Qualifying for Europe

[MikeO]

23 minutes ago, c1982 said:

If we, and this is a huge IF, we mirror the start of the season and win our last 4, we’ll finish 4th. Look at the fixtures of all clubs with a chance if you think this is a ridiculous post!

I'll take your word for it, think it's highly unlikely but not impossibe.

[Gwlad]

I would prefer Europa. Unless we REALLY improve the squad in the summer we'll be humiliated in the CL.

[StevO]

1 hour ago, c1982 said:

If we, and this is a huge IF, we mirror the start of the season and win our last 4, we’ll finish 4th. Look at the fixtures of all clubs with a chance if you think this is a ridiculous post!

It’s the hope that kills us!!

I think fourth is gone  

But, if, if we can beat Villa on Thursday we go level on points with West Ham, at least until Liverpool play United right after us. If United win that one, we could finish fifth. 
 

[c1982]

19 minutes ago, StevO said:

It’s the hope that kills us!!

I think fourth is gone  

But, if, if we can beat Villa on Thursday we go level on points with West Ham, at least until Liverpool play United right after us. If United win that one, we could finish fifth. 
 

Yep, 5th is very realistic if we can get our act together and keep key players fit.

We need Man U to do us 2 favours this  week and us to beat Villa and it could look very interesting by the weekend.

[Palfy]

2 hours ago, c1982 said:

Yep, 5th is very realistic if we can get our act together and keep key players fit.

We need Man U to do us 2 favours this  week and us to beat Villa and it could look very interesting by the weekend.

I remember not very long ago it didn’t matter what other teams did it was in our own hands, but we couldn’t win a game at home even though the CL was there for the taking, gutted  

[Btay]

3 hours ago, Gwlad all over said:

I would prefer Europa. Unless we REALLY improve the squad in the summer we'll be humiliated in the CL.

I don’t understand this mentality to be honest. Every season we have to aim to finish as high as possible and then recruit in the summer for the season ahead. If we had champions league with Carlo, Moshiri and Brands we would be recruiting some top top talent.

[pete0]

11 minutes ago, Palfy said:

I remember not very long ago it didn’t matter what other teams did it was in our own hands, but we couldn’t win a game at home even though the CL was there for the taking, gutted  

3 points from 5 games really pissed on our hope. (Chelsea, Burnley, Brighton, Spurs and Palace.)

[Btay]

12 minutes ago, pete0 said:

3 points from 5 games really pissed on our hope. (Chelsea, Burnley, Brighton, Spurs and Palace.)

Now we need minimum 10 from 4 and results to go our way...

[Elston Gunnn]

9 hours ago, c1982 said:

If we, and this is a huge IF, we mirror the start of the season and win our last 4, we’ll finish 4th. Look at the fixtures of all clubs with a chance if you think this is a ridiculous post!

Not a ridiculous post, as you acknowledge the “huge IF.”  But looking at the fixtures of the clubs now sitting 4th through 8th renders the certainty of a 4th-place finish debatable.  Here’s the look:

4 - Leicester 63 pts — ManU (A), Chelsea (A), Spurs (H)

5 - W Ham 58 — Brighton (A), WBrom (A), Southampton (H)

6 - Liverpool 57 — ManU (A), WBrom (A), Burnley (A), Palace (H)

7 - Spurs 56 — Wolves (H), Villa (H), Leicester (A)

8 - Everton 55 — Villa (A), SheffieldU (H), Wolves (H), ManCity (A)

Giving us the “huge-IF” 12 points gets us to 67.  Then we have to make plausible guesses as to how the other clubs might fare.  We probably lose all tiebreakers on GD.  

I’d guess Leicester won’t get to 67, and Spurs best possible finish is 65.  But WHam, facing 3 weak opponents, is about 50-50 to take 9 points, reach the magic 67.  Liverpool would probably need to take a point at Old Trafford.  Their other tough match might be Burnley, if Burnley must still hold off Fulham in the relegation fight.  Liverpool is, say, also 50-50 to get to 67.

Rising even to 5th-6th, much less 4th, will probably take this:

5 hours ago, Btay said:

Now we need minimum 10 from 4 and results to go our way...

And this is still something of a long shot.

 

 

 

 

[Hafnia]

Who knows with this season.....  It's certainly made the awful performances more sour to take.  Champions League was doable and without injuries and weak mentality from certain players we would be there. 

[Btay]

1 hour ago, Hafnia said:

Who knows with this season.....  It's certainly made the awful performances more sour to take.  Champions League was doable and without injuries and weak mentality from certain players we would be there. 

At the end of the day it’s the first season I long time we’ve even discussed Europe as a realistic possibility. Progress is there just need a handful more players.

[MikeO]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/57049608

[Elston Gunnn]

3 hours ago, Hafnia said:

Who knows with this season.....  It's certainly made the awful performances more sour to take.  Champions League was doable and without injuries and weak mentality from certain players we would be there. 

There would probably be a vigorous debate on TT about which players have exhibited weak mentality.  However, Ancelotti has actually seemed to confirm this as a problem. In his postmatch comments on the OS, here’s an intriguing — and dismaying — statement:

“The players know it will be vital against Aston Villa, we have to be ready, to prepare to feel the game.  It was important to feel how important the game was today.”

So that has to mean at least some of the players have not consistently felt how important were those matches that would have allowed us to move up the table.

Another interesting Carlo-comment in this Guardian paragraph on Everton: “We are not a possession team because we have different qualities.”

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/may/10/premier-league-10-talking-points-from-the-weekends-action

The writer of this short piece suggests that Everton “have not challenged for the top four as determinedly as either West Ham or Leicester.”

