliban or extremist in Afghanistan. Americans need to realise it’s Ukraine first and if no military intervention where next, in a few years the rest of Eastern Europe and further, before you know it you’ve lost your allies and alliances and the buffer of Europe, what American politicians should do is maybe pick there wars for the right reasons, like stopping one of there biggest enemies from  invading one of it’s allies and breaking European and NATO resolve. I didn’t understand why Biden felt the need to publicly say America won’t be putting feet on the ground, that did Ukraine and the rest of Europe no favours at all and left the door unlocked for the Russians.  

A lot of the old Eastern European nations are NATO members though (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Czech Republic, Croatia, North Macedonia, Hungary, Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia), so their expansion would be limited by that; if they went into one of those that's WW3.

[Sibdane]

13 minutes ago, MikeO said:

A lot of the old Eastern European nations are NATO members though (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Czech Republic, Croatia, North Macedonia, Hungary, Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia), so their expansion would be limited by that; if they went into one of those that's WW3.

I think that’s why Putin wants to strike now… Ukraine isn’t apart of NATO(yet), and attacking them before they gain membership keeps other a lot of other countries out of the equation. 

[Palfy]

1 hour ago, MikeO said:

A lot of the old Eastern European nations are NATO members though (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Czech Republic, Croatia, North Macedonia, Hungary, Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia), so their expansion would be limited by that; if they went into one of those that's WW3.

You’re right the above are members of NATO Ukraine and Georgia aren’t, America France and Germany have been in opposition to them joining for decades and it must be said one of the Presidents of Ukraine was also opposed to joining, and since Crimea was annexed they haven’t let the Ukraine join because they haven’t got control of all their borders. I just don’t believe the Americans have got the stomach for the fight when it comes to countries of great power, and if say Bulgaria was attacked I don’t believe they would take military action and defend them. 
What I find concerning is that if Russia attack Ukraine it won’t stop there Putin’s agenda is to try and recreate the old USSR it’s something he’s dreamed of since being in power.  

[Sibdane]

3 minutes ago, Palfy said:

You’re right the above are members of NATO Ukraine and Georgia aren’t, America France and Germany have been in opposition to them joining for decades and it must be said one of the Presidents of Ukraine was also opposed to joining, and since Crimea was annexed they haven’t let the Ukraine join because they haven’t got control of all their borders. I just don’t believe the Americans have got the stomach for the fight when it comes to countries of great power, and if say Bulgaria was attacked I don’t believe they would take military action and defend them. 
What I find concerning is that if Russia attack Ukraine it won’t stop there Putin’s agenda is to try and recreate the old USSR it’s something he’s dreamed of since being in power.  

You’re so wrong if you think we don’t have the stomach to fight. Russia would be crushed by us, and they know it.  

[Palfy]

3 minutes ago, Sibdane said:

You’re so wrong if you think we don’t have the stomach to fight. Russia would be crushed by us, and they know it.  

Good I hope I’m wrong, so why don’t America and Europe say to Putin attack Ukraine and we will defend them with the same force used against them for me that would make it just. 

[Cornish Steve]

Let me expand a little on why I believe the Biden administration has done an excellent job so far.

Hitler's strategy, time and again, was to (i) claim that native Germans were being oppressed; (ii) blamed neighboring countries for war-mongering; (iii) staged an event as excuse for going in; (iv) used that event as pretext for an attack/occupation. This is what happened in Austria, in Sudetenland, in Poland, ... (The example of Poland was very cruel. The Nazis rounded up prisoners from concentration camps, dressed them in Polish uniforms, killed them with lethal injections of poison, had them shot as if casualties, had SS soldiers seize a radio station and claim to be Polish soldiers, and then invaded.) What's changed since the 1930s that could have thwarted these actions? First, there's satellite imaging; second, there's instant global communication.

Putin attempted the same approach: (i) claimed that Russians in Ukraine are facing genocide; (ii) blamed Ukraine for war-mongering; (iii) staged an event involving its allies in eastern Ukraine; (iv) is threatening to use that event as pretext for an attack/occupation. What have the Americans done? Used satellite images to reveal the real aggressor and shared intelligence to predict what Putin would do. Staging an event in eastern Ukraine, and hearing Russian statements about genocide against them, now rings hollow because the American president and Secretary of State revealed a week ago that this is exactly what Russia would do. They've used satellite and intelligence information to undermine the Russian messaging - and I think that's been quite clever.

Four years ago, Putin saw an opportunity to split NATO by encouraging President Trump to threaten funding, question NATO's value, and adopt a caustic attitude toward the leaders of NATO countries. If this situation with Ukraine had happened back then, NATO might have disintegrated as an effective force. In less than 18 months, President Biden has reversed that trend. I suspect that Putin thought the cracks still existed, but instead he's facing a united NATO. In fact, his actions has led to the complete opposite result than he anticipated: America and others are calling his bluff. What is he going to do now?

