Ukraine/Russian Conflict

[Matt]

7 hours ago, RPG said:

Given today's announcement of 'partial mobilisation' of Russian Reserves by Putin (up to 300,000 Reservists) I thought it was worth bumping this thread back into play. I think Putin is getting desperate. His front line troops are poorly trained, have no kit (or have abandoned what kit they had) and are retreating. What can Putin expect from Reserves? The Russian stock market is down 10% in a single day, the price of a flight to get out of Russia is now prohibitively expensive (unless you are a 'pro Putin' oligarch of course), Kazakhstan has started impounding Russian convoys in accordance with Western Sanctions, Armenia is now starting to politically distance itself from Russia and awkward questions for Putin are now being asked fairly openly on Russian TV channels.

Hopefully, this is the beginning of the end for Putin but he remains very dangerous until detained or taken out by his own side I think. We are now entering a dangerous and decisive phase and I fear it will get worse before it gets better.

I saw the cannon fodder is being mobilised. After all the proclamations of strength and superiority, his trained professional army is being outdone because of Cold War tech and tactics. I feel for a lot of the Russian people too in a way, they're about to become a meatshield as with Stalin. Not to mention all those that will be imprisoned.

[RPG]

11 hours ago, Matt said:

I saw the cannon fodder is being mobilised. After all the proclamations of strength and superiority, his trained professional army is being outdone because of Cold War tech and tactics. I feel for a lot of the Russian people too in a way, they're about to become a meatshield as with Stalin. Not to mention all those that will be imprisoned.

Very sad state of affairs but Putin has to be stopped. Hopefully his own side will take care of matters. I think that once he is unable to hide all the body bags from Russian MSM and he realises that Europe can withstand any effects of lack of Russian gas over the winter, then he will bluster and bluff about use of nuclear weapons but will ultimately cave in or, more likely, be taken out by his own side.

Very tense times though.

[Matt]

5 hours ago, RPG said:

Very sad state of affairs but Putin has to be stopped. Hopefully his own side will take care of matters. I think that once he is unable to hide all the body bags from Russian MSM and he realises that Europe can withstand any effects of lack of Russian gas over the winter, then he will bluster and bluff about use of nuclear weapons but will ultimately cave in or, more likely, be taken out by his own side.

Very tense times though.

The winter really is the key to his tactics at this point. We need our MSM to not make a bigger deal out of it as they are doing.

Russian MSM means nothing in Russia since they're state controlled. But the population over there aren't stupid. A quick decisive victory announced 8-9 months ago, lead by the self-proclaimed best miltiarty, doesn't require 300k+ civvies to bolster numbers. 

He will have to be taken out by his own else its nuclear war. But all those close to him have been carefully cultivated for decades now. Some arguably are worse than him too. 

[RPG]

4 hours ago, Matt said:

The winter really is the key to his tactics at this point. We need our MSM to not make a bigger deal out of it as they are doing.

Russian MSM means nothing in Russia since they're state controlled. But the population over there aren't stupid. A quick decisive victory announced 8-9 months ago, lead by the self-proclaimed best miltiarty, doesn't require 300k+ civvies to bolster numbers. 

He will have to be taken out by his own else its nuclear war. But all those close to him have been carefully cultivated for decades now. Some arguably are worse than him too. 

There are now some sizeable protests happening, even in Moscow and St Petersburg. They are being met with a very heavy handed response as you would expect but the fact that these protests are still happening is encouraging.

The next week or so may be very interesting.

An example of Russian media (State TV allegedly) slowly, gradually but surely changing tack: And this was one day before mobilisation was announced.

 

[RPG]

And this being reported on the BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62981293

[Matt]

This is why I've always had a problem with media describing it as Russias invasion.  It's Putins invasion.

[Hafnia]

33 minutes ago, Matt said:

This is why I've always had a problem with media describing it as Russias invasion.  It's Putins invasion.

