Brexit...

[holystove]

 

He's said before Chach that he didn't vote out for economic reasons.

 

He'd rather be poor and in charge of his own destiny than be rich as part of a group.

 

 

Interesting article about that in Financial Times today.

 

May is wrong in pushing for "Global Britain" as Leave-voters don't want Empire 2.0, they want Nation 1.0.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a9c45baa-1dc6-11e7-b7d3-163f5a7f229c …

[johnh]

 

Yeah, there is definitely a big world outside the EU and the UK as a member of the EU already has free trade agreements with the biggest countries (read richest) outside it, so what makes you think the UK can negotiate a better deal on its own than as a part of the EU bloc?

 

What in your opinion does the UK have, with its relatively small economy, that the EU doesn't have that would make other countries disadvantage their own citizens in order to gain access to?

 

*Boeing aren't moving production to the UK, its basically a sales office.

 

The UK's 'relatively small economy' is the 5th/6th largest in the world. At least we wont take seven years to negotiate trade deals like the beaurocratic behomoth EU did with relatively small Canada and even that was nearly scuppered by the tiny Walloons.

[Matt]

 

The UK's 'relatively small economy' is the 5th/6th largest in the world. At least we wont take seven years to negotiate trade deals like the beaurocratic behomoth EU did with relatively small Canada and even that was nearly scuppered by the tiny Walloons.

indeed. 7 would be generous.

[Palfy]

The UK's 'relatively small economy' is the 5th/6th largest in the world. At least we wont take seven years to negotiate trade deals like the beaurocratic behomoth EU did with relatively small Canada and even that was nearly scuppered by the tiny Walloons.

If you think that having the 5th/6th largest economy in the world is something to shout about and be proud of, surely you should recognise that that achievement was made possible by 45 years of being a member of the E.U.

[holystove]

If you think that having the 5th/6th largest economy in the world is something to shout about and be proud of, surely you should recognise that that achievement was made possible by 45 years of being a member of the E.U.

 

I'll take this one johnh.

 

Quite to the contrary, Palfy. I think it's been made quite clear that in reality the EU has held the UK back for 45 years. If the UK managed to become the 5th/6th largest economy while under the rule of a malevolent dictatorial regime, there's no telling how big its economy would have been without the EU. Once freed, you will see, it won't take long before the UK is number 1 (or maybe 2, America First and all that).

[Chach]

 

The UK's 'relatively small economy' is the 5th/6th largest in the world.

 

That will slip a few places after the union breaks up though and trade conditions deteriorate.

 

 

At least we wont take seven years to negotiate trade deals like the beaurocratic behomoth EU did with relatively small Canada and even that was nearly scuppered by the tiny Walloons

 

The EU market is worth about 18 trillion USD to Canada's 1.5 trillion, take a wild guess who got their pants pulled down in that trade deal.

Its really not complicated, what country on the planet doesn't want access to the EU market, its 25% of the global economy.

 

You'll get a quickish deal with the EU mind, because you already do the bulk of your trade with them and the likes of Germany have large trade surpluses with the UK and they won't want German companies suffering but they'll make sure they come on top. The new deals will be a bit of slog IMO.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Chach

[holystove]

contrast with Dortmund - Monaco ...

 

[Palfy]

I'll take this one johnh.

 

Quite to the contrary, Palfy. I think it's been made quite clear that in reality the EU has held the UK back for 45 years. If the UK managed to become the 5th/6th largest economy while under the rule of a malevolent dictatorial regime, there's no telling how big its economy would have been without the EU. Once freed, you will see, it won't take long before the UK is number 1 (or maybe 2, America First and all that).

Been made quite clear by who, that is 100% a fictitious statement that could never be quantified, also to say not long after we leave E.U we will become the number 1 economy in the world is fascinating, please explain how that will happen, we will never get into the top 4 and have a greater chance of dropping out of the top 10.

[holystove]

Been made quite clear by who, that is 100% a fictitious statement that could never be quantified, also to say not long after we leave E.U we will become the number 1 economy in the world is fascinating, please explain how that will happen, we will never get into the top 4 and have a greater chance of dropping out of the top 10.

 

The discussion whether or not the UK would have been as economically succesful the last 45 years outside of the EU, or whether it will continue to be succesful once outside the EU, has been going on (on and off) for the last 55 pages of this thread and as far as I can tell noone has managed to substantially change anyone elses' opinion.

