Brexit...

[Romey 1878]

30 minutes ago, holystove said:

I remember you said you voted Leave because you were anti-establishment. Do you still believe Leave is the anti-elitist side?

What kind of Brexit would you prefer if given the choice?

Did I? I feel like I voted leave because I want out of the EU, none of this out but in rubbish. Fully out and that’s that, I didn’t need any other option on the ballot other than leave or remain. You vote for one or the other and all that leave or remain entails. All these muppets moaning now saying “we didn’t know what we were voting for” need to be quiet. We voted either to remain or to leave. 

I want out because I don’t want ever closer union with the EU, and a vote to remain would’ve given the remit for that to take place. We’d have eventually been forced or obliged to change our currency to the Euro, which is something I’m dead against. 

I just want Brexit, Holystove. To leave the EU. So I suppose I prefer a “hard” Brexit? But I just see that as Brexit and exactly what I voted for. 

[Palfy]

10 minutes ago, Bailey said:

I didn't vote in real life, only on this thread, but my idealogy would be to leave however I just dont see how its achievable at the moment. Part of the reason I didnt vote is because I didnt trust any govt to deliver it properly and also (and mainly) because the implications were a complete unknown.

Given that we are supposedly leaving in less than 12 months we still have no idea of the full extent of no deal. The deal currently tabled is to basically stay in the EU, but without a seat at the table, and I expect that any Brexiteer would detest that half in half out proposal far more than being fully in the EU.

The biggest problem is that we have a whole Parliament full of useless MPs who dont know their arse from their elbow, who act like spoilt kids, and seem incapable of working together. Both the two main parties are fractured quite severly and the PM doesnt changes her mind from day to day. How can any future plan for the UK in or out of the EU be built upon such unsteady foundations. I would also add, that I dont even believe half of these MPs even know what they are voting for either. 

 

But what you have just described is probably most of the reasons why people who voted remain did so.

[Palfy]

5 minutes ago, Romey 1878 said:

Did I? I feel like I voted leave because I want out of the EU, none of this out but in rubbish. Fully out and that’s that, I didn’t need any other option on the ballot other than leave or remain. You vote for one or the other and all that leave or remain entails. All these muppets moaning now saying “we didn’t know what we were voting for” need to be quiet. We voted either to remain or to leave. 

I want out because I don’t want ever closer union with the EU, and a vote to remain would’ve given the remit for that to take place. We’d have eventually been forced or obliged to change our currency to the Euro, which is something I’m dead against. 

I just want Brexit, Holystove. To leave the EU. So I suppose I prefer a “hard” Brexit? But I just see that as Brexit and exactly what I voted for. 

All those so called Muppets who voted leave but now regret it were sold a load of lies by bigger Muppets, now it's clearer what leave actually looks like and it's nothing like Boris and Co said they rightly feel that they should be given the opportunity of redress, only a Muppet wouldn't see that as a valid point.

[Bailey]

30 minutes ago, Palfy said:

But what you have just described is probably most of the reasons why people who voted remain did so.

Maybe... maybe not. They weren't the highest reasons I heard on the countless debate programs I watched and articles I read. 

I still dont believe moving away from the EU is a bad thing and I think their attitude towards Brexit has re-affirmed my view upon that, however, a belief and the practicality of doing so are completely different things and pressing the countdown button, which again lets face it is down to the EU as well, without what seems to be a full analysis is not what you would expect of a major Kingdom such as the UK. 

I fail to see how May is going to last much longer, nor the Tories. I just hope Labour can find someone to replace Corbyn before its all too late! 

[Romey 1878]

43 minutes ago, Palfy said:

All those so called Muppets who voted leave but now regret it were sold a load of lies by bigger Muppets, now it's clearer what leave actually looks like and it's nothing like Boris and Co said they rightly feel that they should be given the opportunity of redress, only a Muppet wouldn't see that as a valid point.

These muppets should only have a problem with May’s plan to leave but not leave bollocks. If they voted to leave then leave means just that, to leave the EU. Getting all moany about certain things of leaving is weird. The vote wasn’t remain or leave bits and bobs of the EU. We can’t, and shouldn’t, be cherry picking which bits of it we leave. We leave, full stop. That’s what they voted for. 

