Europe Next Season

[lilpyrokid951]

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story/_/id/909100/premier-league-clubs-in-limbo-over-european-qualification?cc=5901

 

Just read this article. Seems our hopes of qualifying for Europa League via league position are a bit complicated. I originally thought that only whoever finishes 5th in the league would get a spot in Europe, with the other two spots going to Birmingham since they won the Carling Cup, and to Stoke since they're in the FA Cup final (I thought they'd get a spot win or lose because Man City are sure to qualify for either Champions League or Europa League through their final position in the Premier League). Apparently in the case of the qualifier from the FA cup, it's not quite that simple.

 

Before the UEFA cup became Europa League, it was simple in the sense that the winners of both the Carling Cup and FA Cup would qualify for UEFA cup if they didn't qualify for either of the European competitions through some other channel, be it final position in the league or through the fair play league. If it were the case that the winners of either of the cups qualified through either European competition through some other route, then the spot they earned by winning the cup would go to the runners up of the competitions.

 

Here's where it gets a bit complicated. After the rebranding of the UEFA Cup to the Europa League, the qualification criteria when it comes to the domestic cups changed. In the case of both the Carling and FA Cup, the winners of both are still awarded a spot in the Europa League. However if the winner of either of the cups qualifies for either Champs League or Europa League through some other route, then things get a bit messy. If it's the case that the winner of the cup has already qualified for Europe through some other route, the runner up of that cup is only awarded a spot in Europa League if the winner of the cup qualifies for Champions League.

 

To put it into perspective, here are a few scenarios:

 

1. Stoke wins the FA Cup. They get a spot in the Europa League with the other two spots going to Birmingham (winners of the Carling Cup) and whoever finishes 5th in the Premier League.

 

2. Man City wins the FA Cup, and finish in the top 4 of the Premier League. Stoke gets a spot in the Europa League, with the other two going to Birmingham and 5th place finishers in the Premier league.

 

3. Man City wins the FA cup, and finish 5th in the League. The Europa League spots go to Man City as FA Cup winners, Birmingham and the team who finishes 6th in the Premier League.

 

4. Man City wins the FA cup, and finish 6th or lower in the League. The Europa League spots go to Man City as FA Cup winners, Birmingham and the team who finishes 5th in the Premier League.

 

 

In terms of what each of those means for us, the 1st and 2nd scenarios are the worst for us as it means we have to finish 5th in the League to get a Europa League spot which is nearly impossible (if not mathematically impossible?) for us at this point.

 

The 3rd scenario is the best for us, with the 4th one being not quite as good. In the case of the 3rd scenario, so long as Man City finish 5th and the 4 teams above them are Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs, that means we only have to overhaul Liverpool to finish in 6th and get the last Europa League spot.

 

Thoughts?

Edited April 19, 2011 by American Evertonian

[MikeO]

It's the middle one. We need three bets to come in, none of which is a long shot but how often does a treble come up?

 

Everton top six 3-1.

 

Spurs top four 2-1.

 

City win Cup 4-6.

 

Makes it a 20-1 shot...they happen, but not often and not this time I don't think.

[Wall Writer]

I think the top seven at the end of the season, will be the exactly the same top seven as they are now.

 

Manu

Arsenal

Chelsea

City

Spurs

Liverpool

Everton

 

We've got probably the hardest run in, with Utd, City and Chelsea, as well as away to relegation-dogfighters Wigan. After us I'd say Spurs has the toughest, but even with their (until) tomorrow game in hand over City, I just can't see them gaining more points than City. Maybe it'll come down to when Spurs go to Eastlands, but I doubt it. City's hardest games til the end of the season are probably gonna be against us and Spurs.

 

As for overtaking Liverpool, they are two points ahead and can see them getting more points from Brum-Barcodes-Spurs(H) and Villa-Fulham(A), then we will get against Manu(A),Wigan(A),City(H),Brom(A),Chelsea(H). Even though we are on a good run, I wouldn't expect more than 9-11pts from 15, in fact I'd probably be happy with 10. That means Liverpool only need 8 to secure 6th.

 

Slim, chance maybe, but for me too slim, I voted impossible.

 

EDIT: as for the FA Cup: heart says Stoke, head says City.

Edited April 19, 2011 by wallwriter

[rubecula]

I went for impossible too. I can't see anyway we can get into Europe except on holiday.

 

Mind you my predictions are nearly always wrong too.

[c1982]

You haven't mentioned that there is some debate whether Birmingham will be allowed into Europe next season on financial grounds...

 

...and also the fair play route - only Fulham and Blackpool ahead of us!!!

[lilpyrokid951]

You haven't mentioned that there is some debate whether Birmingham will be allowed into Europe next season on financial grounds...

 

...and also the fair play route - only Fulham and Blackpool ahead of us!!!

 

tbh i wouldn't want to qualify via fair play. it would mean we'd have to start from the 1st qualifying round and our season would start in early july. not exactly good for such a small squad like ours to start the season a month earlier. remember aston villa 3 seasons ago when they did so well for most of the season and were looking like they could finish in the top 4? they started their season early that year since they qualified for europe via the intertoto cup and come the end of the season they were incredibly tired and ended up dropping from 3rd in the league to finishing in 6th behind us.

[Romey 1878]

With our slow starts to season we'd probably go out at that first qualifying round anyway .