 

I tried, as a joke, to take the most extremist opinion expressed on here (opposite what you wrote) to show the pointlessness of trying to have the debate again. I apologize if that didn't come across clearly .

 

For the record though, I'm quite convinced life outside the EU is economically less advantageous (anecdotal evidence notwithstanding).

[Matt]

[johnh]

Been made quite clear by who, that is 100% a fictitious statement that could never be quantified, also to say not long after we leave E.U we will become the number 1 economy in the world is fascinating, please explain how that will happen, we will never get into the top 4 and have a greater chance of dropping out of the top 10.

 

'We will never get in the top 4 and have a greater chance of dropping out of the top 10'. That is 100% a fictitious statement that could never be quantified, please explain how that will happen.

[Palfy]

The discussion whether or not the UK would have been as economically succesful the last 45 years outside of the EU, or whether it will continue to be succesful once outside the EU, has been going on (on and off) for the last 55 pages of this thread and as far as I can tell noone has managed to substantially change anyone elses' opinion.

 

I tried, as a joke, to take the most extremist opinion expressed on here (opposite what you wrote) to show the pointlessness of trying to have the debate again. I apologize if that didn't come across clearly .

 

For the record though, I'm quite convinced life outside the EU is economically less advantageous (anecdotal evidence notwithstanding).

Sorry mate completely went over my head, should have got your joke when I read the post my first thought was Hollystove has done a complete U turn.

[Chach]

 

'We will never get in the top 4 and have a greater chance of dropping out of the top 10'. That is 100% a fictitious statement that could never be quantified, please explain how that will happen.

 

All the modelling points to the top 10 being dominated by currently emerging economies by 2050, not sure what superhuman powers you would be attributing the UK in a post empire, post brexit world to have them breaking into the top 4.

[johnh]

Chac, I wasn't proposing that we would break into the top 4, It was a quote from Palfy's post I was addressing, (which is why it was in inverted commas). We may not reach the top 4, I agree, but there is no way we will drop out of the top 10 either - Canada is 10th.

[holystove]

Isn't GDP per capita a much more relevant indicator of the economic success of a country rather than whether or not as a whole, it is one of the biggest economies? The second list is just a list of countries with biggest populations.

[Guest rusty747]

Totally agree that thete is little chance of anyone changing anyone else's opinion on this thread.

 

One thing that, I hope, can be accepted is that post brexit UK will not have to seek the unanimous approval of 27 other countries (which is about 34 different regional voting blocks) before signing any trade deals.

 

So, UK will be better placed to react, get in first where there is opportunity etc than it is now.

 

Not trying to turn this into an anti Europe crusade. I think most brexiteers are pro Europe (I certainly am) but anti EU. Ideally I would like to be an independent sovereign nation who is a good neighbour to Europe. But that takes two (or, in this case 28) to make that happen and, as the old saying goes, tall fences make for good neighbours.

[johnh]

Isn't GDP per capita a much more relevant indicator of the economic success of a country rather than whether or not as a whole, it is one of the biggest economies? The second list is just a list of countries with biggest populations.

Yes, I agree, though GDP per capita tends to be more a short-term indicator. For example, there isn't a GDP per capita measurement for the UK, post Brexit, as we are still part of the EU.

[Chach]

Isn't GDP per capita a much more relevant indicator of the economic success of a country rather than whether or not as a whole, it is one of the biggest economies? The second list is just a list of countries with biggest populations.

 

I think GDP per capita using purchasing power parity is the most useful, how much is less important than what you can get with it.

[holystove]

I agree on PPP being most useful in this situation because it's about trying to identify what happens to living standards in the UK post-brexit.

 

John is obviously right about there not being any stats about UK post-Single Market (for 5 more years?) .. basis for comparison right now:

 

UK is currently 25th (GDP (PPP) per capita) at 41k. Behind the likes of Ireland, Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Denmark, Austria, Australia, Canada, at the same level as France and Finland, and ahead of Italy, Spain, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand.

[Matt]

Honest question, but for those going on about sovereignty... can you explain what it means to you?

[Cornish Steve]

The reason I only mentioned the economic aspect is because this current discussion started with Chach doubting your statement the EU needs UK more economically than the other way around.

 

And because there's not much to say if full control at the level of the nation-state is the most important issue. If that's the case Brexit is the only way to go, regardless of anything else. I do wonder how this concept of taking back control, will survive when the UK has to compromise on the international stage (concluding FTA's etc). I still believe British intrests were served best when the UK could use the EU to push its agenda. As the UK government stated in the Brexit white-paper: "Whilst Parliament has remained sovereign throughout our membership of the EU, it has not always felt like that".

