January Plans

[EFC-Paul]

If we were looking at that type of forward for a season or two it would have to be Dzeko 

One year younger one year left on his current contract and not on a ridiculous wage in today's world (£76k) also a better player than Llorente who's not bad either 

I'd much rather look at the long term but sometimes these kind of deals make sense 

[nogs]

3 minutes ago, EFC-Paul said:

If we were looking at that type of forward for a season or two it would have to be Dzeko 

One year younger one year left on his current contract and not on a ridiculous wage in today's world (£76k) also a better player than Llorente who's not bad either 

I'd much rather look at the long term but sometimes these kind of deals make sense 

Dzeko is a good shout too. Point is, people are throwing names like Werner and Immobile around - get off Fifa and get in the real world. We're a midtable Prem side with no chance of getting into the CL any time soon. We aren't competing at the top table when it comes to players we can bring in. Short term, top class players approaching the end of their careers can do a job for us while we spend the time scouting the rough younger diamonds who we think we can improve and make a difference longer term. 

[Bailey]

10 minutes ago, EFC-Paul said:

If we were looking at that type of forward for a season or two it would have to be Dzeko 

One year younger one year left on his current contract and not on a ridiculous wage in today's world (£76k) also a better player than Llorente who's not bad either 

I'd much rather look at the long term but sometimes these kind of deals make sense 

 

35 minutes ago, nogs said:

Yes. He's an ideal short term fix for what we need up front, a target man an proven goalscorer. His best day's might be behind him but he's got bags of quality

I think there is more chance of getting Llorente as he is apparently up for grabs. Im not sure what Dzeko's situation is? 

Do we want a slow target man type though? I think it would be 50/50. They would help us retain the ball better than we do but Im not sure they would suit us counter attack nor in our pressing game.

[Finn balor]

1 hour ago, nogs said:

Based on what? How much have you watched him play? 

Based on I don’t think he’s good enough. I’ve watched him enough to think he’s bang average 

[nogs]

11 minutes ago, Finn balor said:

Based on I don’t think he’s good enough. I’ve watched him enough to think he’s bang average 

Then I seriously question your judgement to be perfectly honest. He is in a different league to the three centre forwards we currently have. 

[nogs]

35 minutes ago, Bailey said:

 

I think there is more chance of getting Llorente as he is apparently up for grabs. Im not sure what Dzeko's situation is? 

Do we want a slow target man type though? I think it would be 50/50. They would help us retain the ball better than we do but Im not sure they would suit us counter attack nor in our pressing game.

I think the reason DCL has become the preferred centre forward is because Silva realises we need a focal point. I don't really think we do press from the front and if we do the front three aren't much good at it. We're certainly not scoring goals by slick technical passing through defences, I think someone strong in the air with an instinct for goal in the box is exactly what we need. 

[Btay]

3 hours ago, nogs said:

Dzeko is a good shout too. Point is, people are throwing names like Werner and Immobile around - get off Fifa and get in the real world. We're a midtable Prem side with no chance of getting into the CL any time soon. We aren't competing at the top table when it comes to players we can bring in. Short term, top class players approaching the end of their careers can do a job for us while we spend the time scouting the rough younger diamonds who we think we can improve and make a difference longer term. 

Why not have a go for them though? City were not a top table team when they got Robinho - he could have gone to any top team in any league ( regardless of how he ended up )

Aim as high as we can in my opinion.

[StevO]

We put way too many crosses into the box at the moment, it’s like DCL is on the pitch and he’s decent in the air so it’s the only route we go down. With the technical players we have like Richarlison, Gylfi and Bernard we really need to be passing into feet in the box, cutting back like we did under Roberto to make the most of our strengths. I don’t want to see another target man in there, stood waiting for crosses while people like Marguire and Evans head balls away for fun. 

[Finn balor]

11 hours ago, nogs said:

Then I seriously question your judgement to be perfectly honest. He is in a different league to the three centre forwards we currently have. 

And your perfectly entitled to do so, he did well at Bilbao and Juventus and then went to the mighty Swansea. Did ok there and has done nothing at spurs. Considering the amount of games spurs has the manager never plays him unless it’s against tranmere. I don’t see the point of a stop gap signing who is going through the motions. I want a quick dynamic forward who wants to make a name for himself 

[Matt]

2 hours ago, StevO said:

We put way too many crosses into the box at the moment, it’s like DCL is on the pitch and he’s decent in the air so it’s the only route we go down. With the technical players we have like Richarlison, Gylfi and Bernard we really need to be passing into feet in the box, cutting back like we did under Roberto to make the most of our strengths. I don’t want to see another target man in there, stood waiting for crosses while people like Marguire and Evans head balls away for fun. 

