Brexit...

[Matt]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49690618

[Chach]

17 hours ago, johnh said:

Steve, you say 'give me the status quo and get back to how things were a few years ago'.  That's the problem with the EU Steve, there is no 'status quo'.  It is a continuously evolving body.  The real problem is that they never produce a manifesto.  All the decisions are behind closed doors by the unelected elite in Brussels.  Just one example:  If your 'status quo' is the date of the referendum, the EU were lying through their teeth that there were  plans for an EU Army.  Even Britain's Deputy Prime Minister was saying an EU Army was a 'fantasy'.  We all know different now.

Steve, rather than concentrate on the status quo, tell me where you think the continuously evolving EU will be in 5 years time?

 

 

[Matt]

Landed back in Liverpool for the weekend last night, and was amused to see the overhead announcements on the motorway saying “transport documentation may change after 1st Nov. Please check”. 

Please check?! Please check what? Please check with who? I found it to be a brilliantly brief example of the whole situation 

[johnh]

3 hours ago, Chach said:

 

Chac, I think he is outgunned by Merkel and Macron.  It doesn't matter what the EU rules say, if Germany and France want it, it will happen.  The rules will change.

[StevO]

19 minutes ago, johnh said:

Chac, I think he is outgunned by Merkel and Macron.  It doesn't matter what the EU rules say, if Germany and France want it, it will happen.  The rules will change.

But if it’s law then it has to be followed. 
Germany and France don’t want us to leave, it’s not like they always get what they want. I’m baffled by your viewpoint on this one John, the idea they will just change laws at will because France and Germany say so is just ridiculous. 

[Bailey]

I honestly cant see how the issue of Brexit is going to be resolved.

 

Whilst I had a fairly low view of MPs before Brexit, it is at rock bottom now. Not only do I seriously question their intentions I also seriously question their competence. Watch any debate and you will see the same politicians spouting the same shite time and time again. They clearly don't listen to each other and they clearly don't do their homework. In the latest debates, I watched 4 or 5 MP's raise exactly the same point and not only was it tenuous at best but it was also completely void of any evidence or investigation. I would hope that over 3 years down the line, both sides of the argument would have clearly formulated plans but they don't. Whilst many will disagree, I actually applaud Johnson for being resolute in his persistence that we are leaving in October. In reality it is complete hogwash as Parliament was always going to stop it from happening, but at least he is advancing the debate, even if we aren't exactly advancing Brexit itself. I am also fully behind him reducing the time Parliament has to sit because what are they suddenly going to come up with now that they haven't in the last 3 years? It's complete and utter faux outrage and it shows them to be the primadonnas they are.

 

As far as I can tell the May deal is completely dead in any format. There is no real likelihood of a wide ranging deal being agreed between the UK and EU. The positions are too far apart and in truth the May deal is pointless as it restricts the perceived benefits of leaving the EU and offers us worse benefits that remaining within the EU. We either revoke Article 50 and stay or we leave with a "no deal" and announce it firmly to the EU. I put no deal in quotations because in reality I consider it extremely likely that a range of smaller deals with be agreed with the EU to restrict the damage it would cause to both sides. Reading through the main parts of the Yellowhammer document it would seem to me that the prospect of an overarching deal is stopping many smaller agreements being reached with the block or the individual member states. Either way this is the point where those blocking no deal need to be open and honest about their intentions in respect of resolving the impasse. The longer this delay goes on the worse it will be for this country, and I think that those pining for a second referendum are being naive if they believe it will bring an end to this saga.

