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Ukraine/Russian Conflict


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7 hours ago, RPG said:

Given today's announcement of 'partial mobilisation' of Russian Reserves by Putin (up to 300,000 Reservists) I thought it was worth bumping this thread back into play. I think Putin is getting desperate. His front line troops are poorly trained, have no kit (or have abandoned what kit they had) and are retreating. What can Putin expect from Reserves? The Russian stock market is down 10% in a single day, the price of a flight to get out of Russia is now prohibitively expensive (unless you are a 'pro Putin' oligarch of course), Kazakhstan has started impounding Russian convoys in accordance with Western Sanctions, Armenia is now starting to politically distance itself from Russia and awkward questions for Putin are now being asked fairly openly on Russian TV channels.

Hopefully, this is the beginning of the end for Putin but he remains very dangerous until detained or taken out by his own side I think. We are now entering a dangerous and decisive phase and I fear it will get worse before it gets better.

I saw the cannon fodder is being mobilised. After all the proclamations of strength and superiority, his trained professional army is being outdone because of Cold War tech and tactics. I feel for a lot of the Russian people too in a way, they're about to become a meatshield as with Stalin. Not to mention all those that will be imprisoned.

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11 hours ago, Matt said:

I saw the cannon fodder is being mobilised. After all the proclamations of strength and superiority, his trained professional army is being outdone because of Cold War tech and tactics. I feel for a lot of the Russian people too in a way, they're about to become a meatshield as with Stalin. Not to mention all those that will be imprisoned.

Very sad state of affairs but Putin has to be stopped. Hopefully his own side will take care of matters. I think that once he is unable to hide all the body bags from Russian MSM and he realises that Europe can withstand any effects of lack of Russian gas over the winter, then he will bluster and bluff about use of nuclear weapons but will ultimately cave in or, more likely, be taken out by his own side.

Very tense times though.

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5 hours ago, RPG said:

Very sad state of affairs but Putin has to be stopped. Hopefully his own side will take care of matters. I think that once he is unable to hide all the body bags from Russian MSM and he realises that Europe can withstand any effects of lack of Russian gas over the winter, then he will bluster and bluff about use of nuclear weapons but will ultimately cave in or, more likely, be taken out by his own side.

Very tense times though.

The winter really is the key to his tactics at this point. We need our MSM to not make a bigger deal out of it as they are doing.

Russian MSM means nothing in Russia since they're state controlled. But the population over there aren't stupid. A quick decisive victory announced 8-9 months ago, lead by the self-proclaimed best miltiarty, doesn't require 300k+ civvies to bolster numbers. 

He will have to be taken out by his own else its nuclear war. But all those close to him have been carefully cultivated for decades now. Some arguably are worse than him too. 

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4 hours ago, Matt said:

The winter really is the key to his tactics at this point. We need our MSM to not make a bigger deal out of it as they are doing.

Russian MSM means nothing in Russia since they're state controlled. But the population over there aren't stupid. A quick decisive victory announced 8-9 months ago, lead by the self-proclaimed best miltiarty, doesn't require 300k+ civvies to bolster numbers. 

He will have to be taken out by his own else its nuclear war. But all those close to him have been carefully cultivated for decades now. Some arguably are worse than him too. 

There are now some sizeable protests happening, even in Moscow and St Petersburg. They are being met with a very heavy handed response as you would expect but the fact that these protests are still happening is encouraging.

The next week or so may be very interesting.

An example of Russian media (State TV allegedly) slowly, gradually but surely changing tack: And this was one day before mobilisation was announced.

 

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33 minutes ago, Matt said:

This is why I've always had a problem with media describing it as Russias invasion.  It's Putins invasion.

Agreed. Surely there must be things happening behind the scenes that make his position somewhat shaky with his own generals.  The ominous thing is that he will know this and paranoia isn’t a good ingredient in this. 
 

it’s like gladiator isn’t it? The emperor knows he’s wrong, he knows he has people pretending to like him and the paranoia makes him increasingly hostile and irrational. The question is who is maximus in a this? 

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1 hour ago, Matt said:

This is why I've always had a problem with media describing it as Russias invasion.  It's Putins invasion.

It is, but:

Putin and Russia may not be willingly singing from the same hymn sheet but they are stood in the same chorus and singing together at the moment - albeit some are singing 'without gusto.'

