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Ifs, buts and Maybes


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A couple of weeks ago, I laid out what I thought was our best chance of getting to 40 points and therefore, if history is any guide, to safety. At the time, we needed to secure 21 points from the remaining 17 games, and I laid out what I thought to be the most likely course. Maybe I can track our progress over time.

Current status: 39 points

Brentford (H): 3 points
Burnley (A): 3 points
Leeds (H): 3 points (actual: 3 points)
Newcastle (H): 3 points
Palace (H): 3 points
Watford (A): 3 points

Leicester (H): 1 point
Southampton (A): 1 point (actual: 0 points)
Wolves (H): 1 point

Arsenal (A): 0 points
Chelsea (H): 0 points
Leicester (A): 0 points
Liverpool (A): 0 points
Man City (H): 0 points
Man United (H): 0 points
Spurs (A): 0 points
West Ham (A): 0 points

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I agree with all of your predicted losses - though wouldn't it be Everton to win a couple of them! What I am not so sure about is your predicted wins. Brentford, like us, are in freefall and their fans will be doing similar calculations, looking at their game with us and thinking '3 points!' So will Newcastle and Burnley. For that reason I think the games with Brentford, Burnley and Newcastle are likely to be draws, unless we can get the Old Lady rockin' again fpor the Brentford and Newcastle games. That puts us back on 33 points (31 if we also draw with Palace) and I don't think that will be quite enough.

I have a feeling that Brentford and Palace may get very involved in the relegation scrap and I just can't really call it or feel confident about it now. What really worries me is that by the time we play Newcastle, they will probably be above us in the league and we will likely be 17th or even 18th. I would then doubt the bottle of too many of our squad to get out of a relegation position if we ever fell into one.

Whichever way it goes, it looks likely that we will all agree that it is going to be close, one way or the other. And that is just not acceptable for Everton FC.

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Good thread @Cornish Steve. Will be fun (assuming we pick up some points) to follow along in the coming weeks/months. I agree with Hoof every away game has to be considered 0 points for the sake of this exercise. Therefore we need to find 4 more points from our home games Leicester, Wolves, Chelsea, City, Utd. Yikes. Whether it will take the full 40 to survive who knows but the team better play like it will. 

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25 minutes ago, dunlopp9987 said:

As a few have mentioned, it is very Everton for us to drop points against the teams we should be taking all 3 from, and then come up with some big home wins against the top teams. Would not be surprised to see that happen again this season

I agree I think we have a better chance of beating Leicester and Man U at home than we have of beating Burnley away. I think we will stay up and won’t need the 40 points or 36 to do so and we will be pleasantly surprised at where some of our points come from, and will be equally devastated when we don’t get them from games we believe we should. 

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We have some really good coaches and manager, if they can get our players to play their way, which I believe they will over time then we will be fine.

What we have over other teams is firepower / goal threat, once DCL gets match fit and shakes the rust off we will score more goals.

We also have Doucuore and Godfrey to come back and Alli to integrate into the team all of which makes us stronger.

Ther key thing imho is to get the players playing the managers style of football and not panicking, easier said than done, but I see and expect improvement incrementally. 

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9 minutes ago, Haiku said:

Unfortunately it looks we need to put up a real fight to avoid 18th place.

I don't see it as unfortunate at all, no "fortune" involved; we should be staying up because we're good enough to do so.

But, if we were to get relegated it'd make zero impact on my support for the club; we've been top flight since before I was born, only Arsenal been there longer. A history most clubs would bite your arm off for.

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Burnley beating Spurs didn't really surprise me.

I guess we can now just about agree that it is almost certainly Norwich, Watford plus one to go down.

The only teams between us and 18th are Burnley and Newcastle who are both finding form and results. Leeds and Brentford may be joining us in the relegation battle. I really think that Newcastle and, most probably, Burnley too will avoid the drop.

We need to find at least one win in the next three league games imho to give us some confidence to take into the Newcastle game. If we are on 28 points or more after Newcastle I will start to feel less worried. Anything less and I think we will be relying on Leeds or Brentford to have an even worse finish to the season than we would likely have.

Apologies for the negativity but I think we have to be realistic.

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5 minutes ago, Hafnia said:

I think Brentford will really go. They have played 3 more games than us. 
 

sky really enjoyed pulling out a mathematical possibility that we could end up in bottom 3 before playing Man City. Pricks. 

They did but provided Newcastle don’t lose and Burnley nick a win at Palace (not unlikely) then we will be 18th when we kick off v City.

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7 minutes ago, Wiggytop said:

Both Norwich and Leeds lost, a good start to the weekends fixtures for us so far. Not that we should be relying on other teams to drop points of course.

I agree in theory, but we're past the point of "not wanting to rely on other results." With our tough run of games coming up, we absolutely should be relying on others around us dropping points

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3 minutes ago, dunlopp9987 said:

Desperate for them to hang on here. Just mentally for us to not have to go into Monday's game against Spurs in the bottom three is huge

2-0 great goal vardy

they wouldn’t have conceded either goal if mee was on pitch. He’s huge for them. 

