Ifs, buts and Maybes

[RuffRob]

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/sport/football/leeds-united/predictions-computer-forecasts-how-premier-league-survival-fight-will-unfold-for-leeds-united-everton-west-ham-wolves-and-nottingham-forest-4026047

Statistically we are currently scheduled to be closer to rock bottom of the table than safety. The stark reality of our situation. My guess is that the super computer is based mainly on form and previous performance stats rather than be based on what will be the reality of the aftermath threadbare squad after January transfer window.

I do feel losing players rather than recruiting players has all but condemned us.  

 

[Wall Writer]

The next few weeks, especially the next two matches, will tell us whether we have a chance or not of staying up. 

I think we need 10 points from the next 5/6 games to have any chance. Our run in after that doesn't look too easy and then we have Wolves and Bournemouth as the final two games of the season, which could well turn out to be deciders. 

[Bailey]

16 hours ago, Wall Writer said:

This thought crossed my mind towards the end of the match. And sure, two weeks ago, 3 points, you take that. But I agree with what Haf says above. The performance tonight shows that the Arsenal game might well have been a one off rather than a sign of things turning around.

I don't think it was as far away as it may have looked on the pitch.

Unfortunately I think Liverpool were back to / near to their best and we just weren't quite as sharp as the Arsenal game. Liverpool could have beaten any team in the league with that performance IMO.

The way in which that goal went in, knocked us back a lot and then it was quite quickly downhill from there which happens when you try and chase a game away at one of the best teams in the league away from home. If we score from that corner, it probably pans out much differently, albeit Liverpool clearly deserved to win.

I'm am not too worried about that game in isolation but I will be if it becomes the norm!

[RuffRob]

45 minutes ago, Wall Writer said:

The next few weeks, especially the next two matches, will tell us whether we have a chance or not of staying up. 

I think we need 10 points from the next 5/6 games to have any chance. Our run in after that doesn't look too easy and then we have Wolves and Bournemouth as the final two games of the season, which could well turn out to be deciders. 

I agree, 10 points over then next 6-7 games is a must to realistically give us a fighting chance on the running. Leeds, Villa  Brentford and Spurs at home and Forest, Arsenal and Chelsea away. I also think 3 of these points need to be from Leeds at the weekend.

Nothing looks easy with this squad.

 

 

 

[AlbanyNYToffee]

18 points from 22 matches leaves us at 31.09 points after 38 matches. 

Shite away 1 (0)
leeds home 3
Villa home 3
Arsenal away 0 
Forest away 1
brentford home 1
chelsea away 0
Spurs home 0
utd away 0
fulham home 3
Palace away 1
Newcastle home 0 
leicester away 1
Brighton away 0
city home 0 
wolves away 1
bournemouth home 3

Original projected points: 36 points
Current projected points: 35 points

[Gwlad]

Fulham 1

Bournemouth 1 - they likely will be fighting for survival or their last hurrah or we will both be already relegated. 

[AlbanyNYToffee]

2 hours ago, RPG said:

One game at a time but the next game, v Leeds, is a real 6 pointer. Anything less than 3 points is going to leave us needing another couple of 'Arsenal' results to stay up.

What feels like decades ago when we were comfortably mid-table with top 6 aspirations I was always beating the drum in terms of how many points we could pick up against the big 6. Now the opposite is true. We could have avoided the stress last year and this year if we just took care of business against the crap teams. 

21-22: Southampton 15th - W 3-1 and L 2-0 ; Leeds 17th - D 2-2 and W 3-0; Burnley 18th - W 3-1 and L 3-2; Watford 19th - L 5-2 and D 0-0; Norwich 20th - W 2-0 and L 2-1. 
14 points in 10 games. 4-2-4.

22-23: Wolves 15th - L 2-1; West Ham 16th - W 1-0 and L 2-0; Leeds 17th - D 1-1; Bournemouth 19th - L 3-0; Southampton 20th - W 2-1 and L 2-1.
Absolutely horrid. This season we've played 7 games against teams 15th-20th and taken just 7 points. 2-1-4.