Bingo. We’ve got a talented target man, we need a goal scorer. 

[nogs]

7 minutes ago, Finn balor said:

And your perfectly entitled to do so, he did well at Bilbao and Juventus and then went to the mighty Swansea. Did ok there and has done nothing at spurs. Considering the amount of games spurs has the manager never plays him unless it’s against tranmere. I don’t see the point of a stop gap signing who is going through the motions. I want a quick dynamic forward who wants to make a name for himself 

Fair enough, but as our last two January signings at CF have been Niasse and Tosun, I'd be happy to see someone of a proven higher calibre come in, even if it is a stop gap until we can identify and land a long term solution. 

[nogs]

8 hours ago, Btay said:

Why not have a go for them though? City were not a top table team when they got Robinho - he could have gone to any top team in any league ( regardless of how he ended up )

Aim as high as we can in my opinion.

The Abu Dhabi Royal family are in another stratosphere wealth wise compared to Moshiri. 

[Matt]

11 hours ago, nogs said:

Then I seriously question your judgement to be perfectly honest. He is in a different league to the three centre forwards we currently have. 

Yeah, the reserves. Not based on talent, based on the fact he hasn’t played regularly in years 

I’m all for a stopgap solution if it makes sense, but he doesn’t. 

[nogs]

11 minutes ago, Matt said:

Bingo. We’ve got a talented target man, we need a goal scorer. 

If you play one genuine CF it's handy to have someone who can do both. Not essential but a nice bonus if you can get it

[Matt]

6 minutes ago, nogs said:

If you play one genuine CF it's handy to have someone who can do both. Not essential but a nice bonus if you can get it

Completely agree, but they’re few and far between 

[Bailey]

13 hours ago, nogs said:

I think the reason DCL has become the preferred centre forward is because Silva realises we need a focal point. I don't really think we do press from the front and if we do the front three aren't much good at it. We're certainly not scoring goals by slick technical passing through defences, I think someone strong in the air with an instinct for goal in the box is exactly what we need. 

Is DCL much of a focal point though? I am not sure he is really contributing a great deal and I dont think it is as much as Richarlison and Tosun can. I think he plays because Tosun is slow and Richarlison is a wide player by trade.

We do press from the front and I think they are decent at it. Richarlison, Bernard and Siggy are regularly making defensive plays.

4 hours ago, StevO said:

We put way too many crosses into the box at the moment, it’s like DCL is on the pitch and he’s decent in the air so it’s the only route we go down. With the technical players we have like Richarlison, Gylfi and Bernard we really need to be passing into feet in the box, cutting back like we did under Roberto to make the most of our strengths. I don’t want to see another target man in there, stood waiting for crosses while people like Marguire and Evans head balls away for fun. 

Yeh this could be a problem. I think I read somewhere that we rely heavily on our wingers to do everything from crosses but the two main wingers we use are finishers rather than creative players with then exacerbates the problem. You would hope with someone like Siggy in the side that wouldn't be a problem, especially when Bernard is also playing.

I think we need to start holding onto the ball more as we move up the pitch. DCL, Richarlison and Tosun are really hot and cold. The likes of Llorente, Dzeko and Giroud are better and maybe we could play off them more and create more of a threat through the middle, feeding in the Richarlison's and Walcott's to finish as they come off the wing.

I am not suggesting that I would take any of these players over a young, quick and technical striker but I dont think we are going to climb much higher up the table if our first choice striker is DCL.

2 hours ago, Matt said:

Bingo. We’ve got a talented target man, we need a goal scorer. 

Who is that?

[Matt]

17 minutes ago, Bailey said:

Is DCL much of a focal point though? I am not sure he is really contributing a great deal and I dont think it is as much as Richarlison and Tosun can. I think he plays because Tosun is slow and Richarlison is a wide player by trade.

We do press from the front and I think they are decent at it. Richarlison, Bernard and Siggy are regularly making defensive plays.