Agreed. Surely there must be things happening behind the scenes that make his position somewhat shaky with his own generals.  The ominous thing is that he will know this and paranoia isn’t a good ingredient in this. 
 

it’s like gladiator isn’t it? The emperor knows he’s wrong, he knows he has people pretending to like him and the paranoia makes him increasingly hostile and irrational. The question is who is maximus in a this? 

[RPG]

1 hour ago, Matt said:

This is why I've always had a problem with media describing it as Russias invasion.  It's Putins invasion.

It is, but:

Putin and Russia may not be willingly singing from the same hymn sheet but they are stood in the same chorus and singing together at the moment - albeit some are singing 'without gusto.'

The trick is separating Putin from Russia and then changing the hymn. And that is not going to be easy.

[Palfy]

5 hours ago, Hafnia said:

Agreed. Surely there must be things happening behind the scenes that make his position somewhat shaky with his own generals.  The ominous thing is that he will know this and paranoia isn’t a good ingredient in this. 
 

it’s like gladiator isn’t it? The emperor knows he’s wrong, he knows he has people pretending to like him and the paranoia makes him increasingly hostile and irrational. The question is who is maximus in a this? 

The Generals they control the army, they will ultimately tell him it’s the end even though he may not accept it, in the same way Johnson had to go, and if he tries to use nuclear weapons they will just remove him, they won’t want a nuclear war to destroy everything they know and hold dear. He’s getting very close to the end of his control over Russia.  

[Matt]

1 hour ago, Palfy said:

The Generals they control the army, they will ultimately tell him it’s the end even though he may not accept it, in the same way Johnson had to go, and if he tries to use nuclear weapons they will just remove him, they won’t want a nuclear war to destroy everything they know and hold dear. He’s getting very close to the end of his control over Russia.  

We can hope. 

[Hafnia]

1 hour ago, Palfy said:

The Generals they control the army, they will ultimately tell him it’s the end even though he may not accept it, in the same way Johnson had to go, and if he tries to use nuclear weapons they will just remove him, they won’t want a nuclear war to destroy everything they know and hold dear. He’s getting very close to the end of his control over Russia.  

You reckon his end is nigh? 

[Palfy]

3 hours ago, Hafnia said:

You reckon his end is nigh? 

I think it’s getting close, his regular troops are surrendering or running from the fight, he’s now trying to mobilise a civilian army who don’t want to fight. He is again threatening nuclear weapons to try and stop the support of weapons to Ukraine, for me the signs are starting show his back is up against the wall and his authority is being questioned by more and more Russians every day. 

[RPG]

30 minutes ago, Palfy said:

I think it’s getting close, his regular troops are surrendering or running from the fight, he’s now trying to mobilise a civilian army who don’t want to fight. He is again threatening nuclear weapons to try and stop the support of weapons to Ukraine, for me the signs are starting show his back is up against the wall and his authority is being questioned by more and more Russians every day. 

I agree but it also makes Putin more dangerous until he is taken out by his own side.

[Palfy]

1 minute ago, RPG said:

I agree but it also makes Putin more dangerous until he is taken out by his own side.

It does make him more dangerous and that will be his ultimate down fall, if he was to withdraw and say special operations have been completed he will keep his Presidency and live to fight another day. 

[RPG]

2 hours ago, Palfy said:

It does make him more dangerous and that will be his ultimate down fall, if he was to withdraw and say special operations have been completed he will keep his Presidency and live to fight another day. 

I don't think that fits with Putin's personality well enough for him to try that as he would know he had been beaten and he would know that the world (including most of Russia) would also know he had bean beaten.

I think this only ends one of 3 ways.

1) Putin threatens nuclear war. West capitulates and forces Ukraine to accept an unjust settlement. Very unlikely imho.

2) Putin threatens and begins to enact escalation - reserve forces begin entering Ukraine. The west responds and demonstrates its resolve and capability with a massive conventional attack on Russian forces in Ukraine or on Ukraine/Russian border - taking out thousands of Russian reserves. The west then tells Putin to commence immediate withdrawal from all of Ukraine or more attacks will come without warning. Putin withdraws (which is more likely but still not good odds) or moves on as in 3) below. 