[dunlopp9987]

I was out and about so couldn't watch the game, saw the final score and should've been elated, but then saw that both Bournemouth and Soton won and went right back to being a miserable Everton supporter. 

We can't have anything nice, can we. 

[MikeO]

Palace look like they might be the classic "team appearing comfortable making a late run for relegation". 

Only managed three points in seven games this year thus far.

[Hafnia]

8 hours ago, MikeO said:

Palace look like they might be the classic "team appearing comfortable making a late run for relegation". 

Only managed three points in seven games this year thus far.

Funny team, give the impression they are solid mid table side.

we need to bring a few sides in to the mix. Their players will go to a place they may not like or be able to deal with. 

[Wiggytop]

It’s very open, 10 points separate the bottom ten teams, we seem to be building some momentum and new found confidence, I don’t think under FL we would have taken any points from the last three games. 3 more on Saturday will add to that and make other teams begin to feel threatened, something that wasn’t happening under FL, so far it looks like we made the right decision in changing manager.

[Palfy]

16 hours ago, dunlopp9987 said:

I was out and about so couldn't watch the game, saw the final score and should've been elated, but then saw that both Bournemouth and Soton won and went right back to being a miserable Everton supporter. 

We can't have anything nice, can we. 

We've got you mate that's nice to have

[Matt]

18 hours ago, MikeO said:

Palace look like they might be the classic "team appearing comfortable making a late run for relegation". 

Only managed three points in seven games this year thus far.

Palace have always been a weird team to me. Not really good enough for the PL but too good for the Championship. About time they tried themselves in the latter I think...

[Wall Writer]

Leicester and West Ham both lost today, dragging them deeper into the relegation battle!

(Good news for a team on the up like Everton )

 

[Romey 1878]

1 hour ago, Matt said:

Palace have always been a weird team to me. Not really good enough for the PL but too good for the Championship. About time they tried themselves in the latter I think...

More London sides can fuck off. There are too many of them for my liking .

[Btay]

The Arsenal away game will be tricky and I don’t expect us to get anything from that. Apart from that though we have a run of games that we should be looking to pick up a good amount of points. A win against Villa and we will hopefully be starting to look up the table.

I don’t think I can handle another season like this next year though if we do manage safety this year.

[FairWooney]

Key is that we keep up the home form and get as many points as possible from those.

Villa, Brentford, Fulham and Bournemouth all need to be wins.

I reckon we can get 2 points at least out of Spurs,  Newcastle and City

That would put us on 36.  Hopefully we can get a win from one of the remaining away games and a couple of draws.  Palace, Leicester, Forest and Wolves are the best hopes at a win.  Chelsea not a bad chance of getting something the way they're playing.

[Goodison Glory]

We absolutely cannot lose to Forest or Wolves. I'd take the most boring draw possible in those games. Wins would be nice but we can't be shitting the bed like we did under FL against relegation teams. Every one of them is a 6 pointer. Try and win any home game...but can't lose those two away games.

[Wall Writer]

Let me hit you all with some maths. To get to 40 pts with our remaining games we need an average of about 1.27 pts per game.

If we'd averaged that up to now, we'd be somewhere around 11th (not considering points taken from other teams), and be on to finish the season with about 48 pts.

Our season average so far is 0.91 pts per game which, if continued, would see us end up with 34/35 points.

Removing SD's matches from that, our average under FL was 0.75 pts per game, which could have seen us finish with a measly 28 pts.

Our average since Sean Dyche has come in is 2 pts per game, which if continued would see us finish with 51 points. Whilst if he had been appointed at the start of the season and kept up that form, would have us now pushing Spurs out of the last Champions League spot.

I'm gonna hold that last statement in mind whilst you contemplate the meaning of all this and I go and find some more straws to clutch.

 

[Romey 1878]

2 minutes ago, Wall Writer said:

Let me hit you all with some maths. To get to 40 pts with our remaining games we need an average of about 1.27 pts per game.

If we'd averaged that up to now, we'd be somewhere around 11th (not considering points taken from other teams), and be on to finish the season with about 48 pts.

