Jump to content
IGNORED

At what point do we say we are in a relegation dogfight?


Recommended Posts

Thanks to the energy of Coleman, Walcott, and Niasse, we did play better - but I do think we were lucky to win. It’s not just that Leicester hit the woodwork three times, either, or Martina’s clearance off the line. For our first goal, Walcott was left totally unmarked right in front of goal for at least ten seconds. How many teams would allow that to happen? Leicester’s defence, which is usually quite decent, just fell apart in this game. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Shot is on target then. If the shot goes in the net or would have gone in the net if not for a player's intervention then it is on target.
There has to be some point at which a shot goes from being on target to off target. That point is the goal post.

[emoji12]But Shukes said if you hit the woodwork it’s not going in , just pointing out that it’s not necessarily the case


Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Cornish Steve said:

Thanks to the energy of Coleman, Walcott, and Niasse, we did play better - but I do think we were lucky to win. It’s not just that Leicester hit the woodwork three times, either, or Martina’s clearance off the line. For our first goal, Walcott was left totally unmarked right in front of goal for at least ten seconds. How many teams would allow that to happen? Leicester’s defence, which is usually quite decent, just fell apart in this game. 

Walcott was only left on his own due to us pinching the ball and then them being unable to get back into position. So I'd say we got that goal through our own hard work. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hafnia said:

Funny isn'ttt it.... we've envied these high pressing teams and wanted these super signings to help us do that. 

The one player who does this for us is niasse.

Every single footballer should be able to do this.... it doesn't require skill it requires desire and fitness. 

I’ll agree on that, potch has spurs doing 2 a days all throughout the season, he never lets up with their fitness.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, markjazzbassist said:

I’ll agree on that, potch has spurs doing 2 a days all throughout the season, he never lets up with their fitness.

Tiredness is a load of bollocks.  The more unfit you are the easier you get tired and the longer it takes to recover. 

If I did one 3k run now it would take me 2 days to get over it. I used to do an hour of heavy arsed weights and then a sub 50 minute 10k after it! Was fine the next day. 

I think there is a sweet spot where fitness and rest meet at the right place to get 100% but fitness is the key driver. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From after the Southampton defeat, Everton took 14 points from its next 6 EPL matches, a wonderful period, even if the football was uneven.  On the eve of the holiday fixture list, who any longer needed such a panicked thread as this one?

The holidays were unkind, football-wise, the beginning of what has become a full 6 weeks of gloomy football, leavened solely by the 3 points against Leicester, whether deserved or fortunate.  The gloom is darkest now, the darkest it’s been since Southampton, so that 24 hours after the pathetic Arsenal performance by manager and players alike, Everton fans are in a murderous mood.  I know I am.

Pretty much universally, we saw it coming at the exact moment the lineups were announced yesterday.  I labled it a 7-2-1, and decided after 5 minutes of play that it was a 9-1.  Others of you offered ominous descriptions and predictions, justified almost immediately as Arsenal players laughed their way to 4 first-half goals.  It seems reasonable, not unhinged, to feel contempt for the manager, the owner, the DoF, and more than a few of the players.

Is it reasonable, or unhinged, to think we are in a relegaion battle?  I myself feel a bit of both.  It’s unhinged, in that we’re on 31 points with 12 matches to go, many seemingly winnable.  All things being equal, why not predict we’ll end on 45+ points, mid-table, disappointing but easy-safe.  That’s actually what I expect, or would, if things felt normal, equally worried and hopeful before eachn match.

But things don’t feel anything, in any way, hopeful.   Neither yesterday’s loss, nor Allardyce’s self-serving, not-my-fault, comments, nor the players’ individual and collective effort yesterday, nor the creeping and now suddenly ubiquitous and deeper gloom - absolutely none of that  bespeaks anything in the cosmos of hope.  So while I expect - truly - we’ll stay up, I feel foolish just now thinking that way.

My near and intermediate term fear is that there may be a substantial carry-over effect from the multiple aspects of yesterday’s stunning defeat.  I worry about downhill momentum.  Very specifically, I fear we might fall several spots down the table after our next matches, of which we have but 3 over the next 4 weeks.  If we lose next Saturday at Goodison to Palace ...... good heavens how could we expect to stop the downhill slide away to Watford or Burnley?

I’m willing to say it’s just a little too early to panic.  I’m also willing to bet that 38, possibly fewer, points will see us safe.  Yet nothing feels logical or calming about Everton today.  It all feels embarrassing, pathetic, chaotic, ugly, gloomy, sour, nervous.  We’ve become a laughingstock, we know it, and we think it’s deserved.