Yeh this could be a problem. I think I read somewhere that we rely heavily on our wingers to do everything from crosses but the two main wingers we use are finishers rather than creative players with then exacerbates the problem. You would hope with someone like Siggy in the side that wouldn't be a problem, especially when Bernard is also playing.

I think we need to start holding onto the ball more as we move up the pitch. DCL, Richarlison and Tosun are really hot and cold. The likes of Llorente, Dzeko and Giroud are better and maybe we could play off them more and create more of a threat through the middle, feeding in the Richarlison's and Walcott's to finish as they come off the wing.

I am not suggesting that I would take any of these players over a young, quick and technical striker but I dont think we are going to climb much higher up the table if our first choice striker is DCL.

Who is that?

DCL - a handful without being much of a scorer.  He wins headers, he pressures the defence, he brings people into play. He will get better with more experience 

[Bailey]

1 hour ago, Matt said:

DCL - a handful without being much of a scorer.  He wins headers, he pressures the defence, he brings people into play. He will get better with more experience 

Yes he is a handful, yes he wins headers and pressures but does he bring people into play? Its hard to find any hard evidence from a statistical point of view to say. I wouldn't say he is any more successful than the other strikers we have from what I have seen of him this season which is most games.

I have found a statistical comparison of Cenk v DCL (also against an average). Unfortunately it is too large to post on here however when specifically comparing their performances as strikers when starting games only in their time with Everton. Whilst DCL performs above expectation for actual assists per 90 minutes he performs well below average for actual goals per 90 minutes, expected goals per 90 minutes, actual shots per 90 minutes, expected assists per 90 minutes, actual passes that lead to shots per 90 minutes, and more interestingly for the total expected goals of every possession the player is involved in per 90 minutes (xGChain90) and the total expected goals of every possession the player is involved in without key passes and shots per 90 minutes (xGBuildup90)

Tosun is far better in all categories bar actual assists per 90 but he is below average for xGBuildup90, actual goals, expected goals, and shots per 90.

Richarlison is far lower in actual assists but a little lower than average for expected assists and passes that lead to shots but around average for all other stats.

Other strikers mentioned in this thread (measured on last 3 seasons, forward only, starting games)

Llorente's stats arent much better than DCL however they are substantially better in xGBuildup90, goals per 90 and expected goals per 90 albeit only above average in actual goals.

Dzeko outperforms average in every category albeit potentially skewed by playing in a different league. Immobile is the same.

Top 10 main strikers (measured on last 3 seasons, forward only, starting games)

Contrary to another thread, in the last 3 seasons Lukaku performs above average in almost all areas especially in the goal scoring categories.

Kane significantly outperforms average in all shooting/goals/build up categories.

Giroud outperforms average in almost all build up and assist categories. Morata is just above the average striker since joining Chelsea (albeit that will be skewed by his early form - this seasons stats are poor).

Lacazette outperforms average in everything. Aubamayang is the same in all goal/shooting categories.

Aguero also outperforms everything.

Firmino is the same in all build up and assist categories.

Vardy is just above average for the goal categories, average for the xGChain, expected assists but below average in other categories.

Callum Wilson is more or less bang on average, largely the same for King. Even Solanke far outperforms average in all buildup and passing categories albeit with only a 421 minute sample size.

Arnautovich is perfectly rounded, outperforming average slightly in the passing categories.

Deeney is rounded but below average.

Jimenez is also a far more complete player, above average in the assisting categories but below average in a couple of other areas.

Conclusion

DCL is performs far below average, Tosun a little below average and Richarlison about average when played up front. To my eye Richarlison is the biggest threat, then Tosun and the DCL.

All of the teams currently above us have at least 1 striker performing on or above average. The stats mirror the style of the team and player, ie Firmino contributing more in the passing and build up categories with someone like Lukaku contributing by putting the ball in the back of the net and getting into positions where he has a statistically better chance of putting the ball in the back of the net. The elite strikers are just that, above average in almost everything.

With all that being said, its clear that we need better than we have. DCL probably needs to go away and find a way to increase his threat as a striker and we need to be starting Tosun or Richarlison up front if we want to start creating and scoring more goals.