Our season average so far is 0.91 pts per game which, if continued, would see us end up with 34/35 points.

Removing SD's matches from that, our average under FL was 0.75 pts per game, which could have seen us finish with a measly 28 pts.

Our average since Sean Dyche has come in is 2 pts per game, which if continued would see us finish with 51 points. Whilst if he had been appointed at the start of the season and kept up that form, would have us now pushing Spurs out of the last Champions League spot.

I'm gonna hold that last statement in mind whilst you contemplate the meaning of all this and I go and find some more straws to clutch.

 

I think the only appropriate response to this is: twat.

[MikeO]

17 minutes ago, Romey 1878 said:

I think the only appropriate response to this is: twat.

Which mysteriously rhymes with stat....spooky

[Goodison Glory]

And it also rhymes with nonsense. Oh wait it doesn't. 

[StevO]

I’ve said this a few times, and the results/form of many teams in the bottom half doesn’t change my mind, but I think 36 points will be enough to stay up this year. That said, if we could get three points from Villa we are moving fast in the right direction. 

[Btay]

Growing more confident that we will stay in the league. Hopefully these recent results under Dyche continue & we can finally get some consistency. If by the end of the season we have a points return under Dyche that would equate to around 10th (over a full season) I’ll be even more optimistic.

We still need to be taking it 1 game at a time.

[Romey 1878]

40 minutes ago, Btay said:

Growing more confident that we will stay in the league. Hopefully these recent results under Dyche continue & we can finally get some consistency. If by the end of the season we have a points return under Dyche that would equate to around 10th (over a full season) I’ll be even more optimistic.

We still need to be taking it 1 game at a time.

We’re getting Europa League football in Goodison’s last season.

[AlbanyNYToffee]

21 points from 23 matches leaves us at 34.70 points after 38 matches. 

Shite away 1 (0)
leeds home 3 (3)
Villa home 3
Arsenal away 0 
Forest away 1
brentford home 1
chelsea away 0
Spurs home 0
utd away 0
fulham home 3
Palace away 1
Newcastle home 0 
leicester away 1
Brighton away 0
city home 0 
wolves away 1
bournemouth home 3

Original projected points: 36 points
Current projected points: 35 points

[Elston Gunnn]

Need 7 points from next 4 matches, starting tomorrow with Villa.  That would give us 28 points after 27 matches, and a reasonable shot at 38-40. Only 4-5 points from next 4, danger zone.  Only 1-2, we’re doomed.

Can’t drop points at home to Villa.  Have to win tomorrow.

[Haiku]

22 minutes ago, Elston Gunnn said:

Need 7 points from next 4 matches, starting tomorrow with Villa.  That would give us 28 points after 27 matches, and a reasonable shot at 38-40. Only 4-5 points from next 4, danger zone.  Only 1-2, we’re doomed.

Can’t drop points at home to Villa.  Have to win tomorrow.

7 points in 4 matches (1.75 ppm) and then we only need 12 in 11 games (1.1 ppm)? Why are the following four matches so important?!

[Elston Gunnn]

2 hours ago, Haiku said:

7 points in 4 matches (1.75 ppm) and then we only need 12 in 11 games (1.1 ppm)? Why are the following four matches so important?!

Fair point, but I see 3 of the next 4 as among our better opportunities, with 2 at home and 1 away v. “beatable” opponents.

Beyond these next 4, our next 3 include away to Chelsea and ManU and home to Spurs.  I don’t like our chances to pick up more than 1-2, at most, from those 3.

Maybe we’ll get on a roll, though with DCL’s status regularly doubtful, I doubt we can score many goals.  I worry that our fate may come down to the season’s final 2 matches, away to Wolves and home to Bournemouth, both possibly/probably “6 pointers.”

We need points now.

[Goodison Glory]

2 hours ago, Haiku said:

7 points in 4 matches (1.75 ppm) and then we only need 12 in 11 games (1.1 ppm)? Why are the following four matches so important?!

I'd imagine it's because pragmatically, we are going to get diddly squat from the three after that. Not getting 7pts from the next SEVEN games would make things incredibly difficult.