Ifs, buts and Maybes

[Palfy]

Still a very interesting question to pose from that article, personally I don't think any manager is safe at our club, if they go through a bad patch our fans are getting quicker and quicker to turn on and them, if never use to be quite like that when Moyes was manager, it's like they've fallen in love with the taste of blood. Rom I'm pleased you read that article from Matt and Steve's reply it was like they thought I had written it. Very angry people sometimes

[StevO]

Just now, Palfy said:

Still a very interesting question to pose from that article, personally I don't think any manager is safe at our club, if they go through a bad patch our fans are getting quicker and quicker to turn on and them, if never use to be quite like that when Moyes was manager, it's like they've fallen in love with the taste of blood. Rom I'm pleased you read that article from Matt and Steve's reply it was like they thought I had written it. Very angry people sometimes

I didn’t read the article. I just commented on your post.

[Palfy]

1 minute ago, StevO said:

I didn’t read the article. I just commented on your post.

Felt like you kicked me in the bollocks at the same time

[Romey 1878]

13 minutes ago, Palfy said:

Felt like you kicked me in the bollocks at the same time

Some people would pay for that.

[Palfy]

1 minute ago, Romey 1878 said:

Some people would pay for that.

One being my missus

[Matt]

6 hours ago, Palfy said:

Still a very interesting question to pose from that article, personally I don't think any manager is safe at our club, if they go through a bad patch our fans are getting quicker and quicker to turn on and them, if never use to be quite like that when Moyes was manager, it's like they've fallen in love with the taste of blood. Rom I'm pleased you read that article from Matt and Steve's reply it was like they thought I had written it. Very angry people sometimes

What article?

[Palfy]

15 hours ago, Matt said:

What article?

There was an article written that was suggesting that Everton fans won't stand for Dyche's brand of football for too long. 

[duncanmckenzieismagic]

https://www.hampshirelive.news/sport/football/football-news/southampton-premier-league-everton-prediction-8233540

[dunlopp9987]

25 minutes ago, duncanmckenzieismagic said:

https://www.hampshirelive.news/sport/football/football-news/southampton-premier-league-everton-prediction-8233540

Bleak

[MikeO]

38 minutes ago, duncanmckenzieismagic said:

https://www.hampshirelive.news/sport/football/football-news/southampton-premier-league-everton-prediction-8233540

Not sure we should bother playing matches anymore; just feed the oracle that is Opta all data on every club in August and they'll produce the final table. We all get relaxing weekends and no player ever gets injured. Sorted.

[Matt]

3 wins in 7 now under Dyche? 

[Formby]

42 minutes ago, Matt said:

3 wins in 7 now under Dyche? 

If he keeps that win ratio up for the next 11 games, we'll be safe. 

[Aidan]

Chelsea(a), spurs(h) and United(a) next. We needed those three today.

[dunlopp9987]

5 hours ago, Aidan said:

Chelsea(a), spurs(h) and United(a) next. We needed those three today.

Especially with Chelsea finding their form. Think we could grab a surprise 3 points from Spurs, they're so hot and cold lately

[Romey 1878]

I read before that we're on the same amount of points that we were at the same stage last season.

I think it's pointless (pun unintended) to look at games and talk about what points we'll get from them. There are so many unexpected results that you'll drive yourself mad. Who would have thought we'd beat Arsenal? Bournemouth beat the shite? Southampton beat Chelsea?

Leicester and Palace have been well and truly dragged into this fight now, so there are going to be points gained and dropped all over the place as sides scrap for survival.

Just go with the flow, one game at a time.

[Matt]

17 hours ago, Matt said:

3 wins in 7 now under Dyche? 

Just some further perspective, that's same amount of games won in 7 as the Lampard had in 20. 

[Hafnia]

Had a look at forests remaining fixtures…. If they don’t do anything in next 4 fixtures then they are going down I think.   Bournemouth were previously certs to go but have a chance as they fight.  Palace have zero momentum.

for me we need to get a result out of the spurs or Chelsea games 6 points out of next 4 games and a return of dcl and I will be confident providing the teams around us don’t do freak results. 

[Goodison Glory]

I reckon we need 3-4 more wins (of course anything can happen). The games we would likely get those in are probably going to be at Goodson, just given our home vs. Away record in recent history. So getting points of NCL, BOU, Fulham seem key with some hard fought away points at places like palace or Leicester.

Of course any number of permutations, but one thing is for sure, we can take 3 batterings in the next 3 games like we did against Arsenal or we will lose all that mental toughness that has been growing.

