Brexit...

[holystove]

Not this Leave supporter.

 

It looks like being a messy divorce because the EU is being petulent and arrogant and, generally behaving in a manner that persuaded us that leaving was in the best interests of our Sovereign United Kingdom and therefore comes as no surprise. There are some cool and mature heads within EU but whether they will be able to persuade the others within EU is very much in the balance.

 

Go ahead and make it difficult. You will find that the British are very polite and patient up to a generous limit, but once we are done with someone, or something, we are done with it for good. If the EU wants to go down that path then we will not back down one iota. It would be a shame if that is the way we go but we will have no choice unless or until the EU stops believing its own propaganda.

I get where you are coming from as what you describe is the general view of the Express, Breitbart, etc.. but the problem is that the view from this side of the Channel in the popular press is exactly the same, except write UK where you wrote EU.

 

Lets hope the negotiators at the table are more level headed.

[Guest rusty747]

I get where you are coming from as what you describe is the general view of the Express, Breitbart, etc.. but the problem is that the view from this side of the Channel in the popular press is exactly the same, except write UK where you wrote EU.

Lets hope the negotiators at the table are more level headed.

There are some things that are off limits. Sovereignty of the UK, including Gibraltar etc is top of that list.

Similarly, we need to ensure that relevant security information continues to be exchanged between western nations - but that could be done via interpol or whatever the EU calls it nowadays.

The status of EU nationals in UK and UK nationals within EU at the time of separation must be established and their existing rights protected. These rights should not be passed down to the next generation though imho.

 

It would help if the EU could stop thinking of itself as omnipotent. There is a world outside the EU and Brussels/Strasboug is not even close to the centre of it. The UK can, and if necessary, will, thrive without any trade with the EU. That would hurt EU in the long term but UK only in the short to medium term as the UK will no longer have to seek EU permission to trade freely and easily with non EU counties while the EU has to achieve concensus amongst the remaining 27 countries which history tells us is a long and difficult process more often than not.

 

We will be trading in huge volumes with non EU nations whilst vested interest groups within EU are playing politics with their veto until they can get what they want for their domestic electorate purposes.

 

There will undoubtedly be a certain amount of sabre rattling and posturing for domestic electorates taking place on both sides. It is important for wise heads to come up with a deal that is acceptable to UK - otherwise there will be no deal and that will hurt EU by far the most.

 

As you say, lets hope that cool, mature heads prevail.

Edited April 1, 2017 by rusty747

[johnh]

I agree with the above. I don't think it will take us 7 years to negotiate a deal with any country.

[johnh]

I predict that on this forum and around the country that the leave voters will with draw, more and more from the debate as time goes on, due to the fact they will start to see that they have fucked them selves and their families over, so will shrink into the background and hide.

Palfy, the latest poll puts those who want the Government to get on with getting out, at 70%. There are far more remainers getting behind Brexit than leavers having second thoughts.

[MikeO]

Palfy, the latest poll puts those who want the Government to get on with getting out, at 70%. There are far more remainers getting behind Brexit than leavers having second thoughts.

 

And we all know how reliable polls are .

 

Tory government...massively wrong.

Brexit ditto.

Trump likewise.

 

In fact if the pollsters predict anything now I'm immediately going to put a large wad of cash on the opposite result .

[Palfy]

There are some things that are off limits. Sovereignty of the UK, including Gibraltar etc is top of that list.

Similarly, we need to ensure that relevant security information continues to be exchanged between western nations - but that could be done via interpol or whatever the EU calls it nowadays.

The status of EU nationals in UK and UK nationals within EU at the time of separation must be established and their existing rights protected. These rights should not be passed down to the next generation though imho.

It would help if the EU could stop thinking of itself as omnipotent. There is a world outside the EU and Brussels/Strasboug is not even close to the centre of it. The UK can, and if necessary, will, thrive without any trade with the EU. That would hurt EU in the long term but UK only in the short to medium term as the UK will no longer have to seek EU permission to trade freely and easily with non EU counties while the EU has to achieve concensus amongst the remaining 27 countries which history tells us is a long and difficult process more often than not.

