holystove

4 hours ago, Chach said:

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There was no option to vote for "leave with a good deal" so you have to take that vote as a "leave come what may". How can the parliament then legislate to stop that happening and then accuse others of being undemocratic?

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I very much disagree with this.  Even Leave.EU, Farage's outfit, stated in their official plan (sadly now deleted from their website but still available elsewhere on the internet) the UK would leave the political institutions after 2 years, and the economic partnership only after 10.  There is noone, literally noone, that talked about no-deal during the campaign.  Raab tried to claim he did, but all factcheckers showed he didn't and even Gove called him out on it.  No-deal is the legal default, but based on the referendum result it cannot be the political (or economic) default.

4 hours ago, Chach said:

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I am going to advocate for the devil and offer up a alternative position for the decision to suspend parliament at such a critical time

Boris knows the Europeans are shitting their pants at the prospect of a no deal Brexit, the leaders of the opposition and minor parties are actively reassuring the Europeans that they will legislate to stop that happening, Boris is giving himself some time to bully the Europeans into making concessions that the parliament will vote for. [respond to this bit I'm just putting the next bit in for the lols]

Deep down you now this might work and now you are shitting your pants Boris is going to save the day and the imminent destruction of the Tory party you have dreamed of will be averted. 

Britain's economy is far more exposed to Brexit risks than the rest of Europe. Maybe the Irish are shitting themselves but even they will not experience as much disruption as the UK; when you go east of Germany, Brexit barely registers.  The FT put it very clearly two days ago: "Brexiter's suggestions that the EU will capitulate because they dare not risk a no-deal rupture misunderstands the fundamental weakness of threats made with a gun pointed at your feet". 

When the EU adopts more democratic practices and becomes more State-like, eurosceptics balk and say they only want a Common Market.  When the EU is run like an international organisation, and everything gets decided by the Member States, eurosceptics say it is not democratic enough.   

The debate has become silly as noone will convince anyone of anything anymore; choose your facts, twist them and make your case.   However, to his credit, Johnson has finally ended the debate which is more democratic, the EU or the UK.  It's not the one where a party-appointed leader can suspend Parliament to prevent it having a say on his interpretation of the "will of the people".  Ironically, behaviour like that is grounds for getting your voting rights suspended in the EU council.

Well.  This blew up a bit in a way not intended; in essence I was only stating the official UK policy regarding goods (see also why Canada is refusing to roll-over its EU trade agreement for the UK (clue: because the UK will allow its market to be flooded with goods)).  My post might have been a little over-aggressive, although the Marmite thing was meant as a joke (see the smiley).

To be clear:

- I like the UK

- I like the EU

- no-deal Brexit is a disaster for both.  

As Mike (who is correct about my past) indicated I used to back Leave because I was disgusted by the Cameron deal.  I also believed there to be political gain in it for the EU as the UK was a very negative member, while logically the UK would stay in the economic partnership.  As Brexit apparently now means no-deal, I am totally against it and I hope the UK stays. 

On 21/08/2019 at 14:37, johnh said:

Well we only need EU goods until we source them from new trade deals. With some EU countries on the verge of recession, eg Germany, Italy.  any disruption to their trade will concentrate minds -  in member states if not in Brussels.  I don't think the EU's financial centre is going to make many waves, particularly when several EU banks are in danger of folding, particularly Deutche (sp) Bank, which is already on life-support.

On your second point, you obviously don't understand 'irony'. 

I think when, over your all-Marmite Christmas dinner, you finally understand the difference between the disruption of leaving a unified market and the marginal benefit of an FTA, you'll find that, in fact, irony is dead. 

19 hours ago, Palfy said:

All though I voted remain and still wish too please do not under estimate the British resolve, if we have to dig in and face a period of hardship we will, so please don’t think for one moment we will allow your goods to come flooding in whilst you hold ours up. 

Through history we have proven to be a nation with a will to fight and defend our liberties, being an island as made us more stronger, these are the qualities that a lot of main land Europeans don’t possess, so in my view if you implement what you have said the EU citizens would not be prepared  to put up with a trade war with us if it meant their financial position deteriorated, where as you will find we would if it wasn’t an even playing field. 

So please don’t harbour the view that we need you more than you need us because you would be highly mistaken, and personally I’m ready for the stand off if it happens and we will suffer, but the Germans will suffer the most and if they suffer you all suffer. 