3) Putin threatens further escalation. West calls his bluff. Putin prepares to start pressing big red buttons but is taken out by his own side. Most likely, but still fraught with risk.

As today is the first day of the 'referenda' that are taking place in Ukraine, I thought it worthwhile to post the results of the Independence referendum Ukraine held in 1991, immediately after the breakup of USSR/CIS. 84% turnout and not a single region voted for anything other than independence - though Crimea was reasonably close.

 

 

[RPG]

Interesting find in one of Usmanov's mansions.

 

[Hafnia]

56 minutes ago, RPG said:

Interesting find in one of Usmanov's mansions.

 

If they are real why were they not locked up in a vault? Worth an absolute fortune. 

[RPG]

1 hour ago, Hafnia said:

If they are real why were they not locked up in a vault? Worth an absolute fortune. 

No idea.

[MikeO]

2 hours ago, Hafnia said:

If they are real why were they not locked up in a vault? Worth an absolute fortune. 

Possibly he thought the villa itself was secure enough?

[Hafnia]

34 minutes ago, MikeO said:

Possibly he thought the villa itself was secure enough?

Clearly not!  Aren’t they worth £40m a piece?  This is the sort of stuff that is kept in vaults and you get sophisticated robbers to steal. Then again if you are worth billions it’s like us leaving a Rolex watch in the underpants draw. 

[Gwlad all over]

I've got 6 free range eggs in my fridge (sorry).

[RPG]

This won't help, if accurate. China was starting to rein Putin in a bit.

Chinese President under house arrest? General Li Qiaoming's name emerges amid Xi Jinping's crackdown (newsroompost.com)

[Matt]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-63045333?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6333046ee5f7325d62a02210%26First results reported from so-called referendums in occupied regions%262022-09-27T14%3A10%3A55.468Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:b2088521-6369-472f-8323-8297489e09cb&pinned_post_asset_id=6333046ee5f7325d62a02210&pinned_post_type=share

And as expected...

[Romey 1878]

4 minutes ago, Matt said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-63045333?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6333046ee5f7325d62a02210%26First results reported from so-called referendums in occupied regions%262022-09-27T14%3A10%3A55.468Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:b2088521-6369-472f-8323-8297489e09cb&pinned_post_asset_id=6333046ee5f7325d62a02210&pinned_post_type=share

And as expected...

It's amazing what happens when you have to vote with a gun pointed at you.

[Matt]

25 minutes ago, Romey 1878 said:

It's amazing what happens when you have to vote with a gun pointed at you.

You think they're counting ballot papers, gun or not? Those boxes might as well have paper shredders in them, the results have been in the envelopes back in Moscow since the counterattack started  

[RPG]

11 hours ago, Matt said:

You think they're counting ballot papers, gun or not? Those boxes might as well have paper shredders in them, the results have been in the envelopes back in Moscow since the counterattack started  

We are entering the final phase now I think - though the phase may drag on a bit. Expect an announcement from Putin before the end of the week that the 4 regions have now been annexed into Russia and that any attack on them by Ukraine will be regarded as an attack on Russian territory and met with 'all weapons that are available.' This will likely be followed by a very short war of words between Ukraine/The West and Russia and then advances by Ukraine as it continues to reclaim land from the Russian invasion force.

Then, it's a case of who blinks first. Support for Ukraine should be ramped up, Russia will continue to lose the conventional military battle and Putin will then either choose to use, or choose not to use, non-conventional weapons. If he chooses not to use non-conventional weapons he has lost but can at least walk away. If he chooses to use non-conventional weapons he has also lost and Russia will pay a price (not just militarily) that will take generations to even begin the process of recovery from.

It should be pointed out that Russia already claims to have annexed Crimea (post 2014 invasion) and did not respond with non-conventional weapons when Ukraine acknowledged being behind the attacks there this year. Ukraine has also carried out raids on military targets inside mainland Russia, also without a non-conventional response from Putin.

I just hope someone in Russia with access to Putin and a pistol stops this mad man before many more thousands die.