We will be trading in huge volumes with non EU nations whilst vested interest groups within EU are playing politics with their veto until they can get what they want for their domestic electorate purposes.

There will undoubtedly be a certain amount of sabre rattling and posturing for domestic electorates taking place on both sides. It is important for wise heads to come up with a deal that is acceptable to UK - otherwise there will be no deal and that will hurt EU by far the most.

As you say, lets hope that cool, mature heads prevail.

Spain can hold a veto on any deal with the U.K. if it feels that the Gibraltar sovereignty issue is to great to let go, forcing a hard Brexit which could cost the average family 10% of their income and the country billions.

I fail to see how a no deal will hurt the rest of the E.U more than us.

[pete0]

Spain can hold a veto on any deal with the U.K. if it feels that the Gibraltar sovereignty issue is to great to let go, forcing a hard Brexit which could cost the average family 10% of their income and the country billions.

I fail to see how a no deal will hurt the rest of the E.U more than us.

Its already costing us an extra 10% for everything in Europe.

[Guest rusty747]

It obviously is only a Spain issue which they feel so strongly about they demand the EU mention it in brexit negotiations. The EU, being consensus driven, likely couldnt get Spains OK on the response to May unless Gibraltar was included in it. Another example of how the EU is driven my its member countries.

Also wasnt Gibraltar 90% remain? One could say this reveals how this Tory government thinks.

Gibraltar was 99% remain. Remain in UK.

 

The EU should have told Spain that this matter is not under the authority of the EU and that Spain should resolve it directly with UK or to grow a pair of balls and take the case to the UN. Spain knows it has no case.

Edited April 2, 2017 by rusty747

[Guest rusty747]

Spain can hold a veto on any deal with the U.K. if it feels that the Gibraltar sovereignty issue is to great to let go, forcing a hard Brexit which could cost the average family 10% of their income and the country billions.

I fail to see how a no deal will hurt the rest of the E.U more than us.

Palfy, There is no hard or soft brexit. There is brexit.

 

Any deal that the UK may or may not choose to sign up to has to be right for UK or we will not sign. Sovereignty of any part of UK (including Gibraltar) is quite simply not up for discussion. To try to make it so is to have negotiations fail before they start.

 

Please explain how you came up with a figure of 10%

 

Please also understand that we are not leaving EU because of trade or economic reasons but because of federalism and its stealing away of UK sovereignty.

 

If it was purely about trade and economics we would probably not be having this discussion.

 

I think another point that is worth re highlighting is this. The UK is leaving EU not Europe. We are still happy to be a good friend to Europe, we just don't want to be married to it. The EU would be well advised to remember this (and, to be fair, I think Tusk does) before allowing any individual member states the opportunity to bring in issues which should have no part in UK leaving EU. To do so, risks destroying UK relationships with certain countries within Europe - which would be a shame, but Spanish opportunism will fail and will incur consequences.

Edited April 2, 2017 by rusty747

[Matt]

[Guest rusty747]

Brilliant. Satire sometimes is the best way to raise serious points.

[Matt]

Brilliant. Satire sometimes is the best way to raise serious points.

His coverage has been spot on in my opinion, for all the big events of the last 12-18 months

[Chach]

The UK can, and if necessary, will, thrive without any trade with the EU. That would hurt EU in the long term but UK only in the short to medium term

 

This is probably the biggest call I've heard so far. Def one for the vault.

[johnh]

Saw a video on You tube, Johnny Rotten supporting Brexit - must be right then.

[Palfy]

Saw a video on You tube, Johnny Rotten supporting Brexit - must be right then.

God save the Queen we mean it man, that was Pretty Vacant of me, well at least we've got Anarchy in the UK, well I've got to go still on my Holiday in the Sun

[Guest rusty747]

This is probably the biggest call I've heard so far. Def one for the vault.

Well, there is a big world outside EU and much of it has already declared an interest in trading with us. Boeing recently announced that it is moving its European HQ to UK. We just need May to grow a spine and stand up for UK in exit negotiations or have the balls to just walk away.

[Matt]

Roaming charges about to be abolished in the EU finally!

[MikeO]

Roaming charges about to be abolished in the EU finally!

