holystove
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Posts posted by holystove
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On 19/01/2019 at 19:39, markjazzbassist said:
Yeah I was going to say she approves the prime minister and signs them into office or something doesn’t she? If she decides a not to because she can well that’s a lot of fucking power. They don’t exercise it per say but it’s not a dog and pony show like most euro Kings and queens who have no power.
The Belgian King (/Queen) also has a lot of powers. And I assume other continental Kings and Queens are not all as (constitutionally) powerless as you claim.
However, much like the British Queen, they are not supposed to use their powers. I remember when in the 80's Belgian parliament legalised abortion, the King refused to sign that particular law (without his signature no law can come into effect). After he coudn't be convinced to sign it, they just deposed him for a day.
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4 hours ago, Chach said:
"The threat from Brussels is that the EU will shrug its shoulders and allow a disorderly Brexit, with substantial disruption to trade, transport, and so forth. But it is much more likely that German business, along with the French and Dutch governments, would be up in arms against such a turn, and demand that the European Commission use its powers indefinitely to suspend any disruption in Europe’s ports and airports while meaningful negotiations begin for the first time since 2016."
This has been my long held suspicion, it can't and won't be one way disruption, it takes two to trade tango. Money talks and in the end bureaucracy will run a marathon. (I've been wrong before though :D)
Keen to hear from @holystove on the Norway plus option.
The only way to be a 100% sure this will turn out like Greece 2015 is to start taking Varoufakis' advice
How many times has the Brexit side said "any minute now, German car makers will intervene and force the EU to give us what we want". German car makers have consistently said the integrity of the Single Market is most important. Don't expect much from the "French and Dutch governments" either, as it is the member state governments that have decided the Commission should take a firm line.
Norway plus option is fine, the political declaration allows for such a thing to be negotiated. As I have said before however, Canada +++ Norway ++ or whatever else, all require the Withdrawal Agreement to be ratified. The Withdrawal Agreement is the legal basis for the transition period, during which Canada or Norway or.. will be negotiated.
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1 hour ago, MikeO said:
For the 27, just not for us.
I never backed Brexit wishing the UK harm. Hope everything works out.
1 hour ago, Chach said:And the rest of the world who want a solid EU to provide leadership in the void left by Trumpistan.
EU has been trying to set up a common foreign policy for 10 years.. Brexit helps, but countries like Hungary and Poland can still slow things down (be it not as succesfully as the UK).
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10 minutes ago, Chach said:
@holystove when its all done and dusted and some semblance of sanity has returned to the region do you think it's likely Brexit will be a net benefit for the rest of the EU, in that they'll be able to achieve things they couldn't with the UK still in there?
Yes that is my hope. It's why I backed Brexit.
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8 hours ago, Bailey said:
Anyone else find it amazing that there is such a thing as a no-deal Brexit?
You would think that we could agree on plenty of smaller things around the EU, starting from the base of no deal on trade / back stop etc. It would seem that we have been working from a deal down route rather than a no deal up, when we could have been agreeing tiers of transitional agreements even if the larger problems are still an issue.
Maybe they have and these will come into play if no-deal does loom and the no-deal aspect only refers to the customs element but it sounds like its all or nothing.
The EU regards the current deal as the basis for a negotiation. The current deal settles the citizens rights, the financial settlement and creates a back-stop to protect the Good-Friday-Agreement. It says nothing binding about whether the UK will end up with a Norway or Canada deal, or indeed no trade deal at all.
The EU will surely attach many, if not all, of what has already been agreed to any mini-deal. So a "managed" no-deal is an illusion, it is either this deal or no-deal.
The EU has published its no-deal notices recently and it shows a number of unilateral measures they will take to keep what is necessary for the EU in working order for a short periode of time, during which companies and member states can fully adjust to a no-deal reality.
Key word being unilateral.
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Up to 11 million now. Wish I had thought of it, this is an excellent scam (and not even illegal).
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53 minutes ago, markjazzbassist said:
the US budget runs out tomorrow. Trump wanted the congress to approve a spending bill that includes 5 billion for his border wall with mexico. democrats said no, even republicans said no and passed a spending bill with no border wall money. Trump now says he won't sign it, the government will shut down. Repubs are furious as most had already left for holiday vacation and will need to come back for further votes. The man is an idiot. Not even the repubs want the border wall.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/20/politics/donald-trump-shutdown-border-wall-funding/index.html
Alternative funding for the wall https://www.gofundme.com/TheTrumpWall
7.000.000 so far. What a country..
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Matt, you're in the clear. The UK and Switzerland have come to an agreement which covers both scenarios, withdrawal agreement or no deal, and it states there will be no change to the status of UK citizens in Switzerland or Swiss citizens in the UK.
https://www.ejpd.admin.ch/ejpd/en/home/aktuell/news/2018/2018-12-20.html
- markjazzbassist and Matt
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7 minutes ago, MikeO said:
All those calling for a second referendum just assume it will be Remain this time. What will they do if it is Leave again?
In the national interest MPs and the government should just revoke article 50. This is not a question for the people (take this thread as an example).
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This Australian journalist is also bored of brexit and has written an article about it.
