Ukraine/Russian Conflict

[Cornish Steve]

1 hour ago, Matt said:

They do seem laughable really. but it's still ramping up. I think he's doing this so he can say "UK helped first" knowing that the EU and US are going to bring in their own. Plus sanctions hit our economy too, so by ramping up he's protecting the UK.  

SWIFT is a big deal. Personally I wish they'd just play that card but there's global implications of it so needs global support. That they've said it's not impossible is a good sign at least.

The excuse for appeasement is always that it hurts the nation to do otherwise. Not freezing SWIFT access would, in the current circumstances, be appeasement. Either we accept an element of pain now or we'll be forced to accept greater pain in the future.

[Sir McGiven]

8 hours ago, Matt said:

They do seem laughable really. but it's still ramping up. I think he's doing this so he can say "UK helped first" knowing that the EU and US are going to bring in their own. Plus sanctions hit our economy too, so by ramping up he's protecting the UK.  

SWIFT is a big deal. Personally I wish they'd just play that card but there's global implications of it so needs global support. That they've said it's not impossible is a good sign at least.

That decision comes with huge technical problems and also damages every country which are in the SWIFT system. Removing Russians from the SWIFT system has been on the table before as well but never been processed because of the same reason.

On the other hand, I used to live in Donetsk and Luhansk 11 years ago. Donetsk used to be one of their biggest cities in whole country, not just in Donbass area. A big "business man" Rinat Akhmedov used to own half of the city by himself, then he is kind of eliminated by Russians. Luhansk on the other hand was a small country-side-like city of Ukraine. I have spent a year and half of my life over there. I have had good friends, collected good memories back in my time there. Many of my Ukrainian friends were killed during the first conflict. The rest who were on Ukrainian side had to flee.

Both cities, though, were most like Russian cities even back then I must say. Except the governmental stuff, people used to talk and write in Russian. They used to cross borders many times in a day. People were hanging Russian flags onto their cars instead of Ukrainian flag. In the western side of the country though, especially in Kiev, if you were talking in Russian you could get ignored by people immediately. I am not trying to justfiying madness of Putin, but more like trying to give an insight. Putin, on the other hand, I can bet he is jerking off to his Russian Imperial dreams at the moment...

What suprised me is that he really gone for it and bombed Kiev as I was thinking he is playing cool, getting what he wants without a hot conflict. He insane but do not forget, Ukraine is very important for Russia and EU were poking it for a long time already. Their north sea business are out-played by EU and NATO. Their one and only trade port on the north is covered in ice for 6 months every year. For Russia's naval trade traffic on the south, Black Sea is the last option and they do not want to give it away. That's why he mentioned historical NATO moments in his speech just before the invasion.

 

The very last time that I have seen Donbas area was 5 years ago. I was called and invited by the IFRC to the zone for a project they were trying to implement after the Russian invasion. I have seen the conflicted zones, mined areas, places I have lived and walked through... Everything was terrifying. 

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-osce-member-killed-mine-blast/28447060.html

Still remembering the people in this car. They were passing by through the road where we were distrubuting food and hygiene boxes, they sounded the horn, waved at us and about an hour later we've heard the news... They were innocent people, like me, my colleagues and affected people around that zone and died for nothing because of a meaningless war.

 

I don't see a bright future for Ukraine. They were always puppet of Putin's Russia. He never let a true strong opponent lead Ukraine. He always micro managed that country, now he wants to claim it totally. A mad mad man. Modern day Hitler... I would love to see real actions against him globally. Not stupid, "we are with you", "we are deeply saddened", "stop the non-sense immediately mr. putin" kind of bullshit. Maybe it is not possible to really save the Ukraine anymore but that greed, it will never end. A couple of years later, he will do the same to Belarus, then another and another. 

[Cornish Steve]

My biggest concern right now is Russia's beeline toward Chernobyl. The only logical reasons for this are all very bad.

[Palfy]

Germany Italy and Hungary holding up more crippling sanctions against the Russians, when this is over any country’s that never did what was required because they were more concerned about how this would impact on their own living standards and not the concerns of Ukraine and the rest of Eastern European State’s need to be brought to task and ostracised if necessary. It’s times like this when you know who your true allies are. 

