holystove

This thread took a strange turn 

On 31/05/2020 at 14:34, johnh said:

But the French government can inject multi-millions into Renault?   Still, France and Germany are law's unto themselves in the EU and Germany's stance in this respect could signal the end of the euro and the end of the EU as we know it.

You can, under certain circumstances, ask for an exemption of state aid.  The EU commission will assess this and make a binding ruling.  In corona-times, each member state that has asked to save a certain part of their economy has gotten the exemption beause we are in unprecedented times.   Asking for a exemption on state-aid because you chose to leave the Single Market would not have gotten the green light from the Commission .

4 hours ago, johnh said:

I don't think companies like Nissan 'cross their fingers' on a deal of this scale.  I suspect that they have had numerous discussions with the EU, behind closed doors - which appears to be the way things get done in the EU.

I'm sorry John but that's not how any of this works.  If there is no deal between the EU and the UK that put tarriffs at 0% on cars , there won't be a 0% tarriff on cars.  

They only way to "avoid" these tarriffs is if the UK government promises to pay the 10% tarriff instead of Nissan.  Reportedly they got this promise from Theresa May in 2016 and I assume Nissan is still counting on that. (https://www.irishtimes.com/business/manufacturing/uk-letter-vowed-to-protect-nissan-from-brexit-fallout-1.3781568)

Coincidentally such 'State Aid' would be illegal as an EU member state.  So of course EU to UK, Nissan would still have to pay those tarriffs.  I don't know if this influenced the decision.

20 minutes ago, Palfy said:

Why would they get to build Renaults or why wouldn’t they be happy. 

Why it would piss off the EU (Commission? Member States?) if two Renault models are made in the UK?

3 minutes ago, Palfy said:

They may even get to build 2 Renault models as well, now that would piss the EU off if that were to happen. 

Why?

1 hour ago, TallPaul1878 said:

Nissan has a free trade agreement with the EU meaning that there is no need to maintain factories within Europe and can repatriate back to Japan as there will be no tariffs.

The UK may potentially have tariffs and so it is a sensible move to keep production in the UK, particularly as it is a large market for them.

70% of Nissan cars made in Sunderland are exported to the EU.  The UK market is way too small to sustain the plant.

My guess, Nissan is crossing their fingers for no tarriffs on cars between EU and UK on cars; doesnt look likely though.

13 hours ago, MikeO said:

If you look at deaths per head of population Belgium is "top" of the league with 82 deaths per 100k people, then Spain with 58 and us with 56, Italy 55, France 43 and the US 30; but if you look at it regionally in America you get New York up at 150. Even then there are different takes on how people come to their numbers ..

"Belgium, for instance, includes deaths where coronavirus was suspected of being present but was never confirmed with a test. Some US states record deaths this way, but not all."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52771783

We'll probably never know the real figures.

That's why excess deaths gives the clearest picture because in that case it doesn't matter if covid is on the death certificate.  Yesterday the FT published an article (free to read) based on official numbers of excess deaths.  https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

Hardest hit per capita in Europe :

1. Spain

2. UK

3. Italy

4. Belgium

5. The Netherlands

1 hour ago, TallPaul1878 said:

Thanks to the internet I found out about coronavirus in late November. I was getting video footage of Chinese government welding people into their apartments and using drones with thermal imaging to spy on citizens and detect their temperature. The news reporting nothing of this. Chinese citizens being turned away from hospitals as they were in a total state of collapse.

The mainstream media has not once put China to question. It dare not speak ill for fear of being cut off from the marketplace there. For that I will never forgive them.

3000 deaths in China my arse!

Perhaps because they weren't able to verify it.   On the internet you can go down a lot of rabbit holes and come out on the other side outraged that the mainstream media is not reporting it.

'Thanks to the internet I found out ..' 

14 hours ago, Palfy said:

My brother in law was strong enough to leave hospital today hopefully I will be able to speak with him in a couple of days. 
I want to know what he can remember and how he felt, or does that seem more morbid than just curious?

All the best to your brother in law.  

