Brexit...

[Matt]

 

[rubecula]

I am fed up with the way Northern Ireland is being reated and the EU's aggressive stance towards it.

[johnh]

11 hours ago, Matt said:

So I understand you; we agree Leave's sales pitch was based on possibilities that haven't happened and not fact, whereas the arguments made to stay are based on past events which are fact? That's been my point from the beginning, so I won't be forgetting that stance any time soon  

In the EU, past facts are not a guide to the future.  The EU is changing all the time.  I voted, back in the 1970's, to enter the European Common Market.  I never had a vote on what the EU has become nor do I recall seeing a manifesto.  Two things that can change facts from past events.  If we have a second referendum and vote remain then we will almost certainly be required to enter the eurozone.  The euro benefits one country, Germany, and most of the economic problems in the EU member states is down to the euro.  The second is the EU army.  How many billions will we have to fork out for this?  Mentioning the EU army, if you can stand it, go onto Youtube and Google  Farage v Clegg European army.  It is cringworthy.  A senior British politician (Clegg) Deputy Prime Minister and probably the most rabid Europhile in Parliament, rages against Farage, tells him that a European army is a 'fantasy'.  Now, as a senior politician and a leading Europhile, you would expect Clegg to have his finger on the EU pulse, so he was either lying through his teeth or he hadn't a clue what was happening in Brussels.  I don't think he was lying.  As with most things that happen in the development of the EU, it all happens behind closed doors, decided by the unelected elite.  A common complaint by remainers is that leavers didn't know what they were voting for.  The same is true of remainers, in spades.

[Bailey]

So what do we think is going to happen with the vote?

I can't see it getting through Parliament, and whilst amendments can now be tabled and voted upon, I don't see them getting through the EU27.

I am not sure another referendum is a good thing for the country but I don't know how else this mess will be resolved.

We could possibly see A50 delayed, a general election called but then both the Tories and Labour will be on leave platforms so unless every one votes Lib Dem, we will be back at it again in X amount of months time.

[Palfy]

1 hour ago, Bailey said:

So what do we think is going to happen with the vote?

I can't see it getting through Parliament, and whilst amendments can now be tabled and voted upon, I don't see them getting through the EU27.

I am not sure another referendum is a good thing for the country but I don't know how else this mess will be resolved.

We could possibly see A50 delayed, a general election called but then both the Tories and Labour will be on leave platforms so unless every one votes Lib Dem, we will be back at it again in X amount of months time.

If there was a general election I think that if Corbyn and Labour thought that running with a new vote on Europe would get them into power they would run with it.

Unfortunately both parties are using Brexit as a party political broadcast for themselves to get elected in stead of working together for a better out come.

[holystove]

14 hours ago, johnh said:

In the EU, past facts are not a guide to the future.  The EU is changing all the time.  I voted, back in the 1970's, to enter the European Common Market.  I never had a vote on what the EU has become nor do I recall seeing a manifesto.  Two things that can change facts from past events.  If we have a second referendum and vote remain then we will almost certainly be required to enter the eurozone.  The euro benefits one country, Germany, and most of the economic problems in the EU member states is down to the euro.  The second is the EU army.  How many billions will we have to fork out for this?  Mentioning the EU army, if you can stand it, go onto Youtube and Google  Farage v Clegg European army.  It is cringworthy.  A senior British politician (Clegg) Deputy Prime Minister and probably the most rabid Europhile in Parliament, rages against Farage, tells him that a European army is a 'fantasy'.  Now, as a senior politician and a leading Europhile, you would expect Clegg to have his finger on the EU pulse, so he was either lying through his teeth or he hadn't a clue what was happening in Brussels.  I don't think he was lying.  As with most things that happen in the development of the EU, it all happens behind closed doors, decided by the unelected elite.  A common complaint by remainers is that leavers didn't know what they were voting for.  The same is true of remainers, in spades.

I understand you get most of your information from reading The Daily Telegraph.  The Europe editor for The Telegraph, Peter Foster, is one of the best (informed) journalists out there; I cannot recommend enough that you read his articles.  

