Cornish Steve Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Very interesting discussion, so maybe I can jump in. Before I left Britain, I was an approved parliamentary candidate for the Liberal Party. This was before the merger with the Social Democrats and the fuzzy, ever-changing policies of today's LibDems. The party then was a blend of libertarian, green, devolved power, and pro-Europe. I knew David Steel and, in particular, David Penhaligon (who was a great guy). At that time, we would consistently win over 20 percent of the vote but about 2 percent of the seats - such is the fate of finishing second almost everywhere. Most of the Liberals I knew then were trustworthy people, and a couple of friends from college were elected. Today I would give the LibDems a wide berth, and no longer am I pro-Europe. Parents? My father, in many respects (hate to say it, but it's true), was the kind of person not to aspire to: mostly illiterate, a dockyardee (as people near Plymouth would understand), and very bigoted. He voted for the National Front (for those in the US, the NF was a collection of racist bullies). My mother usually voted Conservative, but based solely on who she liked and disliked ("that man has a funny smile - can't be trusted"). She was big admirer of Maggie Thatcher. Today, I would be really stuck. If there were such a thing, I'd be a cross between Conservative and Green, with a splash of libertarian opinions thrown in for good measure. I'm for the nationalist parties (fellow Celts), but I am very much anti-Labour. They are for the big companies, not the little ones; for the unions, not the entrepreneurs; for bureaucracy and rules, not free enterprise. I have never trusted them, and nothing I've seen recently changes my mind on that. As for UKIP, I can't stand them. They are rather like the Tea Party in the US and offer little more than slogans - which, unfortunately, does sway some people. Thank goodness for the "first past the post" system, because they'll get few seats despite winning a fair percentage of votes. If I had to predict the outcome: the SNP will cut big time into Labour seats in Scotland, to about the same extent that Labour will gain in England. The Welsh Nationalists should do well, and I think the Green Party may create a couple of surprises. UKIP will be third in terms of number of votes but will win only a handful of seats. The LibDems will be decimated. It will either be a coalition of Conservative/Unionist/UKIP/LibDem or of Labour/Nationalists/LibDem/Greens. I would prefer the former (despite my disdain for UKIP), but I suspect the latter will win out. The US should fear a Labour/Nationalist coalition because they will immediately throw out all Trident missiles and make a point of standing up against America around the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornish Steve Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 (edited) Maybe I can predict the outcome. Conservative 30% of votes (285 seats) Labour 31% of votes (270 seats) SNP 6% of votes (28 seats) LibDem 6% of votes (24 seats) UKIP 14% of votes (12 seats) Green 6% of votes (3 seats) Plaid Cymru (4 seats) DemUnionists (8 seats) Sinn Fein (5 seats) SDLP (3 seats) Other (8 seats) Tory/LD/Union/UKIP = 329 seats Labour/LD/SNP/SF/SDLP/PC/Green = 338 seats In other words, the LibDems, despite losing ground, will be king-makers. Edited May 7, 2015 by Cornish Steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 It would be nice if we could have a coalition with all of them and actually have them work together on some of the real points rather than the bickering and shit-slinging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Conservatives covered up Hillsborough, and blocked the information requests that would have helped people greave. If you are from Liverpool and vote for them you're a cunt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted May 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Maybe I can predict the outcome. Conservative 30% of votes (285 seats) Labour 31% of votes (270 seats) SNP 6% of votes (28 seats) LibDem 6% of votes (24 seats) UKIP 14% of votes (12 seats) Green 6% of votes (3 seats) Plaid Cymru (4 seats) DemUnionists (8 seats) Sinn Fein (5 seats) SDLP (3 seats) Other (8 seats) Tory/LD/Union/UKIP = 329 seats Labour/LD/SNP/SF/SDLP/PC/Green = 338 seats In other words, the LibDems, despite losing ground, will be king-makers. Think you're underestimating how many the SNP will get, be closer to fifty than twenty-eight I think; and UKIP won't get twelve, four if they're lucky (less I hope). Don't think the Greens will improve on their current one either, Labour.LibDem and tories you probably have about right. And Labour have said they'll keep trident, even though they initially said they'd think of dropping it from four subs to .three Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornish Steve Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 And Labour have said they'll keep trident, even though they initially said they'd think of dropping it from four subs to .three I was probably confusing about this. My assumption is that Labour will get into power only as part of an alliance with the SNP, and SNP's price for that alliance will be tossing out all Trident missiles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnh Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Just been to vote. The Monster Raving Loony Party are one vote nearer world domination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted May 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 I was probably confusing about this. My assumption is that Labour will get into power only as part of an alliance with the SNP, and SNP's price for that alliance will be tossing out all Trident missiles. No way Labour would accept a coalition/agreement on those terms imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornish Steve Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 It looks like the financial and currency markets have made their prediction: very nervous right now. That must mean they believe Labour will get in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowensda Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 It would be nice if we could have a coalition with all of them and actually have them work together on some of the real points rather than the bickering and shit-slinging. This. In its entirety. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted May 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Just been to vote. The Monster Raving Loony Party are one vote nearer world domination. So you voted for UKIP then . