Chach Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 Ok, I'm just going to assume you've never taken a statistics unit and just leave it there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 Just now, Chach said: Ok, I'm just going to assume you've never taken a statistics unit and just leave it there. I’m guessing neither have you if you don’t see new stats entering into an existing formula. Yes, leave or remain could gain more from people changing minds. The 3m people abroad might be given a voice. Leave voters tended to be older, some might not be around to vote. Under age people in 2016 will now be of age to vote. Yeah, it’s more than just people changing their minds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Matt said: new stats entering into an existing formula. The stats are the outcomes, the changes to inputs are variables. Over a longer period that would certainly make a larger difference, but we're talking of a margin of 1.3m votes over a couple of years and we know how different demographics voted last time. People are going to have to change their mind and if this thread is anything to go by I wouldn't have any breath holding competitions on that happening. Formby 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 Just now, Chach said: The stats are the outcomes, the changes to inputs are variables. Over a longer period that would certainly make a larger difference, but we're talking of a margin of 1.3m votes over a couple of years and we know how different demographics voted last time. People are going to have to change their mind and if this thread is anything to go by I wouldn't have any breath holding competitions on that happening. My mistake on the wording, but you know what I mean. Wasn't denying that. I said it will be decided by people who are interested, although I should've said eligible and interested. Can't remember where I read it back after the result was announced, but by the time Brexit would be implemented, it was estimated 2.5m new voters would be of age, and as the trend of votes showed, the majority of youth wanted to Remain. It was also estimated 1.5m would have died by the time Brexit was implemented, with the older population being more likely to vote leave. That's a big difference, (ignoring the 3m that weren't allowed to vote, because we probably wouldn't be allowed again), that's not down to changing of mind. pete0 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Formby Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, Chach said: People are going to have to change their mind and if this thread is anything to go by I wouldn't have any breath holding competitions on that happening. Had to smile at this line! Is there anyone on the board who has changed sides / position? Lots of bunkered in talk and not much rapprochement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Matt said: My mistake on the wording, but you know what I mean. Wasn't denying that. I said it will be decided by people who are interested, although I should've said eligible and interested. Can't remember where I read it back after the result was announced, but by the time Brexit would be implemented, it was estimated 2.5m new voters would be of age, and as the trend of votes showed, the majority of youth wanted to Remain. It was also estimated 1.5m would have died by the time Brexit was implemented, with the older population being more likely to vote leave. That's a big difference, (ignoring the 3m that weren't allowed to vote, because we probably wouldn't be allowed again), that's not down to changing of mind. What was the voter turnout of the 1.5m who were on deaths door or the 2.5m new voters? I'll wager it wasn't 72% mate, the demographic change will not swing the vote because it will look roughly the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Chach said: What was the voter turnout of the 1.5m who were on deaths door or the 2.5m new voters? I'll wager it wasn't 72% mate, the demographic change will not swing the vote because it will look roughly the same. Fair point, but the young voters will be a lot more motivated than those who aren't here anymore, and with the last 20 months, the youth might be more motivated than ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 hours ago, Matt said: Fair point, but the young voters will be a lot more motivated than those who aren't here anymore, and with the last 20 months, the youth might be more motivated than ever. Also I think it was assumed all along that remain would win so possibly a lot of people just didn't bother, nearly thirteen million didn't vote. Certainly some of them will have been "out" supporters but I think it's fair to assume that a lot of them were quite content with how things were and trusted in the polls telling them that that was how it was going to stay; people who want change are more likely to act than people happy with the status quo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 hours ago, Formby said: Had to smile at this line! Is there anyone on the board who has changed sides / position? Lots of bunkered in talk and not much rapprochement. If anything, I’ve learnt a lot from all the research I’ve done leading up to and since the referendum, and I’m more convinced than ever that remaining would’ve been the better option Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 10 hours ago, Chach said: The second referendum would be the domain of people changing their mind, Remain > Leave and Leave > Remain. its entirely conceivable the leave position would improve. Of course you’re right it is very possible that the leave position could improve, and if it did or didn’t a new vote based more on the reality and not the lies of both sides would be a more definitive and just result. With out doubt there must be numerous people on both sides who feel they had been misled, plus the millions who never voted that may feel their vote would make a difference to the outcome. Matt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Romey 1878 Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 6 hours ago, Matt said: My mistake on the wording, but you know what I mean. Wasn't denying that. I said it will be decided by people who are interested, although I should've said eligible and interested. Can't remember where I read it back after the result was announced, but by the time Brexit would be implemented, it was estimated 2.5m new voters would be of age, and as the trend of votes showed, the majority of youth wanted to Remain. It was also estimated 1.5m would have died by the time Brexit was implemented, with the older population being more likely to vote leave. That's a big difference, (ignoring the 3m that weren't allowed to vote, because we probably wouldn't be allowed again), that's not down to changing of mind. Considering there has been no official breakdown of the vote, how can you say the majority of youth wanted to remain? You’re going off unofficial polls for your info, the same sort of unofficial polls that had remain comfortably winning the vote. Tut, tut Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 48 minutes ago, Romey 1878 said: Considering there has been no official breakdown of the vote, how can you say the majority of youth wanted to remain? You’re going off unofficial polls for your info, the same sort of unofficial polls that had remain comfortably