[Matt]

2 hours ago, RPG said:

We are entering the final phase now I think - though the phase may drag on a bit. Expect an announcement from Putin before the end of the week that the 4 regions have now been annexed into Russia and that any attack on them by Ukraine will be regarded as an attack on Russian territory and met with 'all weapons that are available.' This will likely be followed by a very short war of words between Ukraine/The West and Russia and then advances by Ukraine as it continues to reclaim land from the Russian invasion force.

Then, it's a case of who blinks first. Support for Ukraine should be ramped up, Russia will continue to lose the conventional military battle and Putin will then either choose to use, or choose not to use, non-conventional weapons. If he chooses not to use non-conventional weapons he has lost but can at least walk away. If he chooses to use non-conventional weapons he has also lost and Russia will pay a price (not just militarily) that will take generations to even begin the process of recovery from.

It should be pointed out that Russia already claims to have annexed Crimea (post 2014 invasion) and did not respond with non-conventional weapons when Ukraine acknowledged being behind the attacks there this year. Ukraine has also carried out raids on military targets inside mainland Russia, also without a non-conventional response from Putin.

I just hope someone in Russia with access to Putin and a pistol stops this mad man before many more thousands die.

A supposed attack on the pipelines too. Dunno about final but it's about to become more global. 

[RPG]

14 minutes ago, Matt said:

A supposed attack on the pipelines too. Dunno about final but it's about to become more global. 

I think sabotage on the pipelines is pretty much confirmed. The only question to answer is 'by whom?' Russia is maybe the logical answer but Ukraine could gain from it too (though it wouldn't be popular with its western supporters so is very unlikely imho) as all other Russia/Euro gas lines pass through Ukraine territory.

[RPG]

Must be some sort of record. Three days from receiving mobilisation papers in Russia to being a POW in Ukraine!

 

[Matt]

isn't that an Albanian passport? Hard to tell on my phone 

[RPG]

What could possibly go wrong?

https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/other/donald-trump-volunteers-to-mediate-a-peace-agreement-with-putin/ss-AA12nTvk?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=1c64082cfd7f444193f7b91455b252c6#image=2

[Cornish Steve]

Unfortunately, I suspect Russia's evacuation of Kherson is a prelude to its first use of tactical nuclear weapons. How the West responds will be crucial.

[Matt]

4 hours ago, Cornish Steve said:

Unfortunately, I suspect Russia's evacuation of Kherson is a prelude to its first use of tactical nuclear weapons. How the West responds will be crucial.

I fear you maybe right. It would keep the land bridge that's so important to them and "protect" Crimea, not to mention deal a massive blow to Ukraine before winter. It all seems very devious. 

[Cornish Steve]

3 hours ago, Matt said:

I fear you maybe right. It would keep the land bridge that's so important to them and "protect" Crimea, not to mention deal a massive blow to Ukraine before winter. It all seems very devious. 

Republican leaders have just stated that, if they win control of the House in the upcoming elections, they will pull US support for Ukraine. That would be a complete and utter disaster.

[Matt]

20 minutes ago, Cornish Steve said:

Republican leaders have just stated that, if they win control of the House in the upcoming elections, they will pull US support for Ukraine. That would be a complete and utter disaster.

That's putting all of Europe into danger, I don't think they will. Scale it back maybe, but they won't pull it. 

[RPG]

5 hours ago, Matt said:

I fear you maybe right. It would keep the land bridge that's so important to them and "protect" Crimea, not to mention deal a massive blow to Ukraine before winter. It all seems very devious. 

I'm not saying that it isn't a possibility but I think it is more likely that Putin is just getting himself a large number of human shields and trying to improve his very limited negotiating position for when he eventually admits defeat. There will undoubtedly be booby traps left by retreating Russians all over Kherson and there is also the possibility of the dam being destroyed. Winter will hit hard in only a couple of weeks and the Russian forces are very poorly trained and/or equipped to deal with the additional challenges posed by consistent sub zero temperatures.

Now is the time to give Ukraine all the hardware assistance it needs, to protect Ukrainian cities and to continue taking the fight to Russia.

