Brexit...

[Matt]

1 hour ago, RPG said:

Labour will certainly lose a lot of seats (as many as 90) in the north to the brexit party as Labour 'Remain' MPs representing solid 'Leave' constituencies are booted out. I think Labour will also lose some seats to the Lib Dems in the south, meaning that Labour could finish third or even fourth behind Conservative, Lib Dems and Brexit Party.

If that is the case and the Conservatives don't get an overall majority then a Conservative / Brexit Party coalition is very likely imho.

But I agree with Rubecula's last post.

The antics of the Remain MP's now have little or nothing to do with brexit and are just being used to stifle effective government.

Let's get out of the EU and then negotiate further deals from there.

Just curious, and I know I’ll probably regret asking, but how long do you think trade deals take to negotiate? I’ve found some numbers from university studies and previous deals from other countries but I want to know what timeline leave voters think is realistic (ignoring all the internal turmoil that’s ongoing and going to continue) 

[MikeO]

 

[Palfy]

9 hours ago, RPG said:

Labour will certainly lose a lot of seats (as many as 90) in the north to the brexit party as Labour 'Remain' MPs representing solid 'Leave' constituencies are booted out. I think Labour will also lose some seats to the Lib Dems in the south, meaning that Labour could finish third or even fourth behind Conservative, Lib Dems and Brexit Party.

If that is the case and the Conservatives don't get an overall majority then a Conservative / Brexit Party coalition is very likely imho.

But I agree with Rubecula's last post.

The antics of the Remain MP's now have little or nothing to do with brexit and are just being used to stifle effective government.

Let's get out of the EU and then negotiate further deals from there.

You are not considering that in Tory seats with a small majority the vote will be split between them and the Brexit party, leaving the door open for Labour or the LibDems. 

Farage has already stated in strong terms that we would be better off staying in than accepting the deal brokered by Johnson, so I believe they will cancel each other out. 

We have just as much chance of a coalition government revoking article 50 or holding a 2nd referendum, so let’s not start counting your chickens just yet Rusty, this has got a lot mileage to run and could go either way. 

[MikeO]

11 minutes ago, Palfy said:

You are not considering that in Tory seats with a small majority the vote will be split between them and the Brexit party, leaving the door open for Labour or the LibDems. 

Farage has already stated in strong terms that we would be better off staying in than accepting the deal brokered by Johnson, so I believe they will cancel each other out. 

I think that the electorate will look beyond a single issue and I would fully expect the Tories to get the most seats unfortunately; I think you're overestimating the impact of the Brexit party (few of them can even spell "x" let's be honest). It'd just be a question of whether the nasty party will get enough for an overall majority, LibDems will make huge gains at their expense largely but Labour will lose a lot as well, to both Libs and Tories and maybe 10/12 to Brexit. Too close to call but Tories still the biggest party for sure. If they ditched Boris (or he did it himself as promised) and went in with an interim (and not clinically insane) leader like Clark they'd walk it.

[Palfy]

22 minutes ago, MikeO said:

I think that the electorate will look beyond a single issue and I would fully expect the Tories to get the most seats unfortunately; I think you're overestimating the impact of the Brexit party (few of them can even spell "x" let's be honest). It'd just be a question of whether the nasty party will get enough for an overall majority, LibDems will make huge gains at their expense largely but Labour will lose a lot as well, to both Libs and Tories and maybe 10/12 to Brexit. Too close to call but Tories still the biggest party for sure. If they ditched Boris (or he did it himself as promised) and went in with an interim (and not clinically insane) leader like Clark they'd walk it.

It will be interesting, but I think there is a breed of Tory voter that is a far right fascist and racist, sadly they align themselves with the Tory party because they are the only party that they feel any common ground with, but they will vote Brexit party because they will feel closer to them, these type of people would never have voted Labour or LibDem they despise these party’s, that’s why I see the Brexit party taking a fair percentage of Tory votes, in the same way as UKIP did at the height of their power. 

[pete0]

If you vote tory you are directly voting for a party that has murdered by neglect 100,000s of people in the last decade. 

Don't care what other policies of other parties you disagree with, surely the NHS is enough to go against them. 

[MikeO]

"Dear Jeremy,

Last week, I agreed a new Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. This is a great new deal..."

"If I win a majority in this election, we will then ratify the great new deal that I have negotiated..."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50175907

Except it's a totally crap deal which is essentially May's deal with a few bits thrown in to make it slightly worse. He's obviously borrowed Trump's 101 rhetoric style of self entitled bullshit.

Can we follow Trump further and have rallies chanting, "dig that ditch"? Plainly we won't (because we're not that low) but I'd be happy to wield a shovel personally. 