[Matt]

1 hour ago, Romey 1878 said:

These muppets should only have a problem with May’s plan to leave but not leave bollocks. If they voted to leave then leave means just that, to leave the EU. Getting all moany about certain things of leaving is weird. The vote wasn’t remain or leave bits and bobs of the EU. We can’t, and shouldn’t, be cherry picking which bits of it we leave. We leave, full stop. That’s what they voted for. 

That would be suicide for the country, even if it was a simple as “just leave”. 

[rubecula]

I voted leave back then and I would not change my vote.  However I am no longer sure what other folks want.

[rubecula]

1 minute ago, Matt said:

That would be suicide for the country, even if it was a simple as “just leave”. 

can you explain why?

[Matt]

Just now, rubecula said:

can you explain why?

There’s 55 pages of explanation in this thread mate. Plus, it’s 2h30 and I really should be in bed. 

[rubecula]

no worries Matt you get your head down mate.  

[Matt]

3 minutes ago, rubecula said:

no worries Matt you get your head down mate.  

That was the plan, then this came along

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44864496

[rubecula]

1 minute ago, Matt said:

That was the plan, then this came along

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44864496

and so it goes on, and on...I voted to leave and I will defend that option with my dying breath but I will also defend the remainers position with equal ferocity  if I could only follow the arguments  yes I know I am an idiot at times but I know why I voted the way I did, I still do not understand why remainers voted the way they did.

[holystove]

9 hours ago, Romey 1878 said:

Did I? I feel like I voted leave because I want out of the EU, none of this out but in rubbish. Fully out and that’s that, I didn’t need any other option on the ballot other than leave or remain. You vote for one or the other and all that leave or remain entails. All these muppets moaning now saying “we didn’t know what we were voting for” need to be quiet. We voted either to remain or to leave. 

I want out because I don’t want ever closer union with the EU, and a vote to remain would’ve given the remit for that to take place. We’d have eventually been forced or obliged to change our currency to the Euro, which is something I’m dead against. 

I just want Brexit, Holystove. To leave the EU. So I suppose I prefer a “hard” Brexit? But I just see that as Brexit and exactly what I voted for. 

The anti-establishment thing I got from a post you made in which you said you hoped Brexit inspired other member states to 'Leave' as well.  Maybe I read too much into that.

If you don't want ever closer union between countries then indeed Leave was the way to go (if that outweighs the negatives).  Adopting the Euro can never be a legal obligation for the UK, but it might indeed have been politically pressured or it could have become economically necessary to do so at some point in the future.   

Ironically, I think the quickest way the UK will adopt the Euro is if it goes through with the clean Brexit you describe, because "rejoin" will probably mean Euro (if UK meets the criteria to use the Euro).

I'm not judging or necessarily trying to change anyone's mind, I was just interested.

[holystove]

7 hours ago, rubecula said:

can you explain why?

I'd reply but I get the feeling you don't read my posts .

[Bailey]

7 hours ago, Matt said:

That was the plan, then this came along

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44864496

Being in the Customs Union would be the worst case scenario regarding trade in my opinion. 

Either full free trade or no deal on the subject. CU means we have no control and no say over what agreements the EU sign us into. If the country they are trading with dont want to reach a seperate agreement with us, they will have access to our markets (via the EU) but we wont have full access to theirs (for goods and services on top of the EU arrangement). If we do try and reach an agreement with the other country on our own, we wont be able to increase/lower tariffs as they will have been set by the EU deal. The EU wont care about our interests in any deal they arrange.

Obviously being in the CU means we dont have to change anything logistically whereas being out of it will create a headache, but again, this is a headache they should have been planning for already.

[holystove]

36 minutes ago, Bailey said:

Being in the Customs Union would be the worst case scenario regarding trade in my opinion. 

Either full free trade or no deal on the subject. CU means we have no control and no say over what agreements the EU sign us into. If the country they are trading with dont want to reach a seperate agreement with us, they will have access to our markets (via the EU) but we wont have full access to theirs (for goods and services on top of the EU arrangement). If we do try and reach an agreement with the other country on our own, we wont be able to increase/lower tariffs as they will have been set by the EU deal. The EU wont care about our interests in any deal they arrange.