And one good thing for me is that French will struggle and we all know that if French citizens face any form of hardship they take to the streets, but on a positive note we will hopefully see a huge decline in terrible French cars on our roads

What the hell are you talking about Palfy?  I point out that it is in the economic intrest of the UK to keep its borders open to goods which it doesn't produce (as Johnson has said), in the same way the EU will keep its market accessible to UK services that the EU can't provide itself, and you set off on this rant about UK Blitzkrieg spirit stating 'facts' that don't make any sense whatsover.   It's a true mark of British exceptionalism that being treated as any other third country by the EU is interpreted as an act of war. 

This is great 

7 hours ago, johnh said:

Just a thought.  If all the products supplied by the EU are delayed then their payments will be delayed.   If the delay causes perishable products to go past their sell-by date, then they wont get paid at all.  Probably wont bother Brussels but I think it will bother member states.

UK needs EU goods, so can't afford to stop them at border. EU products will pass unchecked so delays should be minimal.  Goods coming the other way, into the EU, however will be stopped at the border. 

On services it's the other way around.  EU needs the UK services industry (banking).  Even in the event of no-deal, UK service providers can keep servicing the EU until Frankfurt/Paris/Dublin/.. are ready to take over the London-role of being the financial centre of the EU.

2 hours ago, johnh said:

Just an example as to why it wont last very long.  Also, we know that the kid's will take priority.  I don't mind going on a diet for a couple of months.

We've come a long way from 'we hold all the cards' , 'sunlit uplands', ...   Is this what you voted for?  Is this what anybody voted for?

3 hours ago, Palfy said:

Johnstone won’t get Brexit delivered on the 31st of any month he won’t get the backing of MPs and will be forced to hold a general election, and hand over the reins for another leader preferably not a Tory to tell the country that article 50 has been retracted. 

Varoufakis, the sequel.

On 20/07/2019 at 22:03, MikeO said:

Guessing you have the same suspicions about Alaphilippe about now; never before finished higher than 33rd and at 27 only been deemed worthy of two other Grand Tour starts (41st & 68th) but looking very likely to win this year. That's not suspicious it's miraculous, but they've not been far from Lourdes in the past couple of days so that would maybe explain it.

Well, no.  

Alaphilippe is much younger than Thomas. He has been very good in the classics (especially the ones with steep climbs).  He doesn't dominate the TdF (see yesterday's stage) in the same way Thomas did last year, even though competition seems to be weaker.

I'm not stating as fact Thomas did anything wrong last year, I'm just saying it was very surprising and met with scepticism from a lot of journalists and cycling insiders.  What Alaphilippe is doing this year is much more within the range of the possible.

Mistakingly citing a UK rule as your crowning example of EU red-tape and then literally waving a dead fish in the air to rally braying supporters into a patriotic frenzy of outrage is a great early look into what a Boris Johnson premiership will look like.

..

Were there no bendy bananas available?

On 05/07/2019 at 15:39, johnh said:

As usual, all the key decisions in the EU are made by the unelected elite, behind closed doors. Even the EU Parliament have to sit and watch.

1/ Leaders of government of all EU member states propose the new Commission president.  Why would you call them unelected?

2/ The EU Parliament has to approve the entire Commission.  This is not a given.

I understand Matt not wanting to argue, because it is sometimes about point of view if you want to describe something as democratic or not.   But to call leaders of government (including your own PM) 'unelected elite' is baffling.

14 hours ago, Palfy said:

I’m sure there sort it out I expect most of the EU higher Archie have Swiss bank accounts to worry about, so they won’t be making to much noise just in case  

Swiss banking secrecy was lifted in 2018 under pressure from EU and the OECD.  

Current discussion is about something else (streamlining the EU - Switzerland relationship from some 120 agreements into one treaty).

this is insane

Survey of Tory members: 

The one-nation-tory is dead.   It is now the destroy-the-union-for-a-unicorn party.

22 hours ago, MikeO said:

Real man of the people Boris.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48577579

How can he, "use money currently set aside for a no-deal Brexit to raise the 40% tax rate threshold to £80,000" if we have a no-deal Brexit?

He's not saying this to win a general election though.   He's trying to convince the 124,000 conservative party members who will decide the future of the UK in choosing the next PM.

On 07/06/2019 at 17:40, pete0 said:

Be ironic if the European courts overrule the decision. (assuming that you can take this sort of issue to the EU courts) 

Not something you can take to the European Court of Justice.