[Palfy]

2 hours ago, RPG said:

The problem with sanctions is that they cut two ways. Refuse to trade with Russian banks - no more Russian investment in UK as a simple example. I think Putin can now only be stopped with military methods and the longer we leave it, the more costly (in lives and dollars) it will be. I hope to God I am wrong but Putin is just laughing at sanctions while he sticks two fingers up at the west and continues slaughtering innocent people with his invasion of Ukraine.

Purely from a UK perspective, I would far rather fight Russia in Ukraine than in Poland or Latvia or Lithuania or Estonia or........?

I agree this will ultimately end in Military action against Russia ( Putin ) from NATO, there will be weak countries i.e Germany and Italy who at the moment are giving Russia a free rein at the moment for their own economic gains who won’t contribute zilch. Trump was criticised for trying to break NATO but was Trump wrong, not at all he was saying every country in the alliance had a duty to commit 2% of it’s GDP to the union that was the agreement and wasn’t happening, Germany the richest country in Europe was not contributing any where near that, and was not investing in it’s own forces, I would go as far to say that this was because of their huge economic links with Russia, which made them sit on the fence, or they were told not to rock the boat either way the Germans are selling Ukraine and the rest Europe down the river because of their close links economically with Russia..

[Palfy]

The amount of activity on the American airforce base in Fairford as definitely been ramping up in the last couple of days, with B52 bombers coming and going. 

[Haiku]

We all condemn Russian invasion and wish Putin die, but it is in the hands of NATO to decide whether it will be WW3 or not. I fully expect the whole madness to be over in a matter of weeks/month should NATO not interfere, as it happened in Georgia in 2008 by the way. Putin wants cut down West influence in neighboring countries and stop further NATO expansion. Ukraine potentially joining NATO would be a huge blow to Russia dominance in the region, so he couldn't let that happen. There are unlikely to be many civilian casualties should NATO stay away. Otherwise we are all doomed.

[Formby]

3 hours ago, Palfy said:

Germany Italy and Hungary holding up more crippling sanctions against the Russians, when this is over any country’s that never did what was required because they were more concerned about how this would impact on their own living standards and not the concerns of Ukraine and the rest of Eastern European State’s need to be brought to task and ostracised if necessary. It’s times like this when you know who your true allies are. 

How odd - the Triple Alliance from WWI. Hope that's not a sign of things top come!

[Palfy]

3 minutes ago, Formby said:

How odd - the Triple Alliance from WWI. Hope that's not a sign of things top come!

They’ve always been cunts mate sometimes you only see it when the chips are down. 

[Formby]

24 minutes ago, Haiku said:

We all condemn Russian invasion and wish Putin die, but it is in the hands of NATO to decide whether it will be WW3 or not. I fully expect the whole madness to be over in a matter of weeks/month should NATO not interfere, as it happened in Georgia in 2008 by the way. Putin wants cut down West influence in neighboring countries and stop further NATO expansion. Ukraine potentially joining NATO would be a huge blow to Russia dominance in the region, so he couldn't let that happen. There are unlikely to be many civilian casualties should NATO stay away. Otherwise we are all doomed.

I get your partisanship here but it is really in Putin's hands, not NATO's. The school bully can't expect the teachers to stand by whilst he beats up the rest of the class. NATO's fault is not being strong enough with Putin before. 

[Formby]

2 minutes ago, Palfy said:

They’ve always been cunts mate sometimes you only see it when the chips are down. 

You have a way of putting things, @Palfy, that gets right to the heart of the matter.  

[Palfy]

4 minutes ago, Formby said:

I get your partisanship here but it is really in Putin's hands, not NATO's. The school bully can't expect the teachers to stand by whilst he beats up the rest of the class. NATO's fault is not being strong enough with Putin before. 

Because certain NATO members have always made excuses for him in particular Germany for their own economic reasons, Germany have  got themselves so reliant on Russia for oil and gas they have crippled themselves and are fearful of losing that supply, they need to take the pain and consequences for there economic relationships with Russia and stand shoulder to shoulder with the most of the west and their EU partners and agree to the harshest sanctions against Russia. 

[Cornish Steve]

6 hours ago, RPG said:

And if we do that and it doesn't work (it won't), what do we do then? What would we have left? It's a balance between hitting Putin hard now (and I agree we should have done more) while still leaving the threat of even more sanctions to come.