For the record:  if the UK remains, it will never have to join the EUR as it will remain on current terms with its opt-outs.  If the UK rejoins at a later stage, technically there is an obligation to eventually adopt the EUR.  However it is still a sovereign right for the member state to choose when to do this.  Sweden for example meets all the EUR-criteria but chooses to keep its own currency.    (by the way, a lot of economists claim UK would have benefited just as much from the EUR as Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, etc have).

As for the EU army..  there is currently more military cooperation between the UK and France than there is between EU member states.  Why is there no outrage of an Anglo-Frankish army?  Is there fear that Macron will draft English youth to fight his battles?   It is so easy to stir up fear on this issue...   EU military cooperation is very limited (coordinating purchases at an EU level, etc.) and subject to a veto from every member state. 

[holystove]

12 hours ago, Bailey said:

So what do we think is going to happen with the vote?

I can't see it getting through Parliament, and whilst amendments can now be tabled and voted upon, I don't see them getting through the EU27.

I am not sure another referendum is a good thing for the country but I don't know how else this mess will be resolved.

We could possibly see A50 delayed, a general election called but then both the Tories and Labour will be on leave platforms so unless every one votes Lib Dem, we will be back at it again in X amount of months time.

The parallels with Greece are uncanny, so if we take Greece 2015 as a guide it is likely that the UK will reject the deal it currently has negotiated only to have to accept a worse deal at the last moment in March/April 2019.

[Matt]

6 minutes ago, holystove said:

I understand you get most of your information from reading The Daily Telegraph.  The Europe editor for The Telegraph, Peter Foster, is one of the best (informed) journalists out there; I cannot recommend enough that you read his articles.  Given your post(s) I assume you don't read him now.

For the record:  if the UK remains, it will never have to join the EUR as it will remain on current terms with its opt-outs.  If the UK rejoins at a later stage, technically there is an obligation to eventually adopt the EUR.  However it is still a sovereign right for the member state to choose when to do this.  Sweden for example meets all the EUR-criteria but chooses to keep its own currency.    (by the way, a lot of economists claim UK would have benefited just as much from the EUR as Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, etc have).

As for the EU army..  there is currently more military cooperation between the UK and France than there is between EU member states.  Why is there no outrage of an Anglo-Frankish army?  Is there fear that Macron will draft English youth to fight his battles?   It is so easy to stir up fear on this issue...   EU military cooperation is very limited (coordinating purchases at an EU level, etc.) and subject to a veto from every member state. 

Not to mention NATO. 

[Chach]

14 hours ago, Bailey said:

So what do we think is going to happen with the vote?

[pete0]

https://voxpoliticalonline.com/2018/12/07/coward-theresa-may-couldnt-even-negotiate-a-tv-debate-how-can-we-believe-she-could-negotiate-brexit/?fbclid=IwAR0YkOyGwfFhOJUArswgHemFBhdvVkStaTXmPc2k6OPv3iKFxdwReIVNi4I

[MikeO]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-46480666

[Matt]

25 minutes ago, MikeO said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-46480666

You mean stopping freedom of movement will mean movement is hindered?!  

Who’d have thought! 

[Bailey]

On 05/12/2018 at 23:07, Palfy said:

If there was a general election I think that if Corbyn and Labour thought that running with a new vote on Europe would get them into power they would run with it.

Unfortunately both parties are using Brexit as a party political broadcast for themselves to get elected in stead of working together for a better out come.

I think they would to, which sums up the state of politics in this country. 

The latest Tory edition of this saga is to remind everyone of the "no deal" disruption. Do they think that people wont realise that any disruption will be the fault of Government for failing to in any way fully prepare for a no deal. 

[markjazzbassist]

why is labour a Leave party?  i would think the left would be remain.

[MikeO]

13 minutes ago, markjazzbassist said:

why is labour a Leave party?  i would think the left would be remain.

It's not fully, most of them campaigned for remain pre-referendum (though not all) but now they're committed to carry out "the will of the people". Policies very unclear though, they say they'd make a better job of it than the Tories (which my grand-kids could so not overly taxing) but they've not explained how.

The only parties that want the advice that the British public gave to be looked at again in the light of all the new evidence are the Scottish Nationalists, the Liberals and the Greens. 