16 hours ago, MikeO said:

I'm still at a bit of a loss to understand how the turn-out (both sides) was so low given the high profile of the debate in the UK. I thought it'd be much higher, here in Greekland it was 58.7% which puts us to shame as a nation really; single biggest decision with screaming headlines (referendum aside) in decades and only 37% of people could be arsed to vote, pretty dismal and depressing that.

Greece has compulsory voting.  58.7% shows the respect the Greeks have for the law 

18 hours ago, MikeO said:

Points taken, clusterfuck whatever happens; I'm at a complete loss to see a decent way forward. Right wing extremism on the rise in Europe and globally as well as Mr Farage, I despair for our future; lessons of history are being forgotten.....even the Jewish community in Germany are being warned against wearing the kippah in public due to the rise of anti-semitism. In Germany, think about it, so afraid by the way the world is going.

"LePen won in 2014 with 24.4%. She’s now on 23.3. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders - an absolutely key figure in the Euro alt-right - was annihilated, losing all 4 of his MEPs. In Greece, Golden Dawn have dropped from 9.4% to 4.9%. In Austria the FPO from 20% to 17%, in turmoil over financial scandal, and out of gov’t. In Germany the AfD barely moved the dial, adding 1 MEP, while the Greens came second.  In Spain far-right VOX dropped more than 4% since the GE *only a month ago*. In Denmark the DPL has gone from winning in 2014 with 25%, down to 10%. We must be realistic, but also optimistic and positive. Despair is de-energising and, in this case, utterly misplaced. The truth is people are politically engaged and pro-European parties are rallying brilliantly, from a very desperate base."

7 hours ago, StevO said:

https://twitter.com/i/events/1131623021087584256

this kind of thing only adds to my frustrations with it. 

Thousands of votes..  

Hopefully just incompetence and not intentional, but really bad either way.

10 hours ago, StevO said:

I’ve got to be honest, I don’t even know what tomorrow’s vote is for or what it’s about. 

All the junk that came through my letterbox has gone in the bin. I’m sick of all of it. 

I’ll listen to any advice or information though. 

If you want to leave the EU with a deal as soon as possible : vote conservative

If you want to leave the EU but stay in all the economic partnerships (without a say) : vote labour

If you want to stop brexit : vote LibDem, Green, PC, SNP or CHUK

If you think your country needs a very hard reset with years of (economic, political, ..) turmoil : vote brexit party

If you are a white supremacist : vote UKIP   (I am not saying 2014 UKIP was this extreme, but 2019 UKIP definitely is)

That's how I see it at least.

2 hours ago, Romey 1878 said:

How is he supposed to do that when the only ones that can create the Night King are all dead?

12 hours ago, MikeO said:

But it appears that he didn't go back to the Watch, why else would they make such a big thing of him going north of the wall and the gate closing behind him?

Some speculation he's off to become the new Night's King.  After all he's already 'undead'

7 minutes ago, MikeO said:

Really hope they identify who did it and make sure they never get to work in the industry again.

I am sorry for spreading it; never expected it to be true. Though I'm glad I was prepared for that shit ending.

Predictions for final episode?

I'd go with Dani dead, Jon dead and King Gendry. Tyrion survives.

(!!!! Spoiler !!!

Apparently there's a thread on reddit where people who worked on the show say Jon kills Dani, gives himself up to the Unsullied, ends up at the wall again -  Tyrion gets tried for treason but survives - Bran becomes King with Bronn, Davos, and Tyrion as hand - Drogon flies off with dead Dani never to be seen again - Samwell wants democratic elections but gets laughed at 

)

some of that seems really implausible to me.. the wall is breached, there is no night king, so why would there be a night's watch?   .. why would the three eyed raven be interested in being king?

This is a great account for some behind the scenes stuff and interesting insights.  Run by actor who plays NK it seems.  https://twitter.com/Vladimir_furdik

3 hours ago, Palfy said:

The road to remain is getting closer, and like I’ve said Macron will do as he is told. 

Now I know people don’t like gloating and neither do I but I have to say when I was saying this is what would happen sometime ago people jumped all over me backing Holystove because he couldn’t possibly be wrong with his EU legal credentials. 

Listen to the working class there a lot wiser than given credit for. 

I just said I can see the sense in Macrons position.  Now the UK gets another six months to decide whether to ratify the deal or revoke..