Ukraine/Russian Conflict

[Palfy]

Hungary and Italy now saying they are prepared to take SWIFT away from Russia, Germany still refusing

[Sibdane]

21 minutes ago, Elston Gunnn said:

Don’t know where to post this.  If it’s been posted elsewhere, sorry for repeat.

Poland won’t play WC qualifier v. Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/60536030

Sweden as well. 

[Matt]

2 hours ago, RPG said:

There is already much anti war and anti Putin sentiment starting to surface in Russia. It has been leaked that Putin wanted Ukraine operations ‘completed’ (whatever that means) in 2 weeks. We are now well into day 3 and his day one objectives have not yet been achieved so he will be starting to sweat. Twenty six countries (inc UK) are openly continuing to supply Ukraine with advanced weapons and if Ukraine can hold out for 2 weeks - or even push back - then Putin is toast.

And this is where patience is key, despite how hard it is to watch. Ukraine will have drills for this, they'll have tactics to frustrate. My concern from that is he'll go big rather can go home. 

[Palfy]

38 minutes ago, Matt said:

And this is where patience is key, despite how hard it is to watch. Ukraine will have drills for this, they'll have tactics to frustrate. My concern from that is he'll go big rather can go home. 

He will go big but not nuclear, as it is he hasn’t really got the complete backing of all his Generals, I think his own generals will ultimately be the people to bring him down, they won’t allow him to enter them into the war of all wars. 

[MikeO]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60525996

[Matt]

1 hour ago, Palfy said:

He will go big but not nuclear, as it is he hasn’t really got the complete backing of all his Generals, I think his own generals will ultimately be the people to bring him down, they won’t allow him to enter them into the war of all wars. 

Kind of sad that that's somewhat of a relief but honestly, I'm not convinced. 

Apparently he's not provided enough fuel for his tanks! He's gone full on Hitler just assuming he can waltz through and has no backup plan.

[Matt]

2 hours ago, Palfy said:

Hungary and Italy now saying they are prepared to take SWIFT away from Russia, Germany still refusing

Not any more. 

[Palfy]

Just now, Matt said:

Not any more. 

Really now we are taking

[Matt]

1 minute ago, Palfy said:

Really now we are taking

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60517447?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621a653d980bea49f4b7a2c0%26Germany backs 'targeted' restrictions of Russian Swift membership%262022-02-26T17%3A45%3A24.691Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:76785652-7861-4fe4-bb99-6d54a6386bbe&pinned_post_asset_id=621a653d980bea49f4b7a2c0&pinned_post_type=share

Like I said mate. Patience. 

[Palfy]

3 minutes ago, Matt said:

Kind of sad that that's somewhat of a relief but honestly, I'm not convinced. 

Apparently he's not provided enough fuel for his tanks! He's gone full on Hitler just assuming he can waltz through and has no backup plan.

Sounds like a master class in how not to invade. 

[Matt]

12 minutes ago, Palfy said:

Sounds like a master class in how not to invade. 

Reading its because he assumed he'd have Ukraines fuel depots already. How skint must Russia already be if they're skimping on fuel for a landbased invasion? Then ask yourself, how quickly are all these sanctions going to hit?

[Palfy]

13 minutes ago, Matt said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60517447?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621a653d980bea49f4b7a2c0%26Germany backs 'targeted' restrictions of Russian Swift membership%262022-02-26T17%3A45%3A24.691Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:76785652-7861-4fe4-bb99-6d54a6386bbe&pinned_post_asset_id=621a653d980bea49f4b7a2c0&pinned_post_type=share

Like I said mate. Patience. 

Apologies mate not my strongest skills set

[Matt]

23 minutes ago, Palfy said:

Apologies mate not my strongest skills set

And now commiting anti tank weaponry.

I know, and especially at such a scary time it's hard to not jump the gun. I'm incredibly impulsive and emotional as I'm sure you've all seen over the last however many years. But because military and politics is something I've immersed myself in over the last 5 years or so, I feel confident enough to control myself on the subject. Usually, wasn't so much the case during my drinking days and still today with insomnia raising its ugly head again. 

There's another old saying of "never interrupt the enemy whilst they're making a mistake". If Putin has underestimate Ukraine and overestimated his own ability, then as horrific as this is short term, it might be more beneficial mid term. That's a big if though. 