 

The research shows that most people who voted in 2016 still largely hold the same view. Sure some will change but there is no evidence I have seen that suggests that the result will be decisive to either remain or leave. I would expect the vote to still be between the 53-47% range for either side. If Leave wins then what? Does anyone realistically believe that those who vote remain both in the public or in Parliament will then accept the result? Realistically the same arguments will apply. There are bound to be lies in the campaign, Leave still doesn't truly know what it is voting for so what changes? Why is there any guarantee that remain voters would suddenly accept the outcome of the 2nd referendum when they didn't with the first? What happens if it is 50/50 with only the tiniest of margins? Do we have to do another one? Then on the other hand what happens if Remain wins by a small margin? Do they expect Leave voters to accept that referendum when Remain didn't in the first? Given the arguments for remain voters, are the UK government to consider the view of the losing Leave voters when establishing the future relationship with the EU? If the relationship stays the same or if the EU evolves in a fashion that may be uncomfortable to the losing Leave voters is there to be another referendum? It goes on and on, it really does and the underlying issue will not be resolved. It should be worth noting that none of the parties advocating a second referendum have said what they will do after it.

 

When I mentioned earlier that those in Parliament backing a second referendum should be honest about their intentions that is because the reality is that they want to remain. I don't see any leave MPs advocating a second go, only those who wish to remain and I think that is a massive cop out. They shouldn't hide behind a second referendum knowing full well that they just want to remain. They just want to pass the buck. I strongly suspect that if MP's were asked to vote in private as to whether they would vote no deal, May's deal or vote to revoke A50 then the latter would win, and probably fairly comfortably. More MPs are coming out and stating their position to their constituents but most aren't.

 

I am also not completely convinced that a General Election will help. Whilst I understand the "tactics" behind the collaborators the only reason they don't want the GE now is because they fear they will lose. If they thought they could win they would have the 15th October GE and campaign on a revoke / 2nd ref / extension platform then they would have licked their lips at the idea of getting into power. This legislation they are after wouldn't matter.  If they think that delaying Brexit further will turn people against Johnson then I think they are going to be surprised because the Tory policy will be to drum it into leave voters and point the finger at those stopping Brexit being "done with". My suspicion is that the Tory vote will hold up better against the Brexit Party than the Labour vote will against the Lib Dems / SNP. I even think its entirely plausible that the Lib Dems will do better than Labour. I doubt that one party will have a majority and therefore more deals will need to be done and we are probably back to square one again.

 

It really is a complete and utter mess and I don't see an end in sight.

[MikeO]

25 minutes ago, RPG said:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1176731/BBC-News-Katya-Adler-latest-Brexitcast-EU-Brussels-Boris-Johnson

Grasping at straws if you demean yourself by linking the Express, "news" outlet totally beneath contempt. Fantasyland, you get more accurate news in the Beano.

[MikeO]

1 minute ago, RPG said:

Well, that is always going to be the argument from someone who doesn't have a counter argument to put against the article - no matter which newspaper it was published in.

Perhaps we should look at the message rather than the messenger.

I won't read the article because of the platform it's provided on so the point is moot.

If you can provide a reputable source reporting the same I'd be happy to respond. 

[Palfy]

1 hour ago, RPG said:

Well, that is always going to be the argument from someone who doesn't have a counter argument to put against the article - no matter which newspaper it was published in.

Perhaps we should look at the message rather than the messenger.

You are definitely the voter who Holystove was describing in his post of a few days ago. 

[Chach]

5 hours ago, RPG said:

Well, that is always going to be the argument from someone who doesn't have a counter argument to put against the article - no matter which newspaper it was published in.

Perhaps we should look at the message rather than the messenger.

haha listen to the Brexitcast they are quote mining this propaganda from, this is just terrible and should be seen for what it is, even by people who get sexually aroused by Nigel Farage.

[johnh]

18 minutes ago, RPG said:

If the article below is anywhere near accurate it looks like we are heading for a 'May light' deal and the DUP will not be happy. I guess it will depend on how many Labour 'rebels' might support such a deal.

https://www.ft.com/content/7517abfa-d638-11e9-8367-807ebd53ab77

 

To quote Chac,  RPG  The FT is Remainercast, so take it with a pinch of salt.