Are we in a relegation dogfight?  A normal, discouraging loss away to Arsenal would not justify overwhelming gloom.  But yesterday and the aftermath feel as if the Leicester result was a false dawn.  Dark mood, dark days all this coming week.  The typical enthusiastic pablum that appears on the OS from manager and players - “We’ve got to come together, show our character, blah, blah, blah” - won’t do, and likely will simply further infuriate us/me.

Is Palace must-win?  Since relegation is our worst football-imaginable prospect, and since taking anything in the 2 away matches following a loss to Palace is unlikely, the answer is yes.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

Well, true to my word, I look at it around the game 25 - 30 mark. Before this it's pointless as so much can happen...transfers, manager changes etc.

I'd say it's between the bottom 5 now.

I can't see WBA getting out.

I can't see Stoke getting out.

I think that leaves the last relegation spot between Palace, Southampton and West Ham. Tough to call. Depends who Southampton appoint. West Ham are in a mess. Might allow Palace to creep out of it.

Above them...Huddersfield are ok. They've stuck with their man so that consistency will pay off.

Swansea made a smart move and will pick up enough points. 

The rest will pick up enough to stay clear of that bottom 5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We’ve had 2 must-win matches in our last 4: Palace and Brighton.  Each came at a moment of deep gloom, Palace after the Arsenal total disaster, when Allardyce set out what was essentially a 7-2-1 formation, only to see Arsenal glide past our porous, confused defensive set-up on their way to laughably easy first-half goals.  Then the Palace win gave us essential breathing room.  But 2 dismal away “performances” brought back a foul mood surrounding the club at least as deep as after Arsenal.  Another must-win at Goodison, marred only, if at all, by Rooney’s penalty miss.

We’re in good shape to avoid relegation, and it’s even possible once again to look up the table to 8th, even 7th.  In fact, given that 6 of our final 8 opponents are mediocre to poor, one could plausibly argue that we should finish 7th or 8th.  But only 2 of those 6 are at Goodison, so to finish strong we will have to take points away against opponents themselves desperate to avoid relegation.

I don’t expect to face another must-win match, but if we take not a single point from our next 4 matches, all difficult for different reasons, the gloom will return.  Especially if we are humiliated by Liverpool at home.  It will be dismaying if a month from now we’re psychologically, not to mention practically, reduced to thinking, “Well, surely we can get to 40 by beating either Newcastle or Southampton at Goodison.  Or at least a point from each of those.  That would get us to 39.  We’re probably safe.......”

We’re probably safe.  Probably no threat to get to 7th (or 8th).  Likely to finish this deeply disappointing season an unsatisfactory mid-table underachiever.

I’ll hope for a miracle, 7 points from next 3, win, draw, win.  This thread disappears, Liverpool falls to 5th........

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Matt said:

Completely agree, but it shows how unbalanced the league is becoming. 

Being an Evertonian I am well versed in how the club and allardyce in particular will view a top 10 finish and it makes me nervous and angry.

In many ways a lower finish may reap better responses from the club in correcting the wrongs.. however it may affect our attraction. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, hafnia said:

Being an Evertonian I am well versed in how the club and allardyce in particular will view a top 10 finish and it makes me nervous and angry.

In many ways a lower finish may reap better responses from the club in correcting the wrongs.. however it may affect our attraction. 

If anyone at the club, from board to management to players, view anything below 7th as 'good', after all the investment etc, they need a good spanking.

That's not even mentioning the diabolical Europa campaign and 2 under par domestic cup campaigns.

Many lessons to be learnt from this season. God help anyone that tries to tell us any different!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thinking more about the question, I now have my answer.

P <= 1.5*SQRT(R+0.75*A) + 0.1*G

where R is the number of remaining games, A is the number of remaining games with teams above us, G is our goal difference versus the average of those teams below us, and P is the number of points between us and the team in 18th place (normalized to account for number of games played).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Cornish Steve said:

Thinking more about the question, I now have my answer.

P <= 1.5*SQRT(R+0.75*A) + 0.1*G

where R is the number of remaining games, A is the number of remaining games with teams above us, G is our goal difference versus the average of those teams below us, and P is the number of points between us and the team in 18th place (normalized to account for number of games played).

This has us winning the league on goal difference to Man City.

Think you've formulated it wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...