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Ukraine/Russian Conflict


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25 minutes ago, Romey 1878 said:

It's amazing what happens when you have to vote with a gun pointed at you.

You think they're counting ballot papers, gun or not? Those boxes might as well have paper shredders in them, the results have been in the envelopes back in Moscow since the counterattack started  

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2 hours ago, RPG said:

We are entering the final phase now I think - though the phase may drag on a bit. Expect an announcement from Putin before the end of the week that the 4 regions have now been annexed into Russia and that any attack on them by Ukraine will be regarded as an attack on Russian territory and met with 'all weapons that are available.' This will likely be followed by a very short war of words between Ukraine/The West and Russia and then advances by Ukraine as it continues to reclaim land from the Russian invasion force.

Then, it's a case of who blinks first. Support for Ukraine should be ramped up, Russia will continue to lose the conventional military battle and Putin will then either choose to use, or choose not to use, non-conventional weapons. If he chooses not to use non-conventional weapons he has lost but can at least walk away. If he chooses to use non-conventional weapons he has also lost and Russia will pay a price (not just militarily) that will take generations to even begin the process of recovery from.

It should be pointed out that Russia already claims to have annexed Crimea (post 2014 invasion) and did not respond with non-conventional weapons when Ukraine acknowledged being behind the attacks there this year. Ukraine has also carried out raids on military targets inside mainland Russia, also without a non-conventional response from Putin.

I just hope someone in Russia with access to Putin and a pistol stops this mad man before many more thousands die.

A supposed attack on the pipelines too. Dunno about final but it's about to become more global. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
4 hours ago, Cornish Steve said:

Unfortunately, I suspect Russia's evacuation of Kherson is a prelude to its first use of tactical nuclear weapons. How the West responds will be crucial.

I fear you maybe right. It would keep the land bridge that's so important to them and "protect" Crimea, not to mention deal a massive blow to Ukraine before winter. It all seems very devious. 

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3 hours ago, Matt said:

I fear you maybe right. It would keep the land bridge that's so important to them and "protect" Crimea, not to mention deal a massive blow to Ukraine before winter. It all seems very devious. 

Republican leaders have just stated that, if they win control of the House in the upcoming elections, they will pull US support for Ukraine. That would be a complete and utter disaster.

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20 minutes ago, Cornish Steve said:

Republican leaders have just stated that, if they win control of the House in the upcoming elections, they will pull US support for Ukraine. That would be a complete and utter disaster.

That's putting all of Europe into danger, I don't think they will. Scale it back maybe, but they won't pull it. 

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10 minutes ago, RPG said:

I'm not saying that it isn't a possibility but I think it is more likely that Putin is just getting himself a large number of human shields and trying to improve his very limited negotiating position for when he eventually admits defeat. There will undoubtedly be booby traps left by retreating Russians all over Kherson and there is also the possibility of the dam being destroyed. Winter will hit hard in only a couple of weeks and the Russian forces are very poorly trained and/or equipped to deal with the additional challenges posed by consistent sub zero temperatures.

Now is the time to give Ukraine all the hardware assistance it needs, to protect Ukrainian cities and to continue taking the fight to Russia.

The winter has always served them well, trained or not. 

I'm not sure about about booby traps. I'm not sure they have the hardware to spare. Plus, seeing how they booby trapped previous withdrawals, I don't think it'll be as dangerous as before. 

Human shield theory holds though, I hope you're wrong. 

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11 minutes ago, RPG said:

Winters that served Russia well in the past occurred when the Russians were defending Russia and it was opposing forces (mainly German troops) who had a massive logistical tail to support. This time it is very much the other way around and Russia will likely lose as many troops to the environment (frostbite, hypothermia, degradation of morale leading to surrender, going awol, self inflicted injuries etc) as they do to Ukraine action.

So far as Putin is concerned, much like Stalin, he will be defending Russia regardless. Misery of troops has never been a concern of Russian military, they're more about quantity rather than quality. 

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1 hour ago, RPG said:

No argument there but it will affect the military outcome. Ukraine forces are better supplied, better trained, better led and have a far higher morale and belief in their cause than the Russian forces. I can see many Russians choosing POW status over death, frostbite or a Russian prison cell.

It will, and as Steve mentioned its looking to go in the way of mini-nukes. I think if it does, NATO gets involved and I can see China stepping back a bit from the Russian relations. Plus the new general was supposedly ruthless in Syria, dread to think what he'd be like "defending the motherland".

It's going to get much worse before it gets better. 

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