[johnh]

On 14/09/2019 at 12:40, StevO said:

But if it’s law then it has to be followed. 
Germany and France don’t want us to leave, it’s not like they always get what they want. I’m baffled by your viewpoint on this one John, the idea they will just change laws at will because France and Germany say so is just ridiculous. 

Steve, I can't believe you just posted that.  First, Germany don't want us to leave but France do.  Macron is desperate for us to go.  Second, the EU are already changing the law on veto's. It is not convenient for the dictatorship.  The EU is proposing a change to move to majority voting (which means Germany and France) in certain areas.  How long before it covers all areas?  First crack in the dam.

[StevO]

52 minutes ago, johnh said:

Steve, I can't believe you just posted that.  First, Germany don't want us to leave but France do.  Macron is desperate for us to go.  Second, the EU are already changing the law on veto's. It is not convenient for the dictatorship.  The EU is proposing a change to move to majority voting (which means Germany and France) in certain areas.  How long before it covers all areas?  First crack in the dam.

If you really think France (who sell a massive amount of produce and vehicles into the UK, the risk to the farming economy and to PSA is absolutely huge and will be financially detrimental to France if they have a loss of trade) want us to leave then I’ve not really got a logical response I can give. 

[Palfy]

1 hour ago, StevO said:

If you really think France (who sell a massive amount of produce and vehicles into the UK, the risk to the farming economy and to PSA is absolutely huge and will be financially detrimental to France if they have a loss of trade) want us to leave then I’ve not really got a logical response I can give. 

Johns right Steve the weasel Macron is desperate to make Paris the hub of Europe’s biggest Banking sector taking it away from London, that would be worth more to them then anything they sell to us, also he has desires on the pharmaceutical industry. 

That’s why one of the biggest losses if we leave is the money the City generates for the country, that loss could prove irreplaceable and effect everyone in the country with the loss of revenue for the government. 

Personally I cannot stand Macron like a lot of his own countrymen I think he’s a little cunt and that’s putting it mildly, him and his henchmen are the only EU government who hope we crash out with no deal, so they can prosper on our assets. 

[johnh]

1 hour ago, StevO said:

If you really think France (who sell a massive amount of produce and vehicles into the UK, the risk to the farming economy and to PSA is absolutely huge and will be financially detrimental to France if they have a loss of trade) want us to leave then I’ve not really got a logical response I can give. 

Steve, please read my posts more carefully.  I said 'Macron' is desperate for us to go - not 'France'.  Now that Merkel is on the way out, Macron thinks he is going to be top-dog in the EU. He doesn't want the UK in there queering his pitch.  His ambition is far more important than 'trade'.  Having said that, why should trade suffer either way?  It will only suffer if the EU whack tariffs on everything.

 

[johnh]

3 minutes ago, RPG said:

London will remain the Financial capital that it is now. That is one of the post brexit outcomes that I feel we can be certain of.

The risk to London as the Financial Capital is more at risk if we stay in the EU.   France and Germany have had their eyes on this for years. If we remain,  I can see the EU coming up with a 'Common Financial Services Policy'  much like the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy.  We will then be instructed to transfer a chunk of these services to Paris and :Frankfurt.   And just as the Fisheries Policy decimated our fishing industry, you can bet the City will come out of it not very well.  If we leave, then at least we can fight it.

[StevO]

11 minutes ago, johnh said:

Steve, please read my posts more carefully.  I said 'Macron' is desperate for us to go - not 'France'.  Now that Merkel is on the way out, Macron thinks he is going to be top-dog in the EU. He doesn't want the UK in there queering his pitch.  His ambition is far more important than 'trade'.  Having said that, why should trade suffer either way?  It will only suffer if the EU whack tariffs on everything.

 

He’s one man, what makes you think he will get his own way? He only has a limited shelf life in his position anyway. 
 