[Matt]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60517447?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621a7a4a980bea49f4b7a32a%26Zelensky hails Germany's weapons U-turn%262022-02-26T19%3A14%3A09.677Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:7c55c6bd-0bf7-499c-b95c-d0f8d8291fc2&pinned_post_asset_id=621a7a4a980bea49f4b7a32a&pinned_post_type=share

 

[London Blue]

Putin wanted a quick war, maybe to take Kyiv and then take the east of Ukraine along the Dnieper river. Looks like the bravery of Ukrainian people and armed forces has held the Russians up, the flow of weapons and support is key in making the war too costly for them.

FIBUA (Fighting in a built up area) is incredibly costly in lives on all sides, and time will force Putin to use heavy artillery which will be devastating to the civilians and those fighting. Ukraine is a massive country with 40 million people and the level of resistance from both Ukranian armed forces and civilians will bleed Russian resources and resolve. It will also isolate further Russia from the international community.

I expect Russia to be removed from Swift, which along with the sanctions will hurt. The large reserve of cash he has built up will be quickly eaten up in propping up the Ruble and subsiding companies and banks that will lose so much money. 

I expect that the longer this goes on the greater the chance of those supporting Putin will either force him out or to stop the invasion, either way Putin and Russia will weakened substantially. 

[Matt]

3 minutes ago, London Blue said:

Putin wanted a quick war, maybe to take Kyiv and then take the east of Ukraine along the Dnieper river. Looks like the bravery of Ukrainian people and armed forces has held the Russians up, the flow of weapons and support is key in making the war too costly for them.

FIBUA (Fighting in a built up area) is incredibly costly in lives on all sides, and time will force Putin to use heavy artillery which will be devastating to the civilians and those fighting. Ukraine is a massive country with 40 million people and the level of resistance from both Ukranian armed forces and civilians will bleed Russian resources and resolve. It will also isolate further Russia from the international community.

I expect Russia to be removed from Swift, which along with the sanctions will hurt. The large reserve of cash he has built up will be quickly eaten up in propping up the Ruble and subsiding companies and banks that will lose so much money. 

I expect that the longer this goes on the greater the chance of those supporting Putin will either force him out or to stop the invasion, either way Putin and Russia will weakened substantially. 

Just need to look how the Chechens demolished the Russians in Grozny. Urban warfare against a smaller force who know the city is extremely dangerous without massive infantry support. If the proposed numbers are true, Putin has half of his total trained (emphasis there, he'll resort to conscription no doubt if needed) infantry available which leaves the rest of Russia incredibly vulnerable if things don't go well. He needed to take the city in a day or 2 and he's failed so far. These delays and the resistance he'll face even if he takes Kyiv is already costly and must be seriously pissing him off. The Russians have never had a problem with numbers, knowing how to use them has proven to be the issue. Unfortunately that's always resulted in massive loss of life (WW2 for example - 20-27 MILLION estimated Russian deaths between military and civilians).

[Formby]

I have been very impressed with Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, showing immense courage and fight, rallying his people in those videos. There is a quiet determination about him. Amazing to think he was a comedian up until 2019.    

[MikeO]

31 minutes ago, Formby said:

I have been very impressed with Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, showing immense courage and fight, rallying his people in those videos. There is a quiet determination about him. Amazing to think he was a comedian up until 2019.  

He's been amazing, offered a way out of the country by America says, "I Need Ammunition, Not A Ride."

[Sibdane]

Putin has ordered nuclear deterrents on alert. 

[Matt]

30 minutes ago, Sibdane said:

Putin has ordered nuclear deterrents on alert. 

Which is scary but also shows how worried/frustrated he is. This does not mean he's planning on using them, and it's not the first threat he's made about it. Again it was almost inevitable if he didn't steamroller Ukraine. Scary but not certainty. 

[Formby]

1 hour ago, MikeO said:

He's been amazing, offered a way out of the country by America says, "I Need Ammunition, Not A Ride."

It's a great one-liner, delivered with perfect timing! Maybe the previous career helped? In years to come, I hope to see it in a list of famous political quotations. It deserves to be.

[Matt]

21 hours ago, Palfy said:

Really now we are taking

Now commiting NATO 2% defence spending (€100bn) and extra weaponary. They must've found alternatives to their fuel dependence. 

[Palfy]

23 minutes ago, Matt said:

Now commiting NATO 2% defence spending (€100bn) and extra weaponary. They must've found alternatives to their fuel dependence. 