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted May 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 "Next PM" betting has swung a bit today. Started about even but by the afternoon Cameron was marginal favourite; I've just checked now and Milliband is slight favourite. Only 4/5 against evens for Cameron so still mighty close; looking forward to the exit polls at ten. No doubt the Tories will have most seats but I think they'll struggle to get enough backing, LibDems probably won't have enough this time and anyway I think the differences on welfare cuts could be a deal breaker even if they did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Romey 1878 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 I voted LibDem last time around, but after they capitulated on the thing that got them a big chunk of their votes and then became Cameron's bitch I'll never vote for them again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted May 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 I voted LibDem last time around, but after they capitulated on the thing that got them a big chunk of their votes and then became Cameron's bitch I'll never vote for them again. A lot of people agree with you but you have to wonder what the Tories would have done over the last five years without the LibDems to stop their worst excesses. Clegg did them no favours over tuition fees (assume that's what you're talking about) and never adequately explained himself on that; not sure why, a minority coalition partner is never going to be able to implement their manifesto. They had to compromise. He's made mistakes but I wouldn't call him Cameron's bitch or rule out voting for them personally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Romey 1878 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 A lot of people agree with you but you have to wonder what the Tories would have done over the last five years without the LibDems to stop their worst excesses. Clegg did them no favours over tuition fees (assume that's what you're talking about) and never adequately explained himself on that; not sure why, a minority coalition partner is never going to be able to implement their manifesto. They had to compromise. He's made mistakes but I wouldn't call him Cameron's bitch or rule out voting for them personally. They probably have curbed the Tories somewhat but I don't think they've done enough. They saw their opportunity for their first bit of power and it went to their heads. Backfired like because it probably means it'll be a long time until they get any power again. I know they had to compromise and I totally understand that, but when the thing they compromised on so massively is the factor that probably won them the majority of their votes and therefore gave them the opportunity to form a government it wrankles just a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted May 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Fucking hell, exit poll on the beeb gives the Tories 316. Labour 239, SNP 59, LibDems 10 and UKIP 2. Depressed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Romey 1878 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 (edited) I knew the horrible fuckers would get back in. The people will get the government they deserve. Edit - Miliband should resign being so far behind that lot despite the last 5 years. Edited May 7, 2015 by Romey 1878 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Tories only need 10 people to pass the line if exit polls are accurate, so UKIP + 8 of the 25 "others". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanmckenzieismagic Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 https://twitter.com/91killen/status/596208593558499328 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Slimy selfish twats, these lot will become the thatcher of my generation. Eastenders watching southern idiots brainwashed by rags. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted May 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Tories only need 10 people to pass the line if exit polls are accurate, so UKIP + 8 of the 25 "others". Which could be the DUP. Truly frightening scenario. Just have to hope the poll is wrong (though it was bang on last time). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MC11 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 I just don't understand how it can be that big of a margin.... Serious bellends voting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowensda Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 I don't get it. Watch the country suffer with a full conservative influence. London will want to declare itself an independent country soon and every other fucker outside of London will suffer. Bye NHS too. Twats. Hope things get better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowensda Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Controversy incoming. If Farrage was the Labour leader, they'll have walked it. Strong leader (Farrage), shit party (UKIP). And the reverse for the current Labour party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowensda Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Would have much preferred David Millaband. Big miss that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted May 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Controversy incoming. If Farrage was the Labour leader, they'll have walked it. Strong leader (Farrage), shit party (UKIP). And the reverse for the current Labour party. Really? Complete buffoon in my book. But can see he appeals to some; character led party. Good news is he may not win his seat and will (if he sticks to his promise) resign; then UKIP will happily be leaderless and consigned to history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MC11 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Voting in pencil Manual counting FFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowensda Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 I do like the idea of people voting Green and technically wasting their votes and killing trees. Ironic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Apparently overall turnout has been pretty low. I think electronic voting should be introduced at some stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MC11 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Why on earth in this day and age is there still a manual count? Prone to errors and fixing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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