holystove Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 38 minutes ago, Palfy said: But if we are not to stay in then it has to be a no deal. The thought of a half way house fills me with more dread than a no deal, stay or go and nothing in between because the in between will benefit the EU and hurt us. I see your point, but Norway and Switzerland are in a half way house and both were presented by prominent Leave campaigners as models for the future EU-UK relationship post Brexit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holystove Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Chach said: ... Does anyone east of Germany have any political clout? Yes they do. But as they don't care about Brexit they're not spending any political capital on it. 2 hours ago, Chach said: Imagine a political campaign run by a leader on the basis of "we will create 100,000 new jobs and grow the economy" with a caveat added that they may create no jobs and no growth, its fanciful to expect politicians to offer up the worst case scenario, and you know what, lets just for once in the whole debate give the voters some agency. I disagree with that comparison. A more apt one would be: Imagine a political campaign run by a leader on the basis of "we will create 100,000 new jobs and grow the economy". Then after he has won on that message, he actively pursues the opposite while still claiming a democratic mandate. Do you think Leave would have won if the prominent Leavers had said before the referendum what they did after? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 38 minutes ago, holystove said: Do you think Leave would have won if the prominent Leavers had said before the referendum what they did after? Seeing as were going to only respond to half the arguments, I'll finish with I don't think the main issue was even on what the deal would be for a significant number of leavers and it was a referendum by proxy on immigration. With hindsight I think leave was always going to win and would very likely win a second referendum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 3 hours ago, Chach said: You're addressing a different point, but why would Leave be warning of a no deal Brexit? Leave wanted to leave, that was Remain's job and the economic consequences of leaving were talked to death. Imagine a political campaign run by a leader on the basis of "we will create 100,000 new jobs and grow the economy" with a caveat added that they may create no jobs and no growth, its fanciful to expect politicians to offer up the worst case scenario, and you know what, lets just for once in the whole debate give the voters some agency. If you were worried about what deal you were going to get you put an x next to remain. Leave said no jobs would be lost and everyone will be better off. Oh and it'll be a smooth exit. Clearly they can't deliver on that. They won on broken promises and xenophobia. We're very close to a East Germany situation but you think that's okay as the people voted for it? Even though those people were tricked/mislead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, pete0 said: Leave said no jobs would be lost and everyone will be better off. Oh and it'll be a smooth exit. Clearly they can't deliver on that. They won on broken promises and xenophobia. We're very close to a East Germany situation but you think that's okay as the people voted for it? Even though those people were tricked/mislead. Again, you're guessing leave voters cared about those things but wheres the demonstration of that position? Leavers will say they can deliver it, they just need the chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 54 minutes ago, Chach said: Again, you're guessing leave voters cared about those things but wheres the demonstration of that position? Leavers will say they can deliver it, they just need the chance. Why would you not care about those things. What did they care about, just leaving for the sake of it? What were people voting for? I'd say the three biggest things were NHS, promise everyone would be better off, and xenophobia. They said we wouldn't lose jobs and that was just remainers trying to scare them. It wasn't, it was the truth. Just as the 1000s who lost their jobs. https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 2 hours ago, holystove said: I see your point, but Norway and Switzerland are in a half way house and both were presented by prominent Leave campaigners as models for the future EU-UK relationship post Brexit. They are but they also except the open borders, the Brexiteers in Britain don’t want to have the open border policy that was one of the main reasons most voted leave. I believe if we are not fully in or fully out the chance of finding a deal that is mutually acceptable to all is near on impossible. Lets sever our ties and start negotiations from the beginning of a new and different relationship, and if the damage to both parties is as bad as some think surely new deals will be easier form if we both mutually benefit from them. And if any party feels that they are doing just fine without the other then at least we know where we stand and we move on, because this stalemate if you like is holding everyone back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, pete0 said: Why would you not care about those things. What did they care about, just leaving for the sake of it? What were people voting