holystove

22 hours ago, markjazzbassist said:

https://www.npr.org/2018/08/29/642851801/french-british-boats-clash-in-english-channel-over-scallop-catches

Harvesting scallops using industrial-scale scraping off the Normandie coast, under the noses of French fishermen abiding by a conservation policy... I'm with the French on this one.

I wonder how this is being reported in the UK as the article Mike posted shows how differently UK and Iceland media portrayed the Cod Wars and the effect it had on sustaining the conflict.

1 hour ago, johnh said:

At the time, I thought murderer was a lot strong.  However, I am confused by your use of the terms 'racist' and 'bigot'.  He can't have been racist, making his home in a foreign country (Malaysia) and marrying a Malaysian lady.  Also, I think  you are confusing bigotry with snobbery.  I agree that he sometimes came across as guilty of the latter.

You are ofcourse right on 'murderer' being over the top and indeed he objected to immigrants of all races.  Troubling you read his bigoted posts as mere snobbery though.  He's the only person I ever complained about to a Mod.

But Matt is right, this is not for this thread.

On 24/08/2018 at 21:49, pete0 said:

I'm still waiting for the knock on the door. 

Far as I remember he was unhappy that I said voting Conservative knowing they will cut the NHS funding and more people will needlessly die puts blood on your hands. 

I remember he got angry when you called him a murderer for supporting Tory/austerity policy and demanded an apology.

Murderer was a little sttong, but he was a racist and a bigot.

I'll be a member for 10 years on December 22.  Funnily enough, my "mental image" of all the ones that have been here for all that time hasn't changed at all.

I wonder what happened to Ian (IanC?), the Irish guy; he made a lot of good posts.

3 hours ago, Matt said:

Why would the thief be scared if he knows everyone will ignore it?

He's already on edge because he's doing something illegal, adding 100+ decibels creates a sensory overload.  Same reason a lot of alarms trigger lights to flash on and off inside a house.

Thief gets confused and runs.

At least, that's the theory.

14 hours ago, MikeO said:

Three times tonight my car alarm has gone off; few minutes ago it went off again so I got in and started it up to try and find the problem. Cause was a moth getting in somehow, swatted the blighter at the third attempt, car alarms are useless; nobody ever takes a blind bit of notice of them anyway.

My alarm guy said the main purpose of an alarm is to scare away the thief rather than call attention from other people.  I asked him because the siren I have inside my house produces twice as many decibels as the one on the outside. 

Not sure I want this to happen.  Another Russian billionaire who made his money in a shady way, and who in current climate could be forced to leave the West/UK (see Abramovich), taking bulk of his money with him.

Moshiri money is good enough for me.

42 minutes ago, Palfy said:

Thing is John Germany will drive this and they don’t care that Spain and Portugal rely on tourism, ask the Greeks they ruined their economy and a lot of tourists kept away. 

As you are a "remainer" this post is exactly why I (and many more on the continent) were backing brexit.

47 minutes ago, Bailey said:

Dont get me wrong, I understand it, I know its difficult and there are lots of hurdles. The EU bureaucrat is stopping the UK enjoying the same benefits outside of the EU despite having the same regulation (in travel). 

I get the whole cake and eat it scenario comes into play but its not like the UK becomes a 3rd world country overnight. It mutually beneficial areas, such as travel, it makes more sense to agree to similar regulations as the ones we have now. 

Whether that is the EU or us I dont know but as far as I see, there is little stopping an agreement.

Well that is why the EU has agreed a transition period to sort most of that. 

The scenario we are talking about now is no-deal, which means no transition.  In order to avoid no-deal only 3 things are necessary:

1/ financial settlement (UK accepts liabilities it signed up to as a member).  2/ agreement on rights of EU citizens in UK and UK migrants in EU27.  3/ Solution on the Irish border.

All this future relationship stuff (customs union, single market, FTA in goods, ECJ, ...) is irrelevant to an orderly exit right now because it will only come into effect after the transition period.  However as the UK doesnt want to accept the EU27 proposal for the Irish backstop and they think the financial settlement is their best card, they want to decide the future relationship now.  If the UK would just sign the Withdrawal Treaty as it is written now, instead of in March 2019, there would be a lot less drama.

1 hour ago, johnh said:

I have been reading some of the posts in this vein.  I can't decide if its false modesty, pride or ignorance but a key reason for the stupid, moronic, lose/lose situation we are now in is that 'remoaners' have obstructed Brexit from the word go.  Not mention by any of the remainers.  Leavers complain about Barnier being intransigent and bullying but he comes a poor second to remainers.  The whole Brexit negotiations have been taken over by remainers but Barnier is going to overplay his hand and a 'walk-away' outcome is on the cards.

