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holystove

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  1. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Matt in Brexit...   
    First of all, 15m is nothing compared to tourists from EU27. No EU member state will begin to threaten the integrity of EU structure to placate a departing member.. especially in the all important field of tourism 😉
    Secondly, you are right it will become more expensive if Spain demands visas etc. but that won't put them at a disadvantage to other warm weather countries.  Brits will still come, just pay more.
    Finally, Brexit is the definition of putting idealogy before anything else, don't be surprised to find some EU member states might do the same. I think Spain will take Gibraltar instead of 15m Brits in a heartbeat. (which they might).
  2. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Matt in Brexit...   
    This is misunderstanding no-deal, Bailey.   
    "why would the EU not allow planes to fly?"  Because if the UK drops out with no-deal, UK airtravel will no longer be certified via EU agency ( there is no UK aviation agency) so no certification.  Which means no insurance company will issue insurance, which means no flights... Where is the EU bureaucrat in this?
    "why would the EU not deliver medicine?"  "why would the EU not deliver food?"  Because if the UK drops out with no-deal, there will no longer be fictionless trade. Which means delays at the borders and fresh food will perish on the roads.  Roads will literally get clogged due to no-deal, not because something the EU does.  Where is the EU bureaucrat in this?
    etc etc.   It might seem common sense to let this all continue, but it is no-deal-brexit that is standing in the way of this, not any EU politician.
    I don't think we'll get to the stage of no-deal because of the armageddon it would bring but first MPs need to be honest about this. I'm still counting on a transition period during which the UK can set up all its own agencies, streamline its border procedures, do an FTA with the EU to keep as much of current trade flowing as possible post-transtion, create a lasting solution for ROI-NI, etc.. so it can leave the EU in an orderly way.  
  3. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Chach in Brexit...   
    Most importantly people need to get out of the mindset of this MP.  I'm sure some on here believe no-deal will be bzsically status quo as well.. it will not.
    Stockpiling food, medicine and using army to keep the peace, are not project fear 2.0.  They are policy designed by pro-brexit ministers in the UK government.  Wake up.
  4. Upvote
    holystove reacted to Matt in Brexit...   
    We got our permits today!
  5. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Matt in Brexit...   
    Most importantly people need to get out of the mindset of this MP.  I'm sure some on here believe no-deal will be bzsically status quo as well.. it will not.
    Stockpiling food, medicine and using army to keep the peace, are not project fear 2.0.  They are policy designed by pro-brexit ministers in the UK government.  Wake up.
  6. Upvote
    holystove reacted to MikeO in Brexit...   
    Trying to put into words what a stupid, moronic, lose/lose situation we're now in but I don't have them. The country's  been screwed by a few "high profile" politicians trying to further their career while being sure they'd lose the vote so wouldn't have to deal with the consequences; when they won they all jumped ship.
    We are a laughing stock; I have more optimism about Everton than I about the UK, and that's bad.
  7. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from markjazzbassist in What Are You Watching?   
    Yes it is focused on the US but I assume processed meats, mercury in fish, etc. are the same everywhere.  I would love it if my wife was a nutritionist.  Food/healthy eating is the start of everything.
    Most eye-opening was the power of your farmers-lobby.  They have the agression of the NRA backed by the money of big Pharma; incredibly powerful.
  8. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Matt in Brexit...   
    I think a new General Election is more likely than a second referendum.
    Tory infighting is getting worse and might eventually reach breaking point, but more importantly it is way too late to pass the necessary legislation to hold a referendum before brexit-date.
    Having said that, I would bet on neither (2nd ref or GE) happening.  
     
  9. Upvote
    holystove reacted to markjazzbassist in What Are You Watching?   
    my wife went to school for nutrition, i've watched tons of food documentaries, but not that one........yet lol.  honestly in europe your food quality standards are so much higher than anywhere else in the world i don't think you have anything to worry about.  here in america is a different story.  
  10. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Chach in Brexit...   
    Because you can be bad but still not worst.  I think May is incompetent but I wouldn't hesitate a second to vote for her over Corbyn.
  11. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from pete0 in US Politics/Biden Presidency (Trump-free zone)   
    https://youtu.be/4k4pMTsa1Kw
     
    This might be the funniest thing I have ever seen.  From the impression of a Chinese person, to the N*****, and his bare buttocks while yelling USA.  😂🤣
  12. Upvote
    holystove reacted to Chach in Brexit...   
    While I think you're maybe giving the Tories too much credit for the current situation, I listened to a podcast with political scientist Ian Bremmer and he made some similar points with regards to some sections of the community agreeing/voting for populists because they think the current system is rigged against them and they think blowing it up is the best thing for them.
    I've linked just before for context, the Brexit talk starts about 31:30
     