[markjazzbassist]

1 hour ago, MikeO said:

It's not fully, most of them campaigned for remain pre-referendum (though not all) but now they're committed to carry out "the will of the people". Policies very unclear though, they say they'd make a better job of it than the Tories (which my grand-kids could so not overly taxing) but they've not explained how.

The only parties that want the advice that the British public gave to be looked at again in the light of all the new evidence are the Scottish Nationalists, the Liberals and the Greens. 

thanks mike.  i took one of those tests of which party are you and i'm SNP and then Green.  Does SNP only garner votes from Scots?  Seems like they are more left of the Labour party, i guess the Scottish in their title is what holds them back?

[MikeO]

17 minutes ago, markjazzbassist said:

thanks mike.  i took one of those tests of which party are you and i'm SNP and then Green.  Does SNP only garner votes from Scots?  Seems like they are more left of the Labour party, i guess the Scottish in their title is what holds them back?

Yes mostly because they only put up candidates north of the border (though I'm sure there are English/Welsh/Irish people who live there and vote for them, I would). They've only got really big in recent years, mostly at Labour's expense.

[markjazzbassist]

great stuff mike.  i really do prefer your parlimentary system.  The US seems to as well since every government it topples is replaced with one (see iraq, etc).

[Palfy]

4 minutes ago, markjazzbassist said:

great stuff mike.  i really do prefer your parlimentary system.  The US seems to as well since every government it topples is replaced with one (see iraq, etc).

So would I just to help the whingeing sods to get their independence, the Scottish nationalists hate the English and from me it’s reciprocated. 

[Matt]

Mike! What are you doing, bringing in facts?! Shame on you!

[rubecula]

6 hours ago, markjazzbassist said:

why is labour a Leave party?  i would think the left would be remain.

it isn'tt really,  everyone was given a free vote  Corbyn wanted to leave though

[Palfy]

14 hours ago, rubecula said:

it isn'ttt really,  everyone was given a free vote  Corbyn wanted to leave though

Corbyn was at heart a leaver that was evident during the build up to the vote, even though his party and media forced him to say he was a remainer you could tell through his lack of leadership for the remain party that he was a closet leaver. 

But most of the Labour MPs were remainers even though the majority of their constituents were leavers.

[Bailey]

Yeh Corbyn has wanted to be out of the EU for years although I am not sure why he wants out? 

[Bailey]

Latest rumour is that the commons vote will be put back until the New Year. 

[Palfy]

2 hours ago, Bailey said:

Latest rumour is that the commons vote will be put back until the New Year. 

If true then there should be a vote of no confidence in the government, she needs sacking she's already caused untold damage.

[MikeO]

1 hour ago, Palfy said:

If true then there should be a vote of no confidence in the government, she needs sacking she's already caused untold damage.

But who is the credible replacement? 

F'cked if I know.

[Palfy]

57 minutes ago, MikeO said:

But who is the credible replacement? 

F'cked if I know.

As a Party Labour are a credible replacement, whether or not you like Corbyn shouldn't really be the issue, would you rather have Johnson or Rees-Mogg because we are going to get one of them in the next 4-6 months.

[pete0]

https://skwawkbox.org/2018/12/09/video-as-huge-integrity-initiative-scandal-breaks-bbcs-coverage-ices-the-cake/?fbclid=IwAR2NQnpSU95EWYrsBV3g9BFdmtRAdHShhRKF3xmBPFCpSUmgsqmV9Pnq01w

[MikeO]

48 minutes ago, Palfy said:

As a Party Labour are a credible replacement, whether or not you like Corbyn shouldn't really be the issue, would you rather have Johnson or Rees-Mogg because we are going to get one of them in the next 4-6 months.

I agree with that but sadly the Labour party is massively split. The rank and file members are hugely Corbyn supporters but his fellow MP's want rid, so even if he got in a position of negotiating he's as unlikely as May to get a deal done. Lose lose situation for me caused by the (I may be repeating myself) vacuous stupidity of the vote in the first place.

[pete0]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/10/uk-can-unilaterally-stop-brexit-process-eu-court-rules?fbclid=IwAR3riZXFQZexfxhh--0_lXSPA9AEH-vIT19JbBKOBFYxMQC05WURH5DEjfg

UK can revoke article 50, potentially we could end this shit show in an instant.