 

So does that mean Brits will have to go back to paying them in a couple of years?

 

Meanwhile...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/item/b709255f-ce11-4ccc-bd44-45f976d503c3

[holystove]

Well, there is a big world outside EU and much of it has already declared an interest in trading with us. Boeing recently announced that it is moving its European HQ to UK. We just need May to grow a spine and stand up for UK in exit negotiations or have the balls to just walk away.

 

There better be a long line of countries willing to sign a trade deal on the day the UK leaves the EU, as the UK will loose preferential access to some 60 markets that the EU has trade deals with. On the first day of Brexit, the UK will have 0 trade deals. Of course this is all short term stuff.

In the long term noone can predict if economically, Brexit was a smart move.

 

To me it's not really about that though. Indeed, a main task of the EU is concluding trade agreements and integrating the Single Market, but it's also about furthering the values of liberal democracy throughout the world. It's why for example in the same week Liam Fox is meeting Duterte about future trade agreements with The Phillipines, the EU releases a statement it will freeze all trade-talks with The Phillipines because of Dutertes' record on human rights.

 

So if the UK gets trade deals with Saudi Arabia, Duterte, the Gulf states (naming countries that have recently gotten visits from the May and Fox and that don't have a trade deal with the EU), the UK might fare better economically, but I will not be particularly impressed.

[Guest rusty747]

We have already concluded many trade deals with Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia - mainly in defence/aerospace sectors that are worth billions a year. The EU didn't seem to raise any objections. We are also very active throughout other countries in the GCC area, including UAE and OMAN.

 

 

Quote from CEO of British Aerospace below relates to sale of 72 EUROFIGHTER Typhoon aircraft in 2006 and previously to sales of Tornado aircraft - another European joint venture aircraft.

 

 

Mike Turner, then CEO of BAE Systems, said in August 2005 that BAE and its predecessor had earned £43 billion in twenty years from the contracts and that it could earn £40 billion more.[2] It is Britain's largest ever export agreement, and employs at least 5,000 people in Saudi Arabia.[3]

Edited April 9, 2017 by rusty747

[holystove]

As your post makes clear:

1) the EU does not hold its members back from doing (international) deals in the areas where the member states retain competence

2) the UK already does deals with the dictatorial Saudi regime.

 

Coupled with other policy decisions like the intention to lower environmental standards to attract more investment, shows there is a real chance Brexit will be an economic success as the UK is willing to do whatever it takes.

 

I do hope there have been studies done by the Tory government that concluded increased trade with non-EU countries due to lowering environmental, moral, social standards will offset having to trade with the EU under WTO rules.

Edited April 10, 2017 by holystove

[Guest rusty747]

I obviously can't respond to your last sentence as neither of us knows the answer to the question you ask.

 

But the fact that you ask the question suggests that you intend to judge the success or failure of brexit on economic grounds.

 

That is not why the vast majority of brexit voters voted to leave. It keeps coming back to a concept that remainers seem to have difficulty in grasping - Sovereignty.

 

As it happens, I think the long term future of UK has far more potential than that of the EU but, even if I didn't think that, I would still be pro brexit.

 

To quote Michael Caine's thoughts on brexit 'I would rather be a poor master than a rich slave!'

[holystove]

The reason I only mentioned the economic aspect is because this current discussion started with Chach doubting your statement the EU needs UK more economically than the other way around.

 

And because there's not much to say if full control at the level of the nation-state is the most important issue. If that's the case Brexit is the only way to go, regardless of anything else. I do wonder how this concept of taking back control, will survive when the UK has to compromise on the international stage (concluding FTA's etc). I still believe British intrests were served best when the UK could use the EU to push its agenda. As the UK government stated in the Brexit white-paper: "Whilst Parliament has remained sovereign throughout our membership of the EU, it has not always felt like that".

 

However, if as you say, this sovereignty issue at the level of the nation-state is the reason why most people voted Leave, UK citizens should be wary of May abusing the Brexit-mandate to turn the UK into a de-regulated economy. 52% of a population includes people from all walks of life, not just "right-wingers".

[Guest rusty747]

The reason I only mentioned the economic aspect is because this current discussion started with Chach doubting your statement the EU needs UK more economically than the other way around.