for? I'd say the three biggest things were NHS, promise everyone would be better off, and xenophobia. They said we wouldn't lose jobs and that was just remainers trying to scare them. It wasn't, it was the truth. Just as the 1000s who lost their jobs. https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/ I'm not sure about that link mate, the compiler looks like he might have an agenda, doesn't seem like totally unbiased reporting https://twitter.com/mrhickmott Factcheck says employment has increased https://fullfact.org/economy/more-people-work-brexit-vote/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, Chach said: I'm not sure about that link mate, the compiler looks like he might have an agenda, doesn't seem like totally unbiased reporting https://twitter.com/mrhickmott Factcheck says employment has increased https://fullfact.org/economy/more-people-work-brexit-vote/ And what jobs are those? Most likely 2 people lose their full time jobs and then can only get part time work. Government then classes this as job creation and encourages big tory backers like Sainsbury's to do this as it makes their stats look better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 12 minutes ago, pete0 said: And what jobs are those? Pete, you claimed 1000's lost their jobs because of Brexit (which hasn't actually happened) a quick google will attest to a jobs boom in the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Chach said: Pete, you claimed 1000's lost their jobs because of Brexit (which hasn't actually happened) a quick google will attest to a jobs boom in the UK. A quick google will show people have lost their jobs https://www.google.com/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2019/06/06/ford-axes-bridgend-plant-warning-brexit-destroy-uk-car-industry-9832148/amp/ These jobs have been replaced with what? What is the booming industry? As far as I know the boom is in low paid shorter houred contracts. People are losing full time employment and having to take part time work with worse and worse conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, pete0 said: A quick google will show people have lost their jobs https://www.google.com/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2019/06/06/ford-axes-bridgend-plant-warning-brexit-destroy-uk-car-industry-9832148/amp/ These jobs have been replaced with what? What is the booming industry? As far as I know the boom is in low paid shorter houred contracts. People are losing full time employment and having to take part time work with worse and worse conditions. A quick read shows the headline was misleading. "The Welsh plant, which has been manufacturing engines for 40 years, has been under threat of closure for some time. This is in part due to falling demand for the two engines it produces, as well as low projections for the Dragon engine, which the factory was due to start making this year." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chach said: A quick read shows the headline was misleading. "The Welsh plant, which has been manufacturing engines for 40 years, has been under threat of closure for some time. This is in part due to falling demand for the two engines it produces, as well as low projections for the Dragon engine, which the factory was due to start making this year." So it's just a big coincidence the timing and all the car companies fucking off? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/business/brexit-vauxhall-uk-factory-ellesmere-port-cheshire-plant-no-deal-a9024836.html%3famp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/nissan-job-cuts-brexit-sunderland-plant-workers-china-a9018361.html%3famp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, pete0 said: As far as I know the boom is in low paid shorter houred contracts. People are losing full time employment and having to take part time work with worse and worse conditions. This is also demonstrably not true, wage growth is faster than inflation and full time work higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chach said: This is also demonstrably not true, wage growth is faster than inflation and full time work higher. https://mobile.twitter.com/peterstefanovi2/status/1091097560314310656 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 Just now, pete0 said: So it's just a big coincidence the timing and all the car companies fucking off? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/business/brexit-vauxhall-uk-factory-ellesmere-port-cheshire-plant-no-deal-a9024836.html%3famp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/nissan-job-cuts-brexit-sunderland-plant-workers-china-a9018361.html%3famp Are you actually reading these articles Pete or just googling closures? These are not helping your argument. Also, correlation is not causation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 25 minutes ago, Chach said: Are you actually reading these articles Pete or just googling closures? These are not helping your argument. Also, correlation is not causation. Are you? The Cheshire plant still employs 1,000-plus workers despite more than 650 job cuts since last year. Big fucking coincide then Any comment on the wages after watching the Peter Stefanovic vid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Formby Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 15 hours ago, Chach said: Boris knows the Europeans are shitting their pants at the