[Palfy]

23 minutes ago, MikeO said:

"Dear Jeremy,

Last week, I agreed a new Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. This is a great new deal..."

"If I win a majority in this election, we will then ratify the great new deal that I have negotiated..."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50175907

Except it's a totally crap deal which is essentially May's deal with a few bits thrown in to make it slightly worse. He's obviously borrowed Trump's 101 rhetoric style of self entitled bullshit.

Can we follow Trump further and have rallies chanting, "dig that ditch"? Plainly we won't (because we're not that low) but I'd be happy to wield a shovel personally. 

Are you trying to bring back dig for Britain

[MikeO]

2 minutes ago, Palfy said:

Are you trying to bring back dig for Britain

Odds to be had on rationing if/when we leave so planting a few winter veggies would seem a good move.

[rubecula]

1 hour ago, MikeO said:

Odds to be had on rationing if/when we leave so planting a few winter veggies would seem a good move.

bollocks  mike  lol  quick grab a net  a pig  just flew past...  Better odds on that being true mate  lol  but christ  man  you crack me up at times.

[MikeO]

11 hours ago, rubecula said:

bollocks  mike  lol  quick grab a net  a pig  just flew past...  Better odds on that being true mate  lol  but christ  man  you crack me up at times.

Not bollocks at all. It's a fact. Don't shoot the messenger.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/brexit/brexit-and-food-rationing-in-2019

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/brexit/what-will-the-uk-government-officially-ration-first-in-2019

[Palfy]

17 minutes ago, TallPaul1878 said:

West Ham fans???

[Palfy]

21 minutes ago, TallPaul1878 said:

Saying that, I've always had a problem with the label "far right". Right and left wing traditionally related to economic policy. A left wing government would increase taxes to fund social programmes where a right wing government would cut taxes and services. In this dynamic then "far right" would represent some sort of anarcho capitalism.

But most of the time "far right" refers to ultra-nationalists. Does this mean that "far left" are ultra-globalists?

Many people oppose globalism now and I believe we are entering a post-globalist world. It's my belief that globalism has been catastrophic to the environment and has robbed western nations of their traditional industries. Does that make me "far right"? Many of my economic opinions would be considered "left wing". 

As would mine I do consider myself left of centre, I would also dismiss the far left with as much passion as the far right. 
I am a committed Labour supporter born and bred thanks to my parents and the values they installed in me. 
I know that makes me sounds like a hypocrite with the way I came across with Rusty, but we are poles apart and he represents everything I dislike in the right, and without trying to sound like a working class warrior I will do what I need to do to fight the people who think they can prosper on the backs of the workers. 
Like the Jarrow marchers I will talk the talk and walk the walk no holds barred.

 

 

[Palfy]

1 minute ago, RPG said:

Not counting chickens at all. I think the pro brexit element of the electorate will ask themselves who is more likely to win in their constituency - Brexit Party or Conservative - and vote accordingly. I know some staunch former Labour supporters in Yorkshire who would have no issue voting Conservative if it helps deliver brexit. To use their words, 'Normal party political hostilities can be resumed once we have delivered brexit!'

I really don’t think there that clever, but if you truly believe that they are going to go to them lengths, wouldn’t it be easier to have a 2nd referendum to get the result they desire, and end all the speculation on whether it was the result people understood they were voting for. 

[Matt]

1 minute ago, RPG said:

Years, but, the deals are not getting any closer while we are still in EU are they. They will take as long as they take and we, and our children, will be better off in the long run for it. In the short term there will, of course, be some disruption, though nowhere near the scale that Project Fear would have you believe, and WTO terms are nothing to be afraid of.

Yes, years. We’ve got 8% “continuity deals” done odd in the last 3 years whilst being in the EU, so yes they are getting closer and the EU keeps making new ones that we would benefit from. So, considering there’s proof against the statement that the EU hinders making new trade deals and no guarantee of the future being in the countries hands, even “short term”, who’s really Project Fear?

[Matt]

Oh, and the EU represent nearly 50% of our exports. Any of those trade deals which will have to be negotiated will certainly not be in our favour.

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

[Matt]

Just now, RPG said:

Project Fear is the Remain camp who promised us 800,000 job losses immediately if we voted for brexit, an austerity budget and motley assortment of other disasters -  noe of which have actually happened.

We need to crack on with delivering what the people voted for.

Only the near half a million, meh. 
 

https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/

anyway, game time. 

[Palfy]

I can see a coalition with Labour and LibDems backed up by the SNP who will regain all the seats lost to the Tories and for good measure if required the DUP, let’s be honest they won’t get into bed with the Tories again after Boris’s betrayal. 
You never know we may even see a retraction of article 50 or at minimum a 2nd referendum whilst Boris is dying in a ditch. 

