Elston Gunnn Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 Update — 1. The 4 key states remain PA, GA, AZ, NV 2. Biden needs to win either PA or any 2 of the other 3. 3. Biden’s lead in both AZ and NV is slipping. If I had to guess, I’d guess Trump just might take AZ, while Biden holds NV. Just a guess. 4. Biden coming fast in GA. Trump’s lead there is about 18K, with 50-60K ballots yet to be counted. Biden will win roughly 2/3+ of those remaining ballots. So if he wins, say, 37K-18K, Biden wins GA. 5. Biden coming even more strongly in PA, and is likely to win solidly there. No guarantee, but likely. 6. Pretty much everything has to fall toward Trump for him to win. 7. Beyond this, fascist actions, including armed Trump supporters, are showing up in AZ to try to intimidate officials/workers trying to count ballots to provide a result. I repeat: the U.S. is having a fascist moment. I hope it does not turn into a fascist era. I am not using “fascism” as a label. I mean it literally. Matt, Sibdane and MikeO 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 AP has already called Arizona hasn’t it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elston Gunnn Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, Matt said: AP has already called Arizona hasn’t it? Yes, but perhaps prematurely. They will be embarrassed if Trump comes back to win. It would be an unusual mistake for the AP to have made. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Elston Gunnn said: Yes, but perhaps prematurely. They will be embarrassed if Trump comes back to win. It would be an unusual mistake for the AP to have made. They never declare unless it’s mathematically impossible though, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Matt said: They never declare unless it’s mathematically impossible though, right? AP declared Arizona yesterday morning (UK time) but the BBC didn't because they felt it was too early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elston Gunnn Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Matt said: They never declare unless it’s mathematically impossible though, right? You know, I really don’t know their standards. Nor what variety of data they rely on generally here. They may turn out to have called it correctly, but if not, they’ll be embarrassed and Trump will use this as example A of “media bias and fake news.” I’d guess there’s been a vigorous internal debate at the AP the last 24 hours or so. Also, I don’t think the standard is “mathematical impossibility.” I’ve seen an untold number of projections based on multiple complex data points other than mathematical impossibility. They know Candidate X might still win her contest if she took 100% of the remaining 64K votes, but she won’t win that 100%. Edited November 5, 2020 by Elston Gunnn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dunlopp9987 Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 Trump supporters in Arizona protesting yelling "count the votes!" while trump supporters in Michigan are yelling "stop the count!" Literally can't make this shit up markjazzbassist, Sibdane, MikeO and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sibdane Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, dunlopp9987 said: Trump supporters in Arizona protesting yelling "count the votes!" while trump supporters in Michigan are yelling "stop the count!" Literally can't make this shit up Facebook sure is a toxic place. A bunch of folks I follow are claiming that the "deep state" is behind Biden's resurgence. I'm about to delete that trash social platform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Elston Gunnn said: You know, I really don’t know their standards. Nor what variety of data they rely on generally here. They may turn out to have called it correctly, but if not, they’ll be embarrassed and Trump will use this as example A of “media bias and fake news.” I’d guess there’s been a vigorous internal debate at the AP the last 24 hours or so. Also, I don’t think the standard is “mathematical impossibility.” I’ve seen an untold number of projections based on multiple complex data points other than mathematical impossibility. They know Candidate X might still win her contest if she took 100% of the remaining 64K votes, but she won’t win that 100%. My understanding is that they never declare things until the data is clear, they don’t work off projections. Apparently they have made a couple of mistakes based on the data they had and immediately rectified it. They’re pretty much the best source for the election because of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornish Steve Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 23 hours ago, Palfy said: Will he live that long? He’s determined not to go even if he loses, for the Yanks who is responsible for making sure he leaves the White House if he loses, and will he still be in command of the forces if he refuses to acknowledge the result. His campaign manager just issued a weird tweet: "the president is alive and well." Palfy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 16 minutes ago, Cornish Steve said: His campaign manager just issued a weird tweet: "the president is alive and well." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markjazzbassist Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 Looks like Nevada is going to Biden. He might lose Arizona now though. He just needs to get Georgia or Pennsylvania and he wins. Both are attainable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elston Gunnn Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 hour ago, dunlopp9987 said: Trump supporters in Arizona protesting yelling "count the votes!" while trump supporters in Michigan are yelling "stop the count!" Literally can't make this shit up You’re right, can’t make it up. And we need to call it what it is, fascism in action. I would not propose to call all Trump supporters active, conscious proponents of fascism. But we do need to try to understand how widespread is fascism in Trumpism. Here’s my tentative first take. Trump and inner circle — fascists, grifters, liars, cheaters, scofflaws, white supremacists. There is absolutely nothing they will not do to retain power, now ominously including disrupting the counting of finished ballots and encouraging neo-Nazi militias to “stop Democrats from stealing the election.” Surrounding circle — witting Trump enablers, their latent fascist inclinations now brought to the surface. This group has called itself “conservative,” but has become deeply reactionary, backward-looking, intent on doing whatever it takes to return to manly white nationalism. This group includes virtually all (approximately 200) Republicans in the House of Representatives. It includes perhaps 1/2 of the Republicans in the Senate. It also includes the vast majority of Republican state legislators. Passive enablers of Trumpist fascism — remainder of Republican Senators, many of whom will criticize Trump privately, know he has authoritarian tendencies, but fear Trump voters, value their political careers more than democracy and their Constitutional oath. This group also includes high % of people who vote for Trump. Generally they avoid thinking and talking about about Trump’s character, focusing on this “policy” or that: abortion, Supreme Court, anti-immigration, deregulation, tax reduction, anti-environmentalism, etc. This group, in the tens of millions, knows almost literally nothing about how our political system has historically worked, what our Constitution says and means. They feel aggrieved by the drift of American culture over the last half-century and see Trump as their angry “NO!!!” So unsettled have they become, that they actually voted for Trump a second time. They have no memory of historical fascism. They have no knowledge or or interest in American history, much less European or world history, beyond shallow clichés — equality, land of freedom, greatest country ever, MAGA. Their willful ignorance has rendered them dangerously stupid to the whole world. Matt, dunlopp9987, MikeO and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markjazzbassist Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 If you check out fivethirtyeight it’s a website and blog run by statisticians and they are always super on it with elections. Due to the remaining ballots and Biden’s returns in those areas they believe Biden could win GA And PA. Arizona wouldn’t matter at that point. Sibdane 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sibdane Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 hour ago, markjazzbassist said: Looks like Nevada is going to Biden. He might lose Arizona now though. He just needs to get Georgia or Pennsylvania and he wins. Both are attainable. Interesting to see, because most of the news sources I'm looking at have "declared" Biden as winner of AZ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Elston Gunnn said: You’re right, can’t make it up. And we need to call it what it is, fascism in action. I would not propose to call all Trump supporters active, conscious proponents of fascism. But we do need to try to understand how widespread is fascism in Trumpism. Here’s my tentative first take. Trump and inner circle — fascists, grifters, liars, cheaters, scofflaws, white supremacists. There is absolutely nothing they will not do to retain power, now ominously including disrupting the counting of finished ballots and encouraging neo-Nazi militias to “stop Democrats from stealing the election.” Surrounding circle — witting Trump enablers, their latent fascist inclinations now brought to the surface. This group has called itself “conservative,” but has become deeply reactionary, backward-looking, intent on doing whatever it takes to return to manly white nationalism. This group includes virtually all (approximately 200) Republicans in the House of Representatives. It includes perhaps 1/2 of the Republicans in the Senate. It also includes the vast majority of Republican state legislators. Passive enablers of Trumpist fascism — remainder of Republican Senators, many of whom will criticize Trump privately, know he has authoritarian tendencies, but fear Trump voters, value their political careers more than democracy and their Constitutional oath. This group also includes high % of people who vote for Trump. Generally they avoid thinking and talking about about Trump’s character, focusing on this “policy” or that: abortion, Supreme Court, anti-immigration, deregulation, tax reduction, anti-environmentalism, etc. This group, in the tens of millions, knows almost literally nothing about how our political system has historically worked, what our Constitution says and means. They feel aggrieved by the drift of American culture over the last half-century and see Trump as their angry “NO!!!” So unsettled have they become, that they actually voted for Trump a second time. They have no memory of historical fascism. They have no knowledge or or interest in American history, much less European or world history, beyond shallow clichés — equality, land of freedom, greatest country ever, MAGA. Their willful ignorance has rendered them dangerously stupid to the whole world. Is history repeating it self in the USA have the Democrats and Republicans become the new Unionist and Confederate Parties. It use to be that who ever won the Presidency of the USA the whole country accepted the outcome and got behind the victor, whether Democrat or Republican to unite for the good of the country at home and abroad, not so now this feels as close to Civil War as you can get without taking up arms, where and how will this animosity end? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sibdane Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 39 minutes ago, Palfy said: Is history repeating it self in the USA have the Democrats and Republicans become the new Unionist and Confederate Parties. It use to be that who ever won the Presidency of the USA the whole country accepted the outcome and got behind the victor, whether Democrat or Republican to unite for the good of the country at home and abroad, not so now this feels as close to Civil War as you can get without taking up arms, where and how will this animosity end? I get the same feeling, Pal. Our country is very divided. It doesn't feel like there's much bipartisanship now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornish Steve Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 4 hours ago, markjazzbassist said: If you check out fivethirtyeight it’s a website and blog run by statisticians and they are always super on it with elections. Due to the remaining ballots and Biden’s returns in those areas they believe Biden could win GA And PA. Arizona wouldn’t matter at that point. Here's the site to follow. You can see instantly where things stand and what percentage of remaining votes Biden needs to win in each state. https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html Elston Gunnn and Palfy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holystove Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Biden just flipped Pennsylvania. Anxiety levels slightly going down. Sibdane, markjazzbassist and MikeO 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornish Steve Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Let Trump supporters have their way: STOP THE VOTE!! (Biden now leads in both Georgia and Pennsylvania.) Matt, Romey 1878, markjazzbassist and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 It's final according to the BBC (barring legal shenanigans). https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54836636 markjazzbassist, Matt and Romey 1878 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sibdane Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Hallelujah. So glad that orange bastard is going out and not in style. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Well done USA you have quickly righted a wrong, emotional time for you guys. markjazzbassist 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 41 minutes ago, MikeO said: It's final according to the BBC (barring legal shenanigans). https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54836636 although I fear the next several weeks will be even more toxic than usual. He’s going to try and fuck so much stuff up whilst he still can Romey 1878 and markjazzbassist 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Sibdane said: Hallelujah. So glad that orange bastard is going out and not in style. Now chase the prick for his millions of unpaid tax. markjazzbassist, MikeO and Matt 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sibdane Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 He’s such a little bitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, Sibdane said: He’s such a little bitch. I’m really trying hard to resist the urge to create a new account just so I can send him this: “baaaahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaahahahahahaaaahahaaaaaaa” 1/n Sibdane 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post dunlopp9987 Posted November 7, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 I've shed a few tears today. This has been a long, exhausting, emotionally draining 4 years. I wish it wouldn't have even been this close, but ya know, white supremacy. Now let's rally behind Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, flip that Senate in January, and FIX THIS BROKEN ASS COUNTRY. Sibdane, Palfy, MikeO and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 26 minutes ago, dunlopp9987 said: I've shed a few tears today. This has been a long, exhausting, emotionally draining 4 years. I wish it wouldn't have even been this close, but ya know, white supremacy. Now let's rally behind Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, flip that Senate in January, and FIX THIS BROKEN ASS COUNTRY. Now you can take your back your rightful place at the top of the list of countries who want to look after and improve the world dunlopp9987 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bailey Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 I still can't believe Trump got so much of the vote. I just hope he fucks off and doesn't try and linger around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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