The trick is separating Putin from Russia and then changing the hymn. And that is not going to be easy.

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5 hours ago, Hafnia said:

Agreed. Surely there must be things happening behind the scenes that make his position somewhat shaky with his own generals.  The ominous thing is that he will know this and paranoia isn’t a good ingredient in this. 
 

it’s like gladiator isn’t it? The emperor knows he’s wrong, he knows he has people pretending to like him and the paranoia makes him increasingly hostile and irrational. The question is who is maximus in a this? 

The Generals they control the army, they will ultimately tell him it’s the end even though he may not accept it, in the same way Johnson had to go, and if he tries to use nuclear weapons they will just remove him, they won’t want a nuclear war to destroy everything they know and hold dear. He’s getting very close to the end of his control over Russia.  

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1 hour ago, Palfy said:

The Generals they control the army, they will ultimately tell him it’s the end even though he may not accept it, in the same way Johnson had to go, and if he tries to use nuclear weapons they will just remove him, they won’t want a nuclear war to destroy everything they know and hold dear. He’s getting very close to the end of his control over Russia.  

We can hope. 

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1 hour ago, Palfy said:

The Generals they control the army, they will ultimately tell him it’s the end even though he may not accept it, in the same way Johnson had to go, and if he tries to use nuclear weapons they will just remove him, they won’t want a nuclear war to destroy everything they know and hold dear. He’s getting very close to the end of his control over Russia.  

You reckon his end is nigh? 

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3 hours ago, Hafnia said:

You reckon his end is nigh? 

I think it’s getting close, his regular troops are surrendering or running from the fight, he’s now trying to mobilise a civilian army who don’t want to fight. He is again threatening nuclear weapons to try and stop the support of weapons to Ukraine, for me the signs are starting show his back is up against the wall and his authority is being questioned by more and more Russians every day. 

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30 minutes ago, Palfy said:

I think it’s getting close, his regular troops are surrendering or running from the fight, he’s now trying to mobilise a civilian army who don’t want to fight. He is again threatening nuclear weapons to try and stop the support of weapons to Ukraine, for me the signs are starting show his back is up against the wall and his authority is being questioned by more and more Russians every day. 

I agree but it also makes Putin more dangerous until he is taken out by his own side.

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1 minute ago, RPG said:

I agree but it also makes Putin more dangerous until he is taken out by his own side.

It does make him more dangerous and that will be his ultimate down fall, if he was to withdraw and say special operations have been completed he will keep his Presidency and live to fight another day. 

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2 hours ago, Palfy said:

It does make him more dangerous and that will be his ultimate down fall, if he was to withdraw and say special operations have been completed he will keep his Presidency and live to fight another day. 

I don't think that fits with Putin's personality well enough for him to try that as he would know he had been beaten and he would know that the world (including most of Russia) would also know he had bean beaten.

I think this only ends one of 3 ways.

1) Putin threatens nuclear war. West capitulates and forces Ukraine to accept an unjust settlement. Very unlikely imho.

2) Putin threatens and begins to enact escalation - reserve forces begin entering Ukraine. The west responds and demonstrates its resolve and capability with a massive conventional attack on Russian forces in Ukraine or on Ukraine/Russian border - taking out thousands of Russian reserves. The west then tells Putin to commence immediate withdrawal from all of Ukraine or more attacks will come without warning. Putin withdraws (which is more likely but still not good odds) or moves on as in 3) below. 

3) Putin threatens further escalation. West calls his bluff. Putin prepares to start pressing big red buttons but is taken out by his own side. Most likely, but still fraught with risk.

As today is the first day of the 'referenda' that are taking place in Ukraine, I thought it worthwhile to post the results of the Independence referendum Ukraine held in 1991, immediately after the breakup of USSR/CIS. 84% turnout and not a single region voted for anything other than independence - though Crimea was reasonably close.

screen_shot_2022_09_23_at_10_46_18_am_d6

 

 

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34 minutes ago, MikeO said:

Possibly he thought the villa itself was secure enough?

Clearly not!  Aren’t they worth £40m a piece?  This is the sort of stuff that is kept in vaults and you get sophisticated robbers to steal. Then again if you are worth billions it’s like us leaving a Rolex watch in the underpants draw. 

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