[Aidan]

15 hours ago, dunlopp9987 said:

Especially with Chelsea finding their form. Think we could grab a surprise 3 points from Spurs, they're so hot and cold lately

I'll take 3 points from those games right now

[dunlopp9987]

If Newcastle can hold on, this will have turned out to be a great weekend of results for us. Only Bournemouth picking up maximum points of the other 8 teams in the relegation scrap

[Aidan]

Wolves - Leeds (h), Forrest (a), Cheslea (h), Brentford (h), Leicester (a), Palace (h), Brighton (a), Villa (h), United (a), Everton (h), Arsenal (a)

Palace - Brighton (a), Arsenal (a), Leicester (h), Leeds (a), Southampton (a), Everton (h), Wolves (a), WHU (h), Spurs (a), Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a), Forrest (h)

Forrest - Newcastle (h), Wolves (h), Leeds (a), Villa (a), United (h), Liverpool (a), Brighton (h), Brentford (a), Southampton (h), Cheslea (a) Arsenal (h), Palace (a)

Everton - Cheslea (a), Spurs (h), United (a), Fulham (h), Palace (a), Newcastle (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (a), City (h), Wolves (a), Bournemouth (h)

Leicester - Brentford (a), Palace (a), Villa (h), Bournemouth (h), City (a), Wolves (h), Leeds (a), Everton (h), Fulham (a), Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), WHU (h)

WHU - City (a), Southampton (h), Newcastle (h), Fulham (a), Arsenal (h), Bournemouth (a), Liverpool (h), Palace (a), United (h), Brentford (a), Leeds (h), Leicester (a)

Bournemouth - Villa (a), Fulham (h), Brighton (h), Leicester (a), Spurs (a), WHU (h), Southampton (a), Leeds (h), Chelsea (h), Palace (a), United (h), Everton (a)

Leeds - Wolves (a), Arsenal (a), Forrest (h), Palace (h), Liverpool (h), Fulham (a), Leicester (h), Bournemouth (a), City (a), Newcastle (h), West Ham (a), Spurs (h) 

Southampton - Brentford (h), Spurs (h), WHU (a), City (h), Palace (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Newcastle (a), Forrest (a), Fulham (h), Brighton (a), Liverpool (h)

 

Those are the remaining fixtures, top 6 in bold, bottom 12 in italics. I'm going to predict the bottom 3 as:

18th will be a battle between West Ham / Bournemouth / Leicester / Palace / Everton. I'm going say Bournemouth. 

19th Leeds

20th Southampton

It's a really tight one this season. This time last year, there was only 5 teams battling it out. This year it's more like 9!

[Hafnia]

Casemeiro missing the United game against us due to suspension…. That’helps. 

[Matt]

1 hour ago, Aidan said:

Wolves - Leeds (h), Forrest (a), Cheslea (h), Brentford (h), Leicester (a), Palace (h), Brighton (a), Villa (h), United (a), Everton (h), Arsenal (a)

Palace - Brighton (a), Arsenal (a), Leicester (h), Leeds (a), Southampton (a), Everton (h), Wolves (a), WHU (h), Spurs (a), Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a), Forrest (h)

Forrest - Newcastle (h), Wolves (h), Leeds (a), Villa (a), United (h), Liverpool (a), Brighton (h), Brentford (a), Southampton (h), Cheslea (a) Arsenal (h), Palace (a)

Everton - Cheslea (a), Spurs (h), United (a), Fulham (h), Palace (a), Newcastle (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (a), City (h), Wolves (a), Bournemouth (h)

Leicester - Brentford (a), Palace (a), Villa (h), Bournemouth (h), City (a), Wolves (h), Leeds (a), Everton (h), Fulham (a), Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), WHU (h)

WHU - City (a), Southampton (h), Newcastle (h), Fulham (a), Arsenal (h), Bournemouth (a), Liverpool (h), Palace (a), United (h), Brentford (a), Leeds (h), Leicester (a)

Bournemouth - Villa (a), Fulham (h), Brighton (h), Leicester (a), Spurs (a), WHU (h), Southampton (a), Leeds (h), Chelsea (h), Palace (a), United (h), Everton (a)

Leeds - Wolves (a), Arsenal (a), Forrest (h), Palace (h), Liverpool (h), Fulham (a), Leicester (h), Bournemouth (a), City (a), Newcastle (h), West Ham (a), Spurs (h) 

Southampton - Brentford (h), Spurs (h), WHU (a), City (h), Palace (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Newcastle (a), Forrest (a), Fulham (h), Brighton (a), Liverpool (h)

 

Those are the remaining fixtures, top 6 in bold, bottom 12 in italics. I'm going to predict the bottom 3 as:

18th will be a battle between West Ham / Bournemouth / Leicester / Palace / Everton. I'm going say Bournemouth. 

19th Leeds

20th Southampton

It's a really tight one this season. This time last year, there was only 5 teams battling it out. This year it's more like 9!

So don't lose against any of them us the goal, nick a win where we can. Its not so impossible as pundits make out. 

[AlbanyNYToffee]

25 points from 27 matches leaves us at 35.19 points after 38 matches. 

Shite away 1 (0)
leeds home 3 (3)
Villa home 3 (0)
Arsenal away 0 (0)
Forest away 1 (1)
brentford home 1 (3)
chelsea away 0
Spurs home 0
utd away 0
fulham home 3
Palace away 1
Newcastle home 0 
leicester away 1
Brighton away 0
city home 0 
wolves away 1
bournemouth home 3

Original projected points: 36 points
Current projected points: 34 points

@Aidan breakdown of remaining fixtures is great so I'll add that here and keep it sorted by position in the table. 