Personally, I think that however we manage economic sanctions, they won't work. Russia has built up massive gold reserves in recent years (and we all know what war does for the price of gold) and if the west is going to be of any practical use to Ukraine it will have to be on a military front.

Just a thought, but if 75% of Russian conventional forces are currently tied up with Ukraine, wouldn't now be a good time to test their remaining 25%? Not in an open NATO war but by supporting and providing aid to Ukrainian forces outside Ukraine.

The line that cannot be crossed is the invasion of a NATO country. 

[Haiku]

1 hour ago, Formby said:

I get your partisanship here but it is really in Putin's hands, not NATO's. The school bully can't expect the teachers to stand by whilst he beats up the rest of the class. NATO's fault is not being strong enough with Putin before. 

Тhat use of words does not correspond to reality whatsoever. NATO has no authority over Russia. It's two military superpowers against each other. Ukrainian president just confirmed Russian troops took control over military airports in Kyiv. Russians are exercising blitzkrieg against 200k well prepared Ukrainian army. With the current pace of the conflict I expect Ukraine will surrender in a few days. How firm do you think NATO should act? What do you think can stop Putin right now, other than full blown world war out of which it's not certain who will come out victorious?

[Romey 1878]

9 minutes ago, Haiku said:

Тhat use of words does not correspond to reality whatsoever. NATO has no authority over Russia. It's two military superpowers against each other. Ukrainian president just confirmed Russian troops took control over military airports in Kyiv. Russians are exercising blitzkrieg against 200k well prepared Ukrainian army. With the current pace of the conflict I expect Ukraine will surrender in a few days. How firm do you think NATO should act? What do you think can stop Putin right now, other than full blown world war out of which it's not certain who will come out victorious?

Do you support the invasion?

I'm not asking in a shitty way, just curious.

[Haiku]

14 minutes ago, Romey 1878 said:

Do you support the invasion?

I'm not asking in a shitty way, just curious.

In no way. If you ask me should NATO interfere, I will give you the same answer. I just want this to end in thе least painful way and it is to let Russia do their thing and that is to cut down western influence in the country. I don't think they are formally going to annex Ukraine. Unfortunately any other scenario leads to a lot of casualties and losses for all.

[Sibdane]

11 minutes ago, Haiku said:

In no way. If you ask me should NATO interfere, I will give you the same answer. I just want this to end in thе least painful way and it is to let Russia do their thing and that is to cut down western influence in the country. I don't think they are formally going to annex Ukraine. Unfortunately any other scenario leads to a lot of casualties and losses for all.

You sound like a real pushover. 

[Romey 1878]

12 minutes ago, Haiku said:

In no way. If you ask me should NATO interfere, I will give you the same answer. I just want this to end in thе least painful way and it is to let Russia do their thing and that is to cut down western influence in the country. I don't think they are formally going to annex Ukraine. Unfortunately any other scenario leads to a lot of casualties and losses for all.

If Ukraine wants Western influence, or to join NATO, should that not be up to Ukraine to decide and not Russia?

I don’t pretend to know a lot about the situation but this act of pure aggression on Russia’s part and the needless loss of life seems a bit extreme and it shouldn’t just be allowed to happen, like you think. 

[London Blue]

3 hours ago, Haiku said:

In no way. If you ask me should NATO interfere, I will give you the same answer. I just want this to end in thе least painful way and it is to let Russia do their thing and that is to cut down western influence in the country. I don't think they are formally going to annex Ukraine. Unfortunately any other scenario leads to a lot of casualties and losses for all.

Didn't work out too well for the allies when the same was said about appeasing Hitler over Czechoslovakia.

Appeasing someone rarely works out.

[Matt]

5 hours ago, Palfy said:

They’ve always been cunts mate sometimes you only see it when the chips are down. 

What a disgracefully ignorant, (borderline) racist comment. 

[Palfy]

9 minutes ago, Matt said:

What a disgracefully ignorant, (borderline) racist comment. 

Not racist just look at their history over the last 110 years. 

[Matt]

7 minutes ago, Palfy said:

Not racist just look at their history over the last 110 years. 

You just generalised 100+ million people with a derogatory term.