Not morbid to want to know how he experienced Corona but I get the impression the disease can hit you in many different forms, not all of which are experienced by everyone.  Some people are stuck with it for up to 7 (!!) weeks.  Some experience loss of taste and smell.  Not all get fevers.  etc etc

Like you I wanted to find out all I can from people I know who got COVID19, hoping that it would lessen my stress levels knowing what to expect, but it had the contrary effect.  All you can do is hope you go through it asymptomatically.  (given the number of colleagues who fell seriously ill, I'm kind of hoping I already had it).

https://www.france24.com/en/20200505-uk-is-europe-s-worst-hit-country-by-covid-19-as-death-toll-surpasses-32-000

UK overtakes Italy.  Thank God the NHS is not overrun like the Italian healthcare system was.

Stay safe.

This is great.  The US is turning into the EU.

https://twitter.com/PoliticusSarah/status/1253365449603104770?s=20

3 hours ago, Chach said:

I've posted this before have a listen, Ezra Klein is as inner city tree hugging left winger type as you can get. Founder of Vox which is also about as left wing as you can get. 

At 1:08 (if you don't want to listen to the whole thing) they talk about how the media got to where it's at now in response to Sean Carroll's idea that the Media is maybe the causal reason. You can literally hear him let go of the idea in real time as the facts are presented.

https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2020/01/27/81-ezra-klein-on-polarization-politics-and-identity/

Doesn't he make the point that even though the American audience polarized first, news media such as Fox News, but also the NYT on the left, tried to keep up by feeding into that and creating a 'feedback loop' for polarisation?  So if he doesn't think Fox News started the didvide, they are certainly reinforcing it?

Why is America more polarized than say Scandinavia, or the Netherlands, Belgium etc?  If every society is, or could be, equally polarized, an important factor in keeping that under control is not having 'extreme' news organisations reinforcing the divide, by for example not having a strong (neutral) public broadcaster (as most EU countries do) but having Fox News as your main source of information.

Interesting podcast.  WIll listen to more episodes.

On 21/04/2020 at 12:27, Chach said:

How is the irony of 5 people liking a post that in response to a post saying people seek out information to confirm their own political biases, states that a TV show made by liberals, based on a book by a liberal, for liberals about a prominent conservative with the express intention of enraging them is an accurate explanation of how politics got the way they are.

I mean, oh my fucking days. Where is the attempt at honesty and self awareness? IT'S A FUCKING TV SHOW.

On 20/04/2020 at 08:25, holystove said:

The show makes clear that the intention of Fox News was never to bring you the news.  It was to push a narrative, made to look like news.  Ailes didn't care whether or not something was true, it got aired as long as it hurt the democrats (liberals) or anyone he deemed un-American. 

<== about the TV show

On 20/04/2020 at 08:25, holystove said:

Fox News was, and is, not exploiting a divide that is already there in the American public, I think Fox is (partly) responsible for creating it.   Fox News triggers people who are scared and worried, and gives them an easy explanation and enemy.  Trump couldn't have happened without 25 years of Fox News preceding him.

<== what I think Fox News has done; no longer about the TV show.  And what (I assume) Matt tried to make clear in his response.

On 20/04/2020 at 08:25, holystove said:

Compare it to Germany.  Right now the AfD is a small party which tops out at 10-15%.  Now imagine they had their own propaganda channel, called it news, and made it the only source of information for a great number of Germans...

<== what a Fox-like channel could do in any western democracy

On 18/04/2020 at 16:55, MikeO said:

Think I'm going to read Catch-22 for the zillionth time.

If you love Catch-22, I would also recommend 'A confederacy of dunces' by John Kennedy Toole.  It's the only time I ever felt reading anything that came close to the brilliance of Catch-22.

8 hours ago, markjazzbassist said:

if you have ever watched the show "the newsroom" by aaron sorkin (wonderful show btw), it reminds me of the first scene.  the anchor (jeff bridges) is taking questions from the audience, the person says "can you say why america is the greatest country in the world?" he responds "we're not the greatest country in the world.........We’re 7th in literacy, 27th in math, 22nd in science, 49th in life expectancy, 178th in infant mortality, 3rd in median household income, number 4 in labor force and number 4 in exports. We lead the world in only three categories: number of incarcerated citizens per capita, number of adults who believe angels are real and defense spending, where we spend more than the next 26 countries combined, 25 of whom are allies."

 

that about sums it up for me

Another show that illustrates what is currently wrong with the US is 'The Loudest Voice' about Roger Ailes, and Fox News.  Just finished watching it yesterday.  Highly recommended.