Obviously being in the CU means we dont have to change anything logistically whereas being out of it will create a headache, but again, this is a headache they should have been planning for already.

A Customs Union only covers goods, not services. 

The UK is primarily a services-based economy (80%) and inside a EU-CU the UK would still be able to agree free trade agreements on services (as you plan to leave the Single Market).   

Outside an EU-CU there is a hard border in Northern Ireland, EU-wide supply chaines would leave the UK, the Eurotunnel becomes a bottle-neck, etc.

Then again, remaining inside the CU would not really be Brexit 

 

[Matt]

10 hours ago, rubecula said:

can you explain why?

Well, I'll try and give a brief overview now whilst I pack for our vacation...

I said before the vote even (I think) that it was going to be near impossible to leave completely without massive detrimental impact, simply because we are so integrated. But, lets look at some of the key points, with a mix of fact and opinion:

1. Immigration - we already had complete and total control over immigration into the UK. We have an exception to the EU immigration rules, along with Denmark and Ireland - here's the proof. So, leaving the EU won't change a thing regarding immigration, it'll still be in our hands. As for illegal immigration, it's just that; illegal. That's not something the EU can be blamed for. In fact, we can blame May for that, as she was the main reason behind massive cuts and changes to border control staff and procedure as Home Secretary, undermining the ability of the departments to control immigration, illegal or otherwise. If you want someone/something to blame, you look at the companies/employers who choose the cheaper labour over local labour for their own profit and growth. There are ways to curb that within the UK, and still work with the EU's rules - I know this from experience after working and living in mainland Europe for 12 years now.  

2. Trade - There are hundreds (at least, if not more) of treaties, and then contracts, to sever; not just with EU countries but also with countries outside of the EU that are intrinsically linked with the EU. If we simply cut them, what will replace them? That's why I say it's suicide for the country - there is no plan, no future deals being shared, etc. and won't be until we have the Brexit plan in place with the EU. It takes years and years to negotiate these treaties and contracts, and was never going to be possible even if we had a clear Brexit plan in place before the referendum in a 2 year time line. My humble, non-expert, opinion, was that it would take 10-15 years to get the basics in place, 20+ before we've got everything covered. Of course, in that time, the world will change in ways we can't imagine, and assumptions of being such a "big trading partner" that everyone else will suddenly just flock to do business with the UK is disillusion at best, simply because we'd be going into the unknown, both in carrying out a leave process and world developments. Meanwhile, the EU will continue to open new trade routes and deals with other countries and continue to expand without us. See the proposed new Japan deal announced in the last week or so as an example.

3. Representation in the EU - that bag of dicktips Farage's speech about not knowing who the MEPs are isn'ttt all the EU's fault, it's an ignorance of the people and the failing of our own MPs and governments for not making it more transparent, on top of a ridiculously complicated parliamentary democratic system. The cynic in me thinks it's deliberately complicated to make it hard to understand for anyone who hasn't done a masters in politics. That said, there's no excuse nowadays to not know something; you simply have to take a bit of time and google. If  that's not for you and you want more information or influence, you contact your local MP and get them to push their party for change; whether that be transparency on the process, or dissatisfaction with the state of affairs. The political party then needs to take your input and put it into action (if there's enough support). However, all that is entrusting British politicians to not clusterfuck the whole thing, which is one of my biggest fears - without EU supervision, just imagine the chaos that would ensue if any of the political parties were left to their own devices.

If there's something I've missed, or something you want me to answer, let me know and I'll get to it when I can, but I think I covered the 3 main drivers behind the referendum. For those who still wouldn't hesitate to leave, I'm interested to know why.

 

 

[Palfy]

21 hours ago, Romey 1878 said:

These muppets should only have a problem with May’s plan to leave but not leave bollocks. If they voted to leave then leave means just that, to leave the EU. Getting all moany about certain things of leaving is weird. The vote wasn’t remain or leave bits and bobs of the EU. We can’t, and shouldn’t, be cherry picking which bits of it we leave. We leave, full stop. That’s what they voted for. 

Vote leave will be the PPI of the future with people making claims against the leave party for a mis sold future .

I voted remain but I don't want a watered down version of remain if we can't have remain in its entirety then it's has to be completely out, but it's fairly obvious to me that the powers to be know that no deal would be the biggest catastrophe to hit this country for decades, that's why they are giving ground and trying to make deals. 