[Matt]

As for "weak" because they're holding off on financially crippling their countries, which would force them to borrow (and who buys the most debt?), its very short sighted. Nordline 2 is already a big initial step, and there will be more to come. I wish the world would all come down hard on Putin immediately but the sad reality is that long term that's also very dangerous and self destructive 

[Palfy]

1 minute ago, Matt said:

You just generalised 100+ million people with a derogatory term.

A derogatory term isn’t racist, if you could ask the Ukrainians what they thought of Germany Italy and Hungary not supporting the tougher sanctions, I think you would find cunt pretty mild. 

[Matt]

2 minutes ago, Palfy said:

A derogatory term isn’t racist, if you could ask the Ukrainians what they thought of Germany Italy and Hungary not supporting the tougher sanctions, I think you would find cunt pretty mild. 

I put borderline in there for a reason. You've said it to generalise 3 ancient cultures in a derogatory way. I know you're angry but that is out of line. 

[Matt]

12 hours ago, RPG said:

And if we do that and it doesn't work (it won't), what do we do then? What would we have left? It's a balance between hitting Putin hard now (and I agree we should have done more) while still leaving the threat of even more sanctions to come.

Personally, I think that however we manage economic sanctions, they won't work. Russia has built up massive gold reserves in recent years (and we all know what war does for the price of gold) and if the west is going to be of any practical use to Ukraine it will have to be on a military front.

Just a thought, but if 75% of Russian conventional forces are currently tied up with Ukraine, wouldn't now be a good time to test their remaining 25%? Not in an open NATO war but by supporting and providing aid to Ukrainian forces outside Ukraine.

That would lead to WW3. Putin is looking for any excuse to escalate things further. He's already threatening Finland and Sweden, circumnavigating an "official" NATO war by going through a proxy is as good as openly declaring war. Supplying Ukraine as much as possible with weaponry and aid whilst sanctioning the fuck out of Putins circle is already pushing the boundaries to limits.

[Palfy]

Even Donald Tusk has said Germany and Italy have disgraced themselves over sanctions against Russia, to defend them is to be like them disgraceful. 

[Haiku]

8 hours ago, Sibdane said:

You sound like a real pushover. 

I live 270 km south of Ukraine on the black sea coast. I fear my city could become frontline of further military actions should this escalate. It doesn't help there is NATO base very close from here. Sorry but I have to be realistic and weight the odds for the good sake of my family.

[Matt]

6 hours ago, RPG said:

And it won't work. Putin is a bully. And, like all bullies he will eventually be shown as the coward that he is. He has never taken Russia into a fight that he hasn't first had massive numerical and technological advantage in. NATO would really make him think again if only it could discover its cojones. Yes, there would be escalation but that is coming anyway. Unless you are happy at the prospect of Russian military as far west as the Bay of Biscay. Putin will now keep heading west until he is stopped - militarily!

And the, so far, weak western response will just encourage and embolden Putin more.

And get over confident too probably, which will make him weaker and/or more prone to mistakes. Considering all the advantages he has vs Ukraine, he should be sitting in Kyiv already. But he isn't, and that's considering his numeric and technological advantages (old military saying of "fair fights are for suckers" springs to mind).

I get the desire to go toe to toe, I really do.  But when this kind of thing happens, there has to be patience. You can't just run and jump into a fight with a nutcase coward who has nukes. He's already threatened "any means necessary", he's mentally snapped. 

War is long game thinking. Sad to say but Ukraine is buying time to cripple Putin and Russian economy long term. Its buying time before the inevitable confrontation. The hope is, as I see it, that he won't have the resources or money to feed his troops (he won't care about his population), and his gold reserves will run out quickly when other countries who continue to supply him will extort. He may well advance but he won't be able to sustain it. If we try to resolve this short term its instant sunshine for everyone no matter what time of day. 

12 hours ago, Palfy said:

Even Donald Tusk has said Germany and Italy have disgraced themselves over sanctions against Russia, to defend them is to be like them disgraceful. 

I've just deleted my response. You're clearly stressed out by it so I won't bother trying to reason or explain things with you. 

[Elston Gunnn]

Don’t know where to post this.  If it’s been posted elsewhere, sorry for repeat.

Poland won’t play WC qualifier v. Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/60536030