Elston Gunnn Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 At the beginning of the season, it was commonly said that Everton's first 10 matches were very challenging, so that if the Toffees could survive through the Arsenal match, they would the have a run of 9 matches to move up the table. I'd guess that most Everton fans saw Sunderland as a must-win, and we're delighted with the result, even while acknowledging that 6-4 might have been a more accurate scoreline. Then, I'd guess most would have seen the away to WHam as on paper the most challenging of our Nov-Dec fixtures. Taking a point was hardly a poor result. So, are we now optimistic about our prospects for the next 7? Sitting on 17, how many points do we need at halfway mark to stay competitive for top 4 at season's end? Some recent history: For last ten EPL seasons, the mean number of points for #4 is 71.2, the median is 70. To be "on track" for 70, we need to get to 35, which means we'd need 18 points from our next 7. Looking at the fixtures, yes, we could conceivably take anywhere from 17-21 points. Absent more injuries among our internationals this coming weekend, we should have a healthy squad except for Jagielka. For me, 13-14 points won't really suffice; and 9-10, forget it. If we have aspirations for 4th, we need 17-18 points from our next 7. Is that expecting too much? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 At the beginning of the season, it was commonly said that Everton's first 10 matches were very challenging, so that if the Toffees could survive through the Arsenal match, they would the have a run of 9 matches to move up the table. I'd guess that most Everton fans saw Sunderland as a must-win, and we're delighted with the result, even while acknowledging that 6-4 might have been a more accurate scoreline. Then, I'd guess most would have seen the away to WHam as on paper the most challenging of our Nov-Dec fixtures. Taking a point was hardly a poor result. So, are we now optimistic about our prospects for the next 7? Sitting on 17, how many points do we need at halfway mark to stay competitive for top 4 at season's end? Some recent history: For last ten EPL seasons, the mean number of points for #4 is 71.2, the median is 70. To be "on track" for 70, we need to get to 35, which means we'd need 18 points from our next 7. Looking at the fixtures, yes, we could conceivably take anywhere from 17-21 points. Absent more injuries among our internationals this coming weekend, we should have a healthy squad except for Jagielka. For me, 13-14 points won't really suffice; and 9-10, forget it. If we have aspirations for 4th, we need 17-18 points from our next 7. Is that expecting too much? I think it is, we won't get that many I don't think; I'd go thirteen. We'd still be in touch and I think with the way the season is going (strange results/unlikely teams towards the top) it might take less than seventy points to get top four anyway. We'd need a strong finish though and some results against the "big" boys like we did two years back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markjazzbassist Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 (edited) villa - win bournemouth - win boro - league cup - win palace - draw norwich - win leicester - draw newcastle - win stoke - win that's what i expect, but i think we'll see more draws sadly. the boro match is a must win for me. Edited November 9, 2015 by markjazzbassist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 that's what i expect, but i think we'll see more draws sadly. the boro match is a must win for me. I'll go into each individual game expecting us to win it, but it's not going to happen. I'd happily throw the 'boro game for 19/21 league points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markjazzbassist Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 I'll go into each individual game expecting us to win it, but it's not going to happen. I'd happily throw the 'boro game for 19/21 league points. i hear you. but i honestly believe those matches are all winnable and should be win barring palace and leicester who both are solid this year. the rest are minnows and we should win, but being everton we'll draw a bunch lose some and then beat man city and arsenal after that. FFS we need consistency, the reason the best teams stay top is they consistently beat the midtable and lower sides regardless of home or away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Romey 1878 Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 Consistency definitely needs to be found. We've not won two league games in a row yet this season. Matt and markjazzbassist 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markjazzbassist Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 Consistency definitely needs to be found. We've not won two league games in a row yet this season. didn't know that romey but that is a terrible stat to have. we need to improve that and home wins, we need to make goodison a place no one wants to play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith B Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 I agree that all the games look winnable right now. The problem is that Everton just have not had a run of consistently high level performances. But if they can pull together 7 or 8 quality performances in a row, 17 points isn't out of the question. I see the quality this team has and with Baines and Cleverly back, some quality depth as well. I just hope Roberto can get it all humming for a long stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post duncanmckenzieismagic Posted November 9, 2015 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 This is where we find out whether or not we have progressed at all from last season It is when teams come and park the bus that we have struggled as we have never had enough creativity to break them down Btay, Romey 1878, ForEverton2 and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elston Gunnn Posted December 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2015 (edited) To the halfway mark now means next 5 matches. Giving back 2 points at Bournemouth can only be exorcised by taking points from each of the December matches. And that means, for me, 11 or 13 points, either of which would probably get us to 6th, sitting just behind Spurs, who have an easy schedule coming up. Given that 12 is better than 11, 4 wins and 1 loss is acceptable. But 7 or 8 points would be very discouraging. Get to 6th, and that would set up the opening match of the second half of the season: home to Spurs. I hope we can be in 6th tonight. That would help, as staying next to Spurs isn't guaranteed, given their easy December. Edited December 7, 2015 by Elston Gunnn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornish Steve Posted December 7, 2015 Report Share Posted December 7, 2015 To the halfway mark now means next 5 matches. Giving back 2 points at Bournemouth can only be exorcised by taking points from each of the December matches. And that means, for me, 11 or 13 points, either of which would probably get us to 6th, sitting just behind Spurs, who have an easy schedule coming up. Given that 12 is better than 11, 4 wins and 1 loss is acceptable. But 7 or 8 points would be very discouraging. Get to 6th, and that would set up the opening match of the second half of the season: home to Spurs. I hope we can be in 6th tonight. That would help, as staying next to Spurs isn't guaranteed, given their easy December. As City and Chelsea revealed this weekend, there are no easy games this season in the Prem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted December 7, 2015 Report Share Posted December 7, 2015 Top four still possible, but we're not ruthless enough so probs 6th. I'd be happy to get two wins in a row and push on from there. Lowensda 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elston Gunnn Posted December 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2015 (edited) After the frustrating draw with Palace, we're down to 4 matches to end the first half of the season. Assuming we're pushing for 5th, the bad news is that the only 2 clubs to play any of the top 9 the rest of December are Everton and Liverpool, both of whom play Leicester at home. Take a look at the EPL fixture list for December. The clubs now 5th through 9th are all playing bottom half of table clubs in December. So it may be that we'll need 10-12 from next 4 just to stay 9th or maybe get 8th. Edited December 7, 2015 by Elston Gunnn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elston Gunnn Posted December 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2015 (edited) (Sorry, attempting to edit, almost double post.) But I will say, the next time Roberto froths at the mouth about our "deep squad," I will chastise him. Edited December 7, 2015 by Elston Gunnn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted December 7, 2015 Report Share Posted December 7, 2015 Of the easy run we've only managed to win at home against the 2 worst teams in the league. Positive we're playing well and undefeated, but I feel disappointed as we should be getting more points on the board and the manager doesn't seem to be adapting fast enough. Favourites and late subs will always be a bugbear. Romey 1878 and Matt 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted December 8, 2015 Report Share Posted December 8, 2015 We're 6 points off 3rd and not even half way. That's nothing lads! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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