To end on a positive note, however, we are surprisingly still in the fight for Europe, any Europe.  We have 4 matches in 11 days (!!) starting with Villa on Thursday.  That surely means some judicious squad-rotation, Doucouré playing a key role, prayers for James to be available for the last match or two.  DCL, Richarlison, Allan, and Coleman are going to be exhausted.  Delph, Iwobi, King, and Holgate are going to play.

[MikeO]

47 minutes ago, Elston Gunnn said:

Delph, Iwobi, King, and Holgate are going to play.

Might as well close the thread then.

[Elston Gunnn]

1 hour ago, MikeO said:

Might as well close the thread then.

And stuff all this nonsense about the glories of the Europa Conference League and just hope we don’t fall below 10th.

[StevO]

If Delph and Iwobi could just pick up a little injury I would be a whole lot more relaxed. 
 

In all seriousness, if DCL, Richarlison, James, Doucoure, Allan and Digne stay fit for these last four games we have as good a chance as any. But Villa is now the cup final. We lose and it’s all over. It’s that simple for me. 
We can finish above Liverpool and Spurs, but three points at Villa is the only way we do it. 

[MikeO]

1 hour ago, StevO said:

But Villa is now the cup final. We lose and it’s all over. It’s that simple for me. 
We can finish above Liverpool and Spurs, but three points at Villa is the only way we do it. 

West Ham was the first cup final yesterday, we now have four more; we can maybe afford to draw one of them, ten points would almost certainly be enough.

[StevO]

18 minutes ago, MikeO said:

West Ham was the first cup final yesterday, we now have four more; we can maybe afford to draw one of them, ten points would almost certainly be enough.

If we beat Villa I’ll be back here saying Sheff United is a cup final too. But we need to win all of them for any of them to count. 
If we get seven points I think we’ll finish above Spurs, but if we can get nine it’ll be really interesting. If we get ten this will go down as a good season for me. 

[Palfy]

The City game concerns me they won’t need the win, but they will be presented the trophy in front of their fans and will want a win to add to the party atmosphere.  

[MikeO]

7 minutes ago, Palfy said:

The City game concerns me they won’t need the win, but they will be presented the trophy in front of their fans and will want a win to add to the party atmosphere.  

They'll have the trophy presented well before then, we'll be playing under 18s in flip-flops.

[duncanmckenzieismagic]

9 minutes ago, Palfy said:

The City game concerns me they won’t need the win, but they will be presented the trophy in front of their fans and will want a win to add to the party atmosphere.  

All thing being Everton I’m more worried about Sheffield United at home than City away

[Palfy]

Just now, MikeO said:

They'll have the trophy presented well before then, we'll be playing under 18s in flip-flops.

I always thought where possible it was presented to the winner's at their last home game. I’m happy if I’m wrong.  

[MikeO]

1 minute ago, Palfy said:

I always thought where possible it was presented to the winner's at their last home game. I’m happy if I’m wrong.  

My brain is telling me that it's presented when you win it, but it's a 61 year old organ so I'd not rely on it in all honesty.

[Palfy]

3 minutes ago, duncanmckenzieismagic said:

All thing being Everton I’m more worried about Sheffield United at home than City away

Very true, but wouldn’t that be devastating if we won the other 3 and lost that one, even thinking it is to painful

[Zoo 2.0]

19 minutes ago, Palfy said:

The City game concerns me they won’t need the win, but they will be presented the trophy in front of their fans and will want a win to add to the party atmosphere.  

They play the Champions League final six days later, so I think they'll play their reserves (who are admittedly capable of beating anyone) in what is a dead rubber for them.

[Palfy]

2 minutes ago, MikeO said:

My brain is telling me that it's presented when you win it, but it's a 61 year old organ so I'd not rely on it in all honesty.

To be honest I think you’re right mate. 

[MikeO]

1 minute ago, Palfy said:

To be honest I think you’re right mate. 

Had to happen eventually.

[RuffRob]

I thought the city game would have fallen in to our hands until I read all clubs will be allowed fans to the final home game of the season. They will not put a inferior team out for the fans, or put in an half arsed performance, I fear our goal difference could take another hit in this game. Plenty of time between our game and the CL final as well, so they don't need to rest players. 

We have simply have to beat Villa, Shef Utd and Wolves. Three cup finals, that would most likely nick us 7th and the last Europa place. The way we have played this season, there has been nothing to show me that we likely to take 9 points.

I will be pissed off if we miss out on Europe, but if we are in the mix come the last game of the season, I would say that's probably around what I was hoping for at the beginning of this season. 

Over the season, no way have we shown anything like the quality of a top 4 team. We don't actually deserve anything more than it really.

 

[duncanmckenzieismagic]

1 hour ago, MikeO said:

My brain is telling me that it's presented when you win it, but it's a 61 year old organ so I'd not rely on it in all honesty.

I’m fairly sure you are correct however given that fans are allowed back for the final game surely they will get permission to do it then?

[Btay]

3 hours ago, RuffRob said:

I thought the city game would have fallen in to our hands until I read all clubs will be allowed fans to the final home game of the season. They will not put a inferior team out for the fans, or put in an half arsed performance, I fear our goal difference could take another hit in this game. Plenty of time between our game and the CL final as well, so they don't need to rest players. 

We have simply have to beat Villa, Shef Utd and Wolves. Three cup finals, that would most likely nick us 7th and the last Europa place. The way we have played this season, there has been nothing to show me that we likely to take 9 points.

I will be pissed off if we miss out on Europe, but if we are in the mix come the last game of the season, I would say that's probably around what I was hoping for at the beginning of this season. 

Over the season, no way have we shown anything like the quality of a top 4 team. We don't actually deserve anything more than it really.

 

All good points but if you are going to play city away then this is the ideal time if there was one.