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Current status: 39 points

Brentford (H): 3 points
Burnley (A): 3 points
Leeds (H): 3 points (actual: 3 points)
Newcastle (H): 3 points
Palace (H): 3 points
Watford (A): 3 points

Leicester (H): 1 point
Southampton (A): 1 point (actual: 0 points)
Wolves (H): 1 point

Arsenal (A): 0 points
Chelsea (H): 0 points
Leicester (A): 0 points
Liverpool (A): 0 points
Man City (H): 0 points (actual: 0 points)
Man United (H): 0 points
Spurs (A): 0 points
West Ham (A): 0 points

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My concern is the 5 predicted wins. On paper, we should win them but we are so fragile at the moment and I can see 2-3 of those wins actually being draws. And that would make a big difference. 39 points should be enough with a couple of points to spare but 33 points is a last day nail biter.

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14 minutes ago, RPG said:

My concern is the 5 predicted wins. On paper, we should win them but we are so fragile at the moment and I can see 2-3 of those wins actually being draws. And that would make a big difference. 39 points should be enough with a couple of points to spare but 33 points is a last day nail biter.

The Newcastle and Palace games will be tough, I agree, but United at home is a possible draw or even win.

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10 hours ago, Cornish Steve said:

The Newcastle and Palace games will be tough, I agree, but United at home is a possible draw or even win.

Yes, there is always the 'unexpected draw or win' to hope for. I think Burnley won't be straightforward either. They will be organised, sit deep, carry a threat on the break, invite us to try to break them down and, by the time we play them, they may be happy with a point. It would be nice if Burnley came into the game feeling that they had to win it.

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On 01/03/2022 at 22:44, Cornish Steve said:

Current status: 39 points

Brentford (H): 3 points
Burnley (A): 3 points
Leeds (H): 3 points (actual: 3 points)
Newcastle (H): 3 points
Palace (H): 3 points
Watford (A): 3 points

Leicester (H): 1 point
Southampton (A): 1 point (actual: 0 points)
Wolves (H): 1 point

Arsenal (A): 0 points
Chelsea (H): 0 points
Leicester (A): 0 points
Liverpool (A): 0 points
Man City (H): 0 points (actual: 0 points)
Man United (H): 0 points
Spurs (A): 0 points (actual: 0 points)
West Ham (A): 0 points

Anyone still thinking we're not battling relegation is wrong. I'm expecting it to come down to the last two weeks and if we miraculously pull ourselves out of it before then, dandy. 

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1 hour ago, AlbanyNYToffee said:

Anyone still thinking we're not battling relegation is wrong. I'm expecting it to come down to the last two weeks and if we miraculously pull ourselves out of it before then, dandy. 

We are not battling relegation last nights performance was more like we are accepting relegation, I never saw any battling. 

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15 hours ago, Palfy said:

We are not battling relegation last nights performance was more like we are accepting relegation, I never saw any battling. 

 

23 minutes ago, Shukes said:

At the moment it feels like we’re not battling relegation, but preparing for next years survival in the championship.

The next two games are vital. Anything less than 6 points and it is going to be very, very difficult.

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3 hours ago, AlbanyNYToffee said:

Anybody think if we kickoff Sunday in 18th (based on Burnley result against Brentford) that’s a good thing? Maybe the fact we aren’t actually in the relegation zone has this useless squad feeling too comfortable…

Maybe, I also have a feeling that the new manager bounce at Leeds might kick in and that they will beat Villa. That wouldn't just leave us 18th but also starting to be part of a bottom 4 getting cut adrift. I think Norwich and Watford are down and it could then be between Burnley and us for the last spot.

Our next two games are not easy, need approaching with the right attitude and really must deliver 6 points.

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1 hour ago, Hafnia said:

I’m still looking at Newcastle too.  Let’s see them lose and end up back in it. 

They're safe. With the excellent run they're on, I can't see them getting anywhere close to a relegation fight now.

I just keep looking at games played and thinking "oh we're fine! We've got multiple games in hand on some of these other sides!" and then I remember that we can't fucking win a game, so it doesn't really matter

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7 minutes ago, dunlopp9987 said:

They're safe. With the excellent run they're on, I can't see them getting anywhere close to a relegation fight now.

I just keep looking at games played and thinking "oh we're fine! We've got multiple games in hand on some of these other sides!" and then I remember that we can't fucking win a game, so it doesn't really matter

We need to go nuts at goodison, make it unbearable for the opposition and refs.

our players will response, watched some of the spurs goals, disgusting. DCL and Richarlison going through motions, Gordon working harder than anyone 

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2 hours ago, dunlopp9987 said:

They're safe. With the excellent run they're on, I can't see them getting anywhere close to a relegation fight now.

I just keep looking at games played and thinking "oh we're fine! We've got multiple games in hand on some of these other sides!" and then I remember that we can't fucking win a game, so it doesn't really matter

I have written off all of our away games and I am not as confident as some appear to be about our home games. The bad news is our away form, our difficult fixture list of hard teams to play (April is horrible) and our inability to beat teams (even at home) that we should. The only good news I can find is that there might just be 3 teams in the league even worse than we are and that a record low points total might be enough to survive this year. I think Watford and Norwich are gone now and Leeds or Brentford might be even worse than we are and one of them could go too.

Low 30 points might be enough now.

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  • Romey 1878 changed the title to Ifs, buts and Maybes

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