When really they should be holding a 2nd referendum because the 1st was floored, with lies from both sides and funding deceptions.

 

[rubecula]

11 hours ago, Matt said:

Well, I'll try and give a brief overview now whilst I pack for our vacation...

I said before the vote even (I think) that it was going to be near impossible to leave completely without massive detrimental impact, simply because we are so integrated. But, lets look at some of the key points, with a mix of fact and opinion:

1. Immigration - we already had complete and total control over immigration into the UK. We have an exception to the EU immigration rules, along with Denmark and Ireland - here's the proof. So, leaving the EU won't change a thing regarding immigration, it'll still be in our hands. As for illegal immigration, it's just that; illegal. That's not something the EU can be blamed for. In fact, we can blame May for that, as she was the main reason behind massive cuts and changes to border control staff and procedure as Home Secretary, undermining the ability of the departments to control immigration, illegal or otherwise. If you want someone/something to blame, you look at the companies/employers who choose the cheaper labour over local labour for their own profit and growth. There are ways to curb that within the UK, and still work with the EU's rules - I know this from experience after working and living in mainland Europe for 12 years now.  

2. Trade - There are hundreds (at least, if not more) of treaties, and then contracts, to sever; not just with EU countries but also with countries outside of the EU that are intrinsically linked with the EU. If we simply cut them, what will replace them? That's why I say it's suicide for the country - there is no plan, no future deals being shared, etc. and won't be until we have the Brexit plan in place with the EU. It takes years and years to negotiate these treaties and contracts, and was never going to be possible even if we had a clear Brexit plan in place before the referendum in a 2 year time line. My humble, non-expert, opinion, was that it would take 10-15 years to get the basics in place, 20+ before we've got everything covered. Of course, in that time, the world will change in ways we can't imagine, and assumptions of being such a "big trading partner" that everyone else will suddenly just flock to do business with the UK is disillusion at best, simply because we'd be going into the unknown, both in carrying out a leave process and world developments. Meanwhile, the EU will continue to open new trade routes and deals with other countries and continue to expand without us. See the proposed new Japan deal announced in the last week or so as an example.

3. Representation in the EU - that bag of dicktips Farage's speech about not knowing who the MEPs are isn'tttt all the EU's fault, it's an ignorance of the people and the failing of our own MPs and governments for not making it more transparent, on top of a ridiculously complicated parliamentary democratic system. The cynic in me thinks it's deliberately complicated to make it hard to understand for anyone who hasn't done a masters in politics. That said, there's no excuse nowadays to not know something; you simply have to take a bit of time and google. If  that's not for you and you want more information or influence, you contact your local MP and get them to push their party for change; whether that be transparency on the process, or dissatisfaction with the state of affairs. The political party then needs to take your input and put it into action (if there's enough support). However, all that is entrusting British politicians to not clusterfuck the whole thing, which is one of my biggest fears - without EU supervision, just imagine the chaos that would ensue if any of the political parties were left to their own devices.

If there's something I've missed, or something you want me to answer, let me know and I'll get to it when I can, but I think I covered the 3 main drivers behind the referendum. For those who still wouldn't hesitate to leave, I'm interested to know why.

 

 

I voted to leave and I would do so again but you know that by my insistence in earlier posts. I have no idea why others voted to leave.

[Bailey]

12 hours ago, holystove said:

A Customs Union only covers goods, not services. 

The UK is primarily a services-based economy (80%) and inside a EU-CU the UK would still be able to agree free trade agreements on services (as you plan to leave the Single Market).   

Outside an EU-CU there is a hard border in Northern Ireland, EU-wide supply chaines would leave the UK, the Eurotunnel becomes a bottle-neck, etc.

Then again, remaining inside the CU would not really be Brexit 

 

Quite right, not sure why I even typed services! 

Is there any tariff/control over services? I would presume it would just be regulation and then the freedom of services would act as a bartering tool alongside freedom of movement and custom depending on what is being negotiated.

I am still not having this NI/UK hard border, its just a prime example of the EU playing hard ball. 

[rubecula]

3 minutes ago, Bailey said:

Quite right, not sure why I even typed services! 