This critique would only be credible if there was some plan for Brexit that leavers came up with and that is being blocked by 'remoaners'. 

1 hour ago, johnh said:

I have posted this before. So  how are Spain going to react to no holidaymakers/tourists arriving next year?   Over 15m from the UK this year.  Holystove, you really need to take account of the real world.

First of all, 15m is nothing compared to tourists from EU27. No EU member state will begin to threaten the integrity of EU structure to placate a departing member.. especially in the all important field of tourism

Secondly, you are right it will become more expensive if Spain demands visas etc. but that won't put them at a disadvantage to other warm weather countries.  Brits will still come, just pay more.

Finally, Brexit is the definition of putting idealogy before anything else, don't be surprised to find some EU member states might do the same. I think Spain will take Gibraltar instead of 15m Brits in a heartbeat. (which they might).

2 hours ago, Bailey said:

It does show how pathetic this whole situation is, from both sides. 

Even the contemplation that the things being prepared for shows how ridiculous both the EU and UK govt are. UK MPs here would be prepared to risk the people they are there to represent and the EU bureaucrats are prepared to allow this to happen to a fellow European country where they have millions of their own citizens residing.

I would love to know how many times these people actually sit down to discuss Brexit. I get the impression that bith sodes have civil servants squirrelling away to produce a report/offer before it gets sent to the other side who do the same like they are opponents and not friends seeking a new agreement. Both sides are guilty of using the media to issue their threats which is again pathetic. They should be sat around a table every day until it has been resolved, or a stalemate reached.

 

This is misunderstanding no-deal, Bailey.   

"why would the EU not allow planes to fly?"  Because if the UK drops out with no-deal, UK airtravel will no longer be certified via EU agency ( there is no UK aviation agency) so no certification.  Which means no insurance company will issue insurance, which means no flights... Where is the EU bureaucrat in this?

"why would the EU not deliver medicine?"  "why would the EU not deliver food?"  Because if the UK drops out with no-deal, there will no longer be fictionless trade. Which means delays at the borders and fresh food will perish on the roads.  Roads will literally get clogged due to no-deal, not because something the EU does.  Where is the EU bureaucrat in this?

etc etc.   It might seem common sense to let this all continue, but it is no-deal-brexit that is standing in the way of this, not any EU politician.

I don't think we'll get to the stage of no-deal because of the armageddon it would bring but first MPs need to be honest about this. I'm still counting on a transition period during which the UK can set up all its own agencies, streamline its border procedures, do an FTA with the EU to keep as much of current trade flowing as possible post-transtion, create a lasting solution for ROI-NI, etc.. so it can leave the EU in an orderly way.  

Most importantly people need to get out of the mindset of this MP.  I'm sure some on here believe no-deal will be bzsically status quo as well.. it will not.

Stockpiling food, medicine and using army to keep the peace, are not project fear 2.0.  They are policy designed by pro-brexit ministers in the UK government.  Wake up.

On 28/07/2018 at 18:12, MikeO said:

@holystove so now we have a non-asthmatic Brit winning the TdF, how do you explain that?

Brilliant ride Geraint, top bloke as well; as was Froome for not having a hissy fit when his Sky number one status was removed, glad he got the podium place back today. Six wins in seven years after none in the previous history of the event is pretty astounding.

He did very well; it was impressive how in the last kilometre of each mountain stage he managed to escape the group of favourites and gain another couple of seconds.  I enjoyed this years' TdF, especially the short but incredibly tough mountain stage in the last week was a good idea I hope they bring back every year.

To show the doubts around Sky and cycling, this op-ed ran in Flanders biggests newspaper last weekend: "32 year old Sky rider who previously had never finished better than 15th in Tour de France, Giro or Vuelta dominates this years' Tour de France."  I agree with the author that it is somewhat odd but I assume if he isn'tt riding clean, Sky would give the same "stuff" to Froome and he didn't do that well this year so whatever it possibly is, it's not that great.

UK commentariat predicting the end of the EUR every other year is one of my favourite things.

To be honest, I think it more likely with a no-deal-brexit decimating the value of sterling, the UK using the EUR bottom up rather than the EUR to fail. Sort of like Kosovo and Montenegro.

45 minutes ago, MikeO said:

Got that from this.

I think a new General Election is more likely than a second referendum.

Tory infighting is getting worse and might eventually reach breaking point, but more importantly it is way too late to pass the necessary legislation to hold a referendum before brexit-date.

Having said that, I would bet on neither (2nd ref or GE) happening.  

