Brexit...

[Romey 1878]

May is going to outline the exit plan in a speech on Tuesday apparently.

[MikeO]

May is going to outline the exit plan in a speech on Tuesday apparently.

 

James May hopefully; he'd probably make a better go of it!

[johnh]

The Bank for International Settlement, (the central bank for central banks), based in Switzerland have stated that the fall in sterling wasn't the result of Brexit. They state that what they term as the 'flash crash' was likely caused by a 'confluence of factors' rather than a 'single clear driver'. These include the fact that it occurred in the early hours of Asian trading when there was a lack of sterling dealers in the market.

[MikeO]

The Bank for International Settlement, (the central bank for central banks), based in Switzerland have stated that the fall in sterling wasn't the result of Brexit. They state that what they term as the 'flash crash' was likely caused by a 'confluence of factors' rather than a 'single clear driver'. These include the fact that it occurred in the early hours of Asian trading when there was a lack of sterling dealers in the market.

 

Must be true then.

 

Clear as my windscreen was iced up yesterday .

[rubecula]

Out means out? The politicians would argue that water was dry if they had a referendum decision it was wet.

[holystove]

Regardless of how the politicians will hash it out, the level of hostility in the press makes me fear this won't end with a good EU-UK deal.

 

I assume behind closed doors May and her European counterparts are much more amicable with each other, but won't public pressure force them to eventually also be tough with each other in their private meetings?

 

I personally believe May is only using 'tough' language to placate the Daily Mail, Telegraph, Daily Express,.. crowd but apparently European newspapers think it necessary to strike back.

 

El Pais (Spain): "May is eye-wateringly hostile" - Le Monde (France): "Brussels needs to prepare weaponry after May speech".

 

These two front pages:

 

 

to quote Trump : "Sad!"

[holystove]

Follow up - some FT journalist must be reading our forum because they just posted an article on this

 

UK v Europe: newspaper reactions to Theresa May’s Brexit speech

https://www.ft.com/content/87465ad4-dd60-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce

[Matt]

[johnh]

Seeing as how the EU have spent a lot of the time since the referendum saying that they will give us a hard time during negotiations to discourage other countries from following suit, I think May was right to let them know we won't be a push-over.

[Matt]

Seeing as how the EU have spent a lot of the time since the referendum saying that they will give us a hard time during negotiations to discourage other countries from following suit, I think May was right to let them know we won't be a push-over.

True, if it goes ahead then it would be foolish to go out looking weak. There's a real balance needed between self-confidence and humility in order to make it work.

 

Unfortunately, one of the people involved is this clown which is going to make things sooooo much more complex...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38658998

Edited January 18, 2017 by Matt

[holystove]

3) the EU will pay for the cake

[johnh]

Re 3) Can we have that in writing.

[Matt]

Re 3) Can we have that in writing.

we'll get Trumps team right on it

[MikeO]

we'll get Trumps team right on it

 

Mexico are going to pay for it? Cool.

[holystove]

Follow up on yesterday. That escalated quickly

 

[Matt]

Not really the done thing, posting that rag on here dude

[holystove]

Sorry Matt!

 

Now for the good news. In today's Guardian there is an article by Europe's most fanatical federalist, Guy Verhofstadt, in which he actually makes a lot of sense. It is noteworthy that he talks about a deal that is least harmful for all concerned. This is a statement I fully agree with. It's important to get the best possible deal for the UK and the EU, but that deal will still be worse (edit: from an economic point of view!!) than what we both have now.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/18/not-punish-britain-shed-illusions-eu-fair-deal

 

"The EU will work in a frank and open manner to help deliver a Brexit that is least harmful for all concerned"

"Contrary to the deeply unhelpful comments by the British foreign secretary Boris Johnson yesterday, who suggested that François Hollande was trying to “administer punishment beatings” in the manner of “some world war two movie”, no one in Europe wants to “punish” either Britain or the British. I have never heard any MEP or European leader call for this, in private or public."

"I am the first to recognise the importance of May’s statement on the need for close cooperation on security matters, both internal and external. We will have to find a way to cooperate on anti-terrorism and defence in a structured and systemic way."

"One of the most pressing priorities will be to find a solution to the intolerable situation of many European Union citizens working and living in the UK and, likewise, the millions of British citizens currently resident in other EU countries. "

"But many of my colleagues are simply bemused by the UK government’s threat to deregulate its economy, or walk away from negotiations, if the UK’s goals are not delivered."

"It is increasingly clear that Trump and Russia now seek the disintegration of the European Union. But I don’t see why chaos on the continent would be in the interests of Britain. Post-Brexit, I hope that the UK and the EU can work together to defend what remains of the liberal democratic order."

"Let us hope for a future relationship based on trust and genuine partnership."

 

 

Remember, this by Europe's biggest fanatic. Now please make the tabloids and the extremist Tories stop poisoning the public debate.

