Ukraine/Russian Conflict

[Formby]

Anyone else worried about this? Putin playing brinkmanship brilliantly or a genuine prelude to war in Europe? It will have ghastly consequences. Biden's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan is the obvious trigger. China will be licking their lips at Taiwan and maybe even the Korean peninsula. European / NATO weakness exposed again. No real point in America spending so much on military hardware if they're not going to use it. 

[Matt]

21 minutes ago, Formby said:

Anyone else worried about this? Putin playing brinkmanship brilliantly or a genuine prelude to war in Europe? It will have ghastly consequences. Biden's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan is the obvious trigger. China will be licking their lips at Taiwan and maybe even the Korean peninsula. European / NATO weakness exposed again. No real point in America spending so much on military hardware if they're not going to use it. 

Yup. I called Crimea as the start of WW3, it's just taken longer for plans to come to fruition. Also heard something worrying from a friend who works in government, but hopefully its just routine.

[Formby]

4 minutes ago, Matt said:

Yup. I called Crimea as the start of WW3, it's just taken longer for plans to come to fruition. Also heard something worrying from a friend who works in government, but hopefully its just routine.

Can you share or is it Official Secrets Act stuff? 

[Matt]

1 minute ago, Formby said:

Can you share or is it Official Secrets Act stuff? 

Like I said, it's probably routine. Won't say more than that though. 

[Matt]

That's also not meant to cause panic. I tend to get lost in my brain and it escalates things that'll never happen; just the way brain works unfortunately, especially when exhausted. 

[Formby]

A few ex-KGB chiefs have apparently come out warning Putin of the consequences of invasion but he doesn't seem like the kind of man to be swayed. Very dangerous times. Hope common sense prevails but I really fear it won't do. 

[Matt]

Just now, Formby said:

A few ex-KGB chiefs have apparently come out warning Putin of the consequences of invasion but he doesn't seem like the kind of man to be swayed. Very dangerous times. Hope common sense prevails but I really fear it won't do. 

He'll probably have them strapped to the front of the first tanks to cross the border.

Common sense already failed by making promises that could never be kept. This was inevitable.

[Formby]

3 minutes ago, Matt said:

That's also not meant to cause panic. I tend to get lost in my brain and it escalates things that'll never happen; just the way brain works unfortunately, especially when exhausted. 

No problem - I think panic has already set in! Would feel slightly better if Biden and Johnson had an ounce of statesmenship and backbone between them.   

[Matt]

Just double checked. Its routine stuff for bad times. 

[Formby]

5 minutes ago, Matt said:

He'll probably have them strapped to the front of the first tanks to cross the border.

Common sense already failed by making promises that could never be kept. This was inevitable.

And what a mesage that would send - doesn't bear thinking about.

[Formby]

Time for the American Sixth Fleet to flex its muscles, I think. Like Cuba all over again for those that remember. If Putin thinks the Americans will respond, I am pretty sure he won't attack... 

[Matt]

4 minutes ago, Formby said:

No problem - I think panic has already set in! Would feel slightly better if Biden and Johnson had an ounce of statesmenship and backbone between them.   

This is bigger than Ukraine though. If there isn't a stance, China look at the Koreas, Taiwan and waltz on over knowing there's "repercussions" that they simply don't seem to care about. 

I'm too tired, head is racing with all sorts and not doing anything good. Another friend is saying if it comes to it, their hardware doesn't stand a chance and there's always cutting the banking ties. It's all very Cuba feeling though, or at least what I've read about it. 

[Palfy]

I’m not to concerned having heard today the Germans have offered to donate 500 helmets to help Ukrainian fight the Russians off, absolute piss takers that will be seen as show of weakness to the Russians when the rest of Europe should be standing strong and defiant and sending troops into the Ukraine in there tens of thousands as the Russians have done in Belarus. I’m convinced with Putin you have to fight fire with fire it’s the only sort of language he understands.  

[MikeO]

I'm just a bit amazed at Russia's "red line," that Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO, how in the world do they think they should be allowed to dictate to a separate sovereign state what they're allowed to do? They already have Nato states (Estonia, Latvia) bordering them; just don't get it, do they think Nato is going to invade?

[Matt]

1 minute ago, MikeO said:

I'm just a bit amazed at Russia's "red line," that Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO, how in the world do they think they should be allowed to dictate to a separate sovereign state what they're allowed to do? They already have Nato states (Estonia, Latvia) bordering them; just don't get it, do they think Nato is going to invade?

