Ifs, buts and Maybes

[Cornish Steve]

A couple of weeks ago, I laid out what I thought was our best chance of getting to 40 points and therefore, if history is any guide, to safety. At the time, we needed to secure 21 points from the remaining 17 games, and I laid out what I thought to be the most likely course. Maybe I can track our progress over time.

Current status: 39 points

Brentford (H): 3 points
Burnley (A): 3 points
Leeds (H): 3 points (actual: 3 points)
Newcastle (H): 3 points
Palace (H): 3 points
Watford (A): 3 points

Leicester (H): 1 point
Southampton (A): 1 point (actual: 0 points)
Wolves (H): 1 point

Arsenal (A): 0 points
Chelsea (H): 0 points
Leicester (A): 0 points
Liverpool (A): 0 points
Man City (H): 0 points
Man United (H): 0 points
Spurs (A): 0 points
West Ham (A): 0 points

[Matt]

My immediate fear and annoyance upon reading the title was "ffs don't you start, I'm only 39 this year!"  

[Bailey]

I dont think it will need anywhere near 40 points to stay up this season. 

[Hoof_It_Nev]

Can't see us picking up any points away from home this season now to be honest!

We'll be lucky to get anything against City and we're back to looking over our shoulders again 

[Cornish Steve]

6 hours ago, Matt said:

My immediate fear and annoyance upon reading the title was "ffs don't you start, I'm only 39 this year!"  

I could rename it "Just about surviving at 39" if you prefer...

[Matt]

32 minutes ago, Cornish Steve said:

I could rename it "Just about surviving at 39" if you prefer...

Although that's quite accurate too

 

[AlbanyNYToffee]

Good thread @Cornish Steve. Will be fun (assuming we pick up some points) to follow along in the coming weeks/months. I agree with Hoof every away game has to be considered 0 points for the sake of this exercise. Therefore we need to find 4 more points from our home games Leicester, Wolves, Chelsea, City, Utd. Yikes. Whether it will take the full 40 to survive who knows but the team better play like it will. 

[dunlopp9987]

As a few have mentioned, it is very Everton for us to drop points against the teams we should be taking all 3 from, and then come up with some big home wins against the top teams. Would not be surprised to see that happen again this season

[Palfy]

25 minutes ago, dunlopp9987 said:

As a few have mentioned, it is very Everton for us to drop points against the teams we should be taking all 3 from, and then come up with some big home wins against the top teams. Would not be surprised to see that happen again this season

I agree I think we have a better chance of beating Leicester and Man U at home than we have of beating Burnley away. I think we will stay up and won’t need the 40 points or 36 to do so and we will be pleasantly surprised at where some of our points come from, and will be equally devastated when we don’t get them from games we believe we should. 

[London Blue]

We have some really good coaches and manager, if they can get our players to play their way, which I believe they will over time then we will be fine.

What we have over other teams is firepower / goal threat, once DCL gets match fit and shakes the rust off we will score more goals.

We also have Doucuore and Godfrey to come back and Alli to integrate into the team all of which makes us stronger.

Ther key thing imho is to get the players playing the managers style of football and not panicking, easier said than done, but I see and expect improvement incrementally. 

[Shukes]

I’m more worried about getting to 50 to be honest. Don’t feel my body can make it supporting Everton!!!

[plaidharper]

We have to get to 30 points first...

[Gwlad]

I just think, "welcome to the house of fun" not. 

[MC11]

I think 34 keeps you up this season. We are dramatically relying on our home games 4 wins from the remaining games will keep us up IMO

[Haiku]

Burnley just beat Tottenham. Unfortunately it looks we need to put up a real fight to avoid 18th place.

[MikeO]

9 minutes ago, Haiku said:

Unfortunately it looks we need to put up a real fight to avoid 18th place.

I don't see it as unfortunate at all, no "fortune" involved; we should be staying up because we're good enough to do so.

But, if we were to get relegated it'd make zero impact on my support for the club; we've been top flight since before I was born, only Arsenal been there longer. A history most clubs would bite your arm off for.

[Gwlad]

Hard to contemplate relegation but we didn't choose, we were chosen so wouldn't make any difference to my support either.

[Palfy]

5 minutes ago, MikeO said:

we've been top flight since before I was born

That seems hard to believe

[MikeO]

Just now, Palfy said:

That seems hard to believe

I'm still younger than you old man....just.

[Palfy]

2 minutes ago, MikeO said:

I'm still younger than you old man....just.

[Cornish Steve]

At this point, I'd say the three teams relegated will be the three promoted teams. Frankly, we can't rely on how other teams perform: Our destiny is in our own hands.

[Hafnia]

I think Brentford will really go. They have played 3 more games than us. 
 

sky really enjoyed pulling out a mathematical possibility that we could end up in bottom 3 before playing Man City. Pricks. 

[duncanmckenzieismagic]

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/everton-premier-league-23191189

[Wiggytop]

Both Norwich and Leeds lost, a good start to the weekends fixtures for us so far. Not that we should be relying on other teams to drop points of course.

[dunlopp9987]

7 minutes ago, Wiggytop said:

Both Norwich and Leeds lost, a good start to the weekends fixtures for us so far. Not that we should be relying on other teams to drop points of course.

I agree in theory, but we're past the point of "not wanting to rely on other results." With our tough run of games coming up, we absolutely should be relying on others around us dropping points

[Wiggytop]

35 minutes ago, dunlopp9987 said:

I agree in theory, but we're past the point of "not wanting to rely on other results." With our tough run of games coming up, we absolutely will be relying on others around us dropping points

FIFY

[Gwlad]

Equally all those teams will be relying on us dropping points 

[dunlopp9987]

Big one today with Burnely and Leicester. Might find ourselves in the bottom three at the end of the day

[Romey 1878]

3 hours ago, dunlopp9987 said:

Big one today with Burnely and Leicester. Might find ourselves in the bottom three at the end of the day

Guess who's involved in the officiating team for this game...

[MikeO]

33 minutes ago, Romey 1878 said:

Guess who's involved in the officiating team for this game...

How has he not been stood down? That should've been the minimum action taken.