Regarding corona there's a couple of interesting papers out already that show that Trump voters are less likely to believe there is a pandemic and don't adhere to social distancing.. http://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/social_distancing.pdf and https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3562796 

(Coincidentally, early UK data shows the same is true for the brexit-voters https://github.com/benwansell/COVID-activity/ )

Congratulations Mike! 

My father in law turned 60 two weeks ago, he's a widower and we're not allowed to visit so we were afraid it was going to be a lonely event for him.  However at 8pm people from all the houses near him came out and started applauding and cheering for him.  He couldn't stop talking about how great that was during our next 'Zoom' call.

Hope you have a great day.

1 hour ago, Matt said:

Only possible if you have the budget to have precautions planned, let alone resourced. 

Meanwhile, I saw there’s a report that the virus has gone from human to animal (a tiger apparently). If this has gotten into the wildlife, it’s not going away ever. 

Last week they found an infected cat in Belgium; got it from its owner.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/103003/coronavirus-belgian-woman-infected-her-cat/

9 hours ago, MikeO said:

Every night? That would piss me off to be honest; I'm in bed by that time on occasion so someone belting out opera would just piss me off more than I already am. We have the Thursday night 8:00pm applause going on and I've joined in with that, but some of the people in our road are doing an 11.00am "dance" session (to YMCA most recently) which is for me about as useful as a chocolate teapot. I'm not about to go out and complain and people are dealing with this the best way they can for them but honestly it's not something I need to hear.

I was thinking the same, my kids are in bed by then.

As the lockdown continues and starts working on peoples nerves more and more, stuff like that, which seems well intended, could really explode into a neighbourhood conflict.

11 hours ago, markjazzbassist said:

the national review is a barely credible far right publication, i am very surprised you are using them.  it's american far right which is about as anti-China as it gets, i'm not at all surprised they would have an article like that.

Did not know that about the national review.   There's other publications reporting the same though.  Point is, China's numbers are very unlikely.  Very poor hygiene, a cover up to start the epidemic, millions cooped together and still only 3000 deaths... Add to that China has lied about everything and anything negative happening within its borders in the past.   If you go by the numbers there's another country that is even more impressive than China, North Korea with 0 deaths.

To answer Palfy's point, just because their numbers might not be correct, doesn't mean you can't learn something from what you do know for certain about their approach.

3 hours ago, Palfy said:

If that was the case why aren’t we hearing these stories from the people of China, being leaked to journalists through the internet or by another medium. 
China has become a lot more transparent in the last 20 years it’s had to be to become a trading super power, I agree that they still let’s say keep there cards very close to there chests, but I don’t see how they can hide the number of deaths you are talking about from there own citizens which in turn wouldn’t be leaked to the west. 
That’s my view but I could easily be wrong, and the fact that we are not hearing this in the wider media I don’t feel I am. 

here's one source https://www.nationalreview.com/news/wuhan-residents-dismiss-official-coronavirus-death-toll-the-incinerators-have-been-working-around-the-clock/

here's how they covered up at the start https://www.ft.com/content/fa83463a-4737-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

China is anything but transparant. With new technology it's becoming even worse, as their control over the population (including leakers) increases.  Look up the 'social credit system' they're implementing, scary stuff.

7 hours ago, MikeO said:

 

Not entirely sure how China would gain by fabricating numbers.

I'm surprised by your comment.  Creating the illusion that your response is the best one to a crisis is page one in the authoritarian playbook.   

1) They want to keep Chinese people convinced there is no reason to question the leadership, that everything is under control.  That the communist regime is the only regime that had a good handle on the crisis.  Just look at all those capitalist countries with their thousands of deaths...

2) They want to project to the rest of the world how superior their model of government is.  They want countries to look at China as the leader of the world, and the first 'superpower' countries should look to for help and guidance.

It is easy to say in hindsight, but it's becoming clear China mishandled this crisis from the beginning.  This could be their Chernobyl, but as it is China we'll never know for sure how much they knew, when they knew it, and what they could (should) have done.

1 hour ago, Tonsta said:

You actually believe what the chinese say, was it a whistle blower, only way you get the truth from them. 

I agree, those Chinese numbers are very suspect. Whistleblower reports speakof 40.000+ deaths.  We'll never know.