1 hour ago, markjazzbassist said:

my wife went to school for nutrition, i've watched tons of food documentaries, but not that one........yet lol.  honestly in europe your food quality standards are so much higher than anywhere else in the world i don't think you have anything to worry about.  here in america is a different story.  

Yes it is focused on the US but I assume processed meats, mercury in fish, etc. are the same everywhere.  I would love it if my wife was a nutritionist.  Food/healthy eating is the start of everything.

Most eye-opening was the power of your farmers-lobby.  They have the agression of the NRA backed by the money of big Pharma; incredibly powerful.

"What the health" on Netflix.   

My wife wants our family to eat vegan after having seen it.  I'm semi-convinced.  Anyone else seen this?

https://youtu.be/4k4pMTsa1Kw

This might be the funniest thing I have ever seen.  From the impression of a Chinese person, to the N*****, and his bare buttocks while yelling USA. 

nominated for FIFA manager of the year, alongside likes of Guardiola.

1 hour ago, Newty82 said:

Can I ask a genuine question...

I try my best not to be too left or too right, so I don't have any particular favoured party. Rather I've voted in the past based on what I feel is right at that time.

So why is it that the Tories are so bad for the UK? And if they are so bad, why have they had more time governing the UK than any other party?

Because you can be bad but still not worst.  I think May is incompetent but I wouldn't hesitate a second to vote for her over Corbyn.

19 minutes ago, johnh said:

They would nearly fill Goodsion Park though.    No, the 8,000 civil servants are to prepare for a hard Brexit.

I know The Telegraph wrote it is for in case of no-deal, but that is incorrect.  It was more accurately reported in The Independent (but I accept you will dispute that ).  Those 8.000 still imply participation in various EU agencies, per government policy.  To cope with no-deal you will need many more.  Ironically, there is no greater increase of red tape and bureaucracy in the history of mankind than Brexit.

Ofcourse Rees-Mogg has just made the point the benefits of Brexit might not be clear for 50 years, so all this short to medium stuff is not relevant to true believers.  Meanwhile his company opened up a second branch in the EU to escape the economic effects of Brexit.  You see it is not illegal to lie to voters but it is illegal to lie to shareholders.

2 hours ago, johnh said:

Reminds me of when I voted for entry into the Common Market.  I didn't know that I would be voting for the bureaucratic monstrosity that it has become.

There are 32.000 eurocrats to regulate the entire EU. To prepare for a soft-ish Brexit the UK alone is already hiring 8.000 civil servants.

19 hours ago, Bailey said:

Quite right, not sure why I even typed services! 

Is there any tariff/control over services? I would presume it would just be regulation and then the freedom of services would act as a bartering tool alongside freedom of movement and custom depending on what is being negotiated.

I am still not having this NI/UK hard border, its just a prime example of the EU playing hard ball. 

There are no tariffs on services.  It's all about non-tarrif barriers.  The question is will a UK lawyer, musician, banker, etc still be recognized as such in the EU, and therefor able to sell their services?

Problem in NI is that *any* border infrastructure is a problem.  Ireland has put this issue front and center, not the EU Commission.  As the EU heads of State have ordered the Commission not to accept any border infastructure, they have to play hardball until Ireland softens its stance.

Why can't the UK and Ireland just keep the border open regardless what happens in negotiations?  Because that is illegal under WTO law (for both EU and UK).  The EU would loose its status as a Customs Union if it doesn't control its borders.

There is, by the way, no border in the entire world that is frictionless, not between US-Canada, Norway-EU, Switzerland-EU,.. nowhere.  I would not underestimate the issue of the Irish Border as just a negotiating strategy. There is already increased tension and nothing has changed yet.

36 minutes ago, Bailey said:

Being in the Customs Union would be the worst case scenario regarding trade in my opinion. 

Either full free trade or no deal on the subject. CU means we have no control and no say over what agreements the EU sign us into. If the country they are trading with dont want to reach a seperate agreement with us, they will have access to our markets (via the EU) but we wont have full access to theirs (for goods and services on top of the EU arrangement). If we do try and reach an agreement with the other country on our own, we wont be able to increase/lower tariffs as they will have been set by the EU deal. The EU wont care about our interests in any deal they arrange.

Obviously being in the CU means we dont have to change anything logistically whereas being out of it will create a headache, but again, this is a headache they should have been planning for already.

A Customs Union only covers goods, not services. 

The UK is primarily a services-based economy (80%) and inside a EU-CU the UK would still be able to agree free trade agreements on services (as you plan to leave the Single Market).   

Outside an EU-CU there is a hard border in Northern Ireland, EU-wide supply chaines would leave the UK, the Eurotunnel becomes a bottle-neck, etc.

Then again, remaining inside the CU would not really be Brexit