This is very opposite of appeasement. The West has learned its lesson. I'm yet to be convinced that America has learned its lesson about the folly of isolationism, but all credit to a president that's not waiting to find out but is taking the lead. I only hope that most Americans will follow - despite the predictable harping we're already hearing from Trumpists.

[Sibdane]

6 hours ago, Palfy said:

Good I hope I’m wrong, so why don’t America and Europe say to Putin attack Ukraine and we will defend them with the same force used against them for me that would make it just. 

I have no doubt that the USA will step in physically, if needed, but Europe as a whole needs to step up and and defend themselves too. 

[Sibdane]

5 hours ago, Cornish Steve said:

Let me expand a little on why I believe the Biden administration has done an excellent job so far.

Hitler's strategy, time and again, was to (i) claim that native Germans were being oppressed; (ii) blamed neighboring countries for war-mongering; (iii) staged an event as excuse for going in; (iv) used that event as pretext for an attack/occupation. This is what happened in Austria, in Sudetenland, in Poland, ... (The example of Poland was very cruel. The Nazis rounded up prisoners from concentration camps, dressed them in Polish uniforms, killed them with lethal injections of poison, had them shot as if casualties, had SS soldiers seize a radio station and claim to be Polish soldiers, and then invaded.) What's changed since the 1930s that could have thwarted these actions? First, there's satellite imaging; second, there's instant global communication.

Putin attempted the same approach: (i) claimed that Russians in Ukraine are facing genocide; (ii) blamed Ukraine for war-mongering; (iii) staged an event involving its allies in eastern Ukraine; (iv) is threatening to use that event as pretext for an attack/occupation. What have the Americans done? Used satellite images to reveal the real aggressor and shared intelligence to predict what Putin would do. Staging an event in eastern Ukraine, and hearing Russian statements about genocide against them, now rings hollow because the American president and Secretary of State revealed a week ago that this is exactly what Russia would do. They've used satellite and intelligence information to undermine the Russian messaging - and I think that's been quite clever.

Four years ago, Putin saw an opportunity to split NATO by encouraging President Trump to threaten funding, question NATO's value, and adopt a caustic attitude toward the leaders of NATO countries. If this situation with Ukraine had happened back then, NATO might have disintegrated as an effective force. In less than 18 months, President Biden has reversed that trend. I suspect that Putin thought the cracks still existed, but instead he's facing a united NATO. In fact, his actions has led to the complete opposite result than he anticipated: America and others are calling his bluff. What is he going to do now?

This is very opposite of appeasement. The West has learned its lesson. I'm yet to be convinced that America has learned its lesson about the folly of isolationism, but all credit to a president that's not waiting to find out but is taking the lead. I only hope that most Americans will follow - despite the predictable harping we're already hearing from Trumpists.

Military strategy takes years. I imagine Putin was planning this while Trump was President, and Trump’s departure didn’t match his plans. I bet it’s been a pretty large bottleneck actually. 

[Matt]

9 hours ago, Sibdane said:

Military strategy takes years. I imagine Putin was planning this while Trump was President, and Trump’s departure didn’t match his plans. I bet it’s been a pretty large bottleneck actually. 

Putin will have been planning and has been probing for well over a decade. 

[Sibdane]

That was quite the speech. Putin really is a nutcase, huh? 

[johnh]

18 hours ago, Sibdane said:

I have no doubt that the USA will step in physically, if needed, but Europe as a whole needs to step up and and defend themselves too. 

Well Germany have done their bit.  They sent 5,000 steel helmets to Ukraine.

[johnh]

If Russia invade Ukraine we should send the SAS in, occupy the Kremlin and saw Putin's table in half.

[Cornish Steve]

In the West, we just assume that democracy is the only real and sensible form of government, and we condemn other forms. The truth is that different cultures lend themselves to different forms, and Russia seems to struggle with democracy. Their culture demands a strong man approach, and Putin has taken full advantage.

[Romey 1878]

Well, it’s mostly been nice knowing you all

 

[Palfy]

24 minutes ago, Cornish Steve said:

In the West, we just assume that democracy is the only real and sensible form of government, and we condemn other forms. The truth is that different cultures lend themselves to different forms, and Russia seems to struggle with democracy. Their culture demands a strong man approach, and Putin has taken full advantage.

Russia hasn’t had a fair crack at democracy for well over a hundred years, and those who desire a democratic society  are either killed or sent to Siberian labour camps with most never leaving a live. Is this what their culture demands because that’s the reality of the strong man approach you seem to think they deserve. 

[MikeO]

On 18/02/2022 at 05:11, Palfy said:

The attack imo is inevitable and will take place after the Winter Olympics...

When you posted that I thought, "yup" and you were right.

Country that can't even compete under their own name due to government sponsored cheating still had to see out the pretence.

[Matt]

8 hours ago, Palfy said:

Russia hasn’t had a fair crack at democracy for well over a hundred years, and those who desire a democratic society  are either killed or sent to Siberian labour camps with most never leaving a live. Is this what their culture demands because that’s the reality of the strong man approach you seem to think they deserve. 

Deserve?! Steve's point is completely accurate in assessment.