The parallels quotes with WW2 are quite accurate to be honest. Promises have been made and broken, so I get their anger at that. But it's all just an excuse to do what Putin wants. Got to be careful saying Russians here, this is like saying Germans were all Nazis. For sure Putin has his army but I can't believe the country is behind him when he rules by fear.  

[dunlopp9987]

I'm currently reading Malcolm Gladwell's newest book The Bomber Mafia, about the group of men from the US who revolutionized air warfare in WWII.

That, coupled with this recent Russia/Ukraine situation, got me thinking about how I have never really seen an old-fashioned "war" take place in my lifetime. I'm 34, so the closest I've seen is the Iraq invasion of 2003. I wasn't quite old enough to remember Desert Storm, so the Iraq/Afghanistan wars are my only real exposure to the "boots on the ground, troops invading" type of war. So much of the "war" I've seen in my lifetime (at least the war that makes the headlines) is that of suicide bombers, small militias, terrorist cells.

I honestly thought WW3 would never happen (still partially think that's true), mainly because the nature of warfare has entirely changed in the last 20-30 years. But now we have troops lined up ready to invade, and it feels very reminiscent of the wars that made up the 20th century.

I ultimately think Putin will back down in fears of escalating an all-out attack on Russia by the entire West, but who fucking knows anymore.

[Formby]

47 minutes ago, dunlopp9987 said:

I ultimately think Putin will back down in fears of escalating an all-out attack on Russia by the entire West, but who fucking knows anymore.

I hope you're right! Do you think the American public would support an intervention in Ukraine by US forces? Has Biden got it in him to fight? Without America, the Ukraine is lost, I fear. Europe has neither the appetite nor the manpower to intervene without American backing.

[dunlopp9987]

12 minutes ago, Formby said:

I hope you're right! Do you think the American public would support an intervention in Ukraine by US forces? Has Biden got it in him to fight? Without America, the Ukraine is lost, I fear. Europe has neither the appetite nor the manpower to intervene without American backing.

I think he'd be wary of it, especially with midterm elections coming up this year and Democrats looking like they're going to possibly lose both the House and the Senate. The last thing the electorate wants is to be entering into another war.

However if the administration feels like they could back Ukraine and push back Russia permanently by the time November comes, maybe they'd go for it.

Ultimately I hope they do whatever is best for the citizens of Ukraine and don't cow-tow to the politics of it all. Unfortunately that's the world we live in now.

[Matt]

8 hours ago, dunlopp9987 said:

I think he'd be wary of it, especially with midterm elections coming up this year and Democrats looking like they're going to possibly lose both the House and the Senate. The last thing the electorate wants is to be entering into another war.

However if the administration feels like they could back Ukraine and push back Russia permanently by the time November comes, maybe they'd go for it.

Ultimately I hope they do whatever is best for the citizens of Ukraine and don't cow-tow to the politics of it all. Unfortunately that's the world we live in now.

True, the electorate won't want to enter another war. But running away from an old adversary also won't go down well. US not backing up its allies also has massive, far reaching implications; Ukraine is a litmus test. 

[Haiku]

11 hours ago, MikeO said:

I'm just a bit amazed at Russia's "red line," that Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO, how in the world do they think they should be allowed to dictate to a separate sovereign state what they're allowed to do? They already have Nato states (Estonia, Latvia) bordering them; just don't get it, do they think Nato is going to invade?

But who made this conflict then? Why everyone thinks Russia will invade Ukraine?

[Matt]

17 minutes ago, Haiku said:

But who made this conflict then? Why everyone thinks Russia will invade Ukraine?

Probably because they've got 100k troops and a load of heavy gear lined up on the border and have already invaded in recent history?

[Palfy]

46 minutes ago, Haiku said:

But who made this conflict then? Why everyone thinks Russia will invade Ukraine?

This is all central to the Minsk11 agreement which was brokered in 2015 by France and Germany there was 13 points that needed to be implemented which haven’t been done by Ukraine and the separatist that annexed Crimea. 
The separatists who are not Russia but Russian backed believe that one of the 13 points gains them a seat in the Ukrainian Parliament, which means they would have a veto to stop all Ukrainian foreign policies, one being a full membership of NATO Ukraine dispute this as they see NATO as the only real defence from Russian aggression now and in the future. 
It’s all pretty complicated and the French and Germans have pretty much fucked up by allowing to many of the points to be construed differently by both sides.  
But instead of backing Ukraine in there interpretation of the agreement they are backing the separatists and the Russians by saying after the meeting with Putin that they need to implement Minsk11 fully giving power to the Russians to control Ukrainian foreign policies, the Ukrainians said no were are an independent country and won’t give up political control of their country. 