Why would trade suffer? If we aren’t in the EU there is massive risk to trade. We can’t negotiate with these countries alone, we can only come up with deals with the EU to protect them, and so far it’s still not happened. If there was an issue getting produce and cars into the UK it won’t help Macron stay in power, so I as much as he would like Paris to grow into a powerhouse on the world scale he also won’t want to cost millions of voters their jobs. Unless of course someone has direct quotes from Macron stating he would like us out, then I’ll agree.

[Palfy]

1 hour ago, RPG said:

London will remain the Financial capital that it is now. That is one of the post brexit outcomes that I feel we can be certain of.

Rubbish my daughter heads up a fraud department that a lot of the financial houses in the City use, she has already been warned that if and when we leave she could be made redundant or will have to relocate to another country. 

That is one reason I want to remain, like I said before I’m comfortable my children and grandchildren aren’t, you live and work in Dubai I believe if you have no plans on coming back in the near future, then for me you’re view is worthless because you won’t live with the pain. 

[Palfy]

59 minutes ago, RPG said:

I have heard both your arguments before Palfy. The first one is technically rubbish. The second fails to understand the rights of British citizens.

The city is far more at risk from staying in EU for reasons that Johnh has already given most eloquently.

As far as my personal circumstances are concerned, you are not aware of them all and, in any case, they are none of your business. Suffice to say that I do have a very vested interest in achieving what is best for UK - and that is most definitely out of EU.

You are a British citizen in name but not in substance, you are one of those people who chose not to live or work here, or pay into the system yet you want to preside over the future of those who do, it’s a no lose situation for you so you can take the road of uncertainty in the full knowledge that if it goes wrong you won’t be living with it. 

[Palfy]

11 hours ago, johnh said:

The risk to London as the Financial Capital is more at risk if we stay in the EU.   France and Germany have had their eyes on this for years. If we remain,  I can see the EU coming up with a 'Common Financial Services Policy'  much like the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy.  We will then be instructed to transfer a chunk of these services to Paris and :Frankfurt.   And just as the Fisheries Policy decimated our fishing industry, you can bet the City will come out of it not very well.  If we leave, then at least we can fight it.

John there was never a risk until we voted to leave, there is already a EU banking policy there has been for a long time my son in law is a freelance I T specialist in the banking industry, his role is to install new legislation which he says comes mainly from the EU, and keeps him very busy. 

It’s the financial houses themselves who have been saying if Britain exits the EU they will be looking to move their European head quarters to another EU country, for reasons that are more advantageous to them. 

Then step in Macron who is desperate for Paris to be the new financial capital of Europe because it’s riches are vast, in all fairness the Germans haven’t made bids to try and secure it, they genuinely want and need us to stay, if we leave there loss would still be greater but not so the French. 

 

[Palfy]

4 minutes ago, RPG said:

Like I said Palfy, you know nothing of my personal circumstances other than I live part of the time in Dubai. As it is none of your business, I choose not to enlighten you other than to assure you that I do 'pay into the system' to use your words and that I am directly affected by events in UK. I am most definitely not in a no lose situation and, even if I was (which I am not) it would not degrade my right to an opinion one iota.

If it makes you feel any happier, I have been an expat so long that I have been disenfranchised - despite continuing to 'pay into the system' but still do my best to influence friends.

Welcome back rusty 747 I had an inkling it was you, and that last paragraph confirmed it for me?

[Palfy]

5 minutes ago, RPG said:

It took you a while. Thank you. It all got a bit too personal last time with some people preferring to play the man rather than the ball. I did manage to redirect my energies most productively elsewhere though. I really enjoyed the sabattical and am happy to be back - provided we can play nice!

But, back on point, I am, in many ways, in a worse situation than many as I am directly affected by brexit but didn't even get a vote  to register my support for it.

It’s always good to have an old adversary back as a friend and not a foe. 

And your right things did and still do get very emotive with Brexit, and things get said that shouldn’t, and reading your posts got me thinking I recognise the style and content of these posts, then the light came on hence my last couple or so posts, and I got the reaction I wanted to confirm my thoughts. 