prospect of a no deal Brexit, the leaders of the opposition and minor parties are actively reassuring the Europeans that they will legislate to stop that happening, Boris is giving himself some time to bully the Europeans into making concessions that the parliament will vote for. Whether they really are 'shitting their pants'' or not, you are entirely correct in saying the EU are playing a waiting game, hoping the Remain parliament removes Johnson's only serious bargaining chip. Whether you believe he really wants a no deal, or is using the threat of one to make a deal that has a chance of getting through parliament, the sad fact is we keep shooting ourselves in the foot time and time again. No one could negotiate a successful Brexit given the divisions in the country and in parliament. The single biggest mistake was not Cameron's (I think he had no choice), but May's. The moment Leave won, she should have gone cross-party and worked out what we wanted (could stomach) before approaching the EU. The second biggest mistake was holding a GE which wiped out her majority. She couldn't even foist her own deal on the house. I don't buy the ardent Remainers' argument that 17 million people were xenophobes and idiots. It's reductive, crass and plain wrong. Mud can be slung at both sides and it really doesn't matter any more. We are where we are. 17 million people did vote Leave. The referendum was won. The EU has never been sympathetic to the UK, partly because of our adversarial position on just about everything. We have always been unhappy members of the club. It is undoubtedly true they have played hardball over Brexit (partly, I believe, because of the domino effect). Again, that's fine. We are the ones who want the divorce (well, 17 million do). The question now is what to do. Preventing Johnson from trying to make a deal is going to result in what, exactly? If he doesn't want a deal and is deliberately taking us over the cliff? What, then? Do any of us really know what will happen? The doomsayers' economic forecasts have not so far materialised. Personally, I don't buy the Doomsday scenario. I think we would still work with Europe to mitigate the problems of transition. It is not in our interest or theirs to do otherwise. Maybe that's naïve, but time will tell. Chach, Palfy and Romey 1878 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 26 minutes ago, Formby said: I don't buy the ardent Remainers' argument that 17 million people were xenophobes and idiots. It's reductive, crass and plain wrong. Mud can be slung at both sides and it really doesn't matter any more. That's how most would describe the leave. Some leave voters may have had genuine reasons but a hell of a lot were racist xenophobes hiding behind the rediculous EU too straight bananas and other made up stuff that was apparently holding us back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 11 hours ago, pete0 said: Are you? The Cheshire plant still employs 1,000-plus workers despite more than 650 job cuts since last year. Big fucking coincide then Any comment on the wages after watching the Peter Stefanovic vid? Yes I am, you are using the threat of closure in a news article as evidence to back up your claim that "1000's people have lost their jobs". It doesn't take a Rhodes scholar to see the fallacy. The video demonstrates nothing (he provides zero evidence) other than after 10 years of austerity, wage growth off a low base is cold comfort for people doing it tough which is probably very true. It does nothing to demonstrate your claim that the Brexit withdrawal process has decimated jobs because it demonstrably hasn't. Those impacts will be post Brexit and will be easy to identify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 7 hours ago, Chach said: Yes I am, you are using the threat of closure in a news article as evidence to back up your claim that "1000's people have lost their jobs". It doesn't take a Rhodes scholar to see the fallacy. The video demonstrates nothing (he provides zero evidence) other than after 10 years of austerity, wage growth off a low base is cold comfort for people doing it tough which is probably very true. It does nothing to demonstrate your claim that the Brexit withdrawal process has decimated jobs because it demonstrably hasn't. Those impacts will be post Brexit and will be easy to identify. The original link I put names all the jobs lost if you scroll down. You claim employment is up yet haven't provided evidence of which jobs? What industry is booming? You said wages are up but they're still lower than 10 years ago. Stop reading the telegraph or the mail and give Peter Stefanovic a Google, he's got loads about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnh Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 On 31/08/2019 at 08:45, Chach said: You're addressing a different point, but why would Leave be warning of a no deal Brexit? Leave wanted to leave, that was Remain's job and the economic consequences of leaving were talked to death. Imagine a political campaign run by a leader on the basis of "we will create 100,000 new jobs and grow the economy" with a caveat added that they may create no jobs and no growth, its fanciful to expect politicians to offer up the worst case scenario, and you know what, lets just for once in the whole debate give the voters some agency. If you were worried about what deal you were going to get you put an x next to remain. Let's also see what the governments advice was prior to the referendum. (David Cameron - a Remainer' - speaking at Chatham House in November 2015.) 