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Halfway mark - next 7


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At the beginning of the season, it was commonly said that Everton's first 10 matches were very challenging, so that if the Toffees could survive through the Arsenal match, they would the have a run of 9 matches to move up the table.

 

I'd guess that most Everton fans saw Sunderland as a must-win, and we're delighted with the result, even while acknowledging that 6-4 might have been a more accurate scoreline. Then, I'd guess most would have seen the away to WHam as on paper the most challenging of our Nov-Dec fixtures. Taking a point was hardly a poor result.

 

So, are we now optimistic about our prospects for the next 7? Sitting on 17, how many points do we need at halfway mark to stay competitive for top 4 at season's end?

 

Some recent history: For last ten EPL seasons, the mean number of points for #4 is 71.2, the median is 70. To be "on track" for 70, we need to get to 35, which means we'd need 18 points from our next 7.

 

Looking at the fixtures, yes, we could conceivably take anywhere from 17-21 points. Absent more injuries among our internationals this coming weekend, we should have a healthy squad except for Jagielka.

 

For me, 13-14 points won't really suffice; and 9-10, forget it. If we have aspirations for 4th, we need 17-18 points from our next 7. Is that expecting too much?

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At the beginning of the season, it was commonly said that Everton's first 10 matches were very challenging, so that if the Toffees could survive through the Arsenal match, they would the have a run of 9 matches to move up the table.

 

I'd guess that most Everton fans saw Sunderland as a must-win, and we're delighted with the result, even while acknowledging that 6-4 might have been a more accurate scoreline. Then, I'd guess most would have seen the away to WHam as on paper the most challenging of our Nov-Dec fixtures. Taking a point was hardly a poor result.

 

So, are we now optimistic about our prospects for the next 7? Sitting on 17, how many points do we need at halfway mark to stay competitive for top 4 at season's end?

 

Some recent history: For last ten EPL seasons, the mean number of points for #4 is 71.2, the median is 70. To be "on track" for 70, we need to get to 35, which means we'd need 18 points from our next 7.

 

Looking at the fixtures, yes, we could conceivably take anywhere from 17-21 points. Absent more injuries among our internationals this coming weekend, we should have a healthy squad except for Jagielka.

 

For me, 13-14 points won't really suffice; and 9-10, forget it. If we have aspirations for 4th, we need 17-18 points from our next 7. Is that expecting too much?

 

I think it is, we won't get that many I don't think; I'd go thirteen. We'd still be in touch and I think with the way the season is going (strange results/unlikely teams towards the top) it might take less than seventy points to get top four anyway.

 

We'd need a strong finish though and some results against the "big" boys like we did two years back.

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I'll go into each individual game expecting us to win it, but it's not going to happen. I'd happily throw the 'boro game for 19/21 league points.

 

i hear you. but i honestly believe those matches are all winnable and should be win barring palace and leicester who both are solid this year. the rest are minnows and we should win, but being everton we'll draw a bunch lose some and then beat man city and arsenal after that. FFS we need consistency, the reason the best teams stay top is they consistently beat the midtable and lower sides regardless of home or away.

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I agree that all the games look winnable right now. The problem is that Everton just have not had a run of consistently high level performances. But if they can pull together 7 or 8 quality performances in a row, 17 points isn't out of the question.

 

I see the quality this team has and with Baines and Cleverly back, some quality depth as well. I just hope Roberto can get it all humming for a long stretch.

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  • 4 weeks later...

To the halfway mark now means next 5 matches. Giving back 2 points at Bournemouth can only be exorcised by taking points from each of the December matches. And that means, for me, 11 or 13 points, either of which would probably get us to 6th, sitting just behind Spurs, who have an easy schedule coming up.

 

Given that 12 is better than 11, 4 wins and 1 loss is acceptable. But 7 or 8 points would be very discouraging.

 

Get to 6th, and that would set up the opening match of the second half of the season: home to Spurs.

 

I hope we can be in 6th tonight. That would help, as staying next to Spurs isn't guaranteed, given their easy December.

Edited by Elston Gunnn
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To the halfway mark now means next 5 matches. Giving back 2 points at Bournemouth can only be exorcised by taking points from each of the December matches. And that means, for me, 11 or 13 points, either of which would probably get us to 6th, sitting just behind Spurs, who have an easy schedule coming up.

 

Given that 12 is better than 11, 4 wins and 1 loss is acceptable. But 7 or 8 points would be very discouraging.

 

Get to 6th, and that would set up the opening match of the second half of the season: home to Spurs.

 

I hope we can be in 6th tonight. That would help, as staying next to Spurs isn't guaranteed, given their easy December.

 

As City and Chelsea revealed this weekend, there are no easy games this season in the Prem.

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After the frustrating draw with Palace, we're down to 4 matches to end the first half of the season.

 

Assuming we're pushing for 5th, the bad news is that the only 2 clubs to play any of the top 9 the rest of December are Everton and Liverpool, both of whom play Leicester at home. Take a look at the EPL fixture list for December. The clubs now 5th through 9th are all playing bottom half of table clubs in December. So it may be that we'll need 10-12 from next 4 just to stay 9th or maybe get 8th.

Edited by Elston Gunnn
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