     
  13. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Matt in Brexit...   
    I know The Telegraph wrote it is for in case of no-deal, but that is incorrect.  It was more accurately reported in The Independent (but I accept you will dispute that 😉).  Those 8.000 still imply participation in various EU agencies, per government policy.  To cope with no-deal you will need many more.  Ironically, there is no greater increase of red tape and bureaucracy in the history of mankind than Brexit.
    Ofcourse Rees-Mogg has just made the point the benefits of Brexit might not be clear for 50 years, so all this short to medium stuff is not relevant to true believers.  Meanwhile his company opened up a second branch in the EU to escape the economic effects of Brexit.  You see it is not illegal to lie to voters but it is illegal to lie to shareholders.
  14. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Bailey in Brexit...   
    There are no tariffs on services.  It's all about non-tarrif barriers.  The question is will a UK lawyer, musician, banker, etc still be recognized as such in the EU, and therefor able to sell their services?
    Problem in NI is that *any* border infrastructure is a problem.  Ireland has put this issue front and center, not the EU Commission.  As the EU heads of State have ordered the Commission not to accept any border infastructure, they have to play hardball until Ireland softens its stance.
    Why can't the UK and Ireland just keep the border open regardless what happens in negotiations?  Because that is illegal under WTO law (for both EU and UK).  The EU would loose its status as a Customs Union if it doesn't control its borders.
    There is, by the way, no border in the entire world that is frictionless, not between US-Canada, Norway-EU, Switzerland-EU,.. nowhere.  I would not underestimate the issue of the Irish Border as just a negotiating strategy. There is already increased tension and nothing has changed yet.
  15. Upvote
    holystove reacted to Haiku in Brexit...   
    Well, EU have a say over their outer borders. I'm from Bulgaria, we are bordering nation and EU commissions are inspecting our border control regularly, especially since the mass emigration started. We are getting paid for improving our border facilities with Turkey as far as I know.
  16. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Bailey in Brexit...   
    A Customs Union only covers goods, not services. 
    The UK is primarily a services-based economy (80%) and inside a EU-CU the UK would still be able to agree free trade agreements on services (as you plan to leave the Single Market).   
    Outside an EU-CU there is a hard border in Northern Ireland, EU-wide supply chaines would leave the UK, the Eurotunnel becomes a bottle-neck, etc.
    Then again, remaining inside the CU would not really be Brexit 😉
     
  17. Upvote
    holystove reacted to Matt in Brexit...   
    Well, I'll try and give a brief overview now whilst I pack for our vacation...
    I said before the vote even (I think) that it was going to be near impossible to leave completely without massive detrimental impact, simply because we are so integrated. But, lets look at some of the key points, with a mix of fact and opinion:
    1. Immigration - we already had complete and total control over immigration into the UK. We have an exception to the EU immigration rules, along with Denmark and Ireland - here's the proof. So, leaving the EU won't change a thing regarding immigration, it'll still be in our hands. As for illegal immigration, it's just that; illegal. That's not something the EU can be blamed for. In fact, we can blame May for that, as she was the main reason behind massive cuts and changes to border control staff and procedure as Home Secretary, undermining the ability of the departments to control immigration, illegal or otherwise. If you want someone/something to blame, you look at the companies/employers who choose the cheaper labour over local labour for their own profit and growth. There are ways to curb that within the UK, and still work with the EU's rules - I know this from experience after working and living in mainland Europe for 12 years now.  
    2. Trade - There are hundreds (at least, if not more) of treaties, and then contracts, to sever; not just with EU countries but also with countries outside of the EU that are intrinsically linked with the EU. If we simply cut them, what will replace them? That's why I say it's suicide for the country - there is no plan, no future deals being shared, etc. and won't be until we have the Brexit plan in place with the EU. It takes years and years to negotiate these treaties and contracts, and was never going to be possible even if we had a clear Brexit plan in place before the referendum in a 2 year time line. My humble, non-expert, opinion, was that it would take 10-15 years to get the basics in place, 20+ before we've got everything covered. Of course, in that time, the world will change in ways we can't imagine, and assumptions of being such a "big trading partner" that everyone else will suddenly just flock to do business with the UK is disillusion at best, simply because we'd be going into the unknown, both in carrying out a leave process and world developments. Meanwhile, the EU will continue to open new trade routes and deals with other countries and continue to expand without us. See the proposed new Japan deal announced in the last week or so as an example.
    3. Representation in the EU - that bag of dicktips Farage's speech about not knowing who the MEPs are isn'ttt all the EU's fault, it's an ignorance of the people and the failing of our own MPs and governments for not making it more transparent, on top of a ridiculously complicated parliamentary democratic system. The cynic in me thinks it's deliberately complicated to make it hard to understand for anyone who hasn't done a masters in politics. That said, there's no excuse nowadays to not know something; you simply have to take a bit of time and google. If  that's not for you and you want more information or influence, you contact your local MP and get them to push their party for change; whether that be transparency on the process, or dissatisfaction with the state of affairs. The political party then needs to take your input and put it into action (if there's enough support). However, all that is entrusting British politicians to not clusterfuck the whole thing, which is one of my biggest fears - without EU supervision, just imagine the chaos that would ensue if any of the political parties were left to their own devices.
    If there's something I've missed, or something you want me to answer, let me know and I'll get to it when I can, but I think I covered the 3 main drivers behind the referendum. For those who still wouldn't hesitate to leave, I'm interested to know why.
     
     
  18. Upvote
    holystove reacted to Matt in Brexit...   
    That would be suicide for the country, even if it was a simple as “just leave”. 
  19. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Bailey in US Politics/Biden Presidency (Trump-free zone)   
    It's really amazing how he can steer a conversation to make these people say exactly what he wants.  I'm sure if they look back at the video they won't believe it themselves.
  20. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Sibdane in 2018 World Cup   
    Well deserved for Belgium.  I'm biased, but I think they were the best team this WC, sadly not the smartest.
    Beating Brazil, England twice, .. not bad.
  21. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from markjazzbassist in 2018 World Cup   
    Well deserved for Belgium.  I'm biased, but I think they were the best team this WC, sadly not the smartest.
    Beating Brazil, England twice, .. not bad.
  22. Upvote
    holystove reacted to Mirallas in England   
    England should win, cause if not, despite reaching SF here's the list of teams that England could beat this WC:
     
    Panama Tunisia decapitated Columbia Sweden You need a bigger name somewhere in that, plus not leave the WC with 3 defeats.
  23. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from aaron in 2018 World Cup   
    Alli is the least likeable player in the Premier League, imo.
  24. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Bailey in 2018 World Cup   
    Alli is the least likeable player in the Premier League, imo.
  25. Upvote
    holystove got a reaction from Sibdane in 2018 World Cup   
    Alli is the least likeable player in the Premier League, imo.
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