Edited January 19, 2017 by holystove

[holystove]

Apparently Juncker agrees with me on the public debate issue .. (Juncker agreeing with me not normally something I would be happy about )

 

The president of the EU commission has said talks on Britain’s departure will be “very, very, very difficult” as Europe’s press turned hostile

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/18/jean-claude-juncker-says-brexit-talks-will-be-very-very-very-difficult

[holystove]

Boris, Gove, etc should also remember this : https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/18/europe-loser-brexit-britain

 

I disagree with the title of the article because it doesn't set the proper tone imo.. but the author does raise some very important issues which show the relative weakness of the UK's hand.

[Matt]

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/man-who-cant-stop-talking-shite-clearly-ideal-for-important-negotiations-20170119120484

 

Still makes more sense than most of the newspapers...

[markjazzbassist]

In sorry but May is an idiot. The best deal? You fucked over a whole slew of countries and you think they want to help you? The UK has no bargaining power they want out their hand has been played and everyone knows it. Not like they'll stay if you shaft them. I fully expect the EU to shaft them and rightfully so.

 

These politicians truly are spoiled rich kids with no concept of reality.

[Matt]

In sorry but May is an idiot. The best deal? You fucked over a whole slew of countries and you think they want to help you? The UK has no bargaining power they want out their hand has been played and everyone knows it. Not like they'll stay if you shaft them. I fully expect the EU to shaft them and rightfully so.

 

These politicians truly are spoiled rich kids with no concept of reality.

Add to the fact they want tighter control on immigration, or in the case of India refusal to review the rules, and deals with the "global market" suddenly becomes a tad more difficult:

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-britain-india-trade-deal-freedom-of-movement-delhi-boris-johnson-a7534026.html

[Matt]

"Afternoon, Sir. Can we help?"

"Yeah - I want a better deal on my membership."

"OK, here's the best we can do."

"That's not good enough for me."

"Really? No-one else in the club has such a deal."

"Well, I don't like the paying and I don't like the rules. I don't like how we vote. You're all a dictator. I've decided - I'm leaving. I'm cancelling my membership."

"OK"

"But I still want access."

"Right. OK - we can sort out some partial access deal... but you'd need full membership for full access."

"Oh, so you want to punish me for not being a member, eh?!"

"No..."

"Yes, you're punishing me. You're just like a WWII prison guard beating me for trying to escape."

"Um, what? You're free to go..."

"You need me more than I need you!"

"Please go..."

[holystove]

if before the vote it would have been clear that brexit would mean leaving the single market, would the majority still have voted yes? Hannan, Boris, even banks and farage, they all said the UK would remain in the single market.

 

or is the single market aspect of the vote too technical and would a majority have chosen to leave the EU anyway? (I personally doubt it)

 

May is becoming so entrenched she has lost sight of what is best for her country.

[johnh]

My, The Guardian does get a lot of quotes on here. Its a bit like Putin quoting Pravda to support his case.

[holystove]

My, The Guardian does get a lot of quotes on here. Its a bit like Putin quoting Pravda to support his case.

apart from the juncker quote, the two articles I posted were opinion pieces which just as easily could have been in The Telegraph?

[Cornish Steve]

if before the vote it would have been clear that brexit would mean leaving the single market, would the majority still have voted yes? Hannan, Boris, even banks and farage, they all said the UK would remain in the single market.

 

or is the single market aspect of the vote too technical and would a majority have chosen to leave the EU anyway? (I personally doubt it)

 

May is becoming so entrenched she has lost sight of what is best for her country.

 

This is the key point: Britons don't want to be part of a United States of Europe, but we do want to be part of a Common Market/Economic Community: economic union not political union. This is the issue in a nutshell. If all parties could wake up to this fact, the Brexit would go a lot more smoothly and less acrimoniously.

[Matt]

 

This is the key point: Britons don't want to be part of a United States of Europe, but we do want to be part of a Common Market/Economic Community: economic union not political union. This is the issue in a nutshell. If all parties could wake up to this fact, the Brexit would go a lot more smoothly and less acrimoniously.

Rather simplified but yeah. The issue is that those leading automatically create fear and panic because they're so under-qualified (again, Boris is the obvious example there).

[markjazzbassist]

 

This is the key point: Britons don't want to be part of a United States of Europe, but we do want to be part of a Common Market/Economic Community: economic union not political union. This is the issue in a nutshell. If all parties could wake up to this fact, the Brexit would go a lot more smoothly and less acrimoniously.

 

as my old boss used to say "and I'd like to have a full head of hair and a smaller nose, but those things just aren't possible"

[MikeO]

 

This is the key point: Britons don't want to be part of a United States of Europe, but we do want to be part of a Common Market/Economic Community: economic union not political union. This is the issue in a nutshell. If all parties could wake up to this fact, the Brexit would go a lot more smoothly and less acrimoniously.

 

Not all (and I've said it before), I'd love to be part of the United States of Europe as the first step to being part of the United States of the World.