winning the vote. Tut, tut Not rocket science though, feel free to dismiss it if you like but pretty undeniable... https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Romey 1878 Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, MikeO said: Not rocket science though, feel free to dismiss it if you like but pretty undeniable... https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted YouGov had remain winning the vote beforehand, which seemed pretty undeniable as well, and polls in recent years around voting have been a load of shite. And tbh, I wouldn’t trust the youth of this country as far as I could thrown them anyway. It’s that youth that campaigns to get clapping banned at uni and you must do jazz hands to show appreciation instead. Or that same youth that wants the wearing of poppies banned. So, with all due respect, the youth are as big a bunch of fucking idiots as any age group. Their want is no more important than anyone else’s. I was only winding Matt up anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Romey 1878 said: YouGov had remain winning the vote beforehand, which seemed pretty undeniable as well, and polls in recent years around voting have been a load of shite. And tbh, I wouldn’t trust the youth of this country as far as I could thrown them anyway. It’s that youth that campaigns to get clapping banned at uni and you must do jazz hands to show appreciation instead. Or that same youth that wants the wearing of poppies banned. So, with all due respect, the youth are as big a bunch of fucking idiots as any age group. Their want is no more important than anyone else’s. I was only winding Matt up anyway. You type fast! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, MikeO said: Not rocket science though, feel free to dismiss it if you like but pretty undeniable... https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted I can only say based on my wider family that those statistics on the vote based on age are pretty much the same as our family voted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 minute ago, MikeO said: You type fast! His kids taught him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Romey 1878 Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Palfy said: His kids taught him. And then they tried to get typing banned because it makes too much noise and might disturb people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeO Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Palfy said: I can only say based on my wider family that those statistics on the vote based on age are pretty much the same as our family voted. Not a single member of my close or extended family voted out I'm proud to say, from a 16 year old niece who was well pissed she had no say to my late father-in-law (who was 93 at the time). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, Romey 1878 said: And then they tried to get typing banned because it makes too much noise and might disturb people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, MikeO said: Not a single member of my close or extended family voted out I'm proud to say, from a 16 year old niece who was well pissed she had no say to my late father-in-law (who was 93 at the time). My son who was 33 at the time didn’t vote, my daughters who were 31 and 29 voted remain my wife and myself voted remain, both my wife’s parents and their partners voted leave they are all in there mid 70s to early 80s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chach Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 10 hours ago, Palfy said: Of course you’re right it is very possible that the leave position could improve, and if it did or didn’t a new vote based more on the reality and not the lies of both sides would be a more definitive and just result. With out doubt there must be numerous people on both sides who feel they had been misled, plus the millions who never voted that may feel their vote would make a difference to the outcome. It would be very interesting to watch it unfold thats for sure. Matt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holystove Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Matt, you're in the clear. The UK and Switzerland have come to an agreement which covers both scenarios, withdrawal agreement or no deal, and it states there will be no change to the status of UK citizens in Switzerland or Swiss citizens in the UK. https://www.ejpd.admin.ch/ejpd/en/home/aktuell/news/2018/2018-12-20.html Matt and markjazzbassist 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 23 minutes ago, holystove said: Matt, you're in the clear. The UK and Switzerland have come to an agreement which covers both scenarios, withdrawal agreement or no deal, and it states there will be no change to the status of UK citizens in Switzerland or Swiss citizens in the UK. https://www.ejpd.admin.ch/ejpd/en/home/aktuell/news/2018/2018-12-20.html I saw right, sod y’all! I’m safe! Chach 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnh Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 16 hours ago, MikeO said: Not a single member of my close or extended family voted out I'm proud to say, from a 16 year old niece who was well pissed she had no say to my late father-in-law (who was 93 at the time). Mike, doesn't mean much. Down your neck of the woods they even vote for the Liberal's in General Elections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 hours ago, Matt said: I saw right, sod y’all! I’m safe! Matt what’s the property prices like sounds like a safe haven. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Palfy said: Matt what’s the property prices like sounds like a safe haven. 200,000chf /20% deposit on a 3 bedroom detached + 5% in admin... safe, yet costly. Pension, after 12 years, covers half the deposit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markjazzbassist Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Matt said: 200,000chf /20% deposit on a 3 bedroom detached + 5% in admin... safe, yet costly. Pension, after 12 years, covers half the deposit wait let me get this right, if you work in swiss for 12 years they pay 10k towards a home purchase? wow that sounds excellent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, markjazzbassist said: wait let me get this right, if you work in swiss for 12 years they pay 10k towards a home purchase? wow that sounds excellent Fuck no! the Swiss giving money away?! my current personal pension after 12 years is enough for half the deposit on a house (garden not guaranteed). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palfy Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Matt said: 200,000chf /20% deposit on a 3 bedroom detached + 5% in admin... safe, yet costly. Pension, after 12 years, covers half the deposit Roughly how many Francs to the Pound Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, Palfy said: Roughly how many Francs to the Pound At the moment it’s shite, despite Brexit. But it’s a volatile conversion rate and has been for at least 10 years GBP/CHF chart from the XE Currency app, https://www.xe.com/chart/?from=GBP&to=CHF that said, if you want a nice place to retire too and don’t need to worry about access, there’s some stunning chalets available for relative buttons Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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