 

And because there's not much to say if full control at the level of the nation-state is the most important issue. If that's the case Brexit is the only way to go, regardless of anything else. I do wonder how this concept of taking back control, will survive when the UK has to compromise on the international stage (concluding FTA's etc). I still believe British intrests were served best when the UK could use the EU to push its agenda. As the UK government stated in the Brexit white-paper: "Whilst Parliament has remained sovereign throughout our membership of the EU, it has not always felt like that".

 

However, if as you say, this sovereignty issue at the level of the nation-state is the reason why most people voted Leave, UK citizens should be wary of May abusing the Brexit-mandate to turn the UK into a de-regulated economy. 52% of a population includes people from all walks of life, not just "right-wingers".

Totally agree and May has to do something to include the remainers (being mindful that many left wingers in the electorate also voted for brexit) without budging on her 'brexit means brexit' statement. Not easy, I grant you but at least it's a difficult journey in the right direction.

 

I am hopeful that the days of, what I call, 'see saw politics' whereby we get a run of 2-3 leftist governments followed by a similar spell of rightist governments, with each wasting time, money and effort doing very little other than undoing the actions of the previous government are over. Coalition does not work as nothing gets decided, the EU proves that concensus only works if you have the patience of Job and that it is open to hijacking by tactical use of the veto in pursuit of national interests. So, the ideal, imho, would be a leadership that we can trust (not necessarily agree with of course) that can navigate us successfully along the road that a majority of the voting electorate has decided we shall go.

A very big ask, but still better than remaining in EU imho.

Edited April 10, 2017 by rusty747

[Bailey]

I must admit I have no confidence whatsoever in May to deliver a successful Brexit.

 

Saying that I'm not sure who I would have confidence in!

[Guest rusty747]

I must admit I have no confidence whatsoever in May to deliver a successful Brexit.

Saying that I'm not sure who I would have confidence in!

I have only limited confidence and trust in her too. But that is still a whole lot more confidence and trust than I have ever had in the muppets in Brussels.

[Chach]

Well, there is a big world outside EU and much of it has already declared an interest in trading with us. Boeing recently announced that it is moving its European HQ to UK. We just need May to grow a spine and stand up for UK in exit negotiations or have the balls to just walk away.

 

Yeah, there is definitely a big world outside the EU and the UK as a member of the EU already has free trade agreements with the biggest countries (read richest) outside it, so what makes you think the UK can negotiate a better deal on its own than as a part of the EU bloc?

 

What in your opinion does the UK have, with its relatively small economy, that the EU doesn't have that would make other countries disadvantage their own citizens in order to gain access to?

 

*Boeing aren't moving production to the UK, its basically a sales office.

[MikeO]

Yeah, there is definitely a big world outside the EU and the UK as a member of the EU already has free trade agreements with the biggest countries (read richest) outside it, so what makes you think the UK can negotiate a better deal on its own than as a part of the EU bloc?

 

What in your opinion does the UK have, with its relatively small economy, that the EU doesn't have that would make other countries disadvantage their own citizens in order to gain access to?

 

*Boeing aren't moving production to the UK, its basically a sales office.

 

He's said before Chach that he didn't vote out for economic reasons.

 

He'd rather be poor and in charge of his own destiny than be rich as part of a group.

 

To quote Michael Caine's thoughts on brexit 'I would rather be a poor master than a rich slave!'

[Chach]

 

He's said before Chach that he didn't vote out for economic reasons.

 

He'd rather be poor and in charge of his own destiny than be rich as part of a group.

 

 

Yeah my bad, posted before reading until the end of the thread.

 

The sovereignty argument is defeated by Brexit itself though isn't it, turns out the UK does make its own laws and can act as she pleases.

 

Sounds more like Nationalism to me.

[MikeO]

 

Yeah my bad, posted before reading until the end of the thread.

 

The sovereignty argument is defeated by Brexit itself though isn't it, turns out the UK does make its own laws and can act as she pleases.

 

Sounds more like Nationalism to me.

 

And in some cases racism and xenophobia, not that I'm suggesting for a moment that any of that applies to anyone on here.