'It will be the final decision. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected - not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and no other referendum.' ' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 33 minutes ago, pete0 said: The original link I put names all the jobs lost if you scroll down. You claim employment is up yet haven't provided evidence of which jobs? What industry is booming? You said wages are up but they're still lower than 10 years ago. Stop reading the telegraph or the mail and give Peter Stefanovic a Google, he's got loads about it. All the links you've posted have been by partisan hacks, I scrolled down and its a joke by a joker. The very first check of his methodology falls over, Aviva 1800 job losses in England attributed to Brexit Reality 1800 WORLDWIDE in business as usual downsizing to reduce costs https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48538964 If you want data forgot the media and go direct to the source https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Chach said: All the links you've posted have been by partisan hacks, I scrolled down and its a joke by a joker. The very first check of his methodology falls over, Aviva 1800 job losses in England attributed to Brexit Reality 1800 WORLDWIDE in business as usual downsizing to reduce costs https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48538964 If you want data forgot the media and go direct to the source https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes People have lost their jobs and that's a fact. Call him a joker all you like those who have lost their jobs aren't laughing. I'll ask for the third time. What jobs have been created? What industry is booming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 52 minutes ago, RPG said: Foreign investment in UK Tech Firms at a record high. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/21/uk-tech-firms-secure-record-amount-of-foreign-investment Worried about property prices crashing? Don't be! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-28/investment-in-u-k-residential-property-up-150-despite-brexit Worried about UK going broke? Don't be! https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/13/eu-lose-500bn-uk-gain-640bn-no-deal-brexit-economist-claims/ Need some professional economic advice? Here it is! https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/29/uk-should-leave-eu-with-no-deal-says-former-bank-of-england-governor The time for debate, imho, was over long ago. We are leaving, it looks like it will be with a WTO deal and it provides exciting opportunities. It doesn't fit with the political ideology of some people but they know that a political argument will never fly so faux reasons why it is a bad idea are manufactured. Surely it is time for all of us to come together and to make a success of Brexit now. Faux reasons why it's a bad idea? Just look at May's attempt to get a deal to see why it's a bad idea. Just look at the lengths Boris Johnson is going to. The only driving force by Parliament to force a no deal or to leave at all is based on their own personal greed and nothing to do with the will of the people. The will of the people that currently looks to have swung. How will that investment swing once we're out of the EU? Not arsed about the housing market. Its artificially high thanks to the Gov not building enough. Just look at the big tory backers from the industry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, pete0 said: People have lost their jobs and that's a fact. Call him a joker all you like those who have lost their jobs aren't laughing. I'll ask for the third time. What jobs have been created? What industry is booming? It is a joke, the clown has Jamies Oliver's restaurants and Debenhams in there. Everything you need to know about job statistics is contained in this link https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete0 Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 19 minutes ago, Chach said: It is a joke, the clown has Jamies Oliver's restaurants and Debenhams in there. Everything you need to know about job statistics is contained in this link https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes I'm not asking for statistics. I'm asking you what jobs have been created, what industry is booming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, pete0 said: I'm not asking for statistics. I'm asking you what jobs have been created, what industry is booming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnh Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 2 hours ago, pete0 said: I'm not asking for statistics. I'm asking you what jobs have been created, what industry is booming? What is the youth unemployment in some EU member states? Greece, Italy, Spain. Take your time. (In modern times it is a scandal). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 44 minutes ago, johnh said: What is the youth unemployment in some EU member states? Greece, Italy, Spain. Take your time. (In modern times it is a scandal). Add Portugal to that as well and it’s 25% plus in each of those countries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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