[MikeO]

16 minutes ago, Palfy said:

I can see a coalition with Labour and LibDems backed up by the SNP who will regain all the seats lost to the Tories and for good measure if required the DUP, let’s be honest they won’t get into bed with the Tories again after Boris’s betrayal. 
You never know we may even see a retraction of article 50 or at minimum a 2nd referendum whilst Boris is dying in a ditch. 

I can see a temporary agreement among the parties you mention but not a long term coalition, if it saves the country from hitting the self destruct (brexit) button all good. As I've said before those tempted to vote Farage will have trouble spelling "x" so they're going nowhere.

[pete0]

Think LibDems are geeing up to prop the tory party up again. Very strange tactics they've got atm,they don't seem to be very Liberal or Democratic at all.

[pete0]

https://news.sky.com/story/asda-refuses-to-remove-sack-threat-for-thousands-of-staff-over-compulsory-contracts-11845215?fbclid=IwAR0c38z_l9WlJdXMAzXNKNV4QUoaU_TT7f6Byb9p3p5TXQsIRR3UTzwHVGM

Asda trying to force contracts on their staff (Sainsbury's were already successful after being granted mostly by the tory party). Asda made £800m profit last year. That money should be getting spread between the staff rather than forcing worse contracts in them to increase your profit margins. 

 

[Palfy]

11 minutes ago, MikeO said:

I can see a temporary agreement among the parties you mention but not a long term coalition, if it saves the country from hitting the self destruct (brexit) button all good. As I've said before those tempted to vote Farage will have trouble spelling "x" so they're going nowhere.

Your right a temporary agreement will be more realistic than a coalition with the SNP and DUP, but they will come together to undo the Tories, you can even had to that the greens independents and Clyde Cymru. 
The war isn’t over the far right will be humbled. 

[MikeO]

1 hour ago, pete0 said:

Think LibDems are geeing up to prop the tory party up again. Very strange tactics they've got atm,they don't seem to be very Liberal or Democratic at all.

Don't see them taking that route again, it nearly destroyed them the last time and their remain position will be the polar opposite of the "new" Tories, who will all be "out" lemmings rather than the previous incarnations of the party who were allowed to think for themselves.

[pete0]

1 hour ago, MikeO said:

Don't see them taking that route again, it nearly destroyed them the last time and their remain position will be the polar opposite of the "new" Tories, who will all be "out" lemmings rather than the previous incarnations of the party who were allowed to think for themselves.

They're ran by a remain tory. They get to bargain for remain in return to voting all other things tory, win win for the secret blue ties hiding there. 

For me I just don't see why the LibDems have let them take control of their party. Other than remain I don't see any policies that align. 

[memmaclub2]

I love that there is a brexit thread only just seen this.

[MikeO]

3 minutes ago, pete0 said:

They're ran by a remain tory. They get to bargain for remain in return to voting all other things tory, win win for the secret blue ties hiding there. 

For me I just don't see why the LibDems have let them take control of their party. Other than remain I don't see any policies that align. 

Completely get the scepticism but if they can force some sanity into the in/out debate I'd vote for them strategically. Sadly I'm in a rock solid Tory seat so out of my hands (another reason why PR needs to be adopted).

[memmaclub2]

Just now, MikeO said:

Completely get the scepticism but if they can force some sanity into the in/out debate I'd vote for them strategically. Sadly I'm in a rock solid Tory seat so out of my hands (another reason why PR needs to be adopted).

Who is the Tory leader that has taken over.

 

[MikeO]

11 minutes ago, memmaclub2 said:

Who is the Tory leader that has taken over.

Don't understand the question, the Tory leader is Johnson, my local MP is irrelevant. 

[Palfy]

2 hours ago, MikeO said:

Completely get the scepticism but if they can force some sanity into the in/out debate I'd vote for them strategically. Sadly I'm in a rock solid Tory seat so out of my hands (another reason why PR needs to be adopted).

Same as me Mike I’ve got James Gray as my MP, what a wally he is. 

[pete0]

3 hours ago, MikeO said:

Completely get the scepticism but if they can force some sanity into the in/out debate I'd vote for them strategically. Sadly I'm in a rock solid Tory seat so out of my hands (another reason why PR needs to be adopted).

Politically I'm probably closest to Green, then LibDems but atm I do think Corbyn is the only real option especially if he can kick out the centralists. I'd love us to adopt a similar government to the Scandinavians. People orientated rather than the exploitation crap we have disguised as capitalism. 

3 hours ago, memmaclub2 said:

Who is the Tory leader that has taken over.

 

Jo Swinson.