 

However, if as you say, this sovereignty issue at the level of the nation-state is the reason why most people voted Leave, UK citizens should be wary of May abusing the Brexit-mandate to turn the UK into a de-regulated economy. 52% of a population includes people from all walks of life, not just "right-wingers".

I'm most definitely not a "right-winger" but I supported Brexit. With respect, you are stereotyping.

[holystove]

I'm most definitely not a "right-winger" but I supported Brexit. With respect, you are stereotyping.

 

That's why I ended my post with "52% of a population includes people from all walks of life, not just "right-wingers",

[johnh]

Steve, to be fair, Holystove's comment was '52% of a population includes people from all walks of life, not just 'right wingers'. In fact, I would say that 'right wingers' were in the minority. Many traditional labour voters in the north voted leave.

[Cornish Steve]

Sorry. Then I misunderstood.

[Palfy]

Honest question, but for those going on about sovereignty... can you explain what it means to you?

That's strange no takers.

[Bailey]

Not necessarily sovereignty but it's our ability to control our own destiny.

[Guest rusty747]

That's strange no takers.

Give me a chance Palfy. Only just seen your comment.

 

To me, Sovereignty means UK being 100% in charge of making its own laws, changing its own laws where we see fit, control of immigration, able to conclude bilateral trade deals without having to wait for concensus from 27 other countries and not being held back and/or frustrated by other countries (incidentally, putting their own national interests ahead of the EU group in the process) tactical use of veto etc. In short, as Bailey said, being in charge of our own destiny and not being dictated to by Brussels/Strasbourg.

 

It also means establishing (re establishing?) our own national culture and cultures, being proud of what we stand for and setting a good example of leadership on the world stage. Leadership is not a popularity contest though and sometimes we have to be strong enough to say no.

 

It also means being a good neighbour to our European and global allies (whether they are in the EU or not) whilst always safeguarding our own national identity.

 

It means strong defence. Not just for the obvious reasons but also to instill a sense of discipline and responsibility in the younger generations and to show them that opportunity does exist to do good and that there are honest rewards for honest endeavour.

 

Sadly, much of the above has been sacrificed on the altar of political correctness, driven by active minority groups. I am in favour of minority groups having their say but not to the extent that the voices of the majority cease to be heard or listened to.

[MikeO]

Not necessarily sovereignty but it's our ability to control our own destiny.

 

This is where I fundamentally disagree with some, seemingly the majority; the definition of "our own".

 

For me that's the human race rather than those lucky enough to have been born on a small piece of rock that dropped off mainland Europe ten thousand-ish years ago due to an "accident" of nature.

[Matt]

This is where I fundamentally disagree with some, seemingly the majority; the definition of "our own".

 

For me that's the human race rather than those lucky enough to have been born on a small piece of rock that dropped off mainland Europe ten thousand-ish years ago due to an "accident" of nature.

me too

[Matt]

Give me a chance Palfy. Only just seen your comment.

 

To me, Sovereignty means UK being 100% in charge of making its own laws, changing its own laws where we see fit, control of immigration, able to conclude bilateral trade deals without having to wait for concensus from 27 other countries and not being held back and/or frustrated by other countries (incidentally, putting their own national interests ahead of the EU group in the process) tactical use of veto etc. In short, as Bailey said, being in charge of our own destiny and not being dictated to by Brussels/Strasbourg.

 

It also means establishing (re establishing?) our own national culture and cultures, being proud of what we stand for and setting a good example of leadership on the world stage. Leadership is not a popularity contest though and sometimes we have to be strong enough to say no.

 

It also means being a good neighbour to our European and global allies (whether they are in the EU or not) whilst always safeguarding our own national identity.

 

It means strong defence. Not just for the obvious reasons but also to instill a sense of discipline and responsibility in the younger generations and to show them that opportunity does exist to do good and that there are honest rewards for honest endeavour.

 

Sadly, much of the above has been sacrificed on the altar of political correctness, driven by active minority groups. I am in favour of minority groups having their say but not to the extent that the voices of the majority cease to be heard or listened to.

the majority of that we had anyway. The PC stuff i can agree with but that's not down to the EU. I do wish that people to chose to live in a different country would integrate, and a lot do.

 

Can't go into the detail I want because I'm on my phone, will come back when I get a PC