johnh Posted May 17, 2017 Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 Just for the sake of argument some comments on what you wrote here. Indeed Merkel went as far as to say a treaty change is possible. Keep in mind that a treaty change has always implied more integration. So wrong to conclude she dismissed his proposals. In the last 20 years there have been 10(!) changes to the EU treaties of a constitutional nature. You confuse EU treaty changes with Free Trade Agreements. The latter take longer as parties are "adversaries" trying to get the best deal, whereas EU treaty changes are conluded amongst union members and reach agreement much easier. Schäuble is the German finance minister and indeed a bit of a hawk. He's over 70 years old and will be gone after next elections (september 2017). However, here's what he recently said to German press (Der Spiegel): - "financial transfers from richer to poorer states are necessary within the euro zone" - "you can't build a community of states of varying strenghts without a certain balance" - "a union can't exist if the stronger members don't vouch for the weaker ones" - "I consider Macron's criticism of the high German trade surplus to be justified, however it will decline in coming years" so there you go.. The Telegraph, keeping you informed On your first point, I was not confusing EU treaty changes with Free Trade Agreements, though after the ECJ ruling yesterday there will be little difference in the future, timing wise. (From now on, the Walloons will not be able to scupper a Trade Agreement.) It all depends on what the treaty change is. If it is against German interests, it will never happen. On your second point, actions speak louder than words and there is little sign that Germany will agree to any form of debt relief for poorer countries, ie Greece, where the latest rounds of austerity have just been introduced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holystove Posted May 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 On your first point, I was not confusing EU treaty changes with Free Trade Agreements, though after the ECJ ruling yesterday there will be little difference in the future, timing wise. (From now on, the Walloons will not be able to scupper a Trade Agreement.) It all depends on what the treaty change is. If it is against German interests, it will never happen. On your second point, actions speak louder than words and there is little sign that Germany will agree to any form of debt relief for poorer countries, ie Greece, where the latest rounds of austerity have just been introduced. Well on treaty changes, everyone has a veto. So I assume it will have to be in everyone's interests, not just Germany. Difference with the situation in Greece is that now it's countries that are net-contributor that are pushing for shared liabilities. Very different situation. I'm on the fence about what to do about Greece. The situation they are in is completely due to domestic policy. They dug a hole for themselves, and now need goodwill of their creditors to get out. However, their PM (Tsipras) is an idiot, their former finance minister (Varoufakis) is a complete moron, they have done little of what has been asked of them ... My boss is part of a task force that was sent by the EU Commission to audit the way the Greek finance department works. He came back completely shocked by the imcompetence of the Greek government. Syriza (the extreme left party, currently in power) is going to lose in the next election; the Greek liberal party is about 20% ahead in the polls, once they get into power and implement coherent policy, I'm sure the IMF, ECB and EC will talk about debt-restructuring. As of now, I sympathize with the people of Greece, but if they want to find the cause of their problems, look no further than previous and current government. Greece is actually a good argument to go along with Macron's proposals. If there had been for example a euro finance minister, Greece wouldn't have been able to dug as deep a hole before someone would have intervened. MikeO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnh Posted May 17, 2017 Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 Well on treaty changes, everyone has a veto. So I assume it will have to be in everyone's interests, not just Germany. Difference with the situation in Greece is that now it's countries that are net-contributor that are pushing for shared liabilities. Very different situation. I'm on the fence about what to do about Greece. The situation they are in is completely due to domestic policy. They dug a hole for themselves, and now need goodwill of their creditors to get out. However, their PM (Tsipras) is an idiot, their former finance minister (Varoufakis) is a complete moron, they have done little of what has been asked of them ... My boss is part of a task force that was sent by the EU Commission to audit the way the Greek finance department works. He came back completely shocked by the imcompetence of the Greek government. Syriza (the extreme left party, currently in power) is going to lose in the next election; the Greek liberal party is about 20% ahead in the polls, once they get into power and implement coherent policy, I'm sure the IMF, ECB and EC will talk about debt-restructuring. As of now, I sympathize with the people of Greece, but if they want to find the cause of their problems, look no further than previous and current government. Greece is actually a good argument to go along with Macron's proposals. If there had been for example a euro finance minister, Greece wouldn't have been able to dug as deep a hole before someone would have intervened. Yes, I agree with everything you say re Greece. The situation is that Greece should never have been let into the club. Greece fiddled the figures and the EU turned a blind eye. The reality is, they are in and if Macron's view of the EU is to prevail, then debt relief (not debt-restructuring) will have to happen. However, I still can't see Germany agreeing, it appears to be a red-line issue for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holystove Posted May 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/21/marine-le-pen-abandons-frexit-crusade-error/ Front National (Le Pen) abandons all plans to leave EU and euro, for next elections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 (edited) http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/the-sun-told-to-put-apology-to-jeremy-corbyn-on-front-page-a6782181.html I wonder how small the apology will be? (sorry wrong thread) Edited May 29, 2017 by pete0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holystove Posted June 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 Well then.. party of Macron projected to get 80% in French Parliament after yesterday's election to push through his agenda .. Notice the party of LePen will get between 1 and 5 seats (or less than 1% ! ). Anglo right wing media: - April 2017: Macron can't win - LePen will be president + frexit - May 2017: Macron won't get a majority in Parliament - lame-duck president - Juni 2017: .... ? is the nationalist anti-globalist wave that people were afraid of after Brexit and Trump dead? Matt, markjazzbassist and Chach 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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