[Matt]

10 minutes ago, RPG said:

I'm not saying that it isn't a possibility but I think it is more likely that Putin is just getting himself a large number of human shields and trying to improve his very limited negotiating position for when he eventually admits defeat. There will undoubtedly be booby traps left by retreating Russians all over Kherson and there is also the possibility of the dam being destroyed. Winter will hit hard in only a couple of weeks and the Russian forces are very poorly trained and/or equipped to deal with the additional challenges posed by consistent sub zero temperatures.

Now is the time to give Ukraine all the hardware assistance it needs, to protect Ukrainian cities and to continue taking the fight to Russia.

The winter has always served them well, trained or not. 

I'm not sure about about booby traps. I'm not sure they have the hardware to spare. Plus, seeing how they booby trapped previous withdrawals, I don't think it'll be as dangerous as before. 

Human shield theory holds though, I hope you're wrong. 

[RPG]

14 minutes ago, Matt said:

The winter has always served them well, trained or not. 

I'm not sure about about booby traps. I'm not sure they have the hardware to spare. Plus, seeing how they booby trapped previous withdrawals, I don't think it'll be as dangerous as before. 

Human shield theory holds though, I hope you're wrong. 

Winters that served Russia well in the past occurred when the Russians were defending Russia and it was opposing forces (mainly German troops) who had a massive logistical tail to support. This time it is very much the other way around and Russia will likely lose as many troops to the environment (frostbite, hypothermia, degradation of morale leading to surrender, going awol, self inflicted injuries etc) as they do to Ukraine action.

[Formby]

2 hours ago, Cornish Steve said:

Republican leaders have just stated that, if they win control of the House in the upcoming elections, they will pull US support for Ukraine. That would be a complete and utter disaster.

I am sure the US military would advise against that.

[Matt]

11 minutes ago, RPG said:

Winters that served Russia well in the past occurred when the Russians were defending Russia and it was opposing forces (mainly German troops) who had a massive logistical tail to support. This time it is very much the other way around and Russia will likely lose as many troops to the environment (frostbite, hypothermia, degradation of morale leading to surrender, going awol, self inflicted injuries etc) as they do to Ukraine action.

So far as Putin is concerned, much like Stalin, he will be defending Russia regardless. Misery of troops has never been a concern of Russian military, they're more about quantity rather than quality. 

[Matt]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63319100

Starting to panic? It's going to get even more tense very quickly I fear. 

[RPG]

2 hours ago, Matt said:

So far as Putin is concerned, much like Stalin, he will be defending Russia regardless. Misery of troops has never been a concern of Russian military, they're more about quantity rather than quality. 

No argument there but it will affect the military outcome. Ukraine forces are better supplied, better trained, better led and have a far higher morale and belief in their cause than the Russian forces. I can see many Russians choosing POW status over death, frostbite or a Russian prison cell.

[Matt]

1 hour ago, RPG said:

No argument there but it will affect the military outcome. Ukraine forces are better supplied, better trained, better led and have a far higher morale and belief in their cause than the Russian forces. I can see many Russians choosing POW status over death, frostbite or a Russian prison cell.

It will, and as Steve mentioned its looking to go in the way of mini-nukes. I think if it does, NATO gets involved and I can see China stepping back a bit from the Russian relations. Plus the new general was supposedly ruthless in Syria, dread to think what he'd be like "defending the motherland".

It's going to get much worse before it gets better. 

[RPG]

Things are slowly but surely escalating to a point where it's going to get out of control. We have already had a missile release (allegedly due technical malfunction) from a Russian fighter (SU-27) in close proximity to a RAF RC 135 Rivet Joint aircraft in international airspace. This happened 29/9/22 but the info has only recently (20/10/22) been made public.

Now we have the US 101st Airborne Division fully deployed in Rumania, next to the Ukraine border at the Black Sea and it has publicly been declared to be 'fully combat ready.' 

There are also, as yet unconfirmed, reports of Russians using chemical weapons on Ukraine forces.