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12 hours ago, Bailey said:
So what do we think is going to happen with the vote?
I can't see it getting through Parliament, and whilst amendments can now be tabled and voted upon, I don't see them getting through the EU27.
I am not sure another referendum is a good thing for the country but I don't know how else this mess will be resolved.
We could possibly see A50 delayed, a general election called but then both the Tories and Labour will be on leave platforms so unless every one votes Lib Dem, we will be back at it again in X amount of months time.
The parallels with Greece are uncanny, so if we take Greece 2015 as a guide it is likely that the UK will reject the deal it currently has negotiated only to have to accept a worse deal at the last moment in March/April 2019.
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14 hours ago, johnh said:
In the EU, past facts are not a guide to the future. The EU is changing all the time. I voted, back in the 1970's, to enter the European Common Market. I never had a vote on what the EU has become nor do I recall seeing a manifesto. Two things that can change facts from past events. If we have a second referendum and vote remain then we will almost certainly be required to enter the eurozone. The euro benefits one country, Germany, and most of the economic problems in the EU member states is down to the euro. The second is the EU army. How many billions will we have to fork out for this? Mentioning the EU army, if you can stand it, go onto Youtube and Google Farage v Clegg European army. It is cringworthy. A senior British politician (Clegg) Deputy Prime Minister and probably the most rabid Europhile in Parliament, rages against Farage, tells him that a European army is a 'fantasy'. Now, as a senior politician and a leading Europhile, you would expect Clegg to have his finger on the EU pulse, so he was either lying through his teeth or he hadn't a clue what was happening in Brussels. I don't think he was lying. As with most things that happen in the development of the EU, it all happens behind closed doors, decided by the unelected elite. A common complaint by remainers is that leavers didn't know what they were voting for. The same is true of remainers, in spades.
I understand you get most of your information from reading The Daily Telegraph. The Europe editor for The Telegraph, Peter Foster, is one of the best (informed) journalists out there; I cannot recommend enough that you read his articles.
For the record: if the UK remains, it will never have to join the EUR as it will remain on current terms with its opt-outs. If the UK rejoins at a later stage, technically there is an obligation to eventually adopt the EUR. However it is still a sovereign right for the member state to choose when to do this. Sweden for example meets all the EUR-criteria but chooses to keep its own currency. (by the way, a lot of economists claim UK would have benefited just as much from the EUR as Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, etc have).
As for the EU army.. there is currently more military cooperation between the UK and France than there is between EU member states. Why is there no outrage of an Anglo-Frankish army? Is there fear that Macron will draft English youth to fight his battles? It is so easy to stir up fear on this issue... EU military cooperation is very limited (coordinating purchases at an EU level, etc.) and subject to a veto from every member state.
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6 hours ago, Matt said:
This is only an opinion by the Advocate-General, doesn't mean the Court will follow it.
Thinking advisory means binding is what got the UK in this mess in the first place.
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19 minutes ago, Matt said:
Because nothing changes for the better. We lose what influence we had, we lose our EU citizenship for nothing other than a change of passport colour... can you tell me anything good about this deal that I’ve missed?
You are comparing this deal to Remain. Ofcourse it is worse than Remain.
I'm saying this deal is pretty much the best she could do. Brexiteers who now say, well if this is it, I'd rather remain are a bit dim if they were expecting something else.
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Curious to know why people think the deal is bad?
Also, whether or not Trump is in the White House has very little impact on the trade deal which will be available to the UK. Either you align with the US regulatory model or the EU regulatory model. The current deal choses the EU model for obvious reasons.
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8 hours ago, Chach said:
Unfortunately the referendum question was lacking in nuance, leave won and there is no option to remain. Remainers have to accept that.
I agree. Brexit has to go through.
To stop Brexit now would put the EU's most obstructionist Member-state back in the centre of the EU, but this time with an even more divided public opinion on Europe.
The best way to defeat populists is to put their idiotic ideas into effect and watch them fail. UK is very welcome to rejoin after March 29th 2019.
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2 hours ago, Matt said:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46198297
just read the tweets. I have no words. I’m finally dumbfounded.
I am amazed at how long Macron got away with calling Trump an idiot in public (at the UN, Rememberance day, ...). Seems Trump finally snapped; will be a huge boost for Macron in France.
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2 hours ago, Matt said:
Meanwhile, this just in:
Corbyn and his followers will vote against it, DUP will vote against it, Johnson and his followers will vote against it, Fox will resign because he doesn't have a job if UK is in Customs Union... only question that remains is if there will be a general election or a referendum on the deal?
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As soon as my kids are old enough to understand what happened, I will visit Flanders Fields with them. Incredibly important to keep remembering and honouring those that lost their lives, even though it is now 100 years ago.
I read somewhere that it is 75 years now since an army last crossed the Rhine, blowing away second longest period which was 3 months.
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Brexit...
in Off Topic Discussion
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Not really an EU competence that, John, .. forcing countries to organize referendums; let alone "re-run" them.
Is this UK 'democracy'? https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46971390 (Mogg proposes the Queen (!) shuts down Parliament to protect brexit)
.. Though if you brought that to this forum, I don't know who would play the Queen.