[Matt]

1 hour ago, Palfy said:

This is all central to the Minsk11 agreement which was brokered in 2015 by France and Germany there was 13 points that needed to be implemented which haven’t been done by Ukraine and the separatist that annexed Crimea. 
The separatists who are not Russia but Russian backed believe that one of the 13 points gains them a seat in the Ukrainian Parliament, which means they would have a veto to stop all Ukrainian foreign policies, one being a full membership of NATO Ukraine dispute this as they see NATO as the only real defence from Russian aggression now and in the future. 
It’s all pretty complicated and the French and Germans have pretty much fucked up by allowing to many of the points to be construed differently by both sides.  
But instead of backing Ukraine in there interpretation of the agreement they are backing the separatists and the Russians by saying after the meeting with Putin that they need to implement Minsk11 fully giving power to the Russians to control Ukrainian foreign policies, the Ukrainians said no were are an independent country and won’t give up political control of their country. 

It goes back further though, look at the whole 1997 story. Whilst Putin has been proven wrong on his belief promises were broken, the semantics of the agreement are really easy to interpret in different ways (from what I've scanned through). This isn't French and German cockup, this is a collective NATO cockup. 

[Palfy]

1 minute ago, Matt said:

It goes back further though, look at the whole 1997 story. Whilst Putin has been proven wrong on his belief promises were broken, the semantics of the agreement are really easy to interpret in different ways (from what I've scanned through). This isn't French and German cockup, this is a collective NATO cockup. 

Americans have just released a statement saying that they believe the attack will take place at 1:00am tomorrow, and what’s the rest of the world going to do, stand idly by and impose sanctions how fucking futile is that. 

[Hafnia]

my feeling is that Russia are testing western unity, i'm not really up on politics and history but I certainly feel that America really need to stand firm along with Europe.

[Matt]

1 hour ago, Palfy said:

Americans have just released a statement saying that they believe the attack will take place at 1:00am tomorrow, and what’s the rest of the world going to do, stand idly by and impose sanctions how fucking futile is that. 

Take the money away from them I guess. Cut SWIFT ties, freeze all the bank accounts, the gas line. Physical confrontation was alway going to be unlikely from a western perspective.

 

1 hour ago, Hafnia said:

my feeling is that Russia are testing western unity, i'm not really up on politics and history but I certainly feel that America really need to stand firm along with Europe.

That's my hope for the current situation. Putin has gone all Joker, doing very little but getting a lot of people really stressed out. 

[Formby]

3 hours ago, Palfy said:

Americans have just released a statement saying that they believe the attack will take place at 1:00am tomorrow, and what’s the rest of the world going to do, stand idly by and impose sanctions how fucking futile is that. 

It would be very odd if the Russians did attack at that time! 'Okay, Vladimir, the US says we will attack at 1. Let's call their bluff, comrade!'

NATO will wring its collective hands and freeze Russian assets, but so what, Ukraine's oil fields will be in Russian hands within weeks. Biden hasn't the mental capacity to deliver a speech, never mind a military response.

Europe is so ineffectual, it's embarrassing. Why on Earth are we still dependent on Russian gas supplies??? 

[Palfy]

19 minutes ago, Formby said:

Biden hasn't the mental capacity to deliver a speech, never mind a military response.

I like that quite funny but so very true.  

[Zoo 2.0]

I don't think that this is necessarily the start of all out war, but I do think that if Russia takes over Ukraine they'll potentially look to strengthen further by taking countries that are next door, such as Georgia (which in turn will force major action, and potentially WWIII).

I'm not massively into politics, and haven't really dug too deep into the whole Russia/Ukraine scenario but it does worry me (especially with a little one now) how unbelievably fucked the world seems to be; Covid, Johnson, Biden/Trump, Russia/Ukraine etc. It's worrying.

[Palfy]

5 minutes ago, Zoo 2.0 said:

I don't think that this is necessarily the start of all out war, but I do think that if Russia takes over Ukraine they'll potentially look to strengthen further by taking countries that are next door, such as Georgia (which in turn will force major action, and potentially WWIII).

I'm not massively into politics, and haven't really dug too deep into the whole Russia/Ukraine scenario but it does worry me (especially with a little one now) how unbelievably fucked the world seems to be; Covid, Johnson, Biden/Trump, Russia/Ukraine etc. It's worrying.

I agree mate it is worrying what type of world we are bringing our kids into, and we seem helpless in being able to make the changes needed to change the directions we seem to be heading into.