[pete0]

2 hours ago, Bailey said:

I have found a statistical comparison of Cenk v DCL (also against an average). Unfortunately it is too large to post on here however when specifically comparing their performances as strikers when starting games only in their time with Everton. Whilst DCL performs above expectation for actual assists per 90 minutes he performs well below average for actual goals per 90 minutes, expected goals per 90 minutes, actual shots per 90 minutes, expected assists per 90 minutes, actual passes that lead to shots per 90 minutes, and more interestingly for the total expected goals of every possession the player is involved in per 90 minutes (xGChain90) and the total expected goals of every possession the player is involved in without key passes and shots per 90 minutes (xGBuildup90)

One glaring omission from the stats (most likely as it's hard to quantify) is his off ball attributes. His hustle and bustle tires the defenders which helps force mistakes. Another off ball would be going for a header, he mightn't win it but the challenge might be enough to put off the defender and us win possession. Stuff like this is why moneyball doesn't work in football, Leicester was a fluke and Walsh is a fraud. 

[Matt]

Bailey, fair play mate but there’s too much for me to reply to on my phone. 

[Finn balor]

3 hours ago, Bailey said:

Yes he is a handful, yes he wins headers and pressures but does he bring people into play? Its hard to find any hard evidence from a statistical point of view to say. I wouldn't say he is any more successful than the other strikers we have from what I have seen of him this season which is most games.

I have found a statistical comparison of Cenk v DCL (also against an average). Unfortunately it is too large to post on here however when specifically comparing their performances as strikers when starting games only in their time with Everton. Whilst DCL performs above expectation for actual assists per 90 minutes he performs well below average for actual goals per 90 minutes, expected goals per 90 minutes, actual shots per 90 minutes, expected assists per 90 minutes, actual passes that lead to shots per 90 minutes, and more interestingly for the total expected goals of every possession the player is involved in per 90 minutes (xGChain90) and the total expected goals of every possession the player is involved in without key passes and shots per 90 minutes (xGBuildup90)

Tosun is far better in all categories bar actual assists per 90 but he is below average for xGBuildup90, actual goals, expected goals, and shots per 90.

Richarlison is far lower in actual assists but a little lower than average for expected assists and passes that lead to shots but around average for all other stats.

Other strikers mentioned in this thread (measured on last 3 seasons, forward only, starting games)

Llorente's stats arent much better than DCL however they are substantially better in xGBuildup90, goals per 90 and expected goals per 90 albeit only above average in actual goals.

Dzeko outperforms average in every category albeit potentially skewed by playing in a different league. Immobile is the same.

Top 10 main strikers (measured on last 3 seasons, forward only, starting games)

Contrary to another thread, in the last 3 seasons Lukaku performs above average in almost all areas especially in the goal scoring categories.

Kane significantly outperforms average in all shooting/goals/build up categories.

Giroud outperforms average in almost all build up and assist categories. Morata is just above the average striker since joining Chelsea (albeit that will be skewed by his early form - this seasons stats are poor).

Lacazette outperforms average in everything. Aubamayang is the same in all goal/shooting categories.

Aguero also outperforms everything.

Firmino is the same in all build up and assist categories.

Vardy is just above average for the goal categories, average for the xGChain, expected assists but below average in other categories.

Callum Wilson is more or less bang on average, largely the same for King. Even Solanke far outperforms average in all buildup and passing categories albeit with only a 421 minute sample size.

Arnautovich is perfectly rounded, outperforming average slightly in the passing categories.

Deeney is rounded but below average.

Jimenez is also a far more complete player, above average in the assisting categories but below average in a couple of other areas.

 

Conclusion

DCL is performs far below average, Tosun a little below average and Richarlison about average when played up front. To my eye Richarlison is the biggest threat, then Tosun and the DCL.

All of the teams currently above us have at least 1 striker performing on or above average. The stats mirror the style of the team and player, ie Firmino contributing more in the passing and build up categories with someone like Lukaku contributing by putting the ball in the back of the net and getting into positions where he has a statistically better chance of putting the ball in the back of the net. The elite strikers are just that, above average in almost everything.

With all that being said, its clear that we need better than we have. DCL probably needs to go away and find a way to increase his threat as a striker and we need to be starting Tosun or Richarlison up front if we want to start creating and scoring more goals.

Fuck me that hurt I gave up after a paragraph

[StevO]

Nice work Bailey. 

We need a striker. God I miss having Lukaku just putting the ball in the net when needed. 