I would say that the government have been shamed by the rest of Europe, even German citizens have been out in force demonstrating their show of support and stand with Ukraine. 
All members of NATO should commit to the 2% of GDP especially the richest nations in the union, after all it’s the best form of defence in the world and for it to operate properly it needs the funds just as much as the country’s that have joined. 
On the subject of Oil and Gas the Germans are still buying from the Russians with for now the blessing of it’s allies, this may be why we are seeing a change of stance by the Germans, to now agree to SWIFT, supply weapons and contribute to NATO in full, I think that’s part of some sort of compromise to them still buying from the Russians. The Ukrainian's have publicly thanked everyone for their additional support but  on the issue of SWIFT they have asked for all and not a selected few Russian banks to have SWIFT removed, and they have also asked for all country’s to stop buying Gas and Oil from Russia which was aimed at the Germans. It’s good that more sanctions are being heaped on the Russians, but if in the coming days it’s felt it needs to go even further with all Russian banks being blocked from SWIFT and no one being allowed to buy Oil and Gas from Russia, I feel Germany will abstain from the tougher sanctions. 

[Matt]

31 minutes ago, Palfy said:

I would say that the government have been shamed by the rest of Europe, even German citizens have been out in force demonstrating their show of support and stand with Ukraine. 
All members of NATO should commit to the 2% of GDP especially the richest nations in the union, after all it’s the best form of defence in the world and for it to operate properly it needs the funds just as much as the country’s that have joined. 
On the subject of Oil and Gas the Germans are still buying from the Russians with for now the blessing of it’s allies, this may be why we are seeing a change of stance by the Germans, to now agree to SWIFT, supply weapons and contribute to NATO in full, I think that’s part of some sort of compromise to them still buying from the Russians. The Ukrainian's have publicly thanked everyone for their additional support but  on the issue of SWIFT they have asked for all and not a selected few Russian banks to have SWIFT removed, and they have also asked for all country’s to stop buying Gas and Oil from Russia which was aimed at the Germans. It’s good that more sanctions are being heaped on the Russians, but if in the coming days it’s felt it needs to go even further with all Russian banks being blocked from SWIFT and no one being allowed to buy Oil and Gas from Russia, I feel Germany will abstain from the tougher sanctions. 

There's doing the right thing for others, but you can't do that mid/long term if you throw your own country into chaos. If Putin turned off the taps, Germany stops (40% of their gas comes from Russia). The EU stops (30% of Russian exports). Not checked oil.  Its a ridiculous situation but it is the reality. Unless there's a backup plan in place, without being extorted, you can't just turn off a fuel supply without imploding yourself and then you're a hindrance rather than a help. It took a few days longer than others but others aren't as dependent as Germany. 

NATO budget increase prior to this would've also exacerbated the issue and ramped up tensions against all the west. Putin has given the excuse to actually meet the requirements. Either intentionally or not, he has given the green light for NATO to strengthen itself by making the first move. 

EU has made a joint declaration to provide arms. That's massive. 

[Matt]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/starlink-service-ukraine-elon-musk-b2024184.html

 

[Palfy]

7 minutes ago, Matt said:

EU has made a joint declaration to provide arms. That's massive. 

The EU wheels always seem to slow to turn but I suppose that’s to be expected when every country is a chief, but your right it is a massive help to the Ukrainian’s and huge statement to the Russians. 

[Palfy]

3 minutes ago, Matt said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/starlink-service-ukraine-elon-musk-b2024184.html

 

I saw that earlier today, I’ve been glued to Sky news pretty much 24/7, pissing the missus off to be honest, but as I’ve been saying to her this is a effecting us now and could effect us a hell of a lot more very soon, and as a micro manager and control freak I need to know what’s happening good or bad

[Matt]

10 minutes ago, Palfy said:

The EU wheels always seem to slow to turn but I suppose that’s to be expected when every country is a chief, but your right it is a massive help to the Ukrainian’s and huge statement to the Russians. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621ba8b5ec502b53cd48003e%26'One of the biggest shifts ever seen in German foreign policy'%262022-02-27T17%3A37%3A11.833Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:ad344255-c26a-4ad8-b30d-e1329b1c8fb9&pinned_post_asset_id=621ba8b5ec502b53cd48003e&pinned_post_type=share

 

[Matt]

Sweden, Finland and the biggest surprise in Turkey all commiting support in some form or another. It would be great if more from the rest of the world united as a collective show of force now. 

[Palfy]

26 minutes ago, Matt said:

Sweden, Finland and the biggest surprise in Turkey all commiting support in some form or another. It would be great if more from the rest of the world united as a collective show of force now. 

It would, not completely sure but I thought Turkey was one of the first country’s to support them from years ago, I’ll be honest I haven’t checked just something in the back of my memory.