Rusty can you honestly believe after 3 years and 3 months we would still be no further forward?.

And let’s keep it a clean fight please

[MikeO]

2 hours ago, Palfy said:

Welcome back rusty 747 I had an inkling it was you, and that last paragraph confirmed it for me?

 

2 hours ago, RPG said:

It took you a while.

Well done Palfy! Admin/mods have known all along in fact due to access to Rusty's log in details but didn't feel it appropriate to "out" him. You win a major prize (not really).

[Palfy]

15 minutes ago, RPG said:

The reason, imho, that we are no further forward is purely down to a Remain dominated Parliament (including the previous PM) who seemed intent on kicking the can down the road indefinitely rather than actioning the will of the people as was promised by Cameron.

So, yes, there is a problem but it is not brexit as such. Rather it is Parliament. I understand the argument that asserts that Parliament is sovereign but in this particular case the government outsourced the Leave/Remain decision to the British people and Parliament would be well advised to respect that decision.

There is no doubt that an election is coming soon and people will vote largely (entirely?) on how fairly their current MP reflected their Leave/Remain vote. When that happens I can see the Tory party being the largest party but not quite (or just about) having an overall majority, the Brexit Party taking over 50 seats just from Labour in seats where the constituency voted Leave but the Labour MP voted Remain, the Lib Dems taking most (all?) of the Remain vote and the Labour party being absolutely annihilated into third or fourth place.

When you look at a Parliament made up from the above results a coalition of Tory/Brexit Party could get anything through Parliament so it would be wise of Parliament now (especially Labour Remain MPs representing Leave constituencies) to start respecting the referendum result.

I think remain or leave no one would disagree that Parliament intervened in Brexit, the argument is whether you believe they were right to do so, if they did so in the belief that they had the interests of their constituents as there priority, due to them possibly being misled then surly that’s what they should be doing. 

Lets be honest plenty of MPs have switched sides along the way, what Boris is doing is undemocratic sacking MPs for having a different opinion so he can bring on board MPs with a leave agenda in the hope he railroad his agenda of a no deal Brexit.

The most sensible way forward is to go back to the electorate with conditions. 

[MikeO]

Comedy figure, won't face parliament and won't face press; after his mate Cameron "outing" him as an an opportunist pure and simple earlier, but anyone with half a brain knew that already...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-49714338/brexit-press-conference-goes-on-without-johnson

[Matt]

40 minutes ago, MikeO said:

Comedy figure, won't face parliament and won't face press; after his mate Cameron "outing" him as an an opportunist pure and simple earlier, but anyone with half a brain knew that already...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-49714338/brexit-press-conference-goes-on-without-johnson

I want to green that but I cannot.

The “United” personified by no one; irony complete

[johnh]

21 hours ago, Matt said:

I want to green that but I cannot.

The “United” personified by no one; irony complete

Its already started to explode in Bettel's face.  A number of EU member states highly critical.  Maybe the EU will book him on a diplomacy course.

[MikeO]

16 minutes ago, johnh said:

Maybe the EU will book him on a diplomacy course.

Boris will no doubt be skiving in the bike sheds should such a course arise, anything but answering questions.

[Cornish Steve]

On 16/09/2019 at 05:20, RPG said:

It's no secret but I wasn't sure my old name would work second time around and 'The poster formerly known as Rusty747' seemed a bit too long to type each time I wanted to log in.

Nice to be back though. Having joined a couple of other sites during my sabattical I must be fair and say there is, generally, a higher level of debate and manners on this site than any other I have browsed.

Just not in this particular thread.

[Bailey]

What are people's thoughts on the Lib Dem stance to renege on Brexit if they won a general election? 

It's a bit of a contradictory stance but I think it is a smart one. Labour floundering, Tories will be full tilt Brexit so I expect them to sweep up a lot of the remain votes.