[Bailey]

5 hours ago, pete0 said:

One glaring omission from the stats (most likely as it's hard to quantify) is his off ball attributes. His hustle and bustle tires the defenders which helps force mistakes. Another off ball would be going for a header, he mightn't win it but the challenge might be enough to put off the defender and us win possession. Stuff like this is why moneyball doesn't work in football, Leicester was a fluke and Walsh is a fraud. 

Very true. He definitely works hard and no-one can question his attitude, but this is the Premier League and we want to play in the Champions League and if your main attribute is hustle and bustle you are not going to be good enough. 

That type of striker is an asset in the Championship not at the level we want to be.

Superb pass today though!

[Bailey]

Interesting comparison between DCL and Tosun today seeing as they played a half each. 

DCL had no shots and 10 attacking touches in their half.

Tosun had 2 shots and 20 attacking touches in their half.

Tosun completed 13 passes compared to 6 from DCL albeit one of DCL's was an assist. 

Tosun had 15 of his attacking touches within the width of the 18 yard box (give or take), DCL had 5. 

On the flip side DCL gets an assist but Tosun had one good chance he probably should have worked the keeper on and over hit 2 fairly straightforward through balls.

What a choice to have!

[EFC-Paul]

Nice write up Bailey 

He's a funny one for me DCL I just see him purely as a fast hold up man that rarely uses his pace to his advantage 

I'm not sure he'll ever develop into a player that will add enough goals or assists to justify sticking with him

We need someone who can create their own space and moreso finish and as much as I disliked an awful lot about Lukaku the one thing the lad can do is run onto a ball and tuck it away and we miss that kind of forward massively

[Matt]

11 hours ago, Bailey said:

Very true. He definitely works hard and no-one can question his attitude, but this is the Premier League and we want to play in the Champions League and if your main attribute is hustle and bustle you are not going to be good enough. 

That type of striker is an asset in the Championship not at the level we want to be.

Superb pass today though!

Just curious, but would you share your definition(s) of target man, CF, striker etc?

[MikeO]

Think we should be looking at one or two Newport County defenders, forget Barcelona cast-offs. Joking aside they defended better against Leicester (admittedly a weakened Leicester) than we did.

[nogs]

20 hours ago, Bailey said:

Very true. He definitely works hard and no-one can question his attitude, but this is the Premier League and we want to play in the Champions League and if your main attribute is hustle and bustle you are not going to be good enough. 

That type of striker is an asset in the Championship not at the level we want to be.

Superb pass today though!

Bailey those stats are all well and good but the big one for a striker is goals. Tosun has scored twice this season, a goal every 300 minutes on the pitch. He isn'tt good enough. 

[johnh]

In the BBC live text it said the Tosun had a shot at goal from the centre of the penalty area,  It was saved in the middle of the goal.

The centre of the penalty area is approximately the penalty spot.  The save in the middle of the goal means he hit it straight at the goalie.  This sums up our problem, DCL is the same. We create the chances but we haven't got a striker who can find the net.  Shots are seldom 'on target' and when they are, they are saved in the middle of the goal.

[Bailey]

9 hours ago, Matt said:

Just curious, but would you share your definition(s) of target man, CF, striker etc?

Target man would be someone whom the ball forward goes through, whether it be aerially or on the ground. A target man isnt an out and out goal scorer, they are their to win balls played forward to them and bring others into the game.

CF and Striker are the same thing for me. CF probably has a different meaning for the older generation but a target man would be a type of striker.

1 hour ago, nogs said:

Bailey those stats are all well and good but the big one for a striker is goals. Tosun has scored twice this season, a goal every 300 minutes on the pitch. He isn'ttt good enough. 

Im not saying he is, I am just saying he is better than DCL. Tosun is a slightly below average PL striker whereas DCL is a well below average PL striker.

56 minutes ago, johnh said:

In the BBC live text it said the Tosun had a shot at goal from the centre of the penalty area,  It was saved in the middle of the goal.

The centre of the penalty area is approximately the penalty spot.  The save in the middle of the goal means he hit it straight at the goalie.  This sums up our problem, DCL is the same. We create the chances but we haven't got a striker who can find the net.  Shots are seldom 'on target' and when they are, they are saved in the middle of the goal.

There wasnt much else he could do with the chance. The ball was pulled back by Baines but it was quite a slow pull back and all Tosun could do was try and guide it at goal as he was fighting against the defender. It was a chance but it would have taken something special to score from that position.