Palace (12th on 27pts) - Brighton(a), Arsenal (a), Leicester (h), Leeds (a), Southampton (a), Everton (h), Wolves (a), WHU (h), Spurs (a), Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a), Forest (h)

Wolves (13th on 27pts) - Leeds (h), Forest (a), Cheslea (h), Brentford (h), Leicester (a), Palace (h), Brighton (a), Villa (h), United (a), Everton (h), Arsenal (a)

Forest (14th on 26pts) - Newcastle (h), Wolves (h), Leeds (a), Villa (a), United (h), Liverpool (a), Brighton (h), Brentford (a), Southampton (h), Cheslea (a) Arsenal (h), Palace (a)

Everton (15th on 25pts) - Cheslea (a), Spurs (h), United (a), Fulham (h), Palace (a), Newcastle (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (a), City (h), Wolves (a), Bournemouth (h)

Leicester (16th on 24pts) - Brentford (a), Palace (a), Villa (h), Bournemouth (h), City (a), Wolves (h), Leeds (a), Everton (h), Fulham (a), Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), WHU (h)

WHU (17th on 24pts) - City (a), Southampton (h), Newcastle (h), Fulham (a), Arsenal (h), Bournemouth (a), Liverpool (h), Palace (a), United (h), Brentford (a), Leeds (h), Leicester (a)

Bournemouth (18th on 24pts) - Villa (a), Fulham (h), Brighton (h), Leicester (a), Spurs (a), WHU (h), Southampton (a), Leeds (h), Chelsea (h), Palace (a), United (h), Everton (a)

Leeds (19th on 23pts) - Wolves (a), Arsenal (a), Forest (h), Palace (h), Liverpool (h), Fulham (a), Leicester (h), Bournemouth (a), City (a), Newcastle (h), West Ham (a), Spurs (h) 

Southampton (20th on 22pts) - Brentford (h), Spurs (h), WHU (a), City (h), Palace (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Newcastle (a), Forest (a), Fulham (h), Brighton (a), Liverpool (h)

[Cornish Steve]

On 11/03/2023 at 23:50, RPG said:

However we do it, I think we need at least 3 points from the next 3 games. That would put us on 28 points with 8 games to play. There have been some surprise results recently - Chelsea losing at home to Soton and Bournemouth beating the other lot yesterday to name just two. I think we are going to need an 'unexpected' win, maybe v Spurs but I do feel we need to win at least 4 of our last 11 games and we have some very tricky fixtures.

We are not out of the woods yet but things are looking much better (or less bad) than they were 7 games ago.

Let me put your final statement a different way: If all the teams below us win their games in hand, we are bottom of the table. It sounds worse than it is, but the outcome is not yet in our own hands.

[MikeO]

2 minutes ago, Cornish Steve said:

Let me put your final statement a different way: If all the teams below us win their games in hand, we are bottom of the table. It sounds worse than it is, but the outcome is not yet in our own hands.

Of course it is (repeating myself again); we have 33 points left to play for so a potential final total of 58, you think that number will see us relegated?

If the teams below us win their remaining games then mid-table clubs will be further sucked in.

Totally in our hands still.

[Hafnia]

3 hours ago, MikeO said:

Of course it is (repeating myself again); we have 33 points left to play for so a potential final total of 58, you think that number will see us relegated?

If the teams below us win their remaining games then mid-table clubs will be further sucked in.

Totally in our hands still.

, the best indicator is run rate and that is slightly in our favour at the moment vs teams around us. 

the likes of Leicester, West Ham and palace have a big disconnect with the team and manager and the atmosphere in those clubs does not seem good. 

it’s all about likelihood, right now it feels like we have momentum on our side. A win against either spurs or Chelsea would be huge. 

[MikeO]

22 minutes ago, Hafnia said:

, the best indicator is run rate and that is slightly in our favour at the moment vs teams around us. 

the likes of Leicester, West Ham and palace have a big disconnect with the team and manager and the atmosphere in those clubs does not seem good. 

it’s all about likelihood, right now it feels like we have momentum on our side. A win against either spurs or Chelsea would be huge. 

No argument with any of that, just have one with the daft statement that it's out of our hands.

[Hafnia]

1 hour ago, MikeO said:

No argument with any of that, just have one with the daft statement that it's out of our hands.

It’s not out of our hands at all quite correct. It’s only out of our hands when we rely on other teams losing. 
 

obviously we hope the teams around us lose but we need to do our bit. 

[Palfy]

6 hours ago, RPG said:

It would be impossible for all the teams below us to win their games in hand as some of these games are against each other I think. But yes, if we had only played 25 games (and not got the 4 points from the last 2 games) then we would be in a mess. But we have got the 4 points, we are playing much better, DCL, Garner, Patterson and even Townsend are nearly fit again so there is reason for cautious optimism I think.

Every team will be thinking the same positive thoughts, and will know doubt feel they are in a better position than us.