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On 11/10/2021 at 15:12, MikeO said:

Mercedes disagree with you..

On Lap 41 Mercedes had called Hamilton in but he’d insisted then on staying out. The team was quite relaxed about allowing him to do so, as he looked likely to be finishing third if the tyres could hold out – and if it did somehow become dry enough for slicks towards the end, he might even be in contention for the win.

As Mercedes’ Andrew Shovlin explained, “If it transitions to dry, Lewis is suddenly back in the fight for a win because he’s made a whole load of race time back by not having to do the extra stop. And, can he actually get to the end on the intermediate and by doing that banking that P3?”

But by the time Leclerc’s rubber had died, Mercedes was already seeing some worrying signs. The temperatures of Hamilton’s rears had dropped and bottomed out and meanwhile the earlier stoppers, having nursed their new tyres through the delicate stage, were now upping the pace. “It started to become clear to us that it was never going to be right for the slicks and our strategy tools were showing that we'd get beaten by Perez and Leclerc anyway if we stayed out,” continued Shovlin.

Had Hamilton pitted on Lap 41 he’d likely have finished third. Had he ignored the call to come in on Lap 50 he may have suffered a tyre failure (the right-rear was down to the canvas and Pirelli’s Mario Isola didn’t believe it would have made the remaining eight laps) and would certainly have been passed by Perez and Leclerc anyway.

It was clear to the Mercedes pit wall earlier than to Hamilton that the staying out gamble had already bust. He was now in a strategic no-man’s land – and it might potentially have got worse if he’d not pitted when he did, because if he’d pitted just a lap later he’d have rejoined behind Pierre Gasly, who was lapping up to 2s faster than Hamilton.

“We’d started to see a bit of a drop-off with Lewis anyway,” says Shovlin, “and on the [race-sim] planners, suddenly we were seeing that those places we would lose by doing the stop we were going to lose anyway on track - and there was even a risk from further behind if he’d really dropped off the curve. So it was really just a case of cutting our losses, not getting too greedy.”

Even Ocon’s non-stop run to 10th showed the problem Mercedes potentially faced. He was passed by Lance Stroll with five laps to go. In those remaining five laps he lost 17s to the Aston Martin man. “That’s how quickly you fall off,” says Shovlin, “and that’s what’s in our mind. That’s where it goes wrong.”

These are high-jeopardy calls in the context of the fight for the world championship. A gamble was taken, it didn’t work, further damage was limited by taking action. Once the emotion of losing those places had faded, Hamilton could see the logic behind the call.

“In a championship battle there’s a point where you’ve got to stop taking risks and cut your losses,” summarised Shovlin, “and although those decisions are difficult to do you’ve got to be strong and you’ve got to take them.”

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.monday-morning-debrief-hamilton-was-furious-at-mercedes-late-pitstop-call-in.4wR2L8lu1jrpU8AnfFQYWN.html

Hamilton thought otherwise. 

Neither side of the argument really knows what was going to happen, but at that point with only a few laps to go he was holding his own on pace. 

Someone else (Ocon?) had their pace fall off a cliff but that doesnt mean Hamilton would have suffered the same. It would have been an interesting finish!

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1 hour ago, Romey 1878 said:

Hamilton closing in now but I think he’ll find it extremely difficult to overtake Verstappen. 

Yup. What I didn't get was Lando in 8th (disappointing) not stopping late on for some softs when he was 40 seconds clear of 9th to go for fastest lap, in fact he had 30 seconds clear with ten laps to go, why not roll the dice then and see if he could get higher up? I'm still confused as to how Bottas passed him anyway, was miles behind but then closed under the virtual safety car (didn't think that was allowed). Also Sainz passed him off track and never gave the place back, despite being told to:dontknow:

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, Romey 1878 said:

Mercedes found a shit load of speed out of absolutely nowhere there. 

Bottas is on fire at the moment.

Should be a good battle between Mclaren and Ferrari as well. Danny Ric only .002 off Sainz but would probably prefer the tow off Gasly on the straight and Knick into 5th. 

Should be a cracking start to the race though 

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1 hour ago, Btay said:

Bottas is on fire at the moment.

Should be a good battle between Mclaren and Ferrari as well. Danny Ric only .002 off Sainz but would probably prefer the tow off Gasly on the straight and Knick into 5th. 

Should be a cracking start to the race though 

The two Mercedes need a good start and hope the Red Bulls have poor starts or they’ll be giving them tows down that straight. I won’t be surprised if there’s an early incident and a safety car. 

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5 hours ago, Romey 1878 said:

The two Mercedes need a good start and hope the Red Bulls have poor starts or they’ll be giving them tows down that straight. I won’t be surprised if there’s an early incident and a safety car. 

Agree. I hope Perez has a good race though and Ricciardo finishes in front of both Ferrari’s.

Verstappen just sounds like a petulant wanker on the radio after tsunoda & Perez went off track.

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I’ve been hearing what I say is a lot of negative punditry regarding the drivers championship, namely that Hamilton is in someways resigning himself to the fact he can’t win this year’s championship. If anything I believe the complete opposite he 100% believe’s he’s going to win and won’t stop fighting with everything he has in his arsenal, Verstappen has it all to do to win your first championship must be the hardest one of them all.  

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1 hour ago, Romey 1878 said:

Only after that?! :lol: 

He's a fucking entitled baby and it's only going to get worse once he's a world champion.

Nah I’ve always felt it but it’s getting out of control. I think there’s going to be something big between him and Hamilton in the race 

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11 minutes ago, Romey 1878 said:

I thought this might have been an entertaining race but it's been so boring.

Feel sorry for Bottas for a change as well.

Bottled the first corner, his on-board he was between Verstappen and Hamilton and when he hit the brakes they both flew past him, defined a decent driver against very good ones.

7 hours ago, Gwlad all over said:

Mind games and Hamilton is winning. I'd like to see a different world champion but if Verstappen succumbs to being wound up by Ham, it's over.

He can win all the mind games he likes, he was miles off winning on the track today.

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