Is there any tariff/control over services? I would presume it would just be regulation and then the freedom of services would act as a bartering tool alongside freedom of movement and custom depending on what is being negotiated.

I am still not having this NI/UK hard border, its just a prime example of the EU playing hard ball. 

I am unsure how the EU can enforce a hard border when neither we or the Irish want it

[Haiku]

1 hour ago, rubecula said:

I am unsure how the EU can enforce a hard border when neither we or the Irish want it

Well, EU have a say over their outer borders. I'm from Bulgaria, we are bordering nation and EU commissions are inspecting our border control regularly, especially since the mass emigration started. We are getting paid for improving our border facilities with Turkey as far as I know.

[Matt]

7 hours ago, rubecula said:

I voted to leave and I would do so again but you know that by my insistence in earlier posts. I have no idea why others voted to leave.

You’ve been consistent at least, but I still don’t understand why?

[MikeO]

11 hours ago, Palfy said:

When really they should be holding a 2nd referendum because the 1st was floored, with lies from both sides and funding deceptions.

I agree but your point is flawed.

4 hours ago, Matt said:

You’ve been consistent at least, but I still don’t understand why?

Stubborn old man syndrome.

[Newty82]

Ive not read all the above but in terms of Leavers regretting their vote...Ive read plenty of comments online from people who voted Remain who would now change to Leave due how the thing has been handled by all sides.

For a lot of people, it's been an eye opener as to how things REALLY work.

However, as always, some real shit gets spoken from firm supporters of both sides if the coin.

[johnh]

On 18/07/2018 at 10:05, holystove said:

A Customs Union only covers goods, not services. 

The UK is primarily a services-based economy (80%) and inside a EU-CU the UK would still be able to agree free trade agreements on services (as you plan to leave the Single Market).   

Outside an EU-CU there is a hard border in Northern Ireland, EU-wide supply chaines would leave the UK, the Eurotunnel becomes a bottle-neck, etc.

Then again, remaining inside the CU would not really be Brexit 

 

The UK have stated that they will not put a hard border in NI. If the EU  put one in it will destroy the Republic's economy.  The Eurotunnel becomes a bottle-neck both ways.

[Palfy]

6 hours ago, MikeO said:

I agree but your point is flawed.

Stubborn old man syndrome.

Well I feel like I've been floored with all the nonsense of the last couple years.

[Palfy]

3 hours ago, johnh said:

The UK have stated that they will not put a hard border in NI. If the EU  put one in it will destroy the Republic's economy.  The Eurotunnel becomes a bottle-neck both ways.

The Euro tunnel will soon be renamed the escape tunnel.

[holystove]

19 hours ago, Bailey said:

Quite right, not sure why I even typed services! 

Is there any tariff/control over services? I would presume it would just be regulation and then the freedom of services would act as a bartering tool alongside freedom of movement and custom depending on what is being negotiated.

I am still not having this NI/UK hard border, its just a prime example of the EU playing hard ball. 

There are no tariffs on services.  It's all about non-tarrif barriers.  The question is will a UK lawyer, musician, banker, etc still be recognized as such in the EU, and therefor able to sell their services?

Problem in NI is that *any* border infrastructure is a problem.  Ireland has put this issue front and center, not the EU Commission.  As the EU heads of State have ordered the Commission not to accept any border infastructure, they have to play hardball until Ireland softens its stance.

Why can't the UK and Ireland just keep the border open regardless what happens in negotiations?  Because that is illegal under WTO law (for both EU and UK).  The EU would loose its status as a Customs Union if it doesn't control its borders.

There is, by the way, no border in the entire world that is frictionless, not between US-Canada, Norway-EU, Switzerland-EU,.. nowhere.  I would not underestimate the issue of the Irish Border as just a negotiating strategy. There is already increased tension and nothing has changed yet.

[MikeO]

1 hour ago, Palfy said:

The Euro tunnel will soon be renamed the escape tunnel.

We'll call it Tom so the guards  Brexiteers won't know what we're talking about; I'll start on Dick in my garden when I get home, can someone with a big shovel volunteer to get Harry under way.

(Incidentally did you know that anyone